مجله سیاست گذاری اقتصادی
سال نهم شماره 17 (بهار و تابستان 1396)

This study is concerned with calculation of Iran's bilateral trade costs and the major factors affecting them. What is targetted, indeed, is the bilateral trade of the country with developed and developing countries. The results indicate that, over the period of 1995-2010, the weighted average of the trade costs with developed and developing partners declined for 1% and 30% respectively.This reduction, however, was greater for China and Turkey, among developing countries, and for Japan and Spain, among developed countries. Based on the estimated regression, such variables as the bilateral trade costs with distance, the bilateral tariff rate and the lag of bilateral trade tariffs are positively related whereas island and adjacency variables have opposite effects on Iran's bilateral trade costs. Finally, based on the results, it is sugggested that, when planning economic ties, special attention should be paid to trade costs as a significant factor.

The main aim of this study is to measure direct and indirect income effects of cash subsidies on producing activities, factors of production and institutions’ incomes with the focus on rural and urban household income. An assessment is conducted in the social accounting matrix model using the fixed price multiplier matrix in which the relationship between income injection and income distribution policies is taken into account. Therefore, the 2006 social accounting matrix (prepared by Majlis Research Center in 2012), the population and housing census of Iran and subsidies for a fixed monthly payment are employed as the main data resources. The results show that the income impact of this policy on urban households is stronger than that on rural households. Moreover, service, agriculture, home appliances, food and retail sail sectors get the greatest influence of the policy.

Most economic studies seek to find what economic models, whether classical, old Keynesian or New Keynesian, can explain market failures. One of the criticisms related to new Keynesian models is that these models failed to predict the crisis of 2008. This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady-state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policies in case of an economic crisis. Also, in this paper, the existence of multiple steady-state equilibria is explained by search and recruiting costs and their share in employment. This model is used to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high rate of unemployment in the economy, induced by the lowering expectations of the economic agents in the stock market about asset prices. The results of the study for Iran’s economy, as the extended model of Farmer (2009), shows the labor search model is useful to evaluate the performance of asset markets when the stock market is faced with uncertainty. Also, an answer is provided to the question “Can fiscal policies help us to get out of the crisis?”.

Up to now, numerous tax bases with different rates have been identified in Iran's economy. The questions are “Are these rates optimal?” and “Is it possible to determine an average optimal rate in a way that it would bring greater growth and prosperity?”. In the present study, we seek to determine Iran's optimal tax rates using time series data in the years 1978-2014, a dynamic optimal control approach, and the maximum principle.
According to the findings, the main factors affecting the optimal tax rate include the ratio of expenditures of the private sector to the public sector, the ratio of investment in the public sector to the private sector, depreciation rate, rate of time preference, elasticity of production function to the investment in the private sector and the public sector, and technical progress. Among the above factors, the ratio of expenditures of the private sector to the public sector has a negative effect, and the ratio of investment in the public sector to the private sector has a positive effect on the optimal tax rate. The other variables have no significant effect on the optimal tax rate. In addition, the optimal tax rate is 20 percent.
Since there are several tax bases in Iran, average tax rates should be close to the optimal rate. Changes in tax rates should be according to the economic conditions of boom and bust. In this regard, finding new tax bases to reduce the negative effects of changes in tax rates is very important.

All forms of business contain elements of risk, but, when it comes to the international trade, the risk profile takes up a new dimension. Payment or non-payment delay of exported goods arises from two main types of risk, political and commercial risks. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of political and commercial risks of importing countries as well as the impact of governmental supporting policies for export credit insurance on Iran's non-oil exports to the main importing countries. Hence, a set of panel data was used on Iran’s non-oil export to 30 main export destinations. Also, statistics of political, financial and economic risk indices from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period 1384 to 1391 were used to evaluate a gravity model.
Two static and dynamic algorithms of the gravity model were used. The static algorithm included static and Mundlak models for separating short-term and long-term effects. The random effects and the system-generalized method of moments (SGMM) approaches were applied to evaluate the static and dynamic models respectively. The results showed the political risk of importing countries has had a positive impact on Iran's non-oil exports in long term. In contrast, the commercial risks, namely economic risks and financial risks, have had a negative impact on Iran's non-oil export.
The study also showed the government has received taxes. This could have a positive effect on the non-oil exports of the country if the government granted subsidies to exporters through export credit insurance policies.

