فهرست مطالب حمزه احمدی

Determining the distribution status of species and habitats under their occupation is very important in species conservation and management programs, but the available time and budget make large-scale species studies difficult and in many cases impossible. Therefore, in this field, species distribution modeling methods are used. Modeling the distribution of plant species with the aim of identifying areas prone to conservation conservation and afforestation is important. The aim of this study was to model the distribution of pistachio species using methods and feasibility study of the development of this species in Ilam province.

For this purpose, the presence points of the species throughout the province were collected using stratified random sampling method and their geographical coordinates were entered into the software MaxEnt. Map of environmental factors including 19 climatic variables, 3 topographic variables and snow cover variables were prepared. These variables were used as model input and the relationship between attendance data and environmental variable maps was defined mathematically using software. Then species distribution prediction maps were prepared using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling method.

The results of model evaluation showed that the model with the area under the plot curve AUC: 0.947 has an excellent prediction versus 0.5 which means that the prediction is random. Jack Knife test also showed that the model was successful in predicting the distribution of pistachio species and the factors of annual temperature range, mean temperature ‌, isotherm index, annual precipitation and altitude, respectively, had the greatest impact on the presence of this species in Ilam province.

The results of this study have provided key and important information about the tolerance range of Pistica species to environmental variables. This information is effective in making management decisions to prioritize conservation areas and to take remedial and conservation measures, especially in areas where vegetation is being degraded, and increases the chances of success in planting and rehabilitation projects.

Type 2 diabetes is one of the most prevalent chronic diseases in the world, and its proper control is necessary to prevent complications. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of uncontrolled diabetes, and its predictors in diabetic patients admitted to comprehensive health care centers in Isfahan.

A total of 265 patients with type 2 diabetes covered by comprehensive health care centers in Isfahan were included in this cross-sectional study using random sampling. Demographic data, lifestyle, self–care, and quality of care were collected. Glycated Hemoglobin A levels were also measured, and levels above 7% were considered uncontrolled diabetes. The logistic regression test was used to determine the contribution of different factors in diabetes control.

The prevalence of uncontrolled diabetes in the studied patients was 45.3%. The adjusted odds ratio of uncontrolled diabetes in those taking insulin was 3.46 compared with patients receiving only oral medication (p=0.002). Also, the adjusted odds ratio of uncontrolled diabetes was more than five years in those whose duration of diabetes was 3.27 compared to others (p <0.001).

Considering the high prevalence of poor glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes, the doctors of comprehensive health care centers must pay special attention to patients diagnosed for about five years and people who use insulin. Reconsidering the type and dose of the medicine for these patients may be helpful.

The evapotranspiration, as one of the important meteorological variables and the relation between the land surface and the atmosphere, is important to the study of drought and the allocation of water resources. The relationship of this climatic variable with land indices as well as water supply planning reveals its importance. Due to the high relationship between this variable and air temperature, changes in air temperature patterns in global warming and climate change will have a high impact on its behavior and distribution. The relationship and entanglement of this hydro-climatic variable with climate change, especially temperature, has caused that with any fluctuation and change in the behavior of temperature patterns, its value and distribution will also change. Iran as a country located in the arid areas of the planet earth; is currently heavily involved in water stress. This water stress will be exacerbated by climate change, rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration. Examining the impacts of climate change can be a roadmap for environmental management in this area. The aim of the present study is to reveal the behavior of this climatic parameter in the future period compared to the historical period and its spatial distribution based on the data network.

In the present study, using the output of downscaled dynamic models of the CORDEX-MNA project for North Africa and the Middle -East under (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) scenarios. For the historical period (1980 – 2005), reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Penman- Monteith, FAO method. The NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M regional climate models (RCMs) as the dynamic model output projection was used for the future to mid century (2025-2050).In this study, RCP4.5 & RCP8.5 representative concentration pathway scenarios were selected, as these two scenarios are used to further investigate climate change vulnerabilities and subsequent climate change responses. The CORDEX-MNA data with 0.22 spatial resolution, RCA4 model for RCM, were used. For the future period, the ETo value is obtained directly from the output of the CORDEX-MNA coordinated project models. In fact, the reference evapotranspiration value is part of the simulation of these models. Statistical criteria are used for the correction of the models to show the similarity between the observed and modeled data in the form of statistical values.

