فهرست مطالب

فصلنامه روستا و توسعه
سال بیست و ششم شماره 2 (پیاپی 102، تابستان 1402)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1402/11/30
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • حجت ورمزیاری*، فاطمه ابراهیمی فینی، خلیل کلانتری صفحات 1-26

    سازمان های غیردولتی زمینه ساز مشارکت مردم در امور اجتماعی هستند و نقش مهمی در توسعه بوم گردی دارند. با وجود این، تاکنون مولفه‏ های موثر بر موفقیت این سازمان‏ ها در برنامه‏ ریزی و توسعه بوم‎‏ گردی بررسی نشده است. مطالعه حاضر با روش نظریه زمینه ای به واکاوی نقش این سازمان ها در توسعه بوم گردی در نواحی روستایی ایران پرداخته، ویژگی های سازمان های موفق را احصاء و در نهایت مدل تبیین کننده موفقیت این سازمان ها را ارایه کرده است. مشارکت کنندگان این مطالعه شامل 37 نفر از متخصصان بوم گردی، مدیران و کارشناسان سازمان های غیردولتی، مدیران دولتی و مالکین اقامتگاه ها بودند که با نمونه گیری نظری انتخاب شدند. از تحلیل مصاحبه ها، 64 کد باز و از تلفیق کدهای باز حول یک محور، 6 کد محوری شامل توسعه درون زا، توسعه محله ای دارایی ‏محور، کدهای رفتاری سازمان های غیردولتی، ویژگی های حرفه‏ای سازمان‏ های غیردولتی موفق، الزامات درون ساختاری و الزامات پروژه‏ های موفق به دست آمد. در مدل حاصل از این مطالعه، توسعه درون زا و دارایی محور به عنوان پارادایم غالب بر فعالیت این سازمان ها در نظر گرفته شد. توجه به مشارکت و انتفاع مستقیم جامعه محلی در برنامه‏ ریزی و مدیریت پروژه‏ های بوم‏گردی و آگاه‏ سازی جامعه محلی از قابلیت درآمدزایی دارایی‏ ها و جاذبه‏ های محلی برای موفقیت سازمان های غیردولتی توصیه می‏ شود.

    کلیدواژگان: بوم گردی، سازمان های غیردولتی، مدل موفقیت، نظریه زمینه ای
  • سعید یزدانی*، حسین نوروزی، رضا شاکری بستان آباد صفحات 27-50

    نقش تغذیه در سلامت جامعه و ارتباط آن با توسعه اقتصادی سبب شده است تا امنیت غذایی در بین اولویت ها و اهداف برنامه های توسعه هر کشور قرار گیرد. تدوین و طراحی برنامه هدفمند به منظور ارتقاء و بهبود وضعیت امنیت غذایی مستلزم شناسایی و سنجش میزان اثرگذاری مولفه های موثر بر آن است. ازاین رو، در این مطالعه مهم ترین مولفه های اثرگذار بر امنیت غذایی خانوارهای روستایی در استان های ایران در دوره زمانی 1385-1398 با استفاده از روش پانل پروبیت کسری مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که متغیرهای ضریب جینی، تورم، مالیات سرانه و بیکاری، اثر منفی و معنی دار و متغیرهای درآمد سرانه و توسعه مالی اثر مثبت و معنی داری بر امنیت غذایی خانوارهای روستایی در استان های کشور داشته است. به طوری که با افزایش یک درصدی هریک از این متغیرها شاخص امنیت غذایی به ترتیب به میزان 0/07-،  0/17-،  0/99-،  0/06-، 0/84 و 0/13 درصد تغییر می یابد. با توجه به اثر منفی مالیات سرانه بر امنیت غذایی و تاثیر منفی مالیات بر توزیع درآمد و درآمد در دسترس و همچنین اثر منفی ضریب جینی بر امنیت غذایی و اثر توزیع درآمد بر آن، با بهبود ضریب جینی و افزایش درآمد در دسترس، ارتقاء امنیت غذایی میسر خواهد بود. ازاین رو، پیشنهاد می شود در راستای بهبود امنیت غذایی، با توجه به اثرگذاری مثبت ضریب توسعه مالی بر امنیت غذایی و همچنین افزایش درآمد در دسترس، دولت با توجه بیشتر به مناطق روستایی و کمتر توسعه یافته با اعطای تسهیلات و وام های ارزان قیمت و هدفمند، زمینه های افزایش سرمایه گذاری و درآمد و کاهش بیکاری و فقر را فراهم آورد.

    کلیدواژگان: امنیت غذایی، تورم، ضریب جینی، توسعه مالی، مناطق روستایی
  • آیت الله کرمی*، مصطفی احمدوند، محبوبه آسیمه صفحات 51-78

    بدون تردید به دنبال اجرای هر پروژه عمرانی در بستر طبیعت، ارزیابی اقدامات و بررسی پیامدهای آن به منظور رفع نواقص و بهبود کارهای آتی ضروری است. ازاین رو، پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی اثرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی طرح آبخیزداری از دیدگاه روستاییان حوضه آبخیز گرم آباد استان فارس در سال 1400 انجام گرفت. این پژوهش به روش پیمایشی بود. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل همه سرپرستان خانوار (895=N) در روستای گرم آباد واقع در شهرستان مرودشت استان فارس بودند که از میان آن ها 112 نفر با روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده به عنوان نمونه آماری انتخاب شدند. ابزار جمع آوری داده ها، پرسشنامه محقق ساخت بود که روایی صوری آن بر اساس نظرات تعدادی از متخصصان موضوعی تایید شد و پایایی آن از طریق محاسبه ضریب آلفای کرونباخ برای بخش های مختلف پرسشنامه 0/65-0/84 به دست آمد. نتایج تحلیل عاملی نشان داد که در حیطه اثرات زیست محیطی، چهار دسته عوامل ایجاد چشم انداز زیبا و بهبود زیرساخت، کنترل فرسایش و افزایش سطح مراتع، بهره برداری از نزولات آسمانی، و کنترل سیلاب و بهبود وضعیت بهداشتی روستا توانستند 67/88 درصد از واریانس اثرات زیست محیطی را تبیین نمایند. پنج عامل در حیطه اقتصادی شامل افزایش میزان و سطح تولید، کاهش هزینه های تولید، افزایش مالکیت و دارایی ها، افزایش اعتبارات و توسعه روستا و اشتغال و درآمدزایی از مهم ترین اثرات اقتصادی طرح آبخیزداری بودند که در مجموع 71/80 درصد از واریانس را تبیین نمودند. در حیطه اجتماعی نیز پنج دسته عوامل مشارکت و همکاری، تثبیت جامعه، افزایش آگاهی، پیگیری نهادی، و تبادل فرهنگی توانستند 69/56 درصد از واریانس را تببین نمایند.

