Sensitivity Analysis of Effective Factors in Hillslopes Instability; A Case Study of Javanrud Region, Kermanshah Province

Evaluating the factors affecting the mass movement and recognizing the regions sensitive to landslide are vital for planning, performing the construction projects, and providing proper management solutions in sensitive regions. The aim of the present study was to investigate the stability of the hillslope using the Stability Index Mapping (SINMAP) model to recognize the most important factor in causing the landslide by one-time sensitivity analysis method. In the experimental research, the studied area included several watersheds in Javanrud, Kermanshah Province, Iran. Sensitivity analysis was performed for slope angle, internal friction angle, depth of soil, hydraulic conductivity, saturated storage ratio and rainfall. Accordingly, each of the mentioned parameters was changed by 10% to 75% compared to their initial value, assuming that other parameters remain constant. Then, the safety factor (FS) for each variation and the ratio of safety factor variations to initial FS were calculated.
Findings: The slope angle was the most important effective factor in causing the landslide in this region. The Second and the third factors were internal friction angle and saturated storage ratio, respectively. The slope angle is the most important factor in causing the instability in all hillslopes, as where this factor is reduced by 20%, FS initial value increased by twice. After slope angle, soil internal friction angle has the highest importance, which shows a direct relationship with factor of safety. It means that, as this angle increase, stability of the hillslopes will also increase