فهرست مطالب اردشیر سنائی

Potential establishment of the Zangezur corridor is among the most radical geopolitical changes in the Caucus region that imposes various effects on the regional countries. Among them, Iran, due to sever international sanctions, enjoys the least opportunity to reap the possible transit benefits of the corridor but finds his security adversely affected. Considering the gap on a comprehensive study in the literature and methodological and epistemic deficiencies of the previous studies, the current research is an attempt to employ regional security complex theory, use a mixed-methods approach in research (exploratory analysis, structural analysis and scenario writing), use expert panel and reliable software (SPSS, MicMac and Scenario wizard) for validating the finding to investigate these consequences. It was revealed that 18 variables with accepted factor loading under four components of Economic, Transit, Hegemonic/Geopolitics and Military affect Iran’s security due to the corridor. Also, structural interpretation showed that these system of effects involve critical, risk, target and output variables that have exclusive nature and behavior. Also, the scenario development revealed that “strengthening convergence with Armenia”, “financing common transit routes with Armenia”, “and preserving status quo in the border” and “removing sanctions and reviving trade competition” are the key critical variables in the most consistent scenario.

The concept of nuclear Iran is repeatedly used by theorists and strategic planners of great powers to contain and limit and control Iran's nuclear capability. The main axis of Iran's action in the nuclear process has been aimed at optimizing strategic and tactical capabilities. Some theorists of international politics point to the fact that in 1991 onwards, Iran has improved its nuclear capabilities endlessly.The model of Iran's strategic action in the field of nuclear capability indicates that power building to deal with threats has been a part of Iran's strategic goals in the regional environment. The actors of international politics always tried to place Iran in a space of geopolitical limitation. The reality of regional Iran is dangerous for many actors of the surrounding environment and great powers, and for this reason, the ground has been created to limit Iran's power in the regional environment.The main question of the article is, "In what sense has nuclear Iran been used by the media, strategic study centers, and diplomats of international politics, and what ideas have been placed on the agenda of great powers and international institutions to confront Iran?" The hypothesis of the article refers to the fact that "the concept of nuclear Iran is considered a part of the strategic literature for limiting the power and technical and tactical capabilities of the Islamic Republic, and this has created the basis for limiting Iran's power." Stephen Walt's threat balance approach is used in the organization of the article.

This article seeks to examine the characteristics of soft power between Iran and the United States in modern Iraq from 2016 to 2020. And the United States is trying to manage and control the developments in Iraq using soft power, and Iran is trying to export the values ​​of the Islamic Revolution to Iraq. This leads to a confrontation between two soft powers, political Islam led by Iran and Western liberal democracy In the new realm of politics, soft power is one of the tools that political units use to achieve their national and strategic goals and interests. A power that, according to its theorists, is more effective than hard power. As Trump's inauguration marks the decline of soft power in the United States and his government with the first American discourse, magnify it again, trying to serve American interests by distancing itself from liberal and democratic values ​​and using neorealist approaches. And Iran, as an independent country in order to achieve its goals in the Middle East, and Iraq is one of the countries that has a very important place in Iran's foreign policy, and has more harmony and ideology with the values ​​of Iraqi society, and It uses its soft power capacities to improve relations with this government. this article, in the framework of Joseph Nye's theory, the two countries of Iran and the United States, and while examining and explaining the components of soft power, will compare these characteristics in the political and cultural dimensions in Iraq.

The aim of this study is to investigate the basis of the claim of violation of women's rights by Iran, using a qualitative method based on collecting information from library sources (documentary) and descriptive analytical method, seeks to answer this question On what basis are the accusations made by Western countries (including the United States and some European countries) that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a "violator" of human rights in the field of women, and what are the criticisms in this regard? The hypothesis of this study is that by referring to legal principles such as non-acceptance and accession to the Women's Convention due to legal conflicts between Iranian law and the provisions of this convention, differences in interpretations and the existence of some legal ambiguities, etc. can be countered with Claims paid And ineffective in treating the Islamic Republic of Iran as a "violator of women's rights" and criticizing such allegations, emphasizing that the allegation of violations of women's rights by Iran did not have a significant legal basis and influence in international forums and courts But in the meantime, what is trying to make this claim more legal is the political principles and factors such as Western influence against Iran, political and selective approach to human rights in Iran, anti-Islamism and the West's hostility towards Iran, etc. It has paved the way for the human rights case of Iran to be placed on the agenda of human rights and international institutions from time to time.