The results showed that in the future period, based on CORDEX-MNA coordinated project simulations for North Africa and the Middle-East, downscaled dynamics models; the amount of reference evapotranspiration as one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle will increase compared to the historical period (1980-2005). In terms of temporal variation, the highest changes will occur in mid-winter to early autumn. Under the RCP scenario, the ETo will increase to 34 mm in the hot months such as August. Under the mid-term scenario, the ETo value will increase compared to the historical period, but this increasing will be less than the upper limit scenario. Spatially, the main foci of high reference evapotranspiration are located in the central areas around Kavir and Lut plains, Jazmourian areas and the southern half of the Iran. The results showed that in the context of climate change and based on the downscaled data of the CORDEX -MNA project; the range of high potential evapotranspiration in the Iran will increase. In fact, high latitudes will experience an increase in the amount of ETo due to changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns and increasing air temperature trends. These conditions will be an alarm for Iran with arid and semi-arid conditions. Any change in the amount of evapotranspiration causes drought in the environment, followed by water needs and irrigation frequency for the agricultural sector as the most important water consuming sector in Iran. Therefore, it is important to pay serious attention to water resources management programs.

 Among the models used, the output of the regional model; NOAA-GFDL-GFDL-ESM2M has more optimal conditions in simulating the effects of climate change in Iran. The ETo spatial pattern is a function of location components throughout the year. These conditions are well evident in the distribution of potential evapotranspiration. The amount of ETo will increase from west to east and from north to south of the country based on the spatial pattern obtained in the historical (1980-2005) and the future period from 2025 until 2050. The southern and central regions of the Iran are the focus of areas with high ETo. The role of altitude and latitude factor in determining this spatial pattern is obvious. Comparison of ETo historical-observational period with the future decads to 2050, shows a significant increasing in the amount of potential evapotranspiration in Iran. Under RCP8.5 from March - September ETo will reach the highest level. In areas with high ETo in Iran, the average amount of ETo will increase by an average of 11 mm from April to June and in the warm months by an average of 17 mm. Under RCP4.5 scenario, these conditions are also observed to be incremental with a lower value. In the cool and cold months, in the high regions, the amount of minor and small changes and in some areas without change is observed. Significant increasing in reference evapotranspiration in August as one of the hottest months of the year in Iran is significant; because at this time of year, the demand for water consumption in all sectors; in particular, the agricultural sector is reaching its highest level, which necessitates attention to water resources management. In general, reference evapotranspiration as one of the hydro-climatic components, with any change in air temperature, will face increasing conditions that result in this increase, imposing more drought on the environment and thus increasing the water demand. Especially in the agricultural sector. These conditions are important for the geography of Iran with its fragile climate. Therefore, the land of Iran is currently facing tensions and instability in the situation of water resources, these conditions will intensify in the coming decades under the conditions of climate change. The need to pay attention to risk management and increase resilience in the face of climate change due to global warming can be considered a roadmap in this area.

Floods are among inevitable hazards but its frequencies and volumes can be varied due to climate change. A comprehensive analysis of synoptic status can be useful for predicting similar events in the future. It is therefore very important for a good environmental management. Flash flood of July 2015 in Saghez was a catastrophe and did severe damage. In order to analyze the catastrophic precipitation, sea level pressure, 300 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa maps along with Omega, perceptible water map and humidity maps were investigated and analyzed, starting two days before the rainfall until the end of rainfall and even a day after. Results show that immigrant European high-pressure system along with Arabian low-pressure tongue have caused intense rainfall during the day. Mediterranean Sea, black sea and red sea have been effective in enhancing the system too. A day before the rainfall, at surface level, a high-pressure European system from the North West and the low-pressure tongue from the south west were approaching the country and the combination of these two systems have caused intense rainfall on the region. Ag the higher level, trough axis was over Turkey, Iraq and Persian Gulf. Short waves displacements along with change in axis positioning eastward caused pressure centers in the surface level to get closer. At this time, all the western part was located under the eastern axis short wave trough, causing intensifying instabilities along with uplifting humid weather and finally a catastrophic intense rainfall on Saghez and its surroundings on July 18 2015. It is important to pay attention to comprehensive watershed management as one of the major strategies for adaptation and resilience in flood-prone areas.

The phenomenon of climate change is the most important challenge and threat to humanity in the future. The climate change is the most important challenge and threat to humanity in the future. Urban areas and human settlements are most vulnerable parts to the climate change. Any change in climate patterns will change the amount of energy. Due to global warming, we will see an increase in the average temperature of the Iran in the coming decades compared to the present. As a result, the country will face a crisis of increasing energy consumption in the coming decades to cold environment, not only in the warm season.

In this research, two types of data forms the basis of research: historical observational data and simulated data on the output of general circulation models. Historical observational or baseline data course covering the period from 1980 to 2005. In the future data section, the output of simulator models in the upcoming period of the CMIP5 model series was used. Until then, the results of the global circulation models do not have the capability for the local dimension, so, in order to compensate for this problem, it is necessary to use the methods of quantum microscopy. In order to achieve the climatic simulation data in the upcoming period, MarkSIMGCM database was used for exponential imaging of the AOGCM models. This database, as a web-based tool, uses a randomized third-order Markov model to downscal the minimum and maximum temperature data, and rainfall and sunshine daily fluctuate. In order to simulate the data for the upcoming period, the output of the proposed AOGCM Models (BCC-CSM1.1, HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3) from the CMIP5 model (Comparison of Coupled Models Compared) with beter spatial resolution was used. The RMSE, MBE, MAE and R2 indicators used for comparison.

