امیرعلی مددی

For the past four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran, due to the intervention of supra-regional and regional powers, as well as historical internal social, economic and political problems, has been involved in issues in the context of historical social trends and challenges arising from the emergence of hegemonic powers. The Western interventionist is understandable. The purpose of this study is to explain and draw different scenarios for the future of social, economic and political trends of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The leading article seeks to answer the question of what future can be drawn for the social, economic and political trends of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the descriptive-analytical method, emphasizing the futures research approach and using data collection and analysis. Thus, after examining social, economic and political issues and trends and using three categories of scenarios (short-term, medium-term and long-term), eleven scenarios were set, each of which points to trends from angles that in the short-term perspective, The scenarios of "continuation of the current stable situation and authority", "struggle of arrogant powers for a global consensus against Iran" are more probable, and in the medium and long term, the failure of the scenarios designed against the Islamic Republic of Iran is explained.

With the rise of the AKP to power in 2002, the country's foreign policy inevitably embarked on a new path based on the two doctrines of "zero tension with neighbors" and "strategic depth." But since 2012, in line with popular uprisings in the region and the Muslim world, Turkey has gradually shifted away from its former foreign policy in the Middle East, increasing its understanding of threats, competing with other regional powers, increasing its use of force, risky behavior, and Prioritizing the policy of unilateralism has been accompanied. This new approach has led to a strong focus on national security, efforts for greater strategic independence, and the militarization of foreign policy. Regarding this development, some researches have emphasized the expansionist approach of neo-Ottomanism, while others consider the Islamic Awakening and the subsequent developments as the cause of the turn of Turkey's foreign policy. Other research looks at the 2016 coup and the rivalry of political elites as the root of this change. The tense environment of society considers the redefinition of Turkey's role in the region and the transformation of power in the international system as the five main and influential components in changing the foreign policy of this country towards the Middle East region. Among the above components, the change in the balance of power at the international and regional levels and the increasing position of Erdoğan himself in the power structure have had the greatest impact on Turkey's Middle East policy.

The aim of this study was to investigate the nature of new social movements in the political and social challenges of poverty and inequality in the Islamic Republic of Iran after the riots of January 2017. The research question is: What is the nature and context of the political and social challenges of poverty and inequality in the Islamic Republic of Iran after the riots of January 2017? The research hypothesis states that the political and social challenges of poverty and inequality in the Islamic Republic of Iran after the riots of January 2017 have been in the form of social movements with a just nature in the context of cyberspace. The research methodology is descriptive- analytical one which utilizes desk research, fuzzy Delphi method and a questionnaire. The results indicated that, with respect to the economic, earning problems including expensiveness, inflation, financial corruption, inefficacy of economic management, unemployment, poverty, social inequality, disregarding dignity,……, many new social movements have been developed in seeking justice which promoted through the social networks and political awareness of the poor classes together with public awareness and closeness of the medium and poor classes which seem to make a coalition for upcoming political and security crises. Clearly, most of the participants these riots were poor individuals, outskirts and medium class people. Finally, the key factors which lead to these political and security crises will be identified using fuzzy Delphi: the economic problems account for almost 56.25 % of these key factors.