فهرست مطالب ابوالقاسم گل خندان

The main purpose of this research is to experimentally investigate the asymmetric effect of global indicators of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and Economic Uncertainty (EU) on the oil rent in Iran using seasonal data of the period 1993:1-2021:1. For this purpose, the global GPR index provided by Caldara & Iacoviello (2018) which is based on newspaper coverage of geopolitical tensions and the global EU index provided by Ahir et al. (2018) which is based on the frequency of the word uncertainty (and its types) in the country reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit has been used. The variables of the oil production and the global index of real economic activity are also included in the model as control variables. The results of Sam et al.'s (2019) augmented bounds cointegration test confirm the existence of a strong asymmetric long-term equilibrium relationship between model variables. The results of the estimation of the model using Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) show that in the long and short term, the effect of positive GPR shocks on the share of oil rent in GDP is positive and significant, and this effect is negative and significant for negative GPR shocks. Also, the effect of positive GPR shocks on the share of oil rent in GDP is greater than the effect of negative GPR shocks (confirming the asymmetric effect of GPR). Regarding the global index of economic uncertainty, the estimation results show that positive EU shocks have a negative and significant effect in the long and short term, and negative EU shocks have a insignificant effect in the long term and a positive and significant effect in the short term on the share of oil rent in GDP (confirming the asymmetric effect of EU). Based on the other results, the increase in oil production and the global index of real economic activity have a positive and significant effect on the share of oil rent in GDP, according to theoretical expectations.

Globalization has been rising over the years and the trend seems perpetual. Ideas, technology, resources and final goods are progressively mobile across international borders. Consequently, the economic conditions in most developing countries are not exclusively decided by internal policies and market situations. The world continues to witness intensified interdependence and competition between economies in addition to more benefits to developing countries in terms of more access to international markets, intensify technology transfer from more developed nations. On the other hand, nowadays militarization continues under the impact of technological advances, infrastructural development, geopolitical competition and growth in troop size. In this regard, one of the important economic debates is whether globalization leads to the expansion of militarization (positive causality from globalization to militarization) or helps to control it and promote peace (negative causality from globalization to militarization)? Or vice versa, is it the militarization that slows down the process of globalization (negative causality from militarization to globalization) or does it enable the presence in international markets (positive causality from militarization to globalization)?According to these points, the aim of this paper is to examine the causality between globalization and militarization for the 12 Middle East countries that have the highest level of militarization in this region over the period 2000-2020.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

There are arguments in favour of positive impact of globalisation on military expenditure. For instance, it is argued that globalisation stimulates defense spending over social expenditure. Moreover, security concessions in free trade arrangements makes it easy for governments to expand military expenditure, but put restrictions on social expenditure. There are arguments in favour of the negative impact of globalisation on military spending. It is opined that military expenditure should fall significantly due to economic liberalisation and globalization. With the rising quest for the acquisition of wealth through trade and economic liberalisation, countries are progressively hesitant to use military means to resolve inter-state disputes. Furthermore, with the emergence of the unparalleled forces of globalisation, particularly after the Cold War ended, the function of the state as provider of security is believed to be on the decrease.Moreover, the reverse causation can also be applicable that is, in the presence of conflict and civil war the governments increase their military expenditures in order to promote the nation state and enhancing their territorial jurisdictions. As a result, internationalization or global integration needs to be forgone. In contrast to the increase in militarization due to the need to import technology and advanced weapons as well as the export of manufactured weapons, it enables the presence in international markets, which leads to the improvement of the level of globalization.