The results showed that the HadGEM2-ES model of the CMIP5 general circulation model series has a higher performance and higher compliance with observation data. Assessments showed that under the conditions of climate change in the upcoming period, the amount of heat accumulation will increase. In the middle and far futures, the amount of cooling requirement will increase to adjust the ambient temperature due to increased air temperature. The magnitude of the incremental changes in the number of days of the cold need and the decrease in the value of the heating days is one of the major consequences of climate change in the energy field. At Dehloran Station, the cooling time period will be deployed between April and December. Under the conditions of the change of the climate of the current period, the number of days with cooling requirements will go up, and on the other hand, the time interval required for cooling will be wider. Most cooling needs will occur between June and August. Therefore, the amount of cooling requirement due to the increase in air temperature in tropical areas such as Dehloran is much higher than in high and mountainous areas such as the city of Ilam.

The results showed that in the middle and far futures, the amount of cooling requirement will be increased to adjust the ambient temperature due to increased air temperature. At Dehloran Station, the cooling time will be switched between April and December. Under the conditions of the climate change of the current period, the number of days with cooling needs will go ahead and, on the other hand, the cooling-up time required will be wider. In both patterns of radiation induction, any change in the air temperature pattern will increase the cooling demand of different regions and urban settlements. Therefore, based on the results of this study, it is necessary for planners to take necessary measures to reduce the harmful effects in order to optimize energy consumption and increase the swing in different regions, especially tropical regions. Urban areas and human settlements are most vulnerable parts to the climate change. Any change in climate patterns will change the amount of energy. Due to global warming, we will see an increase in the average temperature of the Iran in the coming decades compared to the present. As a result, the country will face a crisis of increasing energy consumption in the coming decades to cold environment, not only in the warm season.

Keywords:Climate change, CMIP5, Heating and Cooling degree days, Ilam.

Abstract Desertification relates to the both the process and end state of dry lands degradation. This process, with an impact range in more than 100 countries has affected about 1 billion people in the world and is the result of complex interactions among various factors, such as climate change and human activities.The objective of this study is forecasting of effects of climatic and management scenarios on the desertification phenomena in the Jazmurian catchment, located in the Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces, using system dynamic modelling approach. Based on field reconnaissance and literature review, data was collected. In the next step, reference diagrams were created to presenting the causal relationships and feedback based on which the conceptual model for the desertification of the Jazmurian catchment has been developed. The conceptual model was then converted into a model of stocks and flows and run in the Vensim software environment. Model verification was carried out through behavior reproduction tests. Different scenarios of vegetation management and climate were simulated and the outputs of each scenario were compared to the outputs of existing condition. Based on the results, soil criteria, with a score of 1.73, is the most effective factor for land sensitivity to desertification in the Jazmurian catchment. Desertification Sensitivity Index was in critical class with a score of 1.37. The results of scenario analyses for a 30-year period showed that, change in policy and management (1), management of land cover (1.18 and 1.25), and climate change (1.25) are the preferred scenarios for decreasing the Desertification Sensitivity Index. Based on the evaluations and studies, the average weight of the desertification intensity for the current state of desertification based on four factors was 1.37. By comparing this value with the ESAs, desertification intensity class for the entire area is estimated between the fragile and critical (a). Examining the results of implementing the cover management scenarios is observed that if 10 and 20 percent change in vegetation cover and protection against erosion occurs, the sensitivity index after 30 years will reach about 1.25 and 1.18 in order, this shows the importance of managing coverage to Combat Desertification, especially in watershed Jazmourian. Also, management measures in the studied area can stop the desertification process and improve the current situation. The research indicates that the system dynamic approach, as one of the integrating approaches for the assessment of desertification sensitivity in the Jazmurian catchment, is a useful and efficient approach which helps stakeholders enhances their understanding of the causal relationships and feedback in the system.