The chronic budget deficits and dominance of government fiscal status on monetary sector are the characteristics of Iran’s economy after the revolution. Based on the economic literature, these characteristics explain the continuous and considerable variations of money supply in the country. Using the VARX model, this paper aims at the impact of budget deficits structure on the liquidity based on the central bank reaction function during the period of 1979-2010. The results indicate that changes in the budget deficits and liquidity are not necessarily in the same direction. Increasing the operating budget deficits by the government, which indicates its current operations, leads to an increase in the budget deficits and liquidity. However, the changes in net acquisition of nonfinancial assets, which is mainly influenced by the oil market, despite the change of the budget deficits, do not affect liquidity.
Therefore, the operating budget deficits, and not necessarily the budget deficits or the net acquisition of nonfinancial assets, are a spur for liquidity changes in the short run and long run. Also, the oil market disturbances have no permanent effects on liquidity by themselves. Then, budget reforms based on small and flexible operating budget deficits, cyclical balanced operating budget deficits and reduction of the dominance of budget on the banking system must be pursued for to successfully curb the inflation.

The main objective of this study is to answer the question whether the elimination of bread subsidies has had any effect on high- and low-income groups in same manner? The study was done using the annual data from 1997 to 2014 for low- and high-income groups by estimating the AIDS demand function and the seemingly unrelated (SUR) equation system. The results show that bread is a low-elasticity and necessary commodity for both low-income and high-income groups, such that, by a 100-percent increase in bread price, low-income and high-income groups lower their demands by 48 percent and 25 percent respectively. The study of cross-elasticity for low-income groups shows grains as an alternative for bread, flour and noodles as almost independent food stuffs, and take-out foods as complementary to bread. Also, the cross elasticity of high-income groups shows that grains and take-out foods are alternatives to bread, while flour and noodles are almost independent of bread. It is understood from the other results of the research that low-income group are more sensitive to increased price of grains, flour and noodles.

Calculation of symmetric input-output tables is based on two assumptions: fixed structure of product sales and product technology assumptions. The first assumption guarantees the non-negative elements in the table but lacks an acceptable theoretical basis. On the other hand, the second assumption has an acceptable theoretical basis; that is, the emergence of some negative elements is inevitable. These negative elements should be removed using other methods. This issue raises a fundamental question of whether the choice of different technology assumptions in calculating symmetric table has any effect on the bias of random production multipliers or not. Considering the compiler's approach, we have used two IOTs with different technology assumptions for measuring the bias ofrandom production multipliers. Using Monte Carlo simulation for creating samples in 10, 1000, and 10000 sizes, the overall findings show the choice of technology assumptions has an effect on the bias of random production multipliers. Also, the findings of the present study have an important implication for the compilers; that not only product technology assumption is supported by a good theoretical foundation but also the bias of calculated random production multipliers is smaller than the bias of random production multipliers which are estimated based on the fixed structure of product sales.

The new structural economics attempts to reconstruct the path of successful countries so as for it to be practical and achievable for other developing countries. The framework of GIF is offered here for this purpose. To apply this framework for Iranian economic development, the economic structure of the country is studied from the new structural economic perspective. The results show a distance of Iran from the optimal structure in successful countries. In this regard, Iran can move to reforms by benchmarking those countries. In the next step of the study, China, India, Indonesia and Turkey are selected as the criteria for comparisons. Then, through studying their exports and active sectors over a period of 19 years, their leading sectors are identified. As many as 25 leading goods groups are achieved for those countries, of which 14 are selected as first-priority and 11 as high-tech goods groups for foreign investment to participate in the next stages of industrial upgrading according to Iranian level of technology and advantages. Studies show the status of these 25 goods groups in Iranian exports is inappropriate so that their total share in exports is 7.7 percent, while the rate for China, India, Indonesia and Turkey is 30, 43, 19 and 41 percent respectively. Also, as another GIF steps, an analysis is performed of the import structure and the domestic sectors that are active in this regard.

Nowadays, excessive exploitation of resources, on the one hand, and pollution, wastes and waste production and consumption, on the other hand, have posed major obstacles to the development of countries. Among the risks that have recently attracted much attention, one can refer to increasing greenhouse gases, ozone destruction, melting of polar ice, loss of species, and erosion of agricultural land. The key cause of the depletion of natural resources, emissions, and environmental degradation is overconsumption, which must be managed for the sake of sustainable development. In this paper, we investigate the effect of consumption on sustainable development based on the pattern proposed by Lambert (1985) and Stokey (1998). To achieve this purpose, an optimal control model has been used that focuses on the interaction between the consumer’s behavior and environmental degradation. In order to solve the model in a numerical manner, a risk-averse utility function is taken into account, and the model is optimized in accordance to the principle of maximum Pentryagyn to find the optimal values of consumption and emissions studied in stable conditions. The model parameters are set using the calibration procedure, and, finally, the results of changing the parameters are evaluated by scenarios. After the model is solved, the optimal path of the variables and the way to achieve the optimal points in a steady state are determined. The results are analyzed in a phase diagram. Showing high consumption and emission values vis a vis the optimal situation in Iran, the results suggest that Iran is getting far from the optimal sustainable state. This is because of the lack of sustainability of consumption patterns in Iran.