The data used in this study covers the period 2000–2020 for the 12 Middle East countries that have the highest level of militarization in this region (Turkey, UAE, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Israel). The chosen time period stems from the availability of data. The variables used in this study include the global militarization index (MIL), the overall globalization index (GLOB), and per capita real GDP (GDPC) as a control variable. The overall globalization index includes economic, social, and political globalization. The economic globalization (36%) consists of actual flows, trade and capital account restrictions. The social globalization (38%) involves data on personal contact, information flows, and cultural proximity. The political globalization (26%) consists of number of embassies in the country, membership in international organizations, participation in UN security-council missions, and international treaties. The variables are expressed in log forms. Data is obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, KOF Swiss Economic Institute’s overall globalization index, and Bonn International Center for Conversation (BICC).The estimation of the model has also been done by using the causality test in heterogeneous mixed panels (Presented by Emirmahmutoglu & Kose (2011)), which is based on the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model and Wald tests with specific bootstrap critical values for each country. The panel causality method presented by Emirmahmutoglu & Kose (2011) consists of a system, including two sets of equations as follows: In the above relationship, y indicates globalization and x refers to militarization. N is the number of panel members (j=1,..,N), t is the time period (t=1,..,T), l is the optimal lag length and  is the maximum degree of stationary of the model variables between each of the panel members. To test for Granger causality in this system, alternative causal relations for each country are likely to be found: (1) there is one-way Granger causality from X to Y if not all are zero, but all are zero; (2) there is one-way Granger causality from Y to X if all are zero, but not all are zero; (3) there is two-way Granger causality between X and Y if neither nor are zero; and (4) there is no Granger causality between X and Y if all and are zero.

Empirical results show the existence of a positive one-way causality relationship from the side of militarization to globalization (the hypothesis of militarization leading to an increase in globalization) in Egypt and Israel, a negative one-way causality relationship from the side of militarization to globalization (the hypothesis of militarization leading to a decrease in globalization) in the countries of Turkey and the UAE, a negative one-way causality relationship from globalization to militarization (hypothesis of globalization leads to limiting militarization) in the country of Oman, a negative two-way causality relationship between militarization and globalization (feedback hypothesis) in the country of Kuwait and non-causality relationship between militarization and globalization (neutral hypothesis) for the countries of Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Also, the non-causality relationship between globalization and militarization (or the neutral hypothesis) is confirmed for the total panel.

CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

In general, based on the results, it can be said that globalization does not affect the process of militarization in the countries of the Middle East region and is not a threat to security in the countries of this region. Therefore, through globalization and moving towards an open economy, the countries of this region can provide the necessary platforms for things like attracting technology, capital and financial resources, regional and global arrangements, and joint investment in the fields of knowledge; Without this issue being a serious threat to security and the level of militarization in the Middle East region. Also, it is suggested that in the future studies, a more detailed examination of the research subject will be done by separating globalization into economic, political and social globalization types.

This study examines the structure and the degree of concentration of the global arms market during the 2015-2021 period. To achieve this purpose, it draws on the SIPRI arms industries database concerning the sales of the top 100 arms-producing and military services companies in the world to determine the market share of various countries during the years under review. Accordingly, to determine the degree of market concentration and the structure of the global arms market at the country level, the study analyses various absolute and relative concentration indices including the concentration ratio of the top k-country, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Hanna-Kay index, Hall-Tiedman index, Rosenbluth index, the extensive industrial concentration index, Hause index, U index, relative entropy index, logarithmic variance of country size and Gini coefficient.The results obtained indicate that based on concentration indicators, market concentration in the arms industry has increased slightly during the period understudy. Furthermore, the intensity of market concentration in the arms industry is very high and the structure of the arms market can be described as a closed multilateral monopoly.

Free riding in arms exports refers to the phenomenon wherein arms-exporting countries can reduce their military spending by exporting arms and military equipment to their allies. This allows them to benefit from the positive security effects created by these countries. The main objective of this article is to analyze the occurrence of free riding in arms exports among NATO countries, which is considered the largest military treaty in the world, during the period from 1995 to 2018.

The research method used is descriptive and analytical. The description part utilizes the Document method, while the analysis part relies on econometric concepts. In order to achieve the research purpose, the impact of arms exports between NATO member countries on their military expenditure, along with other influential factors, has been modeled using static panel and dynamic panel models.

Empirical results using fixed effects (FE) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators show that arms exports from NATO member countries to other member countries of this treaty had a significant negative effect on military expenditure. Other results also indicate that other factors affecting the military expenditures of NATO countries are significant and have the expected sign, which confirms the robustness of the results.

Originality: 

it can be said that exporting weapons to allied military countries not only generates foreign exchange earnings but also reduces military expenditure. This reduction allows for the reallocation of these costs to other sectors that stimulate economic growth through the creation of positive security externalities effects.