Desertification, the process of land degradation in arid semi-arid and sub humid areas, is one of the most complex environmental and socio-economical threatening events. Global desertification has serious implications for biodiversity, environmental safety, poverty eradication, socioeconomic stability and sustainable development around the world. The most suitable method for determining the severity of desertification hazard is the use of empirical models. To evaluate desertification, various studies have been carried out both inside and outside the country, which has led to the provision of many regional models, including ESAs and IMDPA models. In the Jaz_Murian basin, the presence of natural constraints along with the lack of suitable economic and cultural infrastructures has led to excessive utilization of natural resources and has exacerbated secondary problems such as migration and poverty.
In addition, in recent years, the Jaz_Murian wetland has been wrecked and the desertification signs are intensifying in the region, so that the studied area has been identified as one of the centers of refuge in Iran. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to use IMDPA and ESAs desertification hazard models to assess the hazard of desertification. The studied area is located in Kerman and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces with coordinates 33 26 to 36 29 north latitudes and 16 56 to 26 61 east and 69374 square kilometers. In this study, according to Jaz_Murian province conditions, studies of two ESAs and IMDPA models were used to assess the hazard of desertification.
Five criteria were used to assess the hazard using the IMDPA model. Each criterion consists of indicators that according to its effect on desertification and according to the region conditions, weighted from 1 to 4. Finally, based on the average of the indicators, a map of each criterion was obtained.
Based on the weighted average of the criteria map, the IMDPA model for the desertification hazard map was prepared for Jaz_murian. The ESAs model also uses a mathematical method similar to that of IMDPA. In the ESA model, three soil criteria, vegetation and climate were used. The range of scores for model indicators is 1 to 2. Finally, desertification hazard maps were obtained using two models.
Here Q1 is indicative of water and climate components, Q2 the geology and geo-morphology, Q3 the ground cover and geo-morphology and Q4 the societal aspect.  Geomorphic facies were used to assess the hazard of desertification using IMDPA and ESAs desertification models. The Jaz_murian area consists of twelve facies; the upper facies of the highest mountains with the highest 1837679.51 hectares (26.3%) were Jaz_Murian.
Desertification models were evaluated in each of the geomorphic facies and finally the desertification hazard class was obtained for each facies.
The results of the study of the hazard map of desertification with the IMDPA model showed that Jaz_Murian province consists of three classes I, II and III of desertification, with the lowest class with 52.22% of the area's area has the highest area. 19.46 percent of the area is in severe desertification. Based on the ESA model, the Jaz_Murian area was divided into four classes (No effect, potential, fragile and critical) and seven subclasses (N, P, F1, F2, F3, C1, C2). Among the classes, the sub-class F2 (29.68%) of the region had the highest surface area. The results of this study showed that, based on the IMDPA model, the majority of the study area (52.22 percent) is at low risk class (I). The ESAs model also divides the area into four classes of desertification risk that the fragile class having the largest area. Soil and vegetation criteria in both IMDPA and ESAs are the most effective factors in desertification of Jaz_murian area.
Flood plain units have been identified as the most critical part of the region due to heavy clay, clay and drainage, with the highest ESAI (ESAI = 1. 53), which requires more attention.
The sand dune workshop with a value of 1.52 is next due to the depth of the soil and the lack of vegetation, and requires management arrangements in this area.
The results of the two models show that the ESAs model is efficient in the Jaz_Murian area versus the IMDPA model.  Finally, it is suggested using ESA model to propose appropriate management plans to control desertification.

This study statistical approach - analytical, with the aim of analyzing change was spatiotemporal height of the boundary layer (BLH) were the order of the height of the boundary layer of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) version of the ERA-Interim with spatial resolution 0/125 ° × 0/125 ° arc period 1979 to 2015 were used. The results showed that the pace of change when boarding height of the boundary layer influenced by the pace of change and seasonal temperature pattern on the one hand and the components of latitude and altitude is. When the maximum height of the boundary layer in June and a minimum height of boundary layer occurs in January. The furnishing and rugged Zagros highlands and desert areas Sawwah has a minimum thickness of the boundary layer and smooth inner regions, especially South-East and Central regions of Iran, the thickness of the boundary layer is at the highest level. Changes in the boundary layer height space in the cold months is more consistent warmer months. Adjacent coastal areas and the sea because the sea moderating role in the temperature always have the minimum thickness of the boundary layer. In the cold months the maximum height of the boundary layer in the southern part of East and especially during the hot months of June and July in the western region and northern and southern Kerman province to be drawn.

