نشریه پژوهش های جغرافیای سیاسی
سال چهارم شماره 1 (پیاپی 13، بهار 1398)

The social mankind requires political participation in order to have a legitimate government system and so he does not find his place without active presence in politics. The first and easiest form of citizen participation is participation in the election. Election is one of the main elements of democratic governments. In this regard, one of the important concepts to be considered is the geography of the election. The geography of the election is centered on the selection of delegates at the local, regional and national levels that focuses on the geographic aspects of elections, referenda, and organizing them and knows the cultural, social, economic and other conditions is effective in various local, regional and national levels. Correct analysis of election behaviors and patterns and as well as the success of individuals and political groups in the election depends on the recognition of political approaches and approaches to electoral processes and political participation. Therefore, the present study attempts to identify the effective factors of political participation of citizens in the Ghaemshahr Islamic Council elections during the fourth and fifth periods.

This research with the aim of practical and descriptive-analytical method aims to analyze the space pattern of the fourth and fifth of city council election in Ghaemshahr City. The needed information was collected by studying documents and referring to offices of city and statistics center. The statistical society of this research is the polling station of Islamic Council of Ghaemshahr. The design of data analyzing and interpreting is quantity- concerned and the spatial analyzing is conducted to examine the effective impact of citizens’ contribution in the election and also the significant factors of the previous election of the city council member of Ghaemshahr are tested.

Election in the council of Ghaemshahr city has experienced many ups and downs in a way that the rate of contribution with the downward trend 71% in 1998 reached to 53% in 2017. Selected individuals received a small percentage of the vote, with a maximum of about 19 percent. In the following round this rate was decreased displaying the phenomenon of “single vote” or voting based on individual recognition. The pattern of vote distribution is scattered. in the fifth period, in all neighborhoods of the city, except three neighborhoods, the number of votes has decreased compared to the fourth period. Concentration of votes in the fourth period in the northern and southern part of the city and in the fifth period, in addition to the north and south, it has been drawn to the east and southwest. Most of the participants are in the age group of 18 to 29 years old, which is a young age group and most of them live in new and newly developed areas of the city. The focus of literacy is overlapping with the literate population and there is a relationship between the level of literacy and the average of invalid votes and in neighborhoods that had a higher education level, the more invalid votes were in the box. There is no significant relationship between the distribution and the density of employment and unemployment with the level of citizen participation but there is a meaningful relationship between immigration and participation and the neighborhoods where more immigrants live, has a lower participation rate than other neighborhoods.

Election of the City Council is one of the most important and simplest forms of participation and acceptance of the role of citizenship that shows itself directly in urban management. From 1998 to 2017, five city council elections were held in Ghaemshahr City. The trend of citizens' participation has decreased 19% from the first round to the fifth round and decreased from 71% in the first period to 53% in the fifth period which shows that people have little satisfaction with the performance of the City Council during the past years. Separation of participants according to the age shows the focus of the participation groups in the election is related to the context of the city, neighborhood and the urban development process. The level of literacy has a direct and meaningful relationship with invalid votes. This tells the urban elites and people more aware of the situation and the community doesn’t satisfy with the performance of the council in the past period. Various factors in the analysis of citizen participation patterns clearly show measuring and evaluating a variable or factor can’t be a specific pattern of participation rate and the set of factors must be examined together. The tendency and motivation of political choices on the one hand also imply social needs and on the other hand, it emanates from the ambition and expectations of social values.

The United States has to withdraw the powers in Eurasian geopolitical region, such as Russia, China, and Iran; and increase its influence in this region to draw up a new Eurasian geopolitical map. The interests of this country can be evaluated in addition to maintaining strategic patterns from the perspective of dominating energy reserves, securing oil pipelines, countering the influence of Russia, China and Iran. Russia, on the other hand, as a serious critic of US policies will seek to gain regional supremacy in Eurasia, following the relative establishment of political stability. it will certainly be a challenge for US policies in the region. China has cultural, economic and security links with some of the Eurasian countries, establishing itself as a great power by relying on worldwide economic power. These confrontations and disagreements with Washington's unilateral policies in the Eurasia geopolitical region with the presence of the Islamic Republic of Iran have become a strategic triangle for the establishment of a barrier policy.