    کلیدواژگان: ارزیابی اثرات، طرح آبخیزداری، حوضه آبخیز، گرم آباد، استان فارس
  • علی موحد*، مریم عبدلی، فاطمه خزائی، محمدرضا ابوترابی زارچی صفحات 79-102

    گردشگری در روستاهای پیرامون شهری می تواند به عنوان منبع جدید اشتغال و درآمد ساکنان از سوی مدیران محلی در ارتقاء سطح کیفیت زندگی به کار گرفته شود؛ اما پیش از آن، افزایش کیفیت زندگی منوط به انجام یک برنامه ریزی مدون برای ایجاد و توسعه شاخص زیست پذیری روستاهای پیراشهری است. بنابراین هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی رابطه مدیریت روستایی با زیست پذیری اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی روستاهای دارای توان گردشگری پیراشهری است. روش پژوهش مورد استفاده ازنظر هدف، کاربردی با ماهیت پیمایشی و با توجه به نحوه گردآوری داده ها از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی همبستگی است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش شامل تمام ساکنان محلی روستای اله آباد استان یزد در فروردین 1400 بوده است که با استفاده از نمونه گیری تصادفی و با بهره گیری از فرمول کوکران تعداد 363 نفر انتخاب شدند. یافته ها نشان داد که زیست پذیری اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی با مدیریت محلی (دهیاری و شورای اسلامی) رابطه مستقیم و معنادار دارد و شدت رابطه زیست پذیری اقتصادی با مدیریت محلی در حد مناسب ولی بیشتر از سایر متغیرها است. نتایج همبستگی نیز گواه این موضوع است که با بهتر شدن وضعیت مدیریت محلی، تمامی ابعاد زیست پذیری بهبود پیدا خواهند کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: زیست پذیری، مدیریت روستایی، توسعه گردشگری، روستاهای پیراشهری، روستای اله آباد
  • ثابت احمد باوری، مهدی کرمی دهکردی*، قاسم لیانی صفحات 103-132

    ام هدف این تحقیق تحلیل و تبیین سرمایه زیست محیطی معیشت پایدار روستایی با رویکرد تفکر سیستمی می باشد. در گام اول، متغیرهای کلیدی سیستم از طریق تکمیل پرسشنامه و مصاحبه با خبرگان در منطقه موردمطالعه تعیین شدند. در ادامه با طراحی یک پرسشنامه جدید و مصاحبه با 120 نفر مردم محلی در منطقه موردپژوهش، با نمونه گیری هدفمند به تکنیک گلوله برفی مطابق با فرمول کوکران، وضعیت منطقه از منظر متغیرهای کلیدی دارایی زیست محیطی مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می دهد که سرمایه زیست محیطی از طریق مکانیزمی پیچیده و پویا می تواند معیشت پایدار روستایی را در یک جامعه رقم بزند؛ بنابراین با استفاده از رویکرد سیستم دینامیک رفتار پویای متغیرهای کلیدی سیستم معیشت پایدار روستایی موردبررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج شبیه سازی متغیرهای کلیدی دارایی های زیست محیطی طی سال های 1420-1400 نشان داد که سرانه آب سطحی در دسترس و سرانه جنگل در منطقه موردبررسی روند نزولی را تجربه می کنند. با توجه به سیستم طراحی شده، این بدان معناست که دارایی های زیست محیطی در منطقه موردمطالعه در سال های آینده در وضعیت مطلوبی قرار نخواهد داشت و توانایی سیستم در پاسخ به تقاضای فزاینده آب و غذا رو به کاهش است. بر این اساس به نظر می رسد سیاست های فعلی در منطقه موردبررسی در بخش مدیریت دارایی های زیست محیطی در راستای دستیابی به توسعه معیشت پایدار روستایی نیست. ازاین رو پیشنهاد می شود تا دولت افغانستان سیاست های مطلوب برای مدیریت دارایی های زیست محیطی برای ایجاد توسعه پایدار روستایی اتخاذ نمایند.

    کلیدواژگان: معیشت پایدار روستایی، سرمایه طبیعی، سیستم دینامیک، شبیه سازی، کشور افغانستان
  • احمد یعقوبی فرانی*، سعید کریمی، مجید رضا خداوردیان، فائزه محمدی نژاد صفحات 133-164

    تحقیق حاضر با هدف ارزیابی شایستگی های کارآفرینانه زنان تسهیل گر روستایی و ارایه چارچوبی برای تبیین مجموعه شایستگی های کارآفرینانه آنها در سه استان همدان، قم و مرکزی انجام شد. این تحقیق، نوعی تحقیق کاربردی و توصیفی- تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق 473 نفر از زنان تسهیل گر در این سه استان بودند که بر اساس فرمول کوکران 212 نفر از آنها بعنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار گردآوری داده ها، پرسشنامه بود که روایی آن توسط متخصصین تایید و برای ارزیابی پایایی آن از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد. تجزیه و تحلیل یافته های تحقیق در بخش توصیفی با استفاده از نرم افزار SPSS انجام شد و برای ارزیابی چارچوب شایستگی ها، از تکنیک تحلیل عاملی تاییدی در نرم افزار Smart-PLS3 استفاده شد. بر مبنای نتایج تحقیق، برخورداری زنان تسهیل گر از تمامی مولفه های مرتبط با شایستگی های کارآفرینانه در حد متوسط تا زیاد بوده و در بین شایستگی های مورد نظر، مولفه های مرتبط با شایستگی اخلاقی، شایستگی شخصی و شایستگی فنی به ترتیب در اولویت های اول تا سوم قرار داشتند. نتایج تحلیل عاملی نشان داد که مولفه های دوازده گانه شایستگی از دقت لازم برای ارزیابی و پیش بینی شایستگی های کارآفرینانه زنان برخوردار بوده و چارچوب مورد نظر مورد تایید قرار می گیرد. در مجموع، زنان تسهیل گر از تنوع مطلوبی از شایستگی های کارآفرینانه مشتمل بر ویژگی های شخصی و اخلاقی، دانش و توانمندی های مرتبط و نیز هنجارها و نگرش های مناسب برخوردار بوده و می توان انتظار داشت توانمندی و ظرفیت لازم در زنان تسهیل گر برای ایفای نقش موثر در فرایند توسعه کارآفرینی و اشتغال زنان روستایی وجود داشته باشد.