The Syria crisis is a complicated crisis of the 21st century, which due to the presence of the regional and trans-regional players has taken global dimensions, and despite bringing up various peace processes, the crisis is yet to be completely settled. Alongside the Geneva and Vienna Peace Talks, also the Russian government has kicked off the Astana-Sochi Talks with Iran and Turkey since 2017 to find a more pragmatic way to further the Peace process. The paper ahead is focused on the question how Russia has walked towards settling the Syrian crisis using the Astana-Sochi Talks and what are this country’s foreign policy goals for planning these talks? The authors believes that the Russian government has taken the initiative in these talks and by political and military settlement of the crisis, on one side, and prevention of the US and its regional allies from interference, on the  other side, it has resorted to these peace processes. The research examines this using the analytical-descriptive method.

Moving toward space was largely the result of the competition of terrestrial superpowers for planetary hegemony. Moving toward space has created a new criterion for recognizing the promotion of power and allocation of credit in the global community. The exploration and space technologies of the two superpowers, made the competition between them more intense. The launch of Sputnik 1 by the Soviet Union marked the beginning of the space race. Finally, the United States declared itself the winner of the space race by landing on the moon. But then not only did the rivalry between the two countries not end, but it also called on other countries, such as China, India, Japan and some European countries. From the beginning of the space age until now, military activities have been an important part of the goals of the powers. The main question is how space has played a role in intensifying competition between powers. The hypothesis of this article also believes that space has intensified competition between countries, especially space powers, by creating modern weapons and new conditions. From the point of view of neorealism, Space has become a new arena for intensifying competition between countries in the military field and gaining prestige.

The United states of America has been following the supremacy of the liberal order pradigm from the capitalist system over the opposite paradigm since 1945 and this was followed after the cold war more closely, but after the victory of the islamic Revolution, Iran was concidered the hypothetical enemy.United States foreign policy in the international system was merely a reflection of strategies of the ruling political system on this country which is based on a realistic approach which is also based on the school of power politics.The purpose of power utilization is upgrading benefits so that america implements its foreign strategies, basded on concepts such as power and national concepts.United States diplomatic engagement with Iran complemented the strategy of all-out pressure and was in fact part of coercive diplomacy and this policies during the Trump administration were hostile and in various forms with the technological tools of systemic conditions and the use of intelligent power applied against Iran and the scope of sanctions became wider but these policies did not achieve the desired results for the United States and painted an inappropriate image of this country in the eyes of the people of Iran and the world. United States foreign policy was changed from liberal internationalism in Obama era to realism and pragmatism in Trump era.

The continent of Europe was the starting point of two World Wars. But after World War II, the two main former enemies, France and Germany decided to move away from the state of hostility and move toward cooperation. Although joint cooperation in the field of coal and steel began and gradually expanded to other areas, what was important were the areas and elements that encouraged cooperation and convergence and strengthened it over time. Cultural and value commonalities, the cost of war and hostility, the fear of a common threat, Soviet-centered communism, mutual needs for joint cooperation, the importance of the economic component, and etc. were among the factors that encouraged cooperation. The impetus for cooperation and expansion of cooperation and convergence to other Western European countries led to the continuous strengthening of unity and convergence. In fact, the success of cooperation in a sector caused that sector to become a unifying element and strengthen cooperation. Achieving monetary unity and having a single currency was one of those unifying elements. In fact, the economy played an important role in the emerging political community in Europe, and monetary unity was one of the dreams of European politicians before the formation of the European Union, an ideal that was recognized at the beginning of the 21st century in the European Union. The recognition of the euro as a common currency was realized.Achieving a single currency played an important role in strengthening the European Union and the common sense of unity. Although countries such as Britain and Denmark tried from the beginning to avoid accepting the single currency, there was no escaping this fact. With the Brexit, Britain has officially separated from the euro and the common currency. Given the importance of the British economy in Europe on the one hand, and the importance of the Euro alongside the dollar, as one of the most important world currencies on the other hand, it is important to consider how the British withdrawal will affect European monetary unity. Where the future of the Euro will go with the UK withdrawing from the EU monetary union; an important issue that this article seeks to answer. This study, by extracting scenarios from the future of European monetary union, finds it more likely that the British withdrawal will lead to greater cohesion of the European Union and, consequently, to strengthen monetary unity.