The term of geopolitics, as a controversial and ambiguous word, was first introduced by the Swedish scientist "Radolf Kilen" in the 1899 and in the concept of "knowledge of the analysis of geography and politics relationship" came to contemporary political geography field. Geopolitics is the study of international relations and contrasts concerning the geographies. In other words, the influence of geographical factors such as the location, distance, and distribution of natural and human resources on international relations is a geopolitical issue (Braden & Shelley, 2000: 5).

Due to the nature of the subject, library and documentary methods have been used for data collection and qualitative analysis has been used for data analysis in which the classification, evaluation, comparison and analysis of the data are done to test the research hypothesis. The nature of this research is descriptive-analytical.

Eurasia as the Earth's Heartland is a key pillar of world domination. Indeed, specific indicators of the strategic regions of the world should be sought in this region. This is as important fact as Mackinder says: "Any power that can dominate Eurasia can control the world" (Nazemroaya & Halliday, 2012: 67 68). The United States has placed the acquisition and consolidation of world hegemony in the forefront of its determination, actions, and foreign policy responses, and at this time seeks to maintain its position by preventing the emergence of a global challenge power and even the formation of an anti-hegemonic alliance. Therefore, it seeks to prevent the creation of anti-hegemon alliances with a different mix of Iran, Russia, China, and India by infiltrating Russia's backyard, controlling China, and communicating with their neighbours. In the new conditions of the international system in which any power is met with resistance, the Eurasian region has the most potential to form an anti-hegemon axis for encountering America. Countries such as Russia, China, and Iran that are recently recognized as primarily regional powers, and some political scholars believe they have the potential to form an anti-hegemon axis in the Eurasian region. Brzezinski warned that the emergence of a Eurasian hostile coalition could challenge American supremacy. The aggressive nature of US strategy is clearly evident in Brzezinski's remarks. He identified the potential Eurasian coalition as a potential anti-hegemonic coalition or North Atlantic anti-coalition formed by the help of Iran, Russia, and China coalition, with China at its center (Brzezinski, 1998: 32). In 1999, Beijing and Moscow were well aware of what was happening as well as future events. They were also well aware of US foreign policy. China and Russia signed a good neighbourly alliance and friendly collaboration on July 24, 2001. this happened less than two months after 9/11 events. A reciprocal defense alliance was established against NATO and the US, and a military network was established around China, pushing them beyond their territorial and bilateral defense integrity (Nazemroaya, 2012: 6- 7). As well as strengthening its military structure and capability in the domestic arena based on the principle of self-reliance, Iran has also had a presence in regional coalition and mechanisms which undoubtedly, the most important of them is Iran's presence in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as one of the most important and comprehensive regional security mechanisms in Central Eurasia. (Karami and Kozegar Kalaji, 1393: 141).Washington's strategy for Central Asia after 2014 is to build communications channels along infrastructure such as the Northern Distribution Network and the New Silk Road with the aim of laying the foundations for a long-term structural relationship in Central Asia for the period following its military withdrawal (Javadyarjmand & salaverzizade, 1396:281). By establishing and leading new international organizations, China and Russia are also trying to challenge US-led Western Organizations and institutions. Iran's formal accession to Tracey (Europe, Caucasus, Asia) is a major step in breaking isolationist policies against Iran as well as strengthening Iran's transit status and increasing trade volume in Iran's southern route ( Karami & Kouzegarkaleji, 1393:139). China is well aware that it is highly vulnerable to a US leadership military strike on oil resources. That is why China is expanding its naval bases, so it insists and presses repeatedly to build onshore energy corridors and oil terminals directly from Central Asia and the Russian Federation to China. China's cooperation with Iran, Russia and the Central Asian republics helps to create an inter-Asian energy path and the continued flow of energy to China may be blocked if the oversight of the high seas by the US-led navy. The debate that has been going on for years over the development of a natural gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan, India, and China is itself part of China's strategic policy (Conway & Nauman, 2011: 3).

