فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال پنجم شماره 4 (پیاپی 19، زمستان 1397)

On one hand, countries dependent on oil revenue have reached the conclusion that oil cannot be a reliable source of income and the oil dependent economy has become a major challenge for oil-exporting countries. On the other hand, in recent years tourism has become one of the most dynamic sectors of global economy and income from different capacities of the tourism industry is sought to replace the income from oil sales. Medical tourism is one of the important areas of the tourism industry. In this study, the effect of institutional indicators on medical tourism in Iran have been investigated using an optimization approach. The results of the study indicate that, Improvement in institutional quality index, gross fixed capital investment in public and private hospitals, gross fixed capital in tourism services, as well as an increase in the number of service providers to medical tourists, including general practitioners and specialists, and an increase in real effective exchange rates in Iran has led to an increase in the attraction of medical tourists to the country.

In optimizing the portfolio, the main issue is the optimal selection of assets that can be bought with a certain amount of money. Although risk minimizing and revenue maximizing on investment seems simple, but in practice several approaches have been proposed for an optimal portfolio. In 1950, Harry Marquitz introduced his model in which proposed the optimization of the asset basket as a quadratic programing model with the aim of minimizing the variance of the asset set, provided that the expected return equals a constant value. In this research, the problem of three-objective optimization (i.e., maximizing stock returns, minimizing its risk and the third objective function, namely minimizing the number of assets) has been studied. Accordingly, investors, with admission a small amount of risk and a similar amount of return, will choose a basket of less assets. For this purpose, at first, genetic algorithms and multi- Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm were used to estimate the two-objective model of minimum variance and maximum return for better algorithm identification. Then, with regard to the better performance of the algorithm, this algorithm was used to estimate the three-objective model for maximizing stock returns, minimizing risk, and minimizing the number of assets.

The countercyclical monetary policy is a policy that economists recommend to decrease the economic fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to answer the question of how the monetary policy behavior in Iran's economy was and how it should be. To find the right answers, by using a Markov-Switching model, shown that behavior of monetary policy in the Iran during 1991 to 2015 was mainly procyclical.Then, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, according to the structure of the economy, is considered. Then, optimal monetary policy has been calculated in terms of fiscal domination and institutional quality over a business cycle and calibrated using equilibrium parameters. The results show that the optimal monetary policy over the business cycle, monetary policy is counter-cyclical. The optimal monetary policy coefficient during the business cycle decreases with decreasing institutional quality and increased fiscal domination. Also, if the policymaker's goal is only to stabilize inflation, the optimal monetary policy is acycle. In addition, when a completely independent monetary policy is assumed, the optimal policy coefficient takes the highest value compared to other assumed conditions.

The development of non-oil exports as a factor in crossing the oil economy and utilizating unused capacities of the country's economy, such as active labor force, is always a matter for the policy makers of the country. The requirements for expansion of non-oil exports are identificating effective factors on it, and understanding of how they are effective on non-oil exports of the country. In this paper, using the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) and seasonal data through 1376 to 1394, the nonlinear effects of real exchange rate variables, the value added of the industry and mining sector Non-oil exports and the hidden factor, the structural institutional quality which is consists of six indicators, on non-oil exports of Iran has been modeled. The results denote the positive symmetric effects of the structural institutional quality and the non-oil exports on increasing non-oil exports, so that this positive affects have been increasing over time. Based on the results, the final effect of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports of the country depends on the conditions of the depression and prosperity of the economy and can be asymmetrically positive or negative. Finally, the effect of the growth of the country's value added on non-oil exports is positive in all period studied, with the difference that these symmetric effects are more during periods of economic prosperity and less during the recession periods.

With respect to the rapid development of the road transport industry, improving safety and valuing accidents have become an essential issue in public policy. Over the past few decades, studies based on the estimation of valuing statistical life have played a unique role in the cost-benefit estimations of investment in the transport sector. In this regard, this study has been conducted using the stated choice method and the mixed logit model to examine the willingness to pay and the value of statistical life among the Tabriz drivers. The research data were collected through a questionnaire from 300 people who travel daily in the city for various reasons. The statistical value of life and injury for Tabriz city was 18663384 and 135005 Tomans respectively. According to the results, investing in road safety improvement projects is necessary to reduce casualties and injuries.