Climate change and its impacts stand as the most important challenge to the world. One of the fundamental issues that have emerged in recent decades is the limited water resources. Because of the high dependence on precipitation, water resources are heavily susceptible to damage from climate change. Projection the effects associated with climate change is a major part of strategic planning in the current century. Cold climate regions are the main reservoir and feeding source for surface and underground water and a vital supplier of hydroelectric power in Iran. Any change in the seasonal precipitation situation will have severe outcomes for the status of water resources in cold regions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on seasonal precipitation in cold regions of Iran based on the outputs of new CMIP5 models and radiative forcing (RCP) scenarios. Alongside this, changes were first observed for the period 1980-2005. Afterwards, the data for the upcoming period up to the 2090 horizon were processed using the models BCC-CSM1.1, HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM and GISS-E2-R from the series of CMIP5 models of the MarksimGCM database based on the radiative forcing scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The data were subsequently validated based on weighing method and RMSE, MAE, MBE and R2 evaluation criteria. The results of the processing were drawn on the digital elevation layer (DEM) of cold climate regions of Iran in the form of temporal-spatial seasonal precipitation distribution. Is The results showed that based on the weighing method and applying statistical indices on the output of CMIP5 models, the output of the HadGEM2.ES general circulation model is accompanied by fewer simulation errors in illustrating the climate change of the future period than the observation or baseline period. In fact, based on the evaluation criteria or errors, this model showed a higher compliance with observational data. In the monthly pattern in cold regions of Iran during the cold months, especially in the autumn and winter months, the precipitation parameter indicates a slight increase from 10-20 mm relative to the baseline period. This small increase in precipitation over the coming decades, based on the structure of the models, cannot be stable because of increasing temperature and evapotranspiration. However, in the annual and normal long-term pattern, the precipitation level will be less than the preceding period such that in the 2020-2055 period in the annual pattern, precipitation decreases by 54 mm, equivalent to 20.1% decrease. Seasonal precipitation will decrease in winter, autumn, and summer of the upcoming period up to the 2090 horizon, according to radiative forcing scenarios. Precipitation reduction in the summer will be more severe than in other seasons. Only in spring season will the amount of precipitation in the coming period increase slightly compared to the baseline period. Most of the spatial variations in precipitation distribution will occur in the cold climate regions of Iran in the high-altitude areas of the middle Alborz and especially in high Zagros regions. The center of areas with maximum precipitation in cold regions will mainly move to higher latitudes. In fact, the regions with substantial precipitation will become smaller, whereas areas with low rainfall will be extended. Therefore, climate change will have an impact on the temporal-spatial distribution of precipitation in the cold climate regions of Iran and will face with a future with less and variable precipitations.

One of the most important natural assets is the ecotourism capabilities of each region. Natural landscapes today are considered one of the most important centers of tourism attraction in the world. In this study, using statistical and analytical approaches using natural and climatic data and AHP technique, environmental and ecotouristic resources under the catchment area of Chardavol in Ilam province were identified as one of the major sub basins of Karkheh Basin. In this study, natural criteria were determined by geographic and climatic conditions for measuring ecotouristic capabilities. The results showed that climatic conditions play an important role in weighting ecotourism capabilities under the Chardavul watershed. Regarding the geographical structure of the Chardavol sub-basin, the northern part has a better situation than the southern part in terms of precipitation and relative humidity in terms of moisture conditions. Temperature conditions in the form of average air temperature and cold temperatures were also found in the northern half more suitable than the southern half. From the north to the south, the role of climatic criteria becomes less sub-basin. Latitude and higher altitudes of the northern part of the basin have led to different and more appropriate climate conditions in the region. The overlap of the layers showed that the northern and western sub-basins have better ecotouristic capabilities. The results and achievements of this research are important in environmental management of catchment areas. These achievements can lead managers to make better decisions based on their ecological capability.

The temperature is the most important climate parameter with a major role in detecting the effects of climate change. This study built on a statistical-analytical approach to analyze the hourly temperature variations in Iran. A database with 3,252,800 hourly air temperature records for 28 synoptic stations in the cold season was developed and refined for the 30-year period from 1985 to 2014. Using the linear inference method, the three-hourly synopses of air temperature were converted into hourly temperature. The Non-Parametric Mann-Kendall method was used to reveal the hourly temperature changes. The results showed that a limited number of stations experienced a significant increase in November, whilst a significant decrease was found in most stations in December. The most significant increase is found in the second half of the cold season in February and March. In March, all the stations had a positive and increasing pattern in terms of hourly temperature, and this increase was observed in the minimum hours of the night and morning. On average, more than 5 hours a day, an increasing trend was observed at 0.05 and 0.01 levels at most stations. There is an increasing trend in nearly the whole 24 hours in Meshkinshahr, Karaj, Golmakan, Tehran, Tabriz, Fasa, Yasuj, Khoy, M