Maintaining the hegemonic role of the United States in the unipolar world has been America's most important strategic goal from post-Cold War to contemporary era. The creation of military bases and various investments in large oil and gas projects in various parts of the world, including the Eurasian region, are examples of this effort to shape the new American order. This policy was carried out rapidly by the US and NATO in the early years of the 21st century without any serious opposition from the other powers. Although Brzezinski claims that until the next generation, America's standing as the world's sole power cannot be challenged by any rival power, Russia, China, and Iran, as the three most powerful and beneficiary countries in the region, has been dissatisfied with the action from Washington and NATO and the relative progress they have made over the past two decades; and they  are trying to counter US and NATO policies and in turn strengthening their influence and capability in this geopolitical area. Preventing US pressure to isolate Iran, Russia, and China, gain greater maneuverability internationally in partnership with independent or dissatisfied governments, preventing NATO's influence and empowerment, investing in environmental and tourism issues, and participating in international gas and oil pipeline projects are among the most important collaborative efforts of the three countries against US hegemonic policies in Eurasia.

The International Criminal Court was set up on July 1, 2002, as the first permanent international tribunal to establish individual responsibility for all perpetrators of international crimes and to end Immunity of heads of state from prosecution. According to the Statute and the purposes of the Tribunal, its jurisdiction must be exercised universally and without discrimination in respect of the offenses committed by its member States and nationals, as well as in cases referred to the Security Council. However, in spite of committing international crimes around the world, we find that the Tribunal focuses only on the crimes committed in the African continent Because of the ten out of twelve cases under consideration in the Tribunal, are in the African continent. The same issue has attracted a lot of criticism, especially from the heads of African governments, so that even some International Criminal Tribunals refer to it as the African International Criminal Court and the African governments believe that the power of the Court is Geopolitical issues and approaches that have existed for a long time have been confined to the African continent and incapable of investigating other crimes committed on other continents. Thus, the African governments have serious doubts about the Court's independence and impartiality, have raised political concerns about the Court's work and refuse to cooperate with the Court while threatening to withdraw from the Court. In this article, in response to the question of the extent to which the African government has criticized the Tribunal, it is necessary to first examine how the jurisdiction of the Tribunal is exercised and to answer the following questions: What is the role of the Tribunal in the majority of the aforementioned African State cases? What are the geopolitical reasons for the Court's focus on the African continent? What has the Tribunal done to commit crimes on other continents? Review of Literature It has been nearly two decades since the establishment of the International Criminal Court. During this period many books and articles have been written in this field. However, there has been no comprehensive study of the performance of the Tribunal in the special continent, and in particular in the African continent, has not been extensively studied by researchers, and only a few authors have briefly examined the African continent's case and the reactions of African heads of state to the performance of the Tribunal. What distinguishes the present work from all other works is that is not limited to examining the response of African governments to the functioning of the Tribunal, but it attempts to assess the Tribunal's violation of the Statute, in a more comprehensive view of the geopolitical reasons for the Court's focus on the African continent. The question of whether the Court's performance is politically motivated or not, as well as evaluating the Court's actions on other continents, will be examined. Therefore, the innovation and novelty aspects of research are considered.

The present research, which is among the theoretical fundamental researches due to its legal and political nature, is discussed from a geopolitical point of view. Accordingly, this study can be considered as an interdisciplinary study of international criminal and geopolitical law. The sources used in this research are, by its theoretical nature, documentary and library sources. 

