فهرست مطالب ایرج ویس کرمی

This research examines how effective water resources management impacts sustainable rural livelihoods in Poldakhtar city. It addresses the key issue of rural migration driven by decreased water resources and inadequate management, particularly affecting agriculture. The study, applied and descriptive-analytical in nature, focused on 7358 households in Poldakhtar's villages, selecting 365 households as samples using Cochran's formula. Data analysis was performed using sample t-tests and multivariate regression analysis. Results from the sample t-test revealed that the most favorable aspect of water resources management was the use of suitable cultivation patterns, which had the highest average score of 3.376. Conversely, the lowest score of 2.706 was for the Agricultural Bank’s role in providing loans for water needs. Overall, water resources management in Poldakhtar was rated positively, with an average score of 3.118. Multivariate regression analysis assessed the effects of water resources management on various dimensions of sustainable rural livelihoods. The analysis showed that water management significantly influenced social livelihood (beta coefficient of 0.325), economic livelihood (0.276), human livelihood (0.213), and physical livelihood (0.178). These findings underscore the importance of effective water management in enhancing various aspects of rural life and its potential to mitigate migration challenges by improving living conditions.

Numerous forms of natural dangers and related tragedies containing earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, cloud burst, floods, soil erosion etc. happening the world and amongst such troubling natural hazards landslides are the awful types of greatest recurrent occurrences all everywhere the world. Every year, landslides have affected huge damages of life and stuff, concluded the damages of forests, fruitful cultivated land, habitation area, and network communication in addition to tourist adverts. Additionally, alteration of the earth surface is also responsible for devastating landslides. Iran has confronted numerous categories of natural threats and disasters, for example severe soil erosion concluded gully expansion, vulgar floods, and disturbing landslides. So, because of the numerous occurrences of landslides and huge financial damages have develop national disasters of Iran. The landslide event in Iran has caused about 500 billion financial damages. Landslide susceptibility assessment be able to assistance the planners for final management of environmental squalor and natural resources from delicate damages and eventually development of economic action of this watershed area. The planned methods use both the capability thoughts and ground fact at the like time. This could be taken as a brand-new methodology toward landslide zoning difficulties. The goal of the study is to zonate the hazard of landslide occurrence using maximum entropy (ME) algorithm and compare the effectiveness of this method in locating the sensitivity of landslide occurrence in Karganeh Watershed, Lorestan Province.

Karganeh Watershed is located between 33° 25′ 12″ to 33° 37′ 12″ latitude and 48° 23′ 59″ to 48° 44′ 24″ longitude, occupying about 294.2 sq km in the Lorestan Province, west of Iran. This watershed is one of the main sub basins of Karkheh River. One of the most important phases of landslide susceptibility assessment is to identify and prepare a distribution map of current landslides in the watershed. This map was prepared via assembly the information associated with landslides or via analyzing the data from remote sensing and GIS techniques. On behalf of this goal, the distribution map layer of landslides in the watershed was prepared and separated into two sets for model training (70%) and model validation (30%) randomly. Also, 16 causes disturbing the happening of landslides in this watershed were selected permitting to the review of sources and the usage of principal component analysis (PCA), Tolerance and VIF tests. Digital layers of effective factors in geographic information system were equipped. In the next step, the landslide risk map was equipped based on the maximum entropy machine (ME) method. So that evaluate the accurateness of the modeling and compare the efficiency of the method, the index of the area under the virtual performance recognition curve (ROC) was used. Established on the fallouts of the maximum likelihood diagram, geological, land use and slope are the best significant factors inducing the event of landslides in Karganeh Watershed.

