An Intervention Analysis of the Behavior of the Iranian Real Gross Domestic Product: 1959-2001

The Iranian real gross domestic product in the period of 1338-1380 reveals a relatively high degree of instability. Some of this instability almost certainly arises because of external shocks to the economy. This paper focuses on three shocks, or interventions, which seems to have had particularly significant impacts on the Iranian economy. These are the political upheavals of mid 1350’s, the 1360 -68 War, and the oil shock and some policy reversals of early 1370’s. We construct a time series model for the purpose of intervention analysis and use this model to calculate the impact on the Iranian economy of each and every of these interventions.