The Statute of the International Criminal Court was adopted on July 17, 1998 to deal with the criminalization of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and aggression. The establishment of this permanent institution promised to reduce the incidence of these crimes. However, in accordance with the provisions of the Statute, including the Court's supplementary jurisdiction, the court became the "last resort". One of the main reasons for the supplementary jurisdiction of the Court is the concern of governments about the power of the Tribunal to violate national sovereignty and its involvement in matters concerning the criminal jurisdiction of national courts. Because the issue of prosecution of international crimes is closely linked to the sovereignty of states. Therefore, the statutes of the statute are designed to respect the national sovereignty of states and to add more states to the statute of the court. To date, there are 122 members of the Tribunal; 33 are African, 18 are Asia-Pacific, 18 are Eastern European, 28 are Latin American and Caribbean, and 25 are Western European and other countries. However, the Court's review of its performance indicates that the Court has failed to meet its universal purpose. Because the Court's consideration of situation and cases indicates that the Court is focused on the African continent, and African governments believe that the Court's power has long been limited to the African continent due to geopolitical issues and approaches. It has not been able to investigate other crimes committed on other continents.

Based on the result of this study, the criticism of why the Tribunal does not deal with crimes committed elsewhere in the world is based on the Court's performance. However, the investigative phase is only one step in the Court and prior to that; there is a preliminary assessment of the situation. At present, several situations are in the process of evaluation, most of which concern non-African countries. However, in view of the Court's jurisdiction in the Statute, the African Government's criticism of the Court's lack of geopolitical focus on the African continent does not apply. Because of the ten Situation African states, five in Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic one and two and Mali by the African governments themselves, two by Libya and Sudan by the Security Council, and only three by the Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya and Burundi have been investigated by the prosecutor. In addition, the following can be cited as rejecting the African government's criticism of the Court's focus on the African continent. The first is due to the geopolitical and deplorable state of Africa itself compared to other continents. The second reason relates to the functioning of the Security Council, which is often accompanied by political and discriminatory considerations. The Security Council has so far only referred the situation in the African continent (Sudan and Libya) to the Tribunal. The third reason relates to the Statute of the Tribunal because the Tribunal is unable to deal with all crimes within its jurisdiction due to financial and administrative constraints.

The political organization of space as an organizing process of a part of the Earth limited by boundary for playing political roles has main purposes; one of them is facilitating people polling and citizens’ political turn-out which is realized through locating polling stations in city space. Therefore, voting boxes should be located regarding fair scientific principles and methods. It should be in line with improving citizens’ satisfaction and consequently their maximum turn-out. Otherwise, failure in this important affair leads to decrease citizens’ turn-out in elections. Undoubtedly, election executive boards have an important role in the above mentioned process. The main question of this article is what pattern of distribution of polling stations is followed in Eyvan city (one of the cities in the northern constituency of Ilam Province) and if people are satisfied with the location of polling stations in the previous elections. Review of literature Political organization of city space as a location of national and local election is done through locating voting branches. Planning for locating these branches is responsibility of election executive boards and optimal dispersion of these branches can affect the citizens’ participation in elections. Population density is the most important factor in this matter. Other considered factors are as follows in order of importance: Eligible places for polling stations, Polling stations distance from main ways, Accessibility of polling stations to security and services centers. Of written articles the followings can be mentioned. Special place Analysis of voting box in 15th area of Tehran with help of GIS (Nazarian et. al, 2011), Distance traveled to polling locations: Are travel costs imposed equally on party members (Joslyn et al, 2018).

In terms of purpose, this study is functional and in terms of identity and general method it is analytical- descriptive. Data gathering was done through field (questioner) and library method. For data description, descriptive statistics and for data analysis GIS software, hierarchical analysis (AHP), expert Choice software and SPSS (one- way T-test) have been used. Statistical population is people over 18 years old (eligible people for voting). Sample size is 380 people computed by using Cochran formula and multi stage cluster. In this study researcher- made questioner has been used that its validity is formal and its reliability which is 0.84 has been calculated based on Cranach’s alpha.