The research is qualitative and its approach is descriptive-analytic. Also, due to the nature of this research, the future research method and in particular making scenario is used. By considering independent and dependent variables, related topics are extracted and while coding, we record them in research sheets. In this regard, by referring to written sources and works of recent years, as well as interviews with elites, the method of information analysis is used.

In this section, in the first step, the geopolitical foundations of the European Union are examined. In fact, this section examines the starting point of convergence and the importance of monetary unity. The second step examines the 2008 financial crisis, which sparked pessimism about monetary unity and highlighted the challenges as well as the weaknesses of the union's financial institutions. It also provided space for the formation of opposing currents of convergence. Then, in the third step, the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on monetary unity will be discussed.

The UK's withdrawal from the EU which has always been opposed to monetary union has made it possible for the EU to move towards more cohesion and convergence with the focus on other top economies such as France, Germany and Switzerland. This paper considers this scenario to be the most probable scenario. Britain's special position in the European Union as a non-aligned member has led to more order and cohesion for the EU to leave. This cohesion seems more likely due to Germany's common desire as a European economic power on the one hand and France's desire as a political and military power on the Green Continent on the other hand. According to this scenario, the demographic potential of the euro area, which is 330 million, is itself a factor influencing the convergence and continuity of European monetary unity. Even with The UK's withdrawal from the EU, countries like Germany, Switzerland and France which have strong economies can have better markets in trade.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus became a battleground between regional powers and superpowers due to its rich energy resources, transit geopolitics, proximity to the Caspian Sea, and economic opportunities.  This strategic importance for Iran was greater than the fact that the region affects Iran's regional security and provides many economic opportunities for the country that can help lift economic sanctions. Foreign relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan are more critical between these countries. Research on the relationship between countries suffers from methodological gaps and shortcomings. Thus, this study attempts to cover these weaknesses and develop and validate a model of relationships between the countries.

 To achieve the objectives of the research, the following research questions have been developed: What are the main factors and variables of the structure of foreign relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan? What is the interaction and behavior of these variables in the system of bilateral relations and what is their nature?

According to the research questions and objectives, the following hypotheses are proposed:The developed model of Iran-Azerbaijan relations is a valid model that corresponds to environmental realities.The validated model shows an acceptable fit index in SPSS. The extracted variables can predict the future of foreign relations between the countries.

This study uses a multi-method, multi-step design that combines structural equation modeling (content analysis, exploratory factor analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis) in SPSS and interaction analysis in Mic Mac. In the first phase, a content analysis was carried out in which literature review, documentary research and semi-structured interviews with experts resulted in the extraction of 33 variables. Then confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and based on Eigen Value and Factor loading, 20 variables under five different factors were extracted and confirmed. In the second phase, a crossed impact analysis was done with experts in MicMac software according to which the behavior and nature of variables were identified and reported.    The theoretical framework: The theoretical framework that guided the entire study from data collection to data analysis was the regional integrated security theory proposed and modified by Buzan and Waver (2003) Which is in stark contrast to traditional approaches in security studies and foreign relations because it has shifted attention from the global focus to the regional level. It has four main dimensions and covers the issues of border, polarity, anarchist structure, and social construction.