    کلیدواژگان: کارآفرینی، زنان روستایی، زنان تسهیل گر، شایستگی کارآفرینانه، توسعه روستایی
  • فاطمه امامی*، مجید یاسوری صفحات 165-196

    پژوهش حاضر، با رویکرد آینده پژوهی، به شناسایی مهم ترین عوامل موثر بر وضعیت گردشگری روستایی استان گیلان و بررسی میزان و چگونگی تاثیرگذاری این عوامل بر یکدیگر می پردازد. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، بر اساس روش-های جدید علم آینده پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است که با به کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل های کمی و کیفی انجام گرفته است. بر همین اساس، در گام نخست، شاخص ها و مولفه های تاثیر-گذار در این حوزه در ابعاد مختلف (اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، برنامه ریزی و مدیریت، زیرساختی و خدماتی و عوامل طبیعی) جمع آوری شد. پس از جمع آوری داده ها و شناسایی متغیرهای اولیه در چارچوب مدل دلفی، 40 پرسشنامه منحصرا بین نخبگان اجرایی استان گیلان و دانشگاهی (جامعه آماری پژوهش)، که تخصص و تجربه کافی پیرامون مسایل گردشگری داشتند توزیع گردید. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن که است عوامل انتخاب شده در بیش از 92 درصد موارد بر یکدیگر تاثیرگذاشته اند. و بر اساس نتایج کمی خبرگان، وضعیت گردشگری روستایی در استان گیلان تا حدودی ناپایدار است و شرایط کنونی حاکم بر سیستم گردشگری روستایی در آینده نزدیک به شدت تغییر خواهد کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: گردشگری روستایی، آینده پژوهی، عوامل موثر، استان گیلان
  • آمنه خدیور*، لیلی نیاکان صفحات 197-226

    صندوق بیمه کشاورزی در مدیریت ریسک بخش کشاورزی کشور نقش راهبردی و اساسی دارد. اگرچه مدیریت و انتقال بخش مهمی از ریسک های کشاورزی در حال حاضر توسط این صندوق انجام می‏شود اما ساختار و حیطه اختیارات این مجموعه تناسبی با نیازهای امروز کشور در حوزه کشاورزی ندارد و سطح نارضایتی در بیمه گذاران و کلیه لایه های ذی نفعان این سازمان بالا می‎باشد. بررسی‎ های اولیه نشان می‎دهد نظام فعلی بیمه‎ های کشاورزی، ساختار صندوق، ماموریتها وراهبردها، شیوه های تامین مالی، قوانین و مقررات همگی نیازمند تغییر و بازنگری هستند، لذا ارایه یک مدل نوسازی استراتژیک برای صندوق در دستورکار این تحقیق قرار گرفته است. به‎ منظور رسیدن به مدل، از روش تیوری زمینهای استفاده شده است. ابزار تحقیق مصاحبه نیمه ساخت یافته با خبرگان و ذی‎نفعان این صندوق در سراسر کشور بوده و از کدگذاری و تحلیل‎ های دستی و نرم ‎افزاری به‎ صورت توام برای تحلیل داده‎ های مصاحبه‎ ها استفاده شده است. مدل پارادایمی نهایی؛ عوامل تاثیرگذار بر نوسازی استراتژیک صندوق، شرایط مداخله‎ گر و زمینه‎ای تاثیرگذار بر این نوسازی و درنهایت راهکارها و نتایج حاصل از نوسازی را نشان می‎دهد که در قالب مفاهیم و مقوله‎ ها و روابط آنها ارایه شده ‎اند.

    کلیدواژگان: مدیریت استراتژیک، نوسازی استراتژیک، صندوق بیمه کشاورزی، نظریه داده بنیاد
  • مریم ظفری نسب، زینب گلزاری*، محمد نوریان، سید حسن رضوی صفحات 227-254

    زنان روستایی از پتانسیل قابل توجهی برای مشارکت در فعالیت های اجتماعی-اقتصادی برخوردار هستند و ارتقای توانمندسازی آن ها، موجب حرکت به سمت توسعه می شود. هدف از این پژوهش، شناسایی و تبیین ابعاد و مولفه های توانمندسازی زنان روستایی استان لرستان با رویکرد اکتشافی و استفاده از پژوهش روش های آمیخته کیفی- کمی متوالی است. جامعه آماری مراحل کیفی (تحلیل داده بنیاد) و کمی بعدی مطالعه شامل زنان روستایی شرکت کننده در برنامه های آموزشی- ترویجی سازمان جهاد کشاورزی استان لرستان و کارشناسان حوزه زنان روستایی استان لرستان در سال 1399 است. داده ها از طریق مرور منابع، اجرای مصاحبه گروه متمرکز و پیمایش پرسش نامه ای جمع آوری شد. روایی صوری و محتوایی و پایایی ابزار سنجش با کسب نظر اصلاحی کارشناسان حوزه زنان روستایی و انجام آزمون های مربوطه تایید شد. یافته ها نشان داد که پنج بعد آموزش جامع، ویژگی های فردی- روان شناختی، اقتصادی، ساختاری و اجتماعی- فرهنگی در توانمندسازی زنان روستایی استان لرستان نقش دارند. 52 گویه نیز برای مولفه nهای این ابعاد تبیین شد. بنابراین، توصیه می شود که این ابعاد و مولفه های توانمندسازی برای بهبود کیفیت اجرای پروژه ها و برنامه های ویژه زنان روستایی استان لرستان مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

    کلیدواژگان: توسعه روستایی، توانمندسازی، زنان روستایی، استان لرستان
  • حجت پودینه، صادق اصغری لفمجانی*، حمید حیدری مکرر، محمد پیرانی صفحات 255-282