Climate change stand as the most important challenge in the future. Horticulture is one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors to the climate change. Climate change and global warming will endanger the production of agricultural products and food security. Because of required longer time to fruit production, fruit trees are heavily susceptible to damage from climate change. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on thermal accumulation pattern in Apple tree cultivation regions of Iran based on the outputs of new CMIP5 models and radiative forcing (RCP) scenarios.
The present study was carried out using a statistical-analytical method. In this study, two types of data was used; baseline data for past period and model output simulation data for the future period. Observation data for baseline period for 53 weather station was extracted from the Iran meteorological organization (IMO). Afterwards, the data for the upcoming period up to the 2090 horizon were processed using the HadGEM2-ES model from the series of CMIP5 models of the MarksimGCM database based on the radiative forcing scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The future period will be refined in the mid-term (2020-2055) and the far future (2056-2090). Afterwards, based on the thermal thresholds, thermal accumulation in Apple tree cultivation areas in Iran processed.
The results showed that based on statistical indices on the output of CMIP5 models, the output of the HadGEM2.ES general circulation model is accompanied by fewer simulation errors in illustrating the climate change of the future period than the observation or baseline period. In fact, based on the evaluation criteria or error measures, this model shows a higher compliance with observational data. In general, the model has a lower accuracy than precipitation in the simulation of rainfall, which is due to the complexity of the precipitation process as well as the structure of the climatic models. One of the fundamental issues that have emerged in recent decades is the change in the potential status or heat accumulation of different regions due to the increase in air temperature. The results showed that due to temperature increase, in the mid and far future heat accumulation will increase compared to the baseline period in Apple tree cultivation areas. Increasing of heat accumulation will reduce the length of the Apple tree growth period, and in fact the Apple tree will complete its vegetative and reproductive cycles sooner. This condition will have negative effects on the quality, taste and color of the Apple varieties. For example, according to the RCP8.5 scenario in the physiological threshold of the apple tree 4.5 C° , in the mid term (2020-2055) and far future (2056-2090) will be 1132 and 2171 active degree days respectively compared baseline period. These conditions equivalent to the 51% and 42% respectively. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, these conditions will be 390 and 680 active degree day, equivalent to 9.3% and 15.1%, respectively, compared to the baseline period.
The results showed that the heat accumulation in Apple tree cultivation areas in the future period will increase compared to the baseline period. One of the most important effects of climate change on the Apple tree cultivation will be due to increased heat accumulation in the upcoming period. Increasing the heat accumulation will reduce the length of fruit tree growth period, and in fact the fruit tree will complete its vegetative and reproductive cycles earlier. According to these conditions, the areas of Apple tree cultivation in the future will be extended to higher regions. These conditions are important for cold regios fruit tree such as Apple tree, in facr increase in heat accumulation will reduce the length of the growing season and, as a result, reduce the quality and yield of the fruit. Based on the spatial distribution, the least heat accumulation in the highlands, especially Northwest and central Alborz, will occured. In natural landscapes of low elevations, valleys and plains in the Northeast, central Southern part of the Zagros and around Lake Urmia, higher heat accumulation will occured in the future. Therefore, one of the effects of climate change on fruit trees will be due to increased heat accumulation in the upcoming period. Increasing the potential or heat accumulation will reduce the growth period of the fruit trees, in fact, the fruit trees will complete their vegetative and reproductive cycles sooner.

  Air temperature is one of the most important climate measurements in the human environment, which directly affects the physical and biological processes of the ecosystem. Understanding this climate measure can be the basis for understanding many of the climatic processes, especially evapotranspiration (due to the climate of Iran). Reanalysis have been used in recent years in many studies, including studies on climate trends, climate modeling, and the assessment of renewable resources, and their high accuracy is confirmed.
The present study aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the open-baseline base temperature data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) of the ERA-Interim version with a 0.125 × 0.125 arc-spatial resolution in a survey with observational data from the weather stations and the National Bassoon database has been designed and implemented. In this regard, the temporal and temporal changes of the temperature of the country were also evaluated. In this study, data from 32 weather observation pods during the statistical period of 1979-2015 were used to validate the ESFAZRI national Database. ERA-Interim, also produced by ECMWF, uses 4D-variational analysis on a spectral grid with triangular truncation of 255 waves (corresponds to approximately 80 km) and a hybrid vertical coordinate system with 60 levels. The ECMWF global model is used for the forward integration in the 4D-variational analysis and the temporal length of the variational window is 12 h.
As stated for the validation of the temperature data of the ECMWF database of the ERA-Interim version, we verified the cells of this site with the data of the 32 well-selected Station in the period from 1979-2015. The nearest cells were selected to be sampled. To verify the two data sets, the R2 and RMSE indices were used. In order to evaluate the changes in Iran's monthly temperature, fractal dimension was calculated. The results of the validation between the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ERA-Interim Emission and Interim National Projections for the period (1979-2015) showed that this base has a high performance, as is seen in most of the pioneering cases in this In the section, more than 98% of the coefficient of determination between the data of this base is observed with the data observed and recorded in the observer weather stations of the country. In the following summer, the fractal has reached its maximum value, reaching 1.63 in August for its grove over the year. Accordingly, the fractal dimension is increased and this increase reflects short-term variations, which means that the standard error also increases. In the cold period of the next year, fractals showed a decrease in value, reflecting short-term changes.
In the cold season from December to March, the average temperature varies from 7.2 to 7.3. The minimum air temperature varies from -3 to -6 degrees, and the maximum air temperature varies from 21.4 to 23.0 degrees Celsius. The dispersion of the December temperatures is more than in January and February. The data distribution was observed positively in December, 0.51, January 0.41, and 0.30 in December. In the cold months, the temperature distribution is more than positive, in fact, the values are less than the average of a higher frequency.
The average temperature in June was 28.2, 30 and 29 degrees Celsius, respectively. The range of changes in June, July and August was 22.3, 20.3 and 19.6 respectively, and the temperature diffraction in these months was 27.9, 20.19 and 18.4, respectively. The range of changes and dispersion in the months of July and August is higher than in September. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the mean air temperature based on the ERA Interim version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data model. The results showed that the model was able to measure the temperature in the long run. The average of air temperature in all months of the year with the spatial component of the latitude is the highest correlation coefficient. The fractal dimension of the air temperature in the cold months is less than the warm months of the year. The highest fractal dimension occurs in the months of July and August coinciding with the warmest periods of the year, which indicates short-term changes due to the stability of the systems in the warm period of the year and long-term changes due to the variety of macro-scale systems in the cold period of the year. This statistic for Iran's temperature has shown that the climate and, more specifically, that the study has been tied to it, temperature is a complex and non-linear system, and has been composed of different measures and interactions.
According to the results, it can be stated that the southern regions of the country on the coast of Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf and the northern Persian Gulf in Khuzestan province require more attention regarding the days of cooling demand in the warm months of the year in order to adjust the air temperature in order to provide comfort in these areas. Should be. On the other hand, the pattern map for each month showed that the Northwest, high Zagros and Northeastern regions required more attention in terms of heating in the cold months of the year