1. Weighing the criteria: (effective factors on polling stations). In order to weigh through AHP method, the first criteria (effective factors on polling stations distribution) were compared two by two. Then Expert Choice software was used to compute the weight of each criterion. This software has been designed for analyzing multivariable Problems by using hierarchical analytical process (AHP). The weight of criteria calculated by Expert Choice software has been shown in the following table. Table 1. Weight of criteria criterion weight Incompatibility coefficient Population density 0.44 0.12 :incompatibility less than 1% which shows compatibility between binary matrix coefficients Accessibility of polling stations to security and services centers 0.037 Polling stations distance from main ways 0.107 Infrastructure (eligible places for polling stations) 0.415 2. Preparation and layer integration In decision making process, the optimal area is a span which has the best condition for studying identification factors and criteria. In this stage, the conditions should be provided so that the summing of all effective indices is possible. Fuzzy logic is elective method in order to value subject layers. In this method, the studied area is valued by zero and one interval in each layer. In order to integrate resulted layers using obtained weights, simple mass weighting method was used. The results of integration are shown in the following features. Potential area for polling stations: population density area T 0.44+ infrastructure area T 0.415+ stations distance from main ways T 0.107+ station distance area from security- service centers T 0.37. Map 2. matching the proposed points with potential area Map 1. Potential area for polling stations 3. Studying eligible places of polling stations and determining suggested stations In this stage all eligible places for polling stations in the city were studied and eligible places were determined. 22 out of 26 cases have adapted with optimal area (Map3). In GIS software population and the radius of each polling station was determined by using menus of Geoprocessing (Buffer, clip) and Selection (selection by location), such that stations have minimum overlap and citizens had maximum accessibility to polling boxes in the way that it leads to prevent over-crowding. Based on such pattern, the maximum citizens’ satisfaction with polling boxes location have been provided and formation of more voting holes (long distance to polling stations) has been prevented (Map3), while in the previous elections, polling stations location have been determined approximately and polling stations with high overlap and their distribution didn’t follow special pattern (Map 4). Map 3. Suggested pattern for polling stations’ distribution of parliament election in 2020 Map 4. Map of polling stations’ distribution in president elections in 2018 4. Findings and field analyses Suggested interval of polling stations for 97% of respondents was less than 250 meters which it has been observed in suggested pattern for20 polling boxes (out of 25 boxes) while in previous elections, the 250 meter distance was observed from 65% people’s point of view. 60% of respondents have preferred establishment of polling stations in educational and official places over masques. Also, scores of items were combined separately and were test by T-Test statistic for assessing satisfaction from polling stations (table).Using this test, both the significance of the indices and difference from the mean are determined. In this way, comparing average level of variable impact of satisfaction of polling stations stations which is 2.6 with average validated level of impact which is 3 and also regarding computed level of significance which is determiner of a numbers over 5%, shows that there was no satisfaction with polling stations location in the previous elections. Table 2. The result of T-Test variable number mean degree of freedom T-statistics Standard deviation Significance level Mean difference satisfaction 380 2.6 0.79 1.3 379 0.06 -0.40 .

Findings show that there was no satisfaction with distribution of polling stations in the previous elections and location of boxes hasn’t followed any special pattern, in the way that a few stations have been established in some densely populated areas and vice versa. Accordingly, potential area is determined by using related models for establishing polling stations and suggested pattern has been designed in GIS based on population density parameters (above 18 years) accessibility and infrastructure (existence of eligible places for polling). In this pattern, polling stations had minimum overlap, radius coverage and certain population and prevention of formation of voting holes (citizens’ accessibility to voting stations) is facilitated. Establishing stations for department of natural resources, 17 Sharivar school, Imam Hasan Mosque, Samen Mosque, and Payamenor and deleting Hoseinieh Rashidi, kaosar, Sepideh and Hafez Gaireentefaee and relocation of seven stations (Chamran, Imam Jafare sadeg, Dr Hesabi , valie asar Mosque, Hazrate Masome(Ateferashidi), Jame Mosque, and shahid Mottahari) has been suggested in the new pattern.