In this article, an attempt has been made to empirically examine the effect of institutional quality on the occurrence of civil armed conflicts in countries with oil revenues. For this purpose, the effect of good governance and its main components (as indicators of institutional quality measurement) along with the abundance of oil resources on the occurrence of civil armed conflict in 68 oil exporting countries during the period of 1995-2019 has been investigated. T Empirical results using the logit model show that during the period under review, the abundance of oil resources has a positive and significant effect and good governance indicators have a negative and significant effect on civil armed conflict. Meanwhile, in the presence of good governance indicators, the positive effect of abundance of oil resources on civil armed conflict is reduced. In addition, among the components that make up the good governance index, the transparency and political stability component compared to its other components has the greatest effect in reducing the occurrence of civil armed conflict, and as well as reducing the positive effect of the abundance of oil resources on civil armed conflict in the studied countries. Based on the experimental results obtained, the most important policy recommendation of this article is to provide the necessary platforms to fulfill the requirements of good governance in oil exporting countries in order to reduce the occurrence of civil conflicts and the political curse of natural resources.

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the cyclical behavior of public health expenditures and its effect on health outcomes indicators in 50 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) during the years 2000-2019. For this purpose, the Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF) filter was used to extract the cyclical trend and the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimator was used to estimate the models. The results show that the average value of the cyclical parameter in the studied countries is 0.121, and public health expenditures had pro-cyclical behavior in 29 countries and counter-cyclical behavior in 21 countries. Also, increasing the cyclical parameter (increase in pro-cyclical behavior) of public health expenditures has a significant and negative effect on health outcomes and leads to an increase in the under-five mortality rate (with an estimated coefficient of 0.081) and a decrease in life expectancy (with an estimated coefficient of -0.022) in OIC countries. The results of the estimation of factors affecting the cyclical parameter also show that increasing the share of public health expenditures of the total public expenditures, increasing the weight of social security funds in health budgets and improving institutional quality led to a decrease in the pro-cyclical behavior of public health expenditures and increasing the level of democracy leads to its increase.

Using a smooth transition regression (STR) model, this article empirically investigated the effect of oil resources abundance on the internal conflict risk (hypothesis the political curse of oil resources) in Iran with regard to the role of fiscal decentralization during the period of 1994-2019. Also, including a transfer function with a threshold parameter that represents a two-regime model is sufficient to specify the nonlinear relationship between the studied variables. The results show that the threshold level is 25.14 and the slope parameter is estimated at 12.75. In the first regime, oil rent had a positive and significant effect on the internal conflict risk (confirming hypothesis the political curse of oil resources); But with increase the fiscal decentralization index and entering the second regime, this positive effect decreases. Also, in the second regime, where fiscal decentralization is above its threshold, the effect of institutional quality indicators and fiscal decentralization in reducing the internal conflict risk is strengthened and the effect of regional inequality in increasing the internal conflict risk is weakened. These results show the important role of fiscal decentralization in reducing the internal conflict risk in the oil country of Iran.

Civil conflict risk shows the possibility of armed confrontation with the government in its various forms. This research tried to investigate the factors affecting on the civil conflict risk with an Emphasis on the natural resource abundance and interactive effects in 87 countries of the world during the period of 2000-2018 using the dynamic panel data approach. Experimental results using System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) show that the effect of natural resource abundance on the civil conflict risk is positive and significant, and this effect is negative and significant for indicators of institutional quality, militarization and decentralization. Also, the positive effect of the natural resource abundance on the civil conflict risk decreases in the presence of good institutions and militarization and increases with the application of decentralization policy. According to other results, the variables of per capita income and the share of arable land from the total area of the country have a negative and significant effect, and population and religious and racial tensions have a positive and significant effect on the civil conflict risk in the studied countries.

Considering the significant increase in the public debt burden in Iran over the past years and considering the dependence of the government's budget on revenues from oil sales, this study investigated the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of oil rent on public debt in Iran during the years 1996-2021. For this purpose, the augmented bounds cointegration test and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) estimator have been used. The results show that the short-term and long-term effect of the increase in the share of oil rent from GDP on the share of public debt from GDP )public debt burden index) is negative and significant and this effect is positive and significant for the decrease impulses; In such a way that the size of effects of increasing impulses is smaller than the effects of decreasing impulses (confirmation of asymmetric effects). The results of the asymmetric Granger causality test also show the existence of a causal relationship from the increasing impulses of the public debt burden to the increasing impulses of the share of oil rent from GDP, which confirms that high levels of public debt in the country lead to the faster extraction and sale of oil resources. According to other results, economic growth has a negative and significant effect, the share of consumption expenditure in GDP has a positive and significant effect, and inflation has an insignificant effect on the public debt burden in Iran. Based on this, regulating and limiting the level of public borrowing during periods of booming oil revenues, transferring natural resource revenues through the financial system to the real sector, and adopting anti-corruption policies to prevent the deviation and waste of oil revenues in order to have a greater effect of oil rent on public debts and on the other hand, the control of public debts and the correct management of the ratio of debt to GDP in order to reduce the speed of extraction and sale of oil resources are the most important policy recommendations of this research.