The estimation of land surface temperature (LST) is useful for a wide range of applications such as agriculture, urban heat island (UHI), Energy Management, climate related extreme and climate change studies. The MODIS LST products are created as a sequence of products beginning with a swath (scene) and progressing, through spatial and temporal transformations, to daily, eight-day and monthly global gridded products. The purpose of this study is to analyze the output data of MODIS in order to manage the night time temperature of both night and day in the geographical area of Iran. For this purpose, the MODIS data on land surface temperature which were generated using the day-night algorithm, were extracted for the 2001- 2015 period based on the output of the product called MOD11C3 (V5). Then a matrix with the dimensions of 62258 × 4855 was formed. 62,258 in the array of cells with a spatial resolution of 5 km and 4855 representative designated days, which in the next step were reduced to 62 258 × 12 arrays. 12 being the representative of the months of the year. The final analysis of surface temperatures was evaluated using kriging. The results show that the coldest overnight temperatures of land surface happen in December through February, reaching to -20 degrees Celsius. Also regarding geographical locations, the pattern matches the ripples, especially the western half, North and North-West and North-Khorasan. September is the transition period from warm to cold nocturnal land surface temperature, and March is the transition period from cold to warm temperature. A focus of warm temperature of land surface could be observed in different months of the year. These warm temperatures are dominant in warm areas from April through September. The variety of nocturnal land surface temperature in Iran is high. Heights and ripples are significant factors in determining the nocturnal land surface temperature in different areas of Iran.

The air temperature parameter is one of the most important measures for identifying the climatic and environmental conditions of each region. Today, LST maps can be prepared without physical contact with objects or surfaces by using thermal infrared data. Awareness of the spatial and temporal distribution of LST is essential to determine the land energy balance, and evapotranspiration and meteorology studies are essential. LST is a function of pure energy on the land’s surface which depends on the amount of energy reaching it, surface emissivity, humidity, and air flow. The present study intends to investigate the state of daytime LST in Iran in different months of the year based on the output of MODIS Terra images. In this study, the fifth MODIS Terra product called (Mod11C3 v005) was used with a spatial resolution of 5×5 kilometres and a daytime time period which became monthly data after the necessary processing. In this study, considering the significant precision of the day-night-based physics algorithm of Wan et al. (2002), this method was used to study Daytimte LST in Iran. After the data were decoded, an array was obtained with the dimensions of 4855×62258. Land surface temperature zoning was conducted by using the kriging geo-statistical method with the lowest error rate and the highest precision in mountainous areas. The statistical characteristics of LST in Iran during different months showed that the highest average of LST in Iran with 46.1 °C was in July. In the warmest period of the year, and in particular in the hot zones of Iran (the southern coasts), there is less variation in the temperature which consequently leads to less variation in LST in the country. Hence, less spatial autocorrelation should be observed in the warm half of the year, which indicates a more stable temperature during the warm period. The study of LST during the 15-year period from 2001 to 2015 and based on the output of the MODIS sensor for different months of the year showed that the distribution of LST in Iran was severely affected by geographical conditions, especially its latitude and topographic condition. From West to East and from North to South, there was an increase in LST in all months of the year. The Lut Desert is the warmest area in the country with temperatures rising to 59° C on hot days. The spatial processing of daytime LST in Iran showed that LST was strongly affected by latitude and altitude, and topographic conditions played an important role in the spatiotemporal distribution of LST, which is completely consistent with the studies conducted by those who asserted that each temperature range has a high degree of consistency with its environmental and geographical properties, in particular with its elevation, latitude and slope characteristics. Although the temperature zones provided for the various months of the year have the considerable spatial continuity, some parts of a temperature cluster have appeared in the form of islands in other zones, indicating the effect of complex topographic and local conditions on the occurrence of these temperature islands compared to its surroundings, which causes a spatial variation in temperature and an increase in the desire to LST clustering in Iran, or in other words, to climatic implantation.