Landslide inventory map indicated that there are 95 scattered landslides in the Karganeh Watershed. Exaggerated total area through landslide is 635 ha (2.23% of the watershed area). Based on the results of the PCA index, the KMO coefficient was calculated as 0.61, which confirms the necessary correlation between the input variables to perform principal component analysis. Among the 19 components as the number of variables investigated in landslide risk assessment, considering the eigenvalue higher than one, the number of the first two main components was investigated. The results showed that these two main components express nearly 67% of the changes. After investigation, slope, slope direction, elevation classes, geology, distance from the river, distance from the road, distance from the fault, river power index (SPI), topographic moisture index (TWI) and slope length index (LS), topographic position index (TPI), topographic roughness index (TRI) and vector roughness measurement index (VRM), land use, distance from the village, and rainfall were selected as the most effective factors of landslide occurrence in the Karganeh Watershed. According to the Kappa index diagram, geological indicators, land use, slope, topographic roughness index (TRI), slope length and slope direction are the most important influencing parameters. The area under the curve (AUC) based on the relative performance detection curve indicates good accuracy (AUC=0.787) in the validation stage. Permitting to the results of the maximum entropy method, about 28% of the Karganeh Watershed is in the high and very high hazard class of landslide happening.

In this study, it was tried to use all effective factors in order to evaluate landslide susceptibility in Karganeh Watershed. Principal component analysis (PCA), tolerance and VIF were used to determine the relationship between the factors influencing the occurrence of landslides and to determine the most effective factors. It is the carrying capacity of the waterway. It actually determines the effect of topography on erosion. The longer the slope is, the higher the sediment carrying capacity is, and the condition of landslides on the side of the waterway increases. An increase in the topographic roughness index (TRI) indicates uplift and nontectonic activity. Changing the rangeland to rain fed farming and road construction is completed severely in Karganeh Watershed throughout recent years and led to awarding great role of human factors on landslide in comparing other factors. Based on the results obtained from this model, 50.4% of the area of the basin is in the very low and low sensitivity class, 21.6% is in the medium sensitivity class, and 28% is in the high and very high sensitivity regional level. An increase in this index leads to more surface roughness and an increase in slope, which makes landslides more prone to occur.The implementation of landslide management programs based on the results of this research on the Karganeh Watershed can explain the difficulties of domain instability.

Drought can have serious negative effects on the quality of water needed for irrigated agriculture. The geological formations of the region increase the concentration of minor and rare toxic elements in the waters, and on the other hand, human activities lead to water pollution in the nearby areas. In this research, the effect of drought on the quality of surface water, the effect of various factors such as geological formations and the decrease or increase of rainfall and air temperature on the quality of water resources, how the quality of water changes, determining the limits of water consumption in the drinking sector and agriculture should be paid.

The Tirah River Basin with an area of 3243.6 square kilometers is considered as one of the sub-basins of the Dez River and a subset of the Karun Basin. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard StreamFlow Index (SSI) and Decimal Index (DI) were used to calculate standard drought indices. Elements and compounds of electrical conductivity (Ec), Total dissolved solids (TDS), pH and Anions of chlorine (Cl-), Sulfate (SO42-), Bicarbonate (HCO3-), Sodium (Na), Calcium (Ca) and Magnesium cations (Mg) were investigated. To draw the pattern of droughts, 3 hydrometric stations of Teng Mohammad Haji (upstream), Rahimabad Silakhor (middle) and Tir-Droud (outlet) stations were tested.

The most severe hydrological droughts with a duration of 2 years and a minimum SSI value of -1.23 in the Teng Mohammad Haji Station in the water years of 2009 and 2010 and the Tir-Droud Station with a duration of 4 years (-1.19) and the Rahimabad Silakhor Station with a duration of 3 years (-1.16) occurred for the water years 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The analysis of discharge and precipitation data of Teir sub-basins showed that between the discharge and precipitation (SPI and SSI) of Tang Mohammadhaji and Rahimabad Stations, there was an average positive correlation at a significant level of 0.05 (R2=0.526). Examining the relationship between annual discharge and water quality parameters showed that there was a negative correlation for most parameters such as TDS, EC, chlorine, the total of anions and cations, so that the maximum concentration of quality parameters occurred in droughts. In Tang Mohammadhaji Station, the highest percentage of changes was related to sodium and chlorine, respectively, with 62.55 and 39.70% in dry years compared to the long-term average. The results of this research showed that the percentage of changes in calcium, magnesium, sodium, carbonate and chloride
 increased in dry years compared to the long-term average in the studied stations in the Tirah River Basin. All the stations in the Tirah Basin have passed the period of relatively dry hydrological drought (-0.84 to -1.28) and none of them have suffered severe hydrological drought.