    امروزه مدیریت منابع آب کشور نقش مهمی در فرایند توسعه پایدار کشور دارد. با وجود خشکسالی های فراوان یکی از به صرفه ترین راه های انتقال آب که هدررفت بسیار کمی دارد انتقال آب با لوله است. هدف این پژوهش، پیش بینی پیامدهای اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی و زیست محیطی طرح انتقال آب با لوله به اراضی کشاورزی در منطقه سیستان است. روش پژوهش حاضر، توصیفی - تحلیلی است که بر اساس مطالعات کتابخانه ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی در سال 1400 انجام شد. اطلاعات مورد نیاز از طریق طراحی و تکمیل پرسش نامه با کمک کارشناسان مرتبط با طرح انتقال آب و خبرگان روستایی جمع‎ آوری و به وسیله مدل ARAS و روش های آماری تجزیه و تحلیل شد. در این راستا، نتایج آزمون فریدمن نشان داد که در سطح اطمینان 99 درصد، اختلاف معنی داری بین سطح پیامدهای منفی طرح در ابعاد مختلف اقتصادی، اجتماعی، کالبدی و زیست محیطی وجود دارد. ازطرف دیگر، نتایج پژوهش در بررسی برآیند کلی پیامدهای مثبت و منفی طرح انتقال آب با لوله به اراضی کشاورزی موید آن است که علی رغم وجود پیامدهای منفی در تمام ابعاد، برآیند کلی پیامدهای مثبت و منفی طرح، مثبت بوده و بیشترین اثرات طرح با میانگین 0/252 و 0/230 به ترتیب مربوط به ابعاد اجتماعی و اقتصادی آن است. با توجه به نتایج حاصل، برای تحقق اهداف طرح و تامین منبع آب پایدار و تمرکز بر کاهش پیامدهای منفی طرح، پیگیری حقابه سیستان از طریق دیپلماسی و تقویت قدرت چانه زنی با کشور افغانستان پیشنهاد می شود.

    کلیدواژگان: انتقال آب، اراضی کشاورزی، پیامد، روستا، سیستان
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  • H. Varmazyari *, F. Ebrahimi Fini, Khalil Kalantari Pages 1-26
    Introduction

    Ecotourism aims to strengthen environmental impacts and improve local living conditions particularly in rural communities, however, proper management of the operations is necessary to preserve and maintain the biological richness of the region as well as the economic progress of local community. The new theoretical perspectives of development consider a very important role for non-governmental organizations in the realization of people-oriented development. Non-governmental organizations participate in the process of planning and developing ecotourism and aim to converge different views and interests. These organizations should have special functions such as travel planning, training of ecotourism tour guides and development of sustainability in the local community. Despite this, until now the factors affecting the success of these organizations in the planning and development of ecotourism in Iran have not been investigated.

    Materials and Methods

    Using grounded theory strategy, this study enumerated the characteristics of successful non-governmental organizations and finally developed the model that explains the success of these organizations. The statistical sample of this study included 37 ecotourism specialists, managers and experts of non-governmental organizations engaged in ecotourism, government officials, and residents of the local community, which were selected purposefully with snowball sampling method. The interview questions were prepared in a semi-structured framework, based on the research questions. To ensure the quality of the research, in addition to triangulation, the strategy of participant feedback was used. Data analysis and interpretation were done through coding in three stages of open, axial and selective coding.

    Results and discussion

    From the analysis of interviews, 64 open codes were derived and from the combination of these codes, six axial codes were obtained. The axial codes included endogenous development, asset-based community development, and codes of conduct of non-governmental organizations, professional characteristics of successful non-governmental organizations, internal structural requirements and requirements of successful projects.Non-governmental organizations should pay attention to endogenous development that starts from the local community and is based mainly on the local knowledge, preferences, strategies, and context. Some of the open codes that construct the axialcode of “endogenous development” include improving the satisfaction of the local community, determining the goal by the local community, assigning control of the project to the local community and ensuring fair benefit-sharing, distributing benefits equitably among local community members, preventing local elite capture, and creating mutual trust in the local community. Also, putting together the nine open codes, such as paying attention to the potential abilities of the local community, rehabilitating the local community and revitalizing the attractions, objectifying the value of the local community's assets, raising sweat in the local community, and dealing with problems based on indigenous knowledge, construct the axial code of  “asset-based community development”.

    Conclusions

    According to the model of our study, non-governmental organizations can promote ecotourism and bring positive impacts in rural areas if they:1- Adopt endogenous and asset-based development approach as the dominant and governing paradigm of their programs and activities;2- Comply with codes of conduct and3- Have a good internal management and professional characteristics.Meanwhile, paying attention to the direct participation and benefit of the local community in planning and managing ecotourism projects and informing the local community about the revenue-generating potential of local assets and attractions is recommended for the success of non-governmental organizations.

    Keywords: NGOs, Ecotourism, Success Model, Grounded Theory
  • S. Yazdani *, H. Noroozi, R. Shakeri Bostanabad Pages 27-50
    Introduction

    Food security is the most important principle for maintaining the health of society, when affecting various dimensions such as political, economic, social and cultural dimensions. Therefore, it is very important to examine the food security situation and identify the factors affecting it, so that practical policy and support solutions can be provided to improve the nutritional status of the society.

    Materials and Methods

    In this study, in order to investigate the factors affecting food security in the provinces of the country, the fractional Probit panel model, which is bounded for the dependent variables, has been used. The boundedness of the dependent variable (the food security index is in the range (1 and 0)), differentiates this model from the common panel data method. The difference of these variables from the point of view of econometrics is that not only do they have a possible outcome, but they include both the outcome of the corner solution and the continuous outcome in the range of zero and one.

    Results and  Discussion

    According to the obtained results, using the fractional Probit panel approach, the variables of Gini coefficient, per capita tax, unemployment and inflation, have a negative and significant sign, and the variables of per capita income and financial development index have a positive and significant sign. Considering the final effect of the Gini coefficient on food security, it is expected that with an increase of one percent in the Gini coefficient, the food security index will decrease by 0.07 percent. Per capita tax, with a final effect of -0.99, shows that with a one percent decrease in this variable, the food security situation increases by 0.99 percent. Considering the positive and significant effect of financial development on food security, with a one percent increase, the food security index will improve by 0.13 percent. With a one percent increase in per capita income, the food security index increases by 0.84 percent. The sign of the inflation variable in this model is negative and it indicates the decrease in food security due to the increase in inflation. In fact, inflation reduces the availability of food by reducing purchasing power and as a result reduces the level of food security, so according to the results, with a one percent increase in inflation, the food security index will decrease by 0.17 percent. In fact, this result can be expressed as considering that the increase in the general level of prices reduces the available income and purchasing power of households, which reduces the economic access to food and food with higher nutritional value and threatens food security. The effect of the unemployment rate variable on food security is negative, which means that with a one percent decrease in the unemployment rate, the food security index will improve by 0.06 percent.