The primary objective of this research is to examine the symmetrical and non-linear impact of political stability on the environmental quality in Iran from 1990 to 2020. For this purpose, the model estimation has been conducted using the Multiple Asymmetric Thresholds NARDL (MTANARDL). The results of the MATNARDL estimator show that both short-term and long-term positive shocks in the political risk index have a significant and positive impact on the ecological footprint. This effect is observed in both small-scale (quantile less than the τ30 threshold) and medium-scale (quantile between the τ30 and τ70 thresholds) analyses. However, when it comes to large-scale shocks (quantile less than the τ70 threshold), the effect on the ecological footprint is negative. In addition, the negative shocks of the political risk index in all three scales - small, medium, and large - do not have a significant effect on the ecological footprint in the short and long term. Based on this, it can be said that the effect of political risk on the ecological footprint in Iran is asymmetric, and only with a significant (large) increase in political stability, we can see a reduction in the ecological footprint in the country.

The statistical analysis of political instability indicators among the Mesopotamian countries shows that most of the countries in this region are in an unfavorable situation. This is while political instability directly and indirectly affects economic growth through various channels. Based on this, the main purpose of the current study is to investigate the impact of various indicators of political instability on the economic growth of the Mesopotamian countries during the years 2002-2021. For this purpose, four indicators of political instability including ICRG political risk, armed conflict, political stability and the absence of violence and the number of terrorist attacks have been used in the form of an economic growth model. Also, the estimation of the model has been done using the panel data analysis method and the Fixed Effects (FE) estimator. The results show that, according to the theoretical expectation, political instability has a negative and significant impact on the economic growth of the Mesopotamian countries, which emphasizes the necessity of creating a stable political environment in these countries in order to achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth. Based on other results, the impact of physical capital and human capital indicators on economic growth has been positive and significant; while the impact of inflation, military expenditure, rent of natural resources and population growth on the economic growth of the studied countries is negative and significant.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric causality relationship between three variables of global geopolitical risk index, crude oil price and Middle East region's defense expenditures during the years 1988-2021. For this purpose, the Granger causality test of Hatemi-J (2012) has been used in the form of bivariate analysis. The results of the symmetric causality test between the variables show that only the existence of a one-way causality relationship is confirmed from the side of crude oil price to the Middle East region's defense expenditures. The results of the asymmetric causality test also confirm the one-way causality relationship from the positive shocks of the global geopolitical risk index and the crude oil price to the positive shocks of Middle East region's defense expenditures. Also, the one-way asymmetric causality is confirmed from the side of negative crude oil price shocks to the negative shocks of Middle East region's defense expenditures and from the side of positive global geopolitical risk index shocks to positive crude oil price shocks. Based on this, it can be said that an increase in the global geopolitical risk leads to an increase in the crude oil price. The increase in the global geopolitical risk and the crude oil price also leads to an increase in defense spending in the Middle East region. Also, it can be expected that with the decrease in the crude oil price, the defense expenditures in the Middle East region will decrease.

Oil revenues, as an important part of the government's revenues in Iran's oil-dependent economy, play an important role in providing public sector expenditures, including the health sector and consequently have an impact on health outputs. On the other hand, the way of using and managing oil revenues is an important factor in the way of this effect. Therefore, the main purpose of this study was to investigate the interactive effect of good governance and oil rent on life expectancy in Iran.

The present descriptive-analytical study investigated the short-term and long-term equilibrium relationship between health output index, per capita income, oil rent, good governance index, and the cross (interactive) effect of good governance and oil rent from 1985 to 2020 using the time series data of Iran. The data used were collected from World Bank global development indicators database and international country risk guide. Also, model estimation was conducted using and autoregressive distributed lag and data analysis was performed using Eviews 10 software.