The analysis of discharge and precipitation data of dark sub-basins shows that between discharge and precipitation (SPI and SSI) of Tang Mohammad Haji Station, which is an upstream sub-basin of dark, there is an average positive correlation at a significant level of 0.05 and in Rahim Abad Station, which is in the middle of the basin It is located in Tire, and according to Pearson, it has a correlation at a significant level of 0.05 at the exit station of Tire basin, no significant correlation is observed between discharge and precipitation variables, which can be caused by snowfall and the persistence of snow in the heights from the previous water year, the construction of Meruk Dam. In the upper part of the basin, as well as the water intake of Bishehdalan Silakhor Wetland in droughts and abundant water harvesting from the Tirah River for agriculture. The upstream basin of Tang Mohammadhaji Station is completely calcareous, which has caused changes in parameters of calcium, TDS, EC, etc. In Rahimabad Silakhor Station and Tire outlet, half of the area of the basin is dedicated to intrusive rocks such as granite and granodiorite, which increases potassium and calcium. In the studied stations in Tirah River Basin, the percentage of changes related to calcium, magnesium and sodium, and carbonate and chlorine anions have increased in dry years compared to the long-term average. In general, it can be concluded that drought can have negative effects on water quality parameters in Tirah River Basin.

Managing a pervasive and effective phenomenon such as drought in different sectors of the economy requires close cooperation and careful planning. Lack of strategic drought planning and delays in decision-making have increased costs to reduce drought damage. The aim of this study was to develop strategic for drought adaptation using the SWOT model in Lorestan Province.

In this research, the methods of reviewing sources and interviewing with a questionnaire were used in order to provide macro strategies to adapt to drought. For this purpose, the current status of ecological resources, environmental changes, economic sectors and their dependence on water resources, population and employment, management of ecological resources, organizations and institutions were analyzed, then by reviewing the upstream laws and documents, interview with resource managers, local and national decision makers, experts, published background and other available information identified the causes of problems and obstacles to drought management in the province. The statistical sample consisted of 27 experts and scientific and executive experts were selected. Scoring was done on two occasions by experts, and finally, by averaging the opinions of experts and scientific and executive experts, the weight of internal and external factors was determined. In the final stage, in addition to identifying important factors in each of the criteria of strength, weakness, opportunity and threat, necessary management strategies were determined based on the conditions of Lorestan Province through SWOT analysis. These issues were categorized in the form of environmental opportunities and threats and internal strengths and weaknesses, then analyzed by SOWT analysis approach and Delphi method.

The study of strength factors shows that the existence of companies and organizations with resource monitoring units in the province with a weight of 0.25 has a higher effectiveness and degree of importance among other factors. Lack of proper planning and organization for monitoring and evaluation of drought weighing 0.33 has a very high effectiveness among the factors of poor adaptation to drought in the province. Among the opportunities, the factor of technological advances in the field of precision agriculture with a weight of 0.1 have a very high effectiveness. The factor of endangering the livelihood of farmers in case of drought is the most effective among the studied factors of threats with a weight of 0.22. Factors of irrigation of lands in some areas with polluted water and gradual destruction of agricultural soil and population increase and as a result increase in demand for water with a weight of 0.02 were recognized as having the least effectiveness among the threats of drought adaptation in Lorestan Province.

