Predicting discharge potential of upper Thal Doab, Indus basin for irrigation through numerical groundwater flow modeling

Groundwater is playing an important role in sustainability of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan by contributing about 40% in total water resources of the country. To ascertain the present status of the aquifer in the Upper Thal Doab area, a groundwater modeling using Visual MODFLOW 2011.1 has been executed. Steady-state model was calibrated for the year 1984 and transient state model was simulated up to predictive period of 2025. The transient simulation results indicate stability of the aquifer with minor difference between water flowing into and out of the aquifer. During 1984 to 2025 it has been observed that the total water inflows increased from 347.00 to 3029.14 BCM (Billion Cubic Meter) and total discharges from 347.00 to 3029.29 BCM, which shows stability of the total groundwater storages of the aquifer. However, if the pumpage increases with this rate, there are chances that groundwater of the area will deteriorate in future. This study provides a base for timely formation of management strategies for the reasonable utilization and management of groundwater resources in the area.