The results show that in the short and long term, the increase in oil rent improves the health output index in the country. One percent increase in the share of oil rent from gross domestic product (GDP), in the long and short term, increases the life expectancy in the country by about 0.101 and 0.668 percent, respectively. However, the interactive effect of oil rent and good governance index in the short and long term is negative and significant with coefficients of - 0.084 and - 0.515; which shows that oil rent leads to a decrease in life expectancy by weakening good governance indicators.

Based on the findings of this study, it can be said that oil rent is inherently useful in promoting health in the country; but its improper use and management causes the health sector to not benefit from it and even become a loss.

For a long time now, the economic effects of military spending have been one of the most controversial topics in the literature of defense and peace economics. The majority of empirical studies in this field show the negative or insignificant effect of military spending on economic growth in developing countries. But more recent empirical studies show that the existence of external factors such as threats, an abundance of natural resources, and high-quality institutions can indirectly increase economic growth in these countries through military spending and partially compensate for the direct negative effects of military spending on economic growth. In this regard, this article has tried to investigate the role of institutional quality and abundance of natural resources in the relationship between militarization and economic growth in developing countries during the period of 2000-2018 using the dynamic panel data approach. For this purpose, the Global Militarization Index (GMI) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) have been used. The empirical results show that the effect of militarization on economic growth in developing countries is negative and significant. However, the interactive effect of institutional quality and militarization, as well as the interactive effect of abundant natural resources and militarization on economic growth in these countries is positive and significant. This means that militarization in developing countries can increase economic growth in the presence of good institutions and an abundance of natural resources. Also, by separating the studied countries into two categories of countries with relatively better and weaker institutions, it has been shown that militarization from the channel of abundant natural resources increases economic growth in countries with relatively better institutions, while militarization from the channel of abundant natural resources has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in countries with relatively weaker institutions.

Empirical literature on the relationship between military spending and unemployment presents heterogeneous and different findings. A group of studies show that military spending can help reduce unemployment, while another group has concluded that military spending exacerbates unemployment. A group also shows that there is no relationship between military spending and unemployment. According to this, Lee (2021) using a theoretical model including supply-side effect, demand-side effect and security effect caused by military spending in the form of a random endogenous model shows that the relationship between military burden and unemployment (employment) is non-linear and U-shaped (U reverse). In this regard, the main goal of this article is the empirical test of this hypothesis in 171 countries of the world during the years 2001-2020. For this purpose, the effect of military burden on the unemployment rate has been modeled by using the theoretical literature and applying the threshold panel method. The results show that the effect of military burden on unemployment is non-linear and in the form of a U-shaped relationship. The threshold level value of military spending is also estimated at 1.61% of GDP. In other words, before the threshold level, the military burden had a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate; But after crossing this threshold level, the military burden has a positive and significant effect on the unemployment rate, which confirms the hypothesis of Lee (2021).

The civil war will have many negative economic and non-economic consequences. In this regard, the main purpose of the current research is to identify the robust determinants of the civil war risk in 127 countries of the world (including Iran) during the years 2001-2020 and using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. For this purpose, 21 variables have been used in 5 groups: 1. Economic variables, 2. The abundance of natural resources, 3. Demographic variables, 4. Social variables, and 5. Political variables. By estimating 100,000 regressions and Bayesian averaging of coefficients, robust determinants of the civil war risk have been identified. Based on the results, the variables the good govrnance index with a 99% probability and negative effect, religious and racial tensions with a 97% probability and positive effect, and human development index with a 96% probability and negative effect have a definite and robust effect on the civil war risk. The index of economic conditions and the total population with a 91% and 76% probability, respectively, have been the fourth and fifth important variables in explaining the civil war risk with a positive effect. Other variables have a weak or insignificant effect on the risk of civil war. Based on this, it can be said that countries with higher quality institutions, higher human development indicators, less religious and racial tensions, a more favourable economic situation and a smaller population will have a lower probability of civil war.

The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of controlling the vulnerability of the lower classes of society in these periods. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the asymmetric effect of public health expenditures on the health status in Iran during periods of recession and boom.

The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the time series data during the period of 1979-2020, investigated the long-term effects of positive and negative public health expenditures shocks during business cycles, per capita income and physician per capita on the death rate of children under 5 years and life expectancy. Filtering approach and three filters HP, BK and CF have been used to identify business cycles. Also, the models were estimated in the form of a regression model using the Non-linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) method in Eviews 12.0 software.