After scoring using the Delphi method, it was found that the presence of faculties and centers of agricultural education and natural resources in Lorestan Province was recognized as the most important strength. But despite this strong point in the province, unfortunately, the lack or inappropriateness of available data and information for the purpose of monitoring and evaluating the effects of drought is known as the main weakness. According to these results, in the direction of the conservative strategy, the strategy of balancing aquifers with the priority of aquifers with a negative water balance was suggested. The government's support for water harvesting projects at the level of cities and villages and the monitoring of better water management in cities provide suitable opportunities to improve the ability of farmers to deal with the negative effects of drought. The final result has been the presentation of drought coping strategies for different regions of the province in the areas of surface and groundwater supply, irrigated and rainfed agriculture, urban and rural drinking water and river water environment.

Agriculture is not only the largest user of groundwater resources throughout the world but also its economy is highly dependent on these sources. Thanks to having more effective parameters and subsequently more accurate results, the classification methods in many fields, such as sustainable agriculture has been taken into consideration. Discriminant analysis models are more complex, more accurate and more efficient in comparison to modern methods. In current study, the areas with infiltration potential located in some parts of Khomein, Shazand, Azna, Aligudarz and Durood areas (Marboreh watershed) were went under investigation using the mixture discriminant analysis (MDA) model. For this purpose, the infiltration samples gathered by double ring test, with the environment-effecting layers on infiltration, were prepared and then introduced to R_studio, employed to run MDA. In order to assess the results, validation indices (ROC curve, CCI, TSS, Recall and Precision indices) were used. According to the results, 6.2, 6.1, 12.7, 13.3 and 15.9% of areas of Shazand, Khomein, Durood, Azna and Aligodarz respectively lie in highly potential infiltration, whereas 1.1 16.5, 14.3, 19.6 and 10.8% of those areas were found to have extremely potential infiltration. Most of these areas have sandy soil texture and Quaternary formations with agricultural and range land uses. The accuracy indices that obtained as 0.89%, 76.66, 0.53, 0.91% and 0.73%, witnessing the acceptance and excellence of model performance. The results of this study can be useful in the decision-making for managers and planners regarding to the groundwater recharge in accordance with urban and agricultural needs, because groundwater resources and ensuring their stability are the main factors for sustainable agriculture.

One of the main goals of spatial analysis of precipitation at area is to reach the standard project storm (SPS) for that area, through which can be reached the standard project flood (SPF). This analysis includes the characteristics of rainfall depth at a certain area and for a specific duration. Relation between depth and rainfall area which called depth-area-duration (DAD), is shown usually by set of curves that each shows different duration of rainfall. Using these curves, a reduction factor is determined for specific area and is applied to adjust the average point rainfall related to frequency of this project. The present study carried out under topic of investigation and map of depth- area- duration in Lorestan, in an area over 28559/5 Km2 in west part of country.

Weak coefficient of correlation is shown meaningfulness of the relation between rainfall and altitude in different time base. this is resulted from different reasons such as extension of area, lack of transmittal and number of suitable weather stations and different extension and tension of mountain than rain flaw. Considering above points cause those other methods of drawing precipitation maps include interpolation or geostatistical methods including, spline, IDW, kriging and Co-kriging were used.

Weak coefficient of correlation is shown meaningfulness of the relation between rainfall and altitude in different time base. this is resulted from different reasons such as extension of area, lack of transmittal and number of suitable weather stations and different extension and tension of mountain than rain flaw. Considering above points cause those other methods of drawing precipitation maps include interpolation or geostatistical methods including, spline, IDW, kriging and Co-kriging were used.

The results show that to preparing precipitation maps of selecting storms, simple co- kriging (SCK) is a suitable method to calculate the amount of rainfall of selecting storms in lorestan province. So the above way is used for preparing precipitation maps. Resulted from investigation of surface reduction factor of rain fall shows that in time duration 12 and 48 hrs with the increase of each 5000 surface reduction factor reduces for 0.1 in 24 hrs duration within 18000 Km2. This coefficient has a slow decreasing trend and then that is similar to 12 and 48 hrs rainfalls. Assessing the daily rainfall statistics of some of rain gauge stations in somewhere of the province by the Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Energy, shows that sometimes there is a significant difference between the perception rates recorded by these organizations. Therefore, in order to eliminate the existing defects, it is suggested that the stations occupied by these organizations and their monitoring status be periodically evaluated by the experts of the relevant organizations and possible defects be prevented.