    Conclusions

    Based on the results, considering the final negative effect of the Gini coefficient on food security, it is suggested that the structure of income distribution by the government through implementing targeted and principled policies in line with investment in the provision of facilities and public goods and infrastructure, especially in less developed areas and rural areas should be reviewed and redesigned. The implementation of this policy by increasing the amount of per capita income and more public facilities, in addition to the distribution of income will become more balanced and help to reduce inequalities. Considering the negative effect of per capita tax on food security, it can be said that the effect of indirect tax on food security was greater than the effect of direct tax. In other words, due to the negative impact of indirect taxes on income distribution and its high share in the country's tax revenues, its destructive effect on income distribution has been overcome, and therefore, with the increase of the Gini coefficient and the decrease of available income, the food security situation worsens. Considering the positive and significant effect of financial development on food security, by creating a healthy competitive environment in the banking system and making payment facilities efficient, facilities and credits granted to the economic and production sectors are directed and on the other hand, by using new methods in the financial and capital markets, it will be possible to increase the access of individuals, companies and enterprises to financial tools and facilities in order to improve the performance and level of national production to help improving food security. Also, the results showed that inflation has a negative effect on food security. Inflation, especially high and continuous in Iran's economy, causes uncertainty in investment, lower real interest rates, and more depreciation of capital, which, along with the outflow of capital from the country, in the long term, causes a decrease in food security by reducing the purchasing power of the household. On the other hand, unemployment causes poverty by decreasing the household income, followed by a decrease in food security, which due to the two-way relationship between poverty and the destruction of natural resources leads to problems like soil erosion, water pollution, emission of greenhouse gases and the loss of environmental diversity, which limit production and production resources in the long term, leading to the food security situation to be more endangered.

    Keywords: Food security, Inflation, Gini coefficient, Financial Development, rural areas
  • A. Karami *, M .Ahmadvand, M. Asimeh Pages 51-78
    Introduction

    It is an undeniable principle that any activity done by humans on nature has effects on nature. In fact, these effects are a perspective of human activities and knowing them can show the strengths and weaknesses of programs. Therefore, specifying the type of changes, the factors involved in it and the consequences arising from it can have a significant impact on the better management of the programs and as a result reducing the negative consequences resulting from it and ultimately the successful implementation and stabilization of the programs. Therefore, the aim of the current research was to investigate the social, economic and environmental effects of the Garmabad village watershed project from the perspective of the watershed residents of this area in order to provide a suitable basis for the development of the project by evaluating the effects of the project and preparing and compiling basic solutions.

    Materials and Methods

    This research was a survey-based one. The statistical population of the study included all household heads (N=895) in Garmabad village located in Marvdasht county of Fars province, out of which 112 people were selected as the statistical sample by simple random sampling method. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire within which the face validity was confirmed based on the opinions of a number of subject-matter experts and its reliability was obtained by calculating the Cronbach's alpha coefficient for different parts of the questionnaire (0.65-0.84). The questionnaire consisted of two parts, in the first part, using 50 items in the form of a five-level Likert scale, the perception of the residents of the region about the effects (economic, social and environmental) of the watershed project was investigated, while the second part was allocated to investigate the personal and professional characteristics respondents. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS software. Some methods of descriptive statistics (such as frequency, mean and standard deviation) and inferential statistics (such as exploratory factor analysis) were used to analyze the data.

    Results and Discussion

    The results of factor analysis showed that in the field of environmental effects, four categories of factors such as creating a beautiful landscape and improving of infrastructure, controlling erosion and increasing the pasture area, rainfall productivity, and flood control and improving the village health status were able to explain 67.88% of variance of the effects of the environmental impacts. As a result of implementing the watershed plan with flood control, preventing soil erosion, sedimentation, increasing the area of pastures and vegetation, increasing underground water and wells, increasing water quality, etc., the productivity of water and soil has increased. Therefore, considering the arid and semi-arid conditions of the country and the importance of these two important factors on sustainable development, especially in rural areas, the attention of the government and the authorities for more investments and more principled policies in the field of implementation and comprehensive management of natural resources projects is essential for optimal use of water and soil.In the economic field, five factors including increasing the amount and the level of production, reducing production costs, increasing ownership and assets, increasing credits and rural development, and employment and income generation were the most important economic factors of the watershed management plan, which explained 71.80% of the variance in total. The results of this study show that the implementation of this plan has been able to solve the economic problems of the villagers to a large extent by increasing the amount of production and reducing production costs, increasing job opportunities, etc. Therefore, since the implementation of this project has been evaluated positively in improving the welfare of the villagers, it is better to develop this operation in villages that have the conditions to implement these projects.In the social field, the five factors including participation and cooperation, community stabilization, awareness improvement, institutional pursuit, and cultural exchange were able to explain 69.56% of the variance. According to the results obtained with the implementation of the project, the solidarity and interaction between the people of the village has increased and a suitable ground has been provided for cultural exchanges and tourism development. Therefore, it can be acknowledged that the success of any project depends on social and cultural issues in addition to technical and executive issues, and people's active participation is very effective, especially in watershed management projects.

    Conclusions

    The results of this research generally show that the watershed project had many positive effects on the studied area. Therefore, in order to improve the project, it is recommended to take advantage of the capabilities of local communities and stakeholders in this context, and it is effective to consider the interests of the beneficiaries in designing and implementing the plan, using their local knowledge, using the influence of local leaders to attract the participation of villagers, etc.

    Keywords: assessment of impacts, watershed management plan, Watershed Basin, Garmabad, Fars province
  • A. Movahed *, M. Abdoli, F. Khazaei, M.R. Aboutorabi Zarchi Pages 79-102
    Introduction

