فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 62 (تابستان 1391)

Credit market، as a main component of financial market، plays a significant role in building up the savings and providing financial facilities for the firms. Betterknowledge of the influential factors in the development of this market، not only enhances the analytical capability of researchers but also acts as a suitable guide for policy-makers. This study، having used the depth of credit information indexand strength of legal right index، as provided by the World Bank، and the data of 42 developing countries during (2005-2008)، makes an empirical study to determine whether increase in legal support of creditors in bankruptcy، collateral law and borrowers rights in collateral law، as well as the quality of the shared credit information and vastness of their gathering domain، have a meaningful effect on credit market development or not. This econometric model doesn''t reject this hypothesis، that is، the countries that provide higher legal support for creditors in bankruptcy and in collateral law and provide further protection of borrowers'' rights in collateral rights have better developed credit markets. Moreover، the credit market in countries where the shared credit information is collected from vaster sources and enjoy higher quality، are more developed. Regarding the numerous problems of the state firms in having access to credit، carrying out reforms to enhance the strength of legal rights index and the depth of credit information index not only improves the status of Iran in these indexes but also may be a positivestep toward the development of credit market.

Presence of government in economy، particularly after Great Depression in the 1930s،following Keynes theory، has had different consequences for the economy. The governments، using appropriate fiscal instruments، have made considerable contribution to capital formation، economic growth، economic stability، employment، equality and proper allocation and mobilization of resources. On the other hand، inappropriate interventions of governments in economy can cause some undesirable results such as corruption، reduction in private investment، rent seeking and so on. Therefore، the volume of government activities has been a matter of interest to experts and economists in recent decades. Making investments، as an integral component of aggregate demand and a pillar of economic development، has been affected by the activities of the public sector. This paper examines the relationship between government expenditures and private investments in construction sector for the time period (1970-2007). The main difference between this study and other researches in this field، in the country، is the attention given to the mode of financing costs in the model. The long term coefficients represent that capital expenditures on machinery and construction have crowding-in and crowding-out effects، respectively، on private investment in construction sector. Capital expenditures on machinery are more effective، if financed by tax revenues، while capital spending on construction is more effective when the non-tax sources are provided. The government expenditure has crowding-in effect when financed by tax،while the expenditure does not have significant effect when financed by non-tax resources.

This paper applies Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory to examine the plausibility of a currency union among Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) member states، using the Fuzzy C-Mean (FCM) Clustering Algorithm technique. In other words، this paper investigates the degree of homogeneity of ECO member states during two periods of (1992-1999) and (2000-2010)، using the six OCA Criteria. The results of the study indicate that ECO states، based on the OCA criteria، are not sufficiently and thoroughly homogeneous to be categorized in the same cluster. On the whole، the OCA criteria mean of ECO states show improvement، when passing from the first period to the second period. Homogeneity of OCA criteria reflects an increase، too. In sum، this paper shows that، from the first period to the second period، homogeneity of ECO states، and due to the fact that clustering has moved towards clustering with fewer clusters، has relatively increased.

According to international trade theories، the main cause of trade is the difference in accessibility and enjoyment of production factors. In fact، countries produce and export the products which they have easy access to abundant production factors. Energy، as a main factor of production، is no exception. Therefore، since Iran enjoys abundant energy resources، it is expected that the majority of its exporting products be energy intensive. Employing the Johansen and Juselius co-integration method، this paper investigates the long run and short run relationship between consumption of energy in industrial sector and the level of industrial export in Iran during 1970- 2007. The research results reveal that، in the long run، there exists، among other things، a strong connection between energy consumption in industrial sector and industrial exports. While in the short run، this variable doesn''t play a significant role in industrial export supply.

This paper investigates the effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth، taking the role of institutional quality into consideration. For this purpose، the effects of institutional quality، such as government effectiveness، control of corruption، voice & accountability and rule of law، along with resource abundance on economic growth in major oil economies، have been studied by using panel data technique over the period (1996-2010). The empirical results indicate that institutional quality، in these countries، has a significant positive effect on economic growth، while resource abundance inversely affects the economic growth. Besides، natural resource abundance has reduced institutional quality. So، natural resource abundance with poor institutional quality، pushing the country into a vicious circle، has reduced further the economic growth. The key recommendation is to transform the oil revenue management model for enhancing institutional quality and، consequently، getting out of the vicious circle، in order to expedite and achieve sustainable economic growth.

This article investigates the impacts of internal and external shocks on inflation in Iran by using Vector Auto regression (VAR) model. The data have been captured during (1973-2007). The results of VAR model indicate a negative relationship between inflation and increase of output، on the one hand، and positive relationship between inflation and other variables (foreign currency growth rate، liquidity increase and growth in CPI and imported services prices)، on the other hand. The results of VAR model also show that the negative impact of output on inflation in second lag exceeds the positive impact of money supply on inflation in second lag. The Impulse –responses functions (IRF) approve the above، too. Besides،the variance decomposition indicates that in the short run، the contribution of exchange rate on inflation is more than other variables، while in the long run، growth of output and increase in liquidity make the biggest contribution in the explanation of inflation. In sum، output and liquidity have persistent impact on inflation in Iran.

Tax Revenues stand among the most important financial resources for the governments، and an effective instrument for adopting fiscal policies for most countries. Comparing other sources of revenues with tax، as the most important and most stable source of revenue for the governments، shows that the higher the contribution of tax in government spending، the less the undesirable economic consequences would be. Taking the importance of tax into consideration and regarding the positive and negative consequences of globalization trend، this aper employs a logarithm model to study tax revenues and impacts of globalization index، as well as other macroeconomic variables، using an Auto- Regressive Distributed Lag Model، for the time period of (1973-2006). The Long Run Coefficients and Co integration among variables with the Error Correction Model is assessed too. The results indicate a straight relation among them. The impact of this variable is also evaluated by measuring capital flight with ECM and ARDL models. The results، again، reflect a positive relation between capital flight and tax revenues.

This paper investigates the potential threshold effects of the relationship between per capita Energy consumption and national income. Using a panel threshold regression model، we derive country-specific and time-specific income elasticity for 13 OPEC countries over the period (1980–2008). The results show that the income elasticity of energy consumption for these countries is less than 1. Furthermore، the relationship between energy consumption and income seems rather nonlinear، changing over time and across countries. We see a fall of elasticity when the income level increases. More precisely، it is an inverted-U-shaped curve، indicating that the fall is more important when the income level is relatively high.

This paper studies efficiency of selected branches of Bank Saderat in Tehran province، using data envelopment analysis method and the intermediate attitude and variable return to scale assumption. The sample included 294 of supervisory branches of Tehran province. The efficiency of two groups of branches was measured: one group included branches with only superior، first، second and thirddegree ratings. The second group consisted of branches whose rating during (2004-2007) remained unchanged. Efficiency of each type of branches was separately measured for the time period (2004-2007). To measure the efficiency of branches، as input، the number of personnel and value of deposits and assets were taken into consideration. For output، the not–imposed facilities extended to private sector، the value of guarantees issued and the outstanding debts were considered. The results show that the trend of average efficiency for all ratings is the same، in a way that during (2004-2007)، the average technical efficiency experienced a decreasing trend، but increased in 2007 again.