نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال سی و چهارم شماره 1 (پیاپی 132، بهار 1402)

The purpose of this study is to design, explain and present a Permission Based Marketing model in the field of banking among the employees of Bank Mellat branches.In this research, the combined method strategy has been used to answer the research questions. In this research, by means of Delphi method, the opinions of experts in this field have been collected and summarized. According to the purpose, the research is one of the applied and developmental researches and in terms of implementation method, it is a descriptive survey. First, the initial conceptual model extracted from the subject and background literature by the meta-integration method has been refined by organizational experts using the Delphi method. Data collection tool was an open questionnaire and purposive sampling method was judgmental. In the quantitative part, the Delphi process was performed in three rounds, and the criterion for stopping the rounds was reaching the Kendall agreement coefficient to an acceptable level.The findings show that Permission Based Marketing indicators in Bank Mellat can be grouped into six categories: advertising effectiveness, information technology, marketing capability, customer satisfaction, continuity of customer relationship and customer attitude, which are more important in terms of attitude Customer, advertising effectiveness, customer relationship continuity, customer satisfaction, information technology and marketing capabilities.The results showed that the bank's commitment to the customer is one of the main reasons for permission based marketing,

this research has been done in the field of technology roadmapping. The secondary area of this research is the field of information technology.

The purpose of this study was to identify the key indicators of information technology in organization and then to formulate a generic method to create an information technology roadmap.

The main methodology of this study was mixed-method exploration based on tool formulation. the final statistical sample consists of a panel of 30 experts in the related fields at Mobarakeh Steel Company. In the qualitative phase, the research started with interviews. then, In the quantitative phase, the Delphi method was used in the panel of experts and then the IPA was used.

In the qualitative phase, 98 primary indicators, either current or future, were extracted in 4 key components of IT field for virtual bank implementation. In the quantitative phase and after performing the Delphi Rounds, 50 information technology indicators, were finalized. After the importance-performance analysis, 9 gaps in 3components were identified. These gaps used in the formulation of the final IT roadmap.

In order to implement technology projects in an organization, at first, the roadmap must be developed. since no specific methodology has been provided for the development of IT roadmap, so this research has introduced a unique, innovative, localized and operational methodology, (based on the main methods of foresight), to develop an IT roadmap, that can easily meet the needs of researchers and academicians in the field of IT roadmapping.

The present research aimed at prediction of banking disorder and contagion of crisis in the banking network is conducted by application of linear and non-linear hybrid approach. The present research method is of descriptive-survey, and practical in terms of objective. Therefore, in order to attain this objective, firstly, banking system fragility index (BSFI) is reviewed as an early warning system in order to identify banking crisis, in four banking system sectors (specialized, commercial, private and credit institutions), and banking system fragility index is reviewed in the stated four sectors by applying linear and non-linear approaches by making use of data obtained during March 2016 until December 2020. Results of calculation of banking system fragility index in sub-sectors of the banking system indicate periods of high fragility of the banking system, in particular in January, February and March 2017, which might be due to effects of election. Furthermore, in December 2020, high risk-taking was observed in the banking system, arising from creation of a bubble, which represents a strong warning for future problems of the national banking system. Furthermore, during the review period, banking network is noticeably fragile. Notably, results of Granger linear causality test indicate two-sided causality between credit institutions and private banks, a one-sided causal relationship from private banks to specialized and commercial banks and also a one-sided causal relationship from specialized banks to commercial banks.

Today, with the increasing speed, complexity, and extent of environmental changes, we are witnessing a continuing decline in the accuracy of traditional forecasts in the organization. Since people interact with each other and different organizations in a completely dynamic and culturally diverse environment, a deep understanding of possible futures can lead to greater productivity. This research has been compiled with the aim of studying the future of cultural intelligence with a scenario-building approach. The research method is qualitative research and is in accordance with the quasi-numerical or judgmental approach in the field of futures research methods. In addition to articles, the assessment tool was the compilation of questionnaires in two stages using the Delphi technique. In this Delphi panel study, 17 experts in the field of communication and organizational behavior were selected by researchers. For structural analysis, the matrix method of cross-sectional analysis coefficients using Mick Mac software has been used. The findings showed that cultural, environmental, educational, and media factors have the greatest impact on cultural intelligence, based on which four scenarios called cultural intelligence, the cradle of cultural empathy, cultural intelligence free of prejudice (free-thinking), cultural intelligence Underlying Cultural Shock and Cultural Intelligence is written unrealistic media representation feedback. Predicting the future of cultural intelligence can reduce communication barriers between different cultures and give people the power to manage culture.