Iran, when it comes to ethnicity and religion, is a diverse country. This diversity has brought along a number of structural characteristics that differentiate it in terms of social formation and the political aftermath of such heterogeneity. The political events of the past hundred years in Iran reveal occasional conflict and confrontation. This study traces the disputes partly to ethnic division as one of the most defining, yet unsettled, aspects of social identity. So important were these rifts that deepened by the nationalism of the centralist government of Pahlavi, they paved the way for the establishment of political parties in Kurdistan and eventually the emergence of Kurdish political discourse at that point. In fact, the advent of Iran's new age and manifestation of the modernity façade along with the Pahlavi concept of backwardness had led Iran falls into a type of ethnic nationalism that stirred the ethnic conflict in different areas of Iran including in Kurdistan. Actually, finding the grounds of the Kurdistan conflict and a realistic understanding of how the Kurdish political discourses came to form greatly helps conceive one of the most historic political conflicts of Iran in the contemporary era and find an appropriate solution to address that.    

Based on "state formation, nation building" project, Stien Rokkan defines four main social cleavages in Europe, similar to what is witnessed during the first Pahlavi period in Iran. In fact, Stein regards the important historical events as the genesis of social cleavage. The national Revolution during the Reformation and the Industrial Revolution of the eighteenth century both created significant social gaps in the west. This classification besides the formation of identical social cleavage in the era of national revolutions, based on "State formation, Nation Building", is the cornerstones of the present study of Pahlavi Period. Ironically, insisting on building a national state in Iran spawned deeper a rift amongst the Iranian ethnic groups in a way that Pahlavi's "State Formation, Nation Building" resulted in the Kurdistan conflicts.In regard to analysis background about the social cleavage, there are a number of leading works to be mentioned: Political Man by Symour Martin Lipset, identifying the social roots of fascism, communism, democracy, and political parties; Party Systems and Voter Alignments, co-edited by Lipset and Stien Rokkan, which deals with the effects of social gap on the political behavior of the citizens; Political Sociology of Social Cleavayes(case studies)by Nikki R. Keddie and Pippa Norris. Mohamad Reza Jalaiipor, Hamid Ahmadi, Nader Entesar, Chris Kutschera, David Macdowall, William Eagleton JR and Abdolrahman Qasemlo have studied issues of Kurdistan from a historical point of view, most of whom Jlaiipoor has focused on formation of Kurdish political current in the context of political sociology.

Theory of Ernesto Laclau and Chental Muffe about discourse is one of the most practical theories in this realm. They believe all social phenomena can be analyzed using analytical tools discourse. In fact, what makes their theory outstanding is extending discourse from culture and philosophy to society and politics. They made an attempt to explain the evolution of discourse putting forward such concepts as ideology, identity, otherness, antagonism, etc. Since discourse analysis is not only a theory but can also be used as a research method and given that the present study focuses on the formation of the political discourse of Kurds and its changes over time, it can serve as a suitable method.   

This paper studies the Kurdish political discourse and its modifications from September 1942 to the Islamic Revolution in 1979. In fact, with the foundation of "Kurdistan Democratic Party " and the announcement of The Republic of Kurdistan in Mahabad by them for the first time the Kurdish political discourse took a systematic form, which considering the developing conditions and policies went through four distinct stages of modification; first, the Kurdish “political discourse of ethnic identitism” whose nodal point is "Kurdish Language"; second, “the participationism of Kurdish political discourse” with  participation in political processes in Iran" as its nodal point; third, “the ethnicist, identity seeking political discourse” of Kurds having "militia operation" as its nodal point; fourth, “the participatory identitist political discourse” that “kurdayati”( Kurdish Identity ) is the nodal point of that. In actual fact, these changes were under the influence of and antagonistic towards the political discourse of the center and its aimed nationalism in these periods. At any given point, where there is a more ethnical attitude towards Kurds, a more radicalized political discourse is adopted with them.     