Estimating groundwater recharge using other affecting factors such as hydro-meteorological, and physical factors, is the main way to understanding, predicting the sustainability and availability potential of aquifers. The objective of this research was investigating the efficiency of some individual and ensembled models and the effect of the ensembling on promoting the efficiency of Bayesian and Random forest models.

The required environmental layers (DEM, aspect, slope, curvatures (profile and plan curvature), lithology, landuse, soil texture, NDVI, fault distance, river distance, SPI, drainage density, TWI), were prepared by ArcGIS 10.6 software for the study area. the Bayesian theory and Random Forest models and ensembling of these models were avaluated. To consider the ensemble effect of these models, input layers were used in two models and then the models were ensembled by several scenarios, which were based on the principles of basic mathematics. The double-ring infiltrometer method were used for understanding the spatial variability of groundwater recharge potential (GWRP). The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical measures. ROC, CCI, and TSS indices were used for evaluating the results of implemented models. Finally, GWRP mapping prepared and the percolation of the study area was classified into five classes: very high infiltration, high infiltration, medium infiltration, low infiltration and very low infiltration.

The sandy-clay-loom soil texture and the Quaternary sediments (Qft2), rangeland and agriculture areas (in landuse layer), showed maximum percolation. The results indicated that the random forest (RF) model was identified as the superior model compared to Bayesian and ensembled models, by ROC, TSS and CCI indices (ROC= 0.983, TSS= 0.86, and CCI= 93.9, respectively). Also, among the ensembled models, the RFBa5 model (based on the fifth scenario) was evaluated as the most efficient model through ROC, TSS, and CCI indices (ROC= 0.984, TSS= 0.76, and CCI= 87.94, respectively). Based on the first individual model (RF), 11% of the study area had moderate to very high infiltration potential. This despite the fact that the 89% of the study watershed was found with low and very low potential. While according to RFBa5, 30% of the study area were estimated with moderate to very high potential and 70% with low and very low potential. The Bayesian model was observed as the weakest model. But based on the ensemble of this model with the random forest model, under different scenarios, the strengthening of this model was observed. These results show the positive effect of ensembling the models.

The GWR potential maps are useful in planning with more accuracy for implementation of artificial GWR, soil protection, aquifers and watershed management projects in order to protect water and soil resources by directing runoffs to preventing the soil erosion and aquifers recharge. It is recommended to study different suitable models and their ensembling in this field or other watersheds and select the best model to get the best performance and obtain an accurate map.

In this research, System Dynamics (SD) modeling was developed for facilitates the integrated and sustainable management of water and soil resources and improving the understanding of watershed systems in the Hableh-Rud River Basin. Reference diagrams were created to represent causal relationships and feedbacks. The conceptual model, included physical, economic, and social sub-systems, was created based by causal relationships and feedbacks. The model of stocks and flows run in the Vensim software environment. The model is comprised of Model verification was carried out through extreme condition tests and behavior reproduction test. Having the Nash-Sutcliff and R2 coefficients with greater values than 0.62 and 0.63, respectively, the SD model satisfactorily simulates all variables. Different scenarios of vegetation management, climate, water resources management, and cropping patterns were compared to the outputs of the existing condition. The results of scenario analyses for a 30-year period show that the agricultural water use efficiency scenario, as the best scenario, increases groundwater and water infiltration volume by 14.3 and 11.1 percent, respectively. With regard to the erosion and sedimentation variables, rangeland restoration activities were chosen as the best scenario, with 7.12 and 5.24 percent reduction. The greatest reduction in nitrogen and phosphorous loss, 8% and 6.4% reduction could be achieved by implementing the rangeland restoration scenario. From an economic perspective, payment for 50% of the ecosystem services, with about 46 percent improvement compared to the current condition, was determined as the best scenario. Stakeholders expressed their highest willingness to participate in the farm management activities with the accumulated score of 85.6 for public acceptance index. The SD model is a beneficial approach for stakeholders understanding of the causal relationships and feedbacks in the system.

