اتابک شهباززاده خیاوی

Iran’s share of world exports has not been great in recent years and the development of non-oil exports such as exports of industrial goods in order to reduce the economy''s dependence on oil revenues made necessary. The real exchange rate is one of the most important variables affecting exports. In this context، investigate the effect of the real exchange rate volatility on different variables such as the export is important. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of real exchange rate volatility on exports of Iran Industrial goods over the period of 1968-2010. To that end، The real exchange rate volatility index has been estimated incorporating with EGARCH (0،1) model than we using co-integration of Saikkonen & Lutkepohl and FMOLS to investigate the impact of the real exchange rate volatility index، along with other variables of model exports of industrial goods have been evaluated. The main empirical finding of this paper show that the real exchange rate volatility variables and export prices have negative and significant effects on exports of industrial goods and variables GDP’s world، GDP’s Iran and trade of openness have positive and significant effects on exports of industrial goods. The empirical findings of this paper، The beneficial implications for investors and Policy makers needs to recognize the exact effects of exchange rate volatility on exports of industrial goods are provided.

Considering the major impact which changes in the real exchange rate and crude oil prices have on various sectors of Iran''s economy and the importance of the financial markets role in economic growth and development، this paper aimed to investigate the effects of the changes in real exchange rate and crude oil prices on Tehran stock exchange using the Markov-Switching''s nonlinear models. To this end، daily data which belonged to the following periods were used: 20:03: 2005 - 13:10: 2010 The result of the estimations obtained through the Markov Switching Models indicated that MSIAH model with two regimes out of the various MS model are the most suitable ones. The result of the research showed that the changes in the exogenous variable of real exchange rate and the crude oil price have lagging positive effect on the Stock Exchange Index. Moreover، the effects of these changes with two lagging time intervals are significant and negative. The practical implications of these findings could be beneficial to the investors and policy makers who need to be aware of the exact nature of the effects which changes in the exchange rate and crude oil prices have on the stock exchange index.

A large portion of the world energy consumption is provided by fossil fuels, which cause massive emissions of dangerous pollutants into the environment leading to global warming and climate change. What is certain is the world's energy consumption in order to increase economic growth and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide, the consumption of fossil fuels is a growing trend. Therefore in the present study to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions (as an alternative to the destruction of the environment variable) and variables of FDI, per capita energy consumption and GDP in the form of an environmental Kuznets hypothesis in Iran during 1980-2008. To that end, The Toda-Yamamoto method, has been used to examine the causality relationship. The main finding of this study shows that there exists bidirectional causality between CO2 emissions and energy consumption and unidirectional causality running from GDP to CO2 emissions. Given the existence of causal relationships between variables, the hypothesis of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in state variables that criterion economic growth CO2 emissions and energy consumption is to be confirmed, but in that case the criterion of economic growth, GDP is confirmed is not.