The data showed that the valid model of foreign relations between countries has five major dimensions that include economy, survival and stability, hegemony, legal and political, and socio-cultural dimensions with twenty different variables at least. Cross-impact analysis where the identified variables are divided into impact variables (critical and environmental variables), two-dimensional variables (risk and target variables), dependent variables, and independent variables (exceptional and secondary-leverage variables).    

It was concluded that structural equation modeling could provide a robust and validated model of foreign relationships between Iran and Azerbaijan and explain these relations' direction and intensity in different dimensions.  It was also concluded that the constructed model shows indicators of a good fit with the geopolitical realities of the South Caucasus. These findings obtained in the interaction analysis can be used as a valid input for scenario development and forecasting of foreign relations between countries.

The present study with the application of qualitative method based on collection of data from library sources (documents)and analytical - descriptive method are about to answer the question of which the accusations made by the west that " violates" the human rights conventions of the Islamic Republic of Iran are based on? The hypothesis of this study is that these accusations are based on dual principles including legal and political principles; The findings of the study, proving the hypothesis, indicate that these allegations are based on legal grounds (Including, non-acceptance and accession to some human rights conventions due to legal conflicts between Iranian law and conventions, differences in interpretations, as well as the existence of some legal ambiguities, etc.) and There are also political bases (including the political and selective approach to human rights in Iran, the security of human rights and international relations, anti-Islamism and the West's stubbornness with Iran). According to the above-mentioned dual principles, accession to the Convention on Human Rights, revision of some amendments to Iran's legal laws, use of the jurisprudence-legal capacities of Islam, as well as the use of the right to bet, appeal to international courts and the realization of the right are among the solutions. Legal and aggressive treatment of allegations, participation in international forums and the issuance of statements, and the increasing supervision of government officials over the functioning of the state body are among the proposed political solutions.

The aim of this study is to investigate the existing conflicts between Islamic human rights and universal human rights in the field of women's rights?

Using a qualitative method based on collecting information from library sources (documentary) and descriptive analytical method, the present article seeks to assess the hypothesis presented in this research.

In areas such as individual rights (right of citizenship, right to residence and housing), family rights (age of marriage, freedom to choose and polygamy, right of guardianship over the spouse, right Divorce and custody of the child), social rights (right to insurance and social security benefits and the right to health services), Women's cultural and spiritual rights (right to literacy based on co-education and restrictions on sending female students abroad), economic rights (right to work in certain occupations and also right to inheritance), political rights (right to be elected to some key positions in the country) Such as leadership and presidency) as well as in the legal and judicial spheres (women's right to legal personality, equality before the law and some women's civil and criminal rights such as blood money and martyrdom) conflicts between Islamic human rights and human rights The world is visible.

In addition to legal conflicts, differences in interpretations and the existence of some legal ambiguities between the two sources of Islamic and international human rights can be seen, which in practice leads to non-acceptance and accession to some human rights conventions in the field of women for Iran.

Civil war in Syria and the interventions of regional and transregional players with their diverse and opposite motivations have led to different implications including the strengthening of Tafkirism and recruitment of extremist forces from different regions including Central Asia. Against this backdrop the authors try to find an answer for the following questions: What are the main reasons for the promoting of Takfirism from Syria Crisis to the Central Asia and how it impacts Russia’s interests in the region.The authors argue that interventions of regional and transregional players including Russia has led to promotion of Takfirism to the Central Asia. The second argumentation of the research is that in its attempt to revive the superpower status, Russia considers Syria as its main battle ground against West. The return of Central Asian extremistsfrom Syria would also lead to security implications for the region.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia first pursued a policy of Atlanticism; However, attention to the near-outside region was put on the agenda due to the ineffectiveness of this policy and with the coming to power of Putin and his allies. Relying on energy resources and forming multilateral alliances and treaties, Moscow embraced the Eurasianist approach with an aggressive face to promote its influence in the region. Meanwhile, the level of use of military methods, especially between 2008 and 2015, increased significantly. Several factors have been influential in this regard. The present article seeks to find out the impact of geopolitical factors and situation on Russia’s militarism in foreign policy towards the near-outside region since 2008 through a realistic approach. In response, it can be said that the near-outside region has recently received serious attention from some political elites. The severity of environmental threats and concerns about geopolitical threats have led to the Russian government’s widespread militarism and aggressive actions against countries in the near-outside region. In this article, the data has been collected using the library method and the research findings have been mainly investigated through a descriptive-analytical method.