Flood spreading in mountainous regions is very different as compared with plains. Flood spreading in Koohdasht, Roomeshkan and keshmahour plains includs gabion structures, stilling basins, diversion dikes, banquets, and channels. An average of 25 million cubic meters per year infiltrate into the plain. Planting 170000 tree species results in an increase in forage production and a reduction in flood damage. Statistics indicate that the plain Roomeshkan has not been faced with reduced groundwater levels and discharge rates of the wells are normal.

Water shortage is one of the major problems in most countries, especially countries with a growing population and Iran is one of these countries. Iran is located in a hot and dry weather and its annual rainfall is one-third of the world. Water shortage and recent droughts have reduced available water resources. Therefore, managing agricultural water consumption should be considered as one of the most important headlines of water resources management. In this study, irrigation efficiency was computed after measuring water consumption of three agricultural products of wheat, clever and alfalfa.. Results showed that the highest and the lowest of efficiency index of 1.85 and 1.43 belong to alfalfa and clever respectively andirrigation water consuming efficiency were 61.9, 76.01 and 150.1 for wheat, alfalfa and clever, respectively. Also, results demonstrated that efficiency-added product index for all three products of wheat, alfalfa and clever were 6112.7, 6505.2 and 4870.3 Rial/m3, respectively. Finally, according to the result, alfalfa has the highest productivity compared to other products.

There is a very close relationship between two distributions of climate and vegetation maps. But, the relation between climate and vegetation is not clear. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to determine the effect of main climatic factors on distribution of main vegetal species and its zonation in Iran. For this purpose, 51 synoptic stations with 30-year data (1976-2005) or more were selected and their meteorological data were extracted. Using principal components techniques, 269 ​​climatic variables were considered and the numbers of variables reduced to 14 factors with eigenvalues ​​more than one that represent 96.4% of the total variance. The first three factors (the thermal component, moisture and precipitation, respectively) had the most influence on the climate, so, they were considered for climate zonation criteria. These three components were rasterized within ArcGIS using Kriging interpolation method. Resulted raster map was used to create the climatic zonation map by unsupervised clustering technique. Finally, ecological climate zonationmap was derived using two climate parameters (temperature and humidity) and elevation map of country and by using unsupervised clustering technique. This map shows that the boundaries of ecological climate regions are mainly based on climatic (temperature and humidity) and landform factors (elevation). Another result of the research was that most ecological climatic zones were related to the low elevation areas of the country (below 1200 m) and the rate of high ecological climatic areas (above 2400 m) were very low.

The main aim of flood water spreading in Iran is to recharge groundwater. Understanding the effect and efficiency of such projects is one of the most important activities in managing and implementing water spreading. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of water spreading on groundwater resources in Kohdasht plain. Data and information required including precipitation rate, groundwater level and groundwater exploitation were collected and analyzed for a ten year period. First of all, in order to assess the three variables test of normality was performed and then all the data was normalized. The results showed that before implementing the water spreading project, fluctuations of groundwater were proportional to utilization of groundwater resources, showing a declining rate. After implementing the project, a turning point on groundwater level was observed. Also, another turning point was recognizable in hydrological year 1377-1378. In addition to overexploitation, drought affected the aquifer so dramatically that standard index in hydrological year 1371-1372 decreased from 0.3 to -1.5 in hydrological year 1377-1378.

The Sorkhab sub basin on Dez dam watershed is prone to landslide because of geological formation, topography and slope and accelerated erosion .Hazard assessment is necessary to mitigation of disasters and landslides vulnerability. For this purpose, were assessing several methods including modified Mora & Varson , modified Nilsun, Cupta-Joshi, two variate statistical method and information value and area density method.
The survays show litology, slope, distance to faults, and landuse are main factors in occurrence of landslide in area. As such more of 41 percent of areas fall into the high susceptibility zones. statistical methods for information value is more disirable Hazard zonation method for This basin.