Today, agility is recognized as a characteristic of competition, so its use in the supply chain of many companies has expanded, but these companies need a way to adapt to the dynamic needs in the least Time consolidates a large amount of information and delivers it to different parts of the supply chain. E-marketing can be effective in solving this problem.The purpose of this research is to"develop a comprehensive model for evaluating the factors of electronic marketing that affect the agile supply chain". This research is applicational and descriptive-surveying with the modeling approach. The statistical population of this research consists of experts with common expertise in the field of IT and marketing in Hamrah Aval operator. The number of these people is 133, which was randomly selected.The questionnaire is used to collect the information, and the structural equation modeling approach, the one-sample t test, (AHP) approach and Quality Function Deployment approach,were used to analyse the data. The research results show e-marketing has an effect on supply chain agility and 7 factors, as the most effective e-marketing agents to respond to agility enablers and 7 tools the most effective e-marketing tools for budget allocation were identified and prioritized in order of weight. According to studies conducted in this field, no study has been conducted in relation to the present study. As a result, the proposed structure is presented as the first model that has the ability to be formulated and implemented according to the current variable situation.

Startups as a new model of business development, have been considered by governments and investors around the world. Also startups have played an important role in economic development of countries. The success rate of startups around the world is low, so in recent years efforts have been made to identify the factors behind their failure and success. The purpose of this article is to investigate these factors in the Iranian business ecosystem by conducting interviews with activists in this field. In this research, By conducting 25 interviews, 7 general categories, 32 categories and 87 concepts were extracted. General categories include having the suitable business model, fund-raising and support, Analyze and managing the market, the founder's managerial ability, product / service characteristics, team characteristics, and legal issues. The results show that a number of effective factors, are independent of the society hosting business and also have been mentioned in numerous global studies, but a number of others are depending on the culture and conditions of the society. So in order to improve the performance and success rate of startups, in addition to global efforts in this field, it is important to know the culture and community-related factors

This article investigates the issue of technology transfer in the automotive industry quantitatively using an econometric approach. As a case study, the international joint venture between the French automotive group Peugeot and Iran Khodro Industrial Group in two products 301 and 2008, have been selected as case studies of this article. In the literature review section, it is shown that there are five main approaches to measuring technology in auto parts: 1- Approach to the amount of investment in research and development, 2- Export value approach to GDP per capita, 3- Definition approach Threshold, 4- Approach based on engineering cost ranking and finally and the latest method 5- Patent statistics approach. This paper first describes the previous five approaches and based on this; a new approach based on the regression analysis model for measuring the technology transfer index of auto parts is presented. The results show that despite Iran Khodro's great efforts to transfer technology from Peugeot in two products, 301 and 2008, the company will be successful only in the production of auto parts with simple technology and low added value have been produced in Iran Khodro's internal supply chain.

Recognizing and analyzing the factors affecting the financial distress of companies and preventing its occurrence is one of the important issues in the economic and financial field. The personality characteristics of senior managers and their behavioral errors such as financial risk aversion as a component affect the financial decisions of managers and consequently the success and failure of companies in the field of competition.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of personality characteristics of senior managers on financial distress of companies with emphasis on the role of financial risk aversion.

The research method in terms of purpose in the group of exploratory research, in terms of data collection in the category of qualitative research and in terms of results is also in the category of developmental research. The statistical sample of this research consists of 181 senior managers of manufacturing companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. PLS2 Smart software was used to analyze the data obtained from the questionnaire.

The results show that senior managers with personality charactristics of openness to experience, adaptability and conscientiousness, reduce their risk aversion and reduce the financial distress of companies and extraverted senior executives increase their risk aversion and increase the financial distress of companies.