    Suburban villages are important because of their spatial and functional proximity, according to their livability level and the role of local management, as well as their own attractions and tourism conditions. In the last two decades, managers and policymakers who were involved in developing such areas, have sought to strengthen and diversify income sources for the residents of these areas and plan to organize activities and programs in suburban areas. One of these sources is the foundation and development of tourism in suburban areas using their own attractions.Suburban tourism is a different aspect of visitors' travel outside their homes and cities to the surrounding areas for vacations, enjoying day and short-term trips, recreation, fishing, and hunting, being in the heart of nature. This includes meetings with friends and relatives. In addition, taking advantage of silence and peace, fresh air, wide open spaces, and escaping from urban congestion are enjoyable.The literature on rural development management shows that institutions, as formal and informal organizations, play an undeniable role in environmental and territorial management behaviors, including village quality. Local administration (including village administration and village Islamic council) can effectively increase the quality of life and tourism capacity. In addition, constructive interactions between local managers and residents play a significant role in the overall development of the village.With the development of livability, the possibility of tension and conflict between people and tourists will decrease, more participation in planning and decision-making in the tourism industry will be made, and the sustainable tourism development will be realized; therefore, it is necessary toinvestigate the role of local management in the development of livability, and then analyze the role of livability in the development of tourism in suburban villages.Allahabad village of Yazd province, because of its close location to the city of Zarch and its relatively long history, when having historical attractions belonging to before Islam and the peaceful coexistence of Zoroastrian and Muslim residents, is in the category of famous and interesting villages of Yazd. Despite the tourism capacities, the local administration's lack of attention to these capacities has caused problems for the village. By identifying weaknesses and being aware of opportunities with the comprehensive cooperation of local managers and residents, the path to achieving the development of livability and tourism in this suburban area can be made smoother. The present research deals with the analysis of rural management of Allahabad in increasing the quality of life and tourism development in this region, and aims to achieve accurate results in line with the purpose of the research.The notable feature of the current research is that it analyses four different dimensions of livability with local management in a village and believes that if there is a direct relationship between local management and the livability of the village in all dimensions, then with the improvement of management, a place can achieve optimal livability and provide the basis for tourism development. Therefore, the present study attempts to address the research gap by examining the relationship between the three factors of local management, livability, and tourism development potential in a village around the city.

    Materials and Methods

    The research method used is a descriptive-correlation type of research in terms of its practical purpose with a survey nature and according to the way of data collection. The statistical population of this research included all the local residents of Allahabad village in Yazd in April 2022 (5573 people based on the census of the whole country in 2015) and 363 people were selected as the research sample by using random sampling and using Cochran's formula.In this research, a questionnaire designed with four sections including variables of local management, economic, social and environmental viability was used in the form of a five-item Likert scale from completely disagree (1) to completely agree (5). The validity of the questionnaire was calculated and confirmed by Cronbach's alpha test. In order to investigate the relationship between research variables, Pearson's correlation coefficient was used and finally the research hypotheses were tested with the structural equation model.

    Results and Discussion

    The average of local administration (village administration and village Islamic council) (M=2.78) in a five-choice spectrum showed that the respondents evaluated local administration (village administration and village Islamic council) at an average level. The average dimensions of economic, social and environmental viability showed that the respondents rated these three variables as average. Economic, social and environmental viability has a significant and direct relationship with local management (village Islamic council).The intensity of the relationship between economic environment and local management (village Islamic council) is reasonable but higher than other variables (r=0.81, p<.001). Social viability is most related to economic viability. Compared to social viability and local management (village administration and village Islamic council), environmental viability is more related to economic viability (r=0.79, p<.001). The results of the correlation prove that with the improvement of the situation of local management (village administration and village Islamic council), the economic, social and environmental viability will also improve. In the final model, although local governance has a direct impact on economic viability, it also has a direct impact on social viability. Another finding showed that local management has a direct impact on environmental viability.

    Conclusions

    The results of the research findings show that economic, social and environmental viability has a direct and meaningful relationship with local management (village administration and village Islamic council), and the intensity of the relationship between economic viability and local management is greater than other variables. Also, the results of examining the correlation of variables show the direct relationship between local management and livability in terms of improving the situation, and the final model of the research confirms the direct relationship between local management and livability dimensions.Examining the relationship between the local management of villages around the city with different aspects of livability comprehensively and the development of tourism as a new source of employment in these human settlements is one of the innovations of the present research. The results of this research regarding the direct and meaningful relationship between rural management and the Islamic Council with livability, especially in the economic dimension, indicate that the managers' attention to the economic components of livability, such as providing the possibility of obtaining tourism jobs for young villagers, using the tourism capacities of the village, improving the level of knowledge and awareness of the residents, emphasizing the preservation of their cultural identity and effective marketing in the field of introducing the positive aspects of tourism in the village of Allahabad, such as its antiquity, proximity to the city, historical attractions and the peaceful coexistence of followers of two different religions, the level of development sustainable tourism have improved the livability index of Allahabad village and consequently it is effective in increasing the quality of life of the villagers and the desire of the young people to stay and preserve their rural identity.

    Keywords: Livability, Rural management, Tourism Development, suburban villages, Allahabad village
  • Sabet ahmad Bawery, Mehdi Karami Dehkordi *, Ghasem Layani Pages 103-132
    Introduction

    The concept of Natural capital has emerged as a crucial element in the economic and social surveys of modern societies. It plays a pivotal role in promoting sustainable rural livelihoods and development across all dimensions. The recognition of natural capital as a valuable asset has gained significant attention in recent years, as it provides a framework for understanding the economic value of natural resources and the services they provide. This concept has become increasingly relevant in the context of sustainable development, as it highlights the importance of preserving and managing natural resources for the benefit of present and future generations. Therefore, policymakers and stakeholders must recognize the significance of natural capital and incorporate it into their decision-making processes to ensure sustainable development. Livelihood capital, which comprises environmental, social, physical, human, and financial capital, is a fundamental component of people's livelihoods, particularly those who are impoverished. These capitals are the cornerstone of sustainable livelihoods and are essential factors for local poor communities. Understanding the livelihood status of households and their access to livelihood funds is crucial for advancing development goals in rural areas, particularly in developing countries. It is one of the most significant and influential platforms for achieving this objective. Upon reviewing previous literature, it is evident that the application of a system approach in analyzing sustainable rural livelihoods has not received adequate attention. Given that the discussion of sustainable rural livelihoods involves different capitals, each comprising interrelated variables, neglecting the interrelationships between these variables may not be effective in addressing the issues at hand. Furthermore, disregarding feedback loops and dynamic complexity in a system can lead to political resistance. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the role of natural capital in sustainable rural development using a systemic approach.

    Materials and Methods

    System dynamics is a method that has been used to study and investigate the relationships between separate systems that are at the same time closely connected and enjoy dynamics in behavior. Dynamic simulation is useful for modeling the behavior of a system and observing its reaction to various changes over time. One of the most important features of the dynamic system is considering an endogenous structure of the studied system to show the reaction of different elements of the system on each other and the feedback effects between them. This approach enables us to gain a deeper understanding of the system's behavior and identify the factors that influence it. This study aims to conduct an analysis and provide an explanation of the natural capital of sustainable rural livelihoods using a systems thinking approach. The first step involved identifying the key variables of the system through a questionnaire and expert interviews in the study area. Subsequently, a new questionnaire was designed, and 120 residents in Qarabagh city, Ghazni province in Afghanistan were interviewed using Cochran's formula and targeted sampling via the snowball technique. The assessment of the region's situation was conducted in terms of key environmental asset variables.