In this Paper, we examined the upside and downside spillover effects between exchange rates, crude oil prices, gold prices and Tehran Stock Exchange. Due to special charachteristics of financial data, we used copula methods to assess correlation between returns of the markets and using VaR and CoVaR approachs we examined the risk spillovers between markets. Our data spans from 2006-07-19 to 2017-03-21.Results show that the correlations between returns of the exchange rates with the stock market and the crude oil prices with the exchange rates were symmetric but the correlations between returns of the gold prices with the stock market and crude oil prices with stock market were asymmetric and strong in the upper tails.CoVaR analysis shows that risk spillover effects between stock market and gold prices are stronger than the other variables. The relationship between exchange rates and oil prices with stock market are considered to be mostly between returns but there are some risk spillovers too. In most cases upper risk spillovers are stronger than lower ones.

The literature on energy economics states a rebound effect of improving energy efficiency. Considering the fact that existing rebound effect causes the electricity saving (due to the improvement of the efficiency of consumer electric appliances in the residential sector) be less than expected, therefore, the present paper, based on the time series data of 1357-1395, uses linear and nonlinear (threshold) models to estimate the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in different scenarios. The results of linear model show that the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in Iran during the period 1357-1395 is on average 81%. The results of the other model (threshold model), taking into account the two variables of Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and cooling degree days (CDD) as threshold variables, show that decrease in GDP per capita and increase in cooling degree days will increase the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption.

According to statistics and evidence from the World Terrorist Database on the Terrorism Situation in the World and in the Mine Region, since 2004, the incidence of terrorist acts in the world and in this region has risen sharply. Governments try to increase the level of social security in the country by increasing their public expenditures, thereby reducing the crime and the terrorist acts. The purpose of this study was to investigate the dynamic relationship between public expenditures with crime and terrorism in MENA countries from 2003 to 2016 using the P-VAR approach. The results of the estimated model show that the existence of crime and terrorism has a positive dynamic effect on the general expenditures of the MENA countries. Also, the results of the analysis of variance decomposition indicate that the response to public expenditures varies by level of criminal activity and terrorism, so that criminal activity against terrorist activities has a greater contribution to the variance in these costs. In order to examine the dynamics of the model variables, IRF indicate that the shock caused by public expenditures has had a decreasing effect on crime, but the effects of this shock on terrorist attacks are meaningless, and this issue of inappropriate public spending In order to reduce the number of terrorist attacks in the countries of the MENA countries.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinant of educational cost in micro level (I.e. household). These determinants are categorized in four levels: household characteristics, child characteristics, head characteristics and mother characteristics. The effect of each one is estimated thorough a censored Tobit model for 2016 Iran household survey. The reason of model selection is for reporting zero cost in some cases. The result shows that urban residency and having girl child (versus boy) are context factors that increase expenditure on education. Sexuality of household head is the other important can increase income of family and so the educational costs. And finally, analyzing mother and head of the family shows that transition of financial capital to child is take place dominantly thorough head (greater effect of head income than mother income) and versus the transition of human capital to child is take place dominantly thorough head (greater effect of mother literacy than head literacy).

The present study investigates the effect of capital on liquidity and credit risks in the banking industry of Iran using a GMM system. Eviews9 and stata12 software have been used to carry out this research. The research findings show that there is a significant and significant correlation between bank capital and risk in the banking industry of Iran, so that by increasing the capital of a bank by as much as one percent, the liquidity risk on the basis of various indexes can decrease from 0/1% to 0/4% Find out.In the case of credit risk, the increase in bank capital leads to a reduction in credit risk from 5/7 to 6/8 percent. Based on the findings of this research and tests, the ethical hazard theory in the banking industry is confirmed. And the charter theory regarding the banking system of Iran is not approved. In this study, the size of the bank shows a direct and significant relationship with liquidity risk, so that a unit of increase in the bank's size index has increased the risk of liquidity from 0/003 to 0/008. There is also a meaningful relationship between the variables of economics and the risk of liquidity and credit. The results of the research also suggest that risk management in banks depends not only on internal banking factors, but also on macroeconomic factors.