The results show that the public health expenditure had a pro-cyclical behavior during the period under review. In the long-term, the effect of negative public health expenditure shocks during business cycles on weakening health indicators is greater than the effect of its positive shocks on strengthening health indicators (confirmation of asymmetric effect). Also, the impact of positive and negative shocks on public health expenditures during periods of economic recession is greater than during periods of economic boom. With a 1% decrease in public health expenditures during periods of economic recession, the death rate of children under 5 years increases by 0.17% and the life expectancy decreases by 0.13%.

Based on the results of this research, it is recommended to increase public health expenditures during periods of economic recession in order to reduce the vulnerability of the lower classes of society. But, considering the pro-cyclical behavior of public health expenditures, it is necessary to adopt policies and solutions to reduce the intensity of this behavior.

The significant increase in terrorist incidents since 2004 and the resulting insecurity, and also, the continuation of the militarization process over the past decades under the influence of technological advances, have increased the arms import in the world. Terrorism by creating insecurity in neighboring countries and militarization under geopolitical competition can increase the arms import in neighboring countries and lead to a double growth of global arms imports. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the direct effects of terrorism and militarization on the global arms import and its spillover effects to neighboring countries using statistical data from 67 countries in the period of 2004-2019. For this purpose, an arms import demand model with the presence of indicators of terrorism and global militarization for the countries under study and the spatial econometric method has been used to estimate it. The results of the model estimation show that the occurrence of terrorist incidents and militarization had a positive and significant effect on the arms import. Also, the global arms imports have spatial effects and the arms import is also affected by neighboring countries. The existence of spillover effects of terrorism and militarization on global arms imports is also confirmed. In this sense, the occurrence of terrorist incidents and militarization in a country, in addition to having a positive effect on the arms import of that country, also increases the arms import of the neighboring country.

Based on theoretical foundations, the effect of arms trade on defense spending is ambiguous and influenced by various strategic, security and political factors. One of these factors is democracy. In this regard, this paper investigates the threshold effects of arms trade on defense spending in 30 selected countries for the period of 1995 to 2018, using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model as one of the most prominent regime-switching models. For this purpose, democracy net is used as a transition variable. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two-regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear relationship among variables. The results indicate that threshold value is 4.75 percent and the estimated slope parameter is 0.61. In the first regime, the arms import has a positive and small effect on defense spending; that after crossing the threshold level and entering the second regime, this positive effect has decreased. Also, arms export has a positive effect on defense spending in the first regime; But after crossing the threshold level, in the second regime, this positive influence changes its sign and becomes negative. Based on other results, after crossing the threshold level of democracy and being in the second regime, the positive effect of the variables of GDP, population, income from natural resources and the conflict index, decrease (while maintaining the sign) and the negative effect of the health spending variable increases. These results show that the level of democracy plays an important role in the effect of the arms trade on defense spending and in general the effect of the variables included in the defense spending function.

Based on theoretical foundations and empirical studies in the field of the relationship between natural resources and internal conflict, 4 states can be imagined: a. Positive relationship between natural resources abundance and internal conflict (hypothesis of political resources curse) b. positive relationship between natural resources scarcity and internal conflict (hypothesis of political resources endowment) c. Non-linear relationship between natural resources and internal conflict (combination of state A and B) d. Absence of relationship. Based on this, the main purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between natural resources types and internal conflict risk in the MENAP region countries during the period of 2000-2019 using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM). For this purpose, the index of the percentage share of total natural resource rent from GDP and eight separate indicators including: the percentage share of oil, natural gas, coal, forest and mining rent from GDP, the percentage share of fuel export and the export of ore and metals from the export of goods and the percentage share of arable land in the total area have been used. The results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between the total rent of natural resources and the internal conflict risk; In other words, countries with a shortage of natural resources as well as countries with an abundance of natural resources have a higher internal conflict risk than other countries. This U-shaped relationship is also confirmed for oil rent and fuel export. Also, coal and forest rent have a meaningless effect and arable land has an inverted U effect on the internal conflict risk in the studied countries. The evaluation of the marginal effect of the total rent of natural resources on the internal conflict risk shows that its value varies from -0.08 to 0.1. According to the other results, per capita income and democracy have a negative and significant effect, and population and religious and racial tensions have a positive and significant effect on the internal conflict risk.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil revenues on the military expenditures in nine oil-rich countries of Middle East during the years 1995-2018. For this purpose, a general model of military expenditures designed for these countries and to estimate it the generalized method of moments (GMM) is used in the form of dynamic panel data. The results of the model estimation show that the oil revenues have a positive and significant effect on the military expenditures in the studied countries. So that with an increase of 1 percent in the share of oil revenues to GDP, the ratio of military spending to GDP (military time) increased in this country about 0.16 percent. On this basis, it can be said that the oil plays a significant role in providing military expenditure and security in the oil-rich countries of Middle East