    Results and Discussion

    The study suggests that the availability of water and forest per capita is likely to decrease due to factors such as population growth, deforestation for agriculture, fuel and charcoal extraction, livestock grazing, and fire. Mismanagement of natural areas has led to their destruction and reduction. Efforts to stop and reduce this process have been insufficient and unscientific. Deforestation has irreversible consequences and will significantly impact the natural ecosystem and sustainable rural livelihoods in the region. Afghanistan is facing severe water problems due to frequent droughts and excessive extraction of surface and underground water. The country's water situation has reached a critical level, and it is essential to invest in different parts of the water area to protect the surface and underground water sources. The reduction of desired variables is related to the increase in population and the need for more water and food resources. The development of the agricultural sub-sector can lead to over-harvesting of water resources and destruction of the forest. Therefore, natural resource management policies should be given more attention to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods. Water demand management is a practical and quick step in controlling water resources. Demand-oriented management policies, such as setting a reasonable tariff for water and improving irrigation technology, should be put on the agenda. To preserve and protect forest resources, caretakers should be made aware of the issue and executive bodies should stay more coordinated. Other solutions include developing fodder cultivation for livestock in low-yielding rainfed areas, expanding research, organizing environmental organizations, implementing successful forest management plans, attracting private sector investment, continuing the implementation of forestry projects, and planting productive forest trees in the empty parts of the forest by the residents. Identifying the state of environmental (natural) capital helps planners design rural development strategies and sustainable livelihoods with the capacities of the region.

    Conclusions

    Natural capital is an essential predictive component that provides the basis for rural development. Therefore, effective measures should be taken to strengthen environmental capital, and attention should be paid to it in formal and informal curricula. It seems that the current policies in the study area in the field of environmental asset management are not in line with achieving the development of sustainable rural livelihood. The government should invest in the development of irrigation technology to support the plans that seek to save available water while helping the development of the agricultural.

    Keywords: Sustainable Rural Livelihood, Natural Capital, System Dynamic, simulation, Afghanistan
  • Ahmad Yaghoubi Farani *, Saeid Karimi, Majid Reza Khodaverdian, Faezeh Mohammadi Nejad Pages 133-164

    The main objective of this descriptive-analytical survey was to assess the entrepreneurial competencies of rural women facilitators and to develop a framework for entrepreneurial competencies in Hamedan, Qom and Markazi provinces. The statistical population included all rural women facilitators in these three provinces (N=473), out of which 212 people were selected as the study sample based on Cochran's formula. Data were collected through a questionnaire that its validity was confirmed by a panel of experts and its reliability was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling were used to analyze and validate the proposed competencies framework with the help of Smart-PLS software. Based on the results, the women facilitators had all the entrepreneurial competences in a medium to high level. Among the proposed competences, moral competence, personal competence and technical competence were in the first to third priorities, respectively. The results of factor analysis for the validity of the competencies framework also showed that the twelve components of competencies have the accuracy to evaluate and predict the entrepreneurial competencies of rural women and the competencies framework in the research was approved. Generally, it can be concluded that the women facilitators have a desirable variety of entrepreneurial competencies. Therefore, it can be expected that there is the necessary capability and capacity in women facilitators to play an effective role in the process of entrepreneurship development and employment of rural women.

    Keywords: entrepreneurship, rural women, Women facilitator, Entrepreneurial competencies, Rural development
  • S.F. Emami *, Majid YASOURI Pages 165-196

    The current research, with a future-research approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the state of rural tourism in Gilan province and examines the extent and how these factors influence each other. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Based on this, in the first step, the influential indicators and components in this field were collected in different dimensions (socio-cultural, economic, planning and management, infrastructural and service, and natural factors). After collecting the data and identifying the primary variables in the framework of the Delphi model, 40 questionnaires were distributed exclusively among the executive and academic elites of Gilan province (statistical research community), who had sufficient expertise and experience in tourism issues. The results of the research indicate that the selected factors have influenced each other in more than 92% of cases. And based on the quantitative results of experts, the situation of rural tourism in Gilan province is somewhat unstable and the current conditions governing the rural tourism system will change drastically in the near future.

    Keywords: Rural Tourism, future research, Effective factors, Gilan Province
  • Ameneh Khadivar *, Leili Niakan Pages 197-226

    Agricultural Insurance Fund has a strategic and fundamental role in managing the risk of the country's agricultural sector. Although the management and transfer of an important part of agricultural risks is currently done by this fund, but the agricultural insurance system, structure and scope of authority of this group is not commensurate with the needs of today and the level of dissatisfaction among insurers and all stakeholders of this organization is high. Preliminary studies show that the current agricultural insurance system, fund structure, missions and strategies, financing methods, rules and regulations all need to be changed and revised. Due to the wide range of issues and the key role of the Agricultural Insurance Fund, in order to improve performance and improve services in providing services to the community of insurers, the strategic renewal of the fund was on the agenda of managers. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive model for strategic renewal in this organization. In order to achieve the model, grounded theory approach has been used. The research tool is semi-structured interviews with experts and stakeholders of this fund throughout the country . Both manual and software analysis have been used to analyze the interview data. The final paradigm model shows the factors affecting the strategic renewal of the fund, the intervening and contextual conditions affecting this renewal, and finally the strategies and results of the modernization that are presented in the form of concepts and categories

    Keywords: strategic management, Strategic Renewal, Agricultural Insurance Fund, Grounded Theory
  • M. Zafarinasab, Z. Golzari *, M. Nourian, S.H. Razavi Pages 227-254
    Introduction

    It is very clear that in today's world, empowered women are one of the main indicators of the superiority of a society over other societies, because they will significantly increase individual performance to achieve society's goals. A developed society needs capable women so that they can create good and novel ideas and then realize them by participating in decision-makings and activities. Rural women, as hidden workers, play a vital role in home and farm activities, especially in planting, growing, harvesting, and processing livestock products. By empowering rural women, they can find appropriate solutions for problems in terms of technical, skill, interaction, etc. In other words, capable rural women can understand their duties well before they are told what to do . Empowerment strategies include equal access to opportunities, resources, credits, and education. Studies show that by empowering women, the whole society finds benefits, because empowered rural women expand the acquired capabilities in the family. They act like catalysts. By transferring the acquired abilities to others, on the one hand, the time to reach the development goals is reduced, and on the other hand, the desired goals are achieved more easily.

