Demand Modelling of Aerial Trips in Iran

In recent years, there has been much greater attention given to planning and development in Iran, due to increasing environmental, financial and social factors. In particular, a very important subject area within this field is that of aviation and more specifically; passenger transport by air. There has been a considerable research effort that has resulted in the collection of a large amount of data on this topic. However, despite this massive information-gathering exercise, the required statistical analyses and the matter of mathematical modeling have been neglected, meaning that conclusions and improvements in future practice have not been drawn from the extensive data. This paper intends to rectify this, by presenting a mathematical model that can predict the demand for aerial trips in Iran. The model is based on a process according to which the determined social and economic transportation system variables are connected to the demand for transport by air. To calibrate the model, the regression method has been used, based on data that was collected from several Iranian cities.