During the Pahlavi period, social cleavage consistently and actively existed in reaction to the policies of the Pahlavi and their desired nationalism, and the political discourse of the Kurds in "Kurdistan Democratic Party", as the only political process in Kurdistan, underwent changes accordingly. During the period from the foundation of the "Kurdistan Democratic Party" to the Islamic Revolution of Iran, the Kurdish political discourse experienced four stages in reaction to political circumstances and the government's attitude towards Kurdistan. In each one of the four points, the Kurdish political discourse revolved around a different nodal point. The nodal point in each period is articulated by floating signifiers and creates a distinct discursive. In general, the Kurdish discourses are antagonist to the discourse of the center and have a reactionary form. Briefly put, the Kurdish discourse during this analyzed period is antagonistic and a reaction against the existing conditions in the center and the attitude of those in power towards Kurdistan and their favorable nationalism in each time.

In principle, the nature of foreign policy of the United States, especially among Republicans, is based on issues such as strong support for Israel, emphasis on fighting with enemies, unwillingness to compromise with political and military rivals, and the maximum interest of the United States in the shadow of intimidation and threats. This has posed a serious challenge in the West Asian region, especially with the growing strength of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the post-ISIS era and the formation of a powerful Shiite coalition. In this article, the authors attempt to provide an answer to this question: What was the cause of the assassination of Major General Ghassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps by Trump? And then what are the possible implications for the future of the region's security? The paper's hypothesis, based on Haug Miall's cyclic model theory, implies that the historical backdrop of the crisis goes back to the time of concluding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in addition to the historical hostilities after the Islamic Revolution. The stage of this crisis is related to the growing formation of the Shiite resistance front during the rise of ISIS and Post- ISIS and the imposition of heavy US economic sanctions on the IRGC in the region. In the confrontation phase, the direct and indirect military challenges and threats of the two countries against each other such as placing the Revolutionary Guards on the list of international terrorist groups can be mentioned. And finally, in the mediation phase, we can mention Japan's mediation activities.The paper's findings also indicate that the failure of Trump's policies at all stages, his impeachment of Democrats within the US political system, and ultimately the need for a major breakthrough to succeed in the upcoming election make him eventually to assassinat Major General Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The "Conflict Cycle Model" was proposed by Miall Haug, in which several steps are considered for a crisis. This step is as follows:
Crisis potential stage;
Crisis Development Stage;
Mediation and mediation of international and regional organizations and powers;
Stage of collision and confrontation.

The research method of this article is historical sociology.

In the crisis potential stage: Trump believes that the jcpoa agreement has brought down the hegemony of the United States and has increased the power of Iran and the Revolutionary Guards. So he canceled the deal at this point;In Crisis Development Stage: Trump stressed the expansion of the Shiite sphere of influence in the Middle East and the threat of Shiites to Israel (which is a strategic ally of the United States in the Middle East) to create a crisis with the Revolutionary Guards;In Mediation and mediation of international and regional organizations and powers: In this Stage, Trump sent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Tehran to mediate between him and Islamic Republic officials So that he can create the conditions for a new agreement.In Stage of collision and confrontation: At this stage, Trump first placed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under terrorist groups. Then, He imposed economic sanctions on this group and eventually, he threatened war and direct confrontation (sending warships to the Persian Gulf). Trump's failure to persuade the Islamic Republic to sign a new treaty and the need for a major breakthrough to succeed in the upcoming election, He eventually assassinated Major General Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly challenged US hegemony in the Middle East and has sought to limit US influence. In fact, Iran has always defined the US presence in the region as a security challenge, not as a precursor to a regional security system. After the rise of ISIS, the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, supported its strategic allies, Syria and Iraq. The support that continued to lay the groundwork for a deep Shiite coalition led to the relative decline of ISIS. This should be considered a great achievement for Iran, along with the formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces military in Iraq and Hezbollah in Syria, because the nature of these military groups is the same as the opposition to US policies. For this reason, the United States, after the fall of ISIS, considered Iraq and Syria as a kind of loser, and its main analysis was based on the extensive influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in these countries and some other Middle Eastern countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan. As a result, Trump, while placing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under international terrorist groups, eventually assassinated Major General Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes so that he would not see his interests lost in these countries any more. Trump's terrorist act could pose a major security, economic and military challenge to the United States and its allies in the Middle East. An action that will face strong Shiites reactions in the not-too-distant future.