One of the priorities of Iran’s foreign policy according to the 20-year vision plan is to achieve regional superiority. In spite of the potentials that have made achieving this goal possible, there are some limitations to obtain it. One of these challenging barriers is the structure of the international system and the regional sub-systems that the Islamic Republic of Iran needs to achieve in order to attain this superior position. The geopolitical genome as a geopolitical map of politics is based on the geography of a country and its ability to influence other countries foreign policy. Geopolitics evaluates the global and regional power base on natural geography, in other words on the geographic plan of interaction and in the policy field. It establishes a relationship between power and goals. The geopolitical genome is a geographic map of the country’s politics that has a significant impact on the behavior of political systems in the international system. Just as humans operate in accordance with their genetic mapping, they also direct genetic codes to other countries. If the geopolitical genome is able to be related to the national interests of a country with the geographical advantages of other countries, it is interdependence. The philosophy of international engagement, development and evolution of global system which allows politicians to take advantage of geographical location of the land, the strategic sensitivities of the sea, land and scarce economic, energy and water resources make regional and global political dominance of power, workable. Iran has a remarkable position with 15 neighboring countries in this geostrategic region. The country is potentially one of the most influential and powerful countries in the world. As foreign policy and government performance are affected by the geopolitical environment and requires the establishment of interaction in a set of spatial and temporal behaviors, the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite having a unique strategic position, lacks a desirable position in international system and is facing increasing external threats. This research aims to study geopolitical factors influencing the change in Iran’s foreign policy from the west to the east with an emphasis on Russia. The author, using a descriptive-analytical method, is trying to answer this question that what geopolitical factors have changed Iran's foreign policy perspectives from the west to the east especially in relation between Iran and Russia during 1991 to 2016? The hypothesis of the research is: the geopolitical factors of Iran, the structure of the international system, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the change of Iran’s position in the region, the discourses of Iran’s foreign policy, the logic of politics and the pressure of Western sanctions in various fields against Iran have changed the attitude of foreign policy discourses of Iran from the west to the east between 1991 and 2016 which resulted in establishment of special ties between Iran and Russia. In spite of some different interests, relations with Russia became one of the most important foreign policy aspects of Iran at three levels: bilateral, regional and international.

By utilizing its different soft powers aspects, the Chinese government is implementing a global progressive strategy, especially on the African continent. The presence of the Chinese on the continent of Africa is very pervasive, which can be attributed to the proper utilization of the negotiations results and the programs approved by the regular China-Africa Summits meetings along with the increasing wave of presence of Chinese governmental media and cultural institutions on this continent. The purpose of this research is to help Iranian decision makers to better understanding of China’s policy makings in Africa and its effects on the political and economic interactions with the continent which many of its capacities have been unknown for different sectors of our country. This paper while using the analytical data, information and documents published, by examining the China›s soft power components in Africa and its effects on the interactions of this country with the continent, tries to answer the following question: What is the soft power performance of China in Africa and what components does it have? The hypothesis used in this connection is that China uses its soft power components on the African continent including culture and educational-cultural exchanges, strengthening diplomatic presence, and the provision of financial and investment assistance in different parts of Africa, has succeeded in attracting positive view of public opinion and the support of African governments to continue cooperation with the country in order to create the proper context for pursuing its political and economic goals on the continent. This research shows that the Iranian officials’ approaches towards Africa and their expectations from this continent will be the basis for defining any mechanism and exploiting of soft power and its tools in line with the expected interests.