Social capital has an effective role in promoting the mental health of people in the community by providing emotional and psychological support. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of social capital on mental health in provinces of Iran.

This was a descriptive-analytical and applied study. It investigated the long-term relationship between mental health index, social capital, per capita income, unemployment, education and urbanization from 2006 to 2019 using the panel data of Iran's provinces. The data used were collected from Central Bank and Statistics Center of Iran. For this purpose, based on Putnam and Colman's approach to measuring social capital, 3 levels of participation, trust and unity have been considered. In order to combine the indicators used in these levels, factor analysis method has been used. Model estimation was also conducted using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) and data analysis was performed using Eviews 9  and Stata 12 software.

Based on the results obtained from the model estimation, increasing social capital will improve the mental health index in the provinces of the country in the long term. 1 percent increase in social capital in the long run, reduces the suicide rate in the provinces of the country by 0.27 percent. Based on other results, in the long term, per capita income and education have a positive and significant effect and the unemployment rate has a negative and significant effect on mental health in the provinces of the country.

Based on the findings of this study, authors can conclude that the greater amount of social capital in the provinces of the country leads to higher mental health.

An increase in the share of defense expenditures from the total public expenditures may have a negative effect on the share of public health expenditures from the total public expenditures due to the concept of opportunity cost and through the crowding-out effect. The intensity of this effect can change according to the income level. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures in countries with different income groups.

The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the panel data of 90 countries of the world (including Iran) during the period of 2000-2018, to estimate the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures by separating the studied countries into three income groups including low and below average income, above average income countries and high income countries, and also to examine the cross-sectional effect of defense expenditures and per capita income on public health expenditures in all sample countries. The data used were also collected from the World Health Organization database, World Development Indicators belonging to the World Bank and SIPRI. Also, the models were estimated in the form of dynamic panel data using stationery and panel cointegration analyzes and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) in Eviews10.0 software.

The results show that the crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures in terms of elasticity and for countries with low and below average income, countries with above average income and countries with high income are equivalent to -0.654, -0.453 and -0.316 respectively. The cross-sectional effect of defense expenditures and per capita income on public health expenditures of all the studied countries is also positive and equal to 0.112.

The (negative) crowding-out effect of defense expenditures on public health expenditures is confirmed for all countries with different income groups; But with the increase in per capita income, this crowding-out effect decreases exponentially. Based on this, it is necessary to adopt the necessary policies to ensure security without spending high defense expenditures, especially in countries with low per capita income, in order to prevent the reduction of public health expenses.

Today, one of the most important issues that threatens international peace and security is that of terrorism. Since 2004, the number of terrorist incidents in the world has increased dramatically and has remained high ever since. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting terrorism is of particular importance. Some of these factors are of socio-economic (and demographic) type. Accordingly, in this study, using information from 136 countries during the years 2004-2018 and employing the panel data method, socio-economic (and demographic) factors affecting the terrorist incidents in the world are identified and their statistical significance were investigated. The results of this study using the System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) are: (a)- Per capita income has a non-linear and inverted U-shaped effect on terrorism; which shows that the terrorist incidents is higher in middle-income countries than in low- and high-income countries. (b)- Inflation, income inequality and level of education have a positive and significant effect and investment. Furthermore, the degree of trade openness have a significant and negative effect on the terrorist incidents. (c) The population has a positive and significant effect on the terrorism; this means that terrorist incidents are more common in populous countries. Among other socio-economic (and demographic) variables, the dummy variable of Muslim countries has a positive and significant effect, and unemployment and urbanization have an insignificant effect on the terrorist incidents.