فهرست مطالب امیر دودابی نژاد

The development of thermal power plants for the continuous supply of electrical energy requires an average of at least 3 years, hence the necessity to plan for proper infrastructure and requirements. Governments strongly need the participation of the private sector for economic growth and increasing efficiency in the construction of power plants. The present research attempts to plan the development of thermal power plants to maximize the share of the development of private power plants considering the limitation of gas fuel in Iran in the 7th development plan. Therefore, to predict the peak load of the power grid during the study period, two methods of the Arima time series and Narx neural network are used. Also, the effect of two exogenous and emerging variables, including the growth of consumption resulting from the mining of crypto-currencies and the growth of industrial consumption on the peak load rate, is investigated. To achieve higher accuracy, the research method is formulated by combining mathematical modeling and considering general and experimental factors and limitations affecting the problem. Then, the capacity of private power plant development to provide the expected load increase in the study period is determined according to the fuel limit stated in the upstream documents. The results demonstrate that during the years of the 7th plan, due to the maximum fuel limit, it is possible to plan to increase the thermal power capacity by 5157 megawatts.

The Double dividend hypothesis briefly demonstrates that by replacing different kinds of distortionary taxes with environmental ones, not only the lesser pollutants would be emitted (the first merit), but the more productivity and public welfare would be gained (the second one). Given the urgent need of reducing emissions in Iran, levying taxes on carbon, aimed at reducing carbon dioxide by 12 percent, is simulated at present article by a computable general equilibrium model which hypothesized three recycling tax incomes scenarios. In order to calibrate the model, the social accounting matrix of 1390 is used, which comprises of 26 sectors, 36 commodities and two type of households, based on the input-output tables of the Iranian Statistics Center. The results of the present research show that the goal of 12 percent reduction of the emission would be met by 51.3 Rials taxing per each kg carbon dioxide in the scenario of restoring the whole taxes to the households, 73.5 Rials in the scenario of reducing production taxes and finally 58 Rials in the scenario of reducing labor taxes. In all the three scenarios, increase of the real consumption budget of household and the equivalent welfare index is evident. In the first scenario, employment decreases and in the second and third ones, it increases, whereas the real GDP decreases and in the second and third ones, it stands approximately the same. The results of the present research bear out the weak form of the double dividend hypothesis, in the sense that the welfare effects of reducing distortionary taxes are more than those of restoring the whole distortionary ones. The strong form of the hypothesis, however, is not approved in Iranian economy. Moreover, the reduction of labor tax policy, is accompanied by the optimum welfare and viability effects.

Energy Service Contract is an important method for energy saving. While taking some degree of risk, Energy Service Companies implement the energy-saving projects in the form of energy performance contracts for energy consumers (clients). This kind of contracts enjoy some new, subtle and different features. The question is whether this type of contract can be classified as a new contractual form? If not under which type of existing contract forms are they classified? In this paper, the framework of shared savings and guaranteed savings contracts as the main types of energy performance contracts is reviewed. Documents issued by the Ministry of Petroleum are compared to some certain contracts, including sales, promise of reward, hire-purchase and partnership; it is concluded that this specific kind of contract, is not compatible with any of the definite contract types mentioned above. Hence these contracts should be recognized under the principle of sovereignty and freeness of wills, Article 10 of the Civil Code. it is argued that these contracts are not marred by the risk of loss, so they are not defying the specific terms of law. it is argued that the structure of shared saving contracts is the same as of the reward contract under the definite contracts

Almost in the entire history of 20th century, vertically integrated monopolistic companies have controlled the electricity industry. In this traditional method, these firms were the only service provider in their territory; including power generation, transition, distribution and retail. Necessity of economic efficiency deployment, resulted in structural reform in electricity industry that has created variety of subjects such as restructuring, unbundling, deregulation, reregulation and privatization. Electricity industry restructuring means breaking up vertical monopolistic control of governments on industry through unbundling into competitive and uncompetitive sectors. Electricity distribution sector essentially has natural monopoly characteristics therefore is not competitive and should work under regulation. The main objective of this research is to find the most efficient incentive regulation model for electricity distribution sector of Iran by which social welfare function may be maximized. Price and revenue cap models are the most prevalent incentive schemes that have been compared with each other. To design this model, cost function of 38 electricity distribution companies has been estimated and marginal cost of each company has been assumed as the first best price. Efficiency of these companies has been calculated by means of data envelop analysis method. Afterward 2 price regulation schemes has been modeled for years 1388 until 1390. Finally, residential electricity demand function has been estimated by means of autoregressive distributed lags method. Calculation of the difference between total welfare of each model with the first best price; indicates that without considering air pollution externalities, price cap scheme maximizes total welfare. However, considering the externalities, revenue cap model is found to have better effect on total welfare.

The relationship between the productivity and price of energy is an important issue for policy making and energy planning. The main purpose of this paper is to examine and reveal the long run relationship between these two variables in the Iranian economy. The current study results reject a long run relationship between price and energy productivity,based on a standard co-integration test. However, using an asymmetric co-integration (hidden cointegration) approach, we observe a meaningful relationship between price end energy efficiency. This results implies that continuation of the decreasing trend of real energy prices will result in further reductions in energy productivity. It is thus essential that energy prices be adjusted as part of energy conservation policies.