    Materials and Methods

    The present research is a sequential qualitative-quantitative mixed research with an exploratory approach. In the qualitative part, the dimensions and components of rural women's empowerment were first extracted using the meta-composite method. Due to the existence of an information gap in the data, an attempt was made to resolve this gap by using the foundation's data theory. The population of this phase of the research to conduct interview of a focus group included experts in the field of women (N=64) and a number of rural women who work in the projects of the Agriculture-Jahad Organization (N=36324). The categories extracted from the qualitative section were converted into questionnaire items, and in the quantitative section, they were validated with the help of a questionnaire survey and factor analysis. The population of the quantitative section included 80 experts from the Office of Rural Women Affairs and the service centers of Lorestan province. Due to the limited statistical population, all of them were considered as samples. In this phase, a five-item Likert scale was used to measure the importance of the measurement items. Ensuring the quality of the questionnaire, its validity and reliability were checked. The face validity of the questionnaire was checked and confirmed by providing corrective opinions of relevant experts and professors. Cronbach's alpha test was also used to check the reliability. The results showed that the questionnaire has acceptable reliability and all alpha values are higher than 0.70

    Results and Discussion

    The findings in the metacomposition section showed that 14 survey sources, 12 review sources, 13 descriptive sources, and 1 causal-comparative source were used in metacomposition, 70% of which had a quantitative approach, 27% a qualitative approach, and 3% enjoyed a mixed approach. Also, research tools included 23% of sources and documents; 57%, questionnaire; 10% interviews and 10% a combination of questionnaires and interviews. The results of the analysis in the quantitative part are chi-square value of 1.27 degrees of freedom, which is at the optimal threshold of less than 3. Also, the root mean square error of estimation (RMSEA) should be less than 0.08, which is 0.051 and acceptable. The values of goodness of fit indices of GFI and AGFI, NFI and CFI should also be more than 0.90, which in the present study are 0.97, 0.95, 0.97 and 0.98, respectively, and are at the optimal level. Therefore, the dimensions and components obtained from the qualitative step of the study have the necessary quality to present the rural women's empowerment model of Lorestan province.The t value of all indicators is higher than 1.96 and significant at the level of less than 0.05. Also, the values of the factor loadings showed that all the measurement items are at an acceptable level above 0.5. The values of Cronbach's alpha were higher than 0.7 and were acceptable. The calculation of composite reliability (CR) and average variance extracted (AVE) values and their placement at higher levels than the acceptance threshold of 0.7 and 0.5, respectively, also construct the validity. In order to check the diagnostic validity, the Fornell-Larker criterion was used. The investigation showed that the square root of the AVE values is all greater than the internal correlation values between the other components of the model at a significance level of less than 0.05. This finding shows how different the measurement items of one component are from other components. Based on this, the model has the necessary diagnostic validity.

    Conclusions

    In this research, it has been tried to identify and explain the dimensions and components of rural women's empowerment in Lorestan province. The findings of this research showed that although some dimensions of rural women's empowerment are consistent with the results of previous literature (such as educational, structural and socio-cultural dimensions); it is diverted in parts due to having a comprehensive, broad and context-oriented view on the problem of explaining and classifying the dimensions and components of rural women's empowerment through successive quantitative and qualitative mixed studies and including the benefit of focus group interviews with rural women and experts. The field of rural women is distinguished from other conducted researches. Based on this, the main dimensions of empowerment of rural women in Lorestan province include five dimensions of comprehensive education, individual-cognitive, economic, structural and socio-cultural, which have been reported in the findings of some previous researches. Therefore, the obtained results show double importance of these dimensions in the issue of empowering rural women and also achieving rural development. In addition, 52 items were identified, explained and classified for the twelve components of these dimensions.

    Keywords: Rural development, Empowerment, rural women, Lorestan province
  • H. Pudineh, S. Asghari Lafmejani *, H. Heidari Mokrar, M. Pirani Pages 255-282
    Introduction

    Today, the management of water resources plays an important role in the country's sustainable development process. Despite the many droughts, one of the most economical ways of transporting water with very little wastage is transporting water with pipes. Due to the special climate of southeast Iran, the Sistan region has always suffered from limited water resources, and due to its special geological conditions and the lack of access to underground water and the absence of an internal watershed, it is dependent on the water of the Hirmand river, whose watershed is in Afghanistan. The condition of this catchment area due to the recent droughts, the increase in population and the amount of water taken from this river, the construction of numerous dams, and the increase in the cultivated area has caused the amount of water delivered to Sistan not to be based on the agreements between the two countries, which has caused a water crisis in the Sistan region. The purpose of this research is to predict the economic, social, physical and environmental consequences of the plan to transfer water through pipes to agricultural lands in Sistan region.

    Materials and Methods

    The current research method is descriptive-analytical and based on library, documentary and survey studies and was investigated in 1400. The required information was collected by designing and completing a questionnaire with the help of experts related to the water transfer project and rural experts and was analyzed by ARAS model and statistical methods and SPSS and ArcGIS software.

    Results and Discussion

    The results of the research, based on the severity of the consequences of the water transfer project, confirm that rural districts located in the east of the Sistan region (including rural districts of Khajea Ahmad, Zahak, Khamak and Jazinak, which are adjacent to the entrance of the Hirmand river to this region) have the highest amount of negative effects of the implementation of the water transfer project. Also, the results of the Friedman test show that at the level of 99% confidence, there is a significant difference between the level of negative consequences of the plan in different economic, social, physical and environmental dimensions. On the other hand, the results of the research in examining the overall results of the positive and negative consequences of the plan to transfer water by pipes to agricultural lands confirm that despite the existence of negative consequences in all dimensions, the overall results of the plan are positive and the most effects of the plan with averages of 0.252 and 0.230 are related to its social and economic dimensions, respectively.

    Conclusions

    Despite the fact that the implementation of the piped water transfer project to agricultural lands is aimed at the fair distribution of incoming water from Afghanistan (stored in the Nimha well) and in order to prevent the migration of rural households in Sistan and  despite the predominance of short-term positive consequences over the negative aspects of the plan, it will be inevitable to accept its long-term negative consequences, which requires the adoption of optimal approaches to reduce negative consequences. According to the results, in order to achieve the goals of the plan and provide a sustainable water source and focus on reducing the negative consequences of the plan, it is suggested to pursue Sistan's water rights through diplomacy and strengthening bargaining power with Afghans.

    Keywords: Water Transfer, Agricultural Lands, outcome, Village, Sistan