The accumulation of chilling during the dormancy period for fruit trees is very important. Failure to chilling requirement will reduce performance and waste of resources. Successful cultivation of horticultural products depends on suitable climatic conditions. Dormancy is considered one of the most important stages in the life cycle of temperate plants. Horticulture and fruit production are one of the most important parts of the country. The bulk of the country's exports are covered with arid and frosty crops. Providing winter chilling to the temperate regions is critical to the lack of attention to this, causing the loss of capital and resources. Measuring different areas through weather stations is an effective step in understanding the climate potential of each area to understand the accumulation of cold. Considering the trend of global warming and climate change, today, the assessment of global warming has been the focus of global studies. The study indicated that a comprehensive study with more stations and long-period hourly data on cold accumulation and calibration of different estimator models was not carried out. Therefore, the present study aims to analyze the winter cold accumulation of cold regions of Iran based on CH, Utah and CP models using statistics. The long-term temperature of three hours of observation of meteorological stations has been designed and carried out.
Methods and Matrial: In this study, the weather temperature data during the recession period was extracted from the Iranian Meteorological Organization (IMO( from 1985 to 2013. The 9744000 hour temperature record for the three different models of estimation of cold accumulation during the dormancy period was set up from November to March. For each model, 3258000 data is provided for the hourly temperature to determine the time series of the accumulation of cold. In order to estimate the accumulation of cold in the country through the meteorological stations studied, three common models of estimation of cold accumulation, chilling hours (CH), Utah units and dynamic model (CP) were used. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall method was used to process the time series changes and the validation criteria were used to calibrate different models performance of accumulation of chilling. Linear interpolation was used to convert the temperature of three hours to the hourly temperature. In this method, the temperature is collected three hours later, at a temperature of three hours, and added to the previous temperature by three-hour intervals. It should be noted that this method is used independently for each three hour period of air temperature based on the temperature before and after it. Operation of this method is provided in the Excel software programming environment for each station and each year from November to March. In order to validate different models of need for cold, MAE, MBE and RMSE validation criteria were used to determine the performancr models of chilling accumulation.

The output of different models showed that the pattern of the accumulation of cold influenced from the height of each region. In all models of higher stations they still have the necessary accumulation of chill. Typically, Yasuj station with a lower latitude has the higher accumulation of chiiling in the doamancr period. The structure of each model is different for quantifying the chilling requirement fruit trees. In the chilling hours model, temperatures above zero to 7.2 are more likely to play a role in the Utah model, because temperatures above 7 to 10 are also chilling effect, so the data obtained in Utah model are higher, which can not be a strong reason for this superiority model. Therefore, it is better to match the different species of chilling requirement trees with the potential of climate and the accumulation of high-temperature multiplier for each region.
The coefficient of variation in the accumulation of cold in the model of CH is higher at higher station with higher chilling. Based on the Utah model, this coefficient of variation is observed in the stations, Ghouchan, Golmakan, Mashhad and Torbat Heydarieh, and in the dynamic model at Tabriz, Sarab and Fasa stations. Estimating hourly temperatures over a long period of data based on different models shows that the highest rate of high accumulation at the beginning of the statistical period has been studied and occurred over the past decades. In fact, cold and relatively cold winters in the past have been more capable of providing more power to accumulate cold over the past decades. In the last two decades, the decrease in peak cloud accumulation has become apparent. The results of stations in Ardebil, Mako, Meshkinshahr, Khoy and Sarab with hours of freezing between 1,000 and 1,200 hours indicate that being located in higher latitudes can not be a reason to provide the required capital for high-demand fruit trees such as late apple, because the Extreme temperature and lower than zero degrees in the accumulation of cold do not only play a role, but also have a negative effect. So the high latitude is not a strong reason to provide the cold caaumulation deciduous with high chilling requirement. The results of the validation tests indicate that the dynamic model, according to MAE and RMSE, has a higher performance among the models.

The evolution of the long-term temperature of the observed stations for the estimation of the accumulation of cold showed that, Based on the model of cold chilling hours (CH), the accumulation of cold from 775 to 1445 hours, Based on Utah's model, the accumulation of heat from 1191 to 2121 units of heat Based on the Dynamic Model (CP), the accumulation of cold temperatures varies between 63 and 96 portions in cold and temperate regions of Iran The elevation factor of the sea level plays an important role in estimating the accumulation of cold in each of the models. In terms of time variation according to the long-term time series, the frequency of peak accumulation in the past decades has been more than recent decades. In fact, the cold season in the past has been more than a decade of cooling power. The trend of cold storm changes based on non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that there were significant changes in significant changes in the stations at Isfahan and Shahrekord stations at a significant level of 0.05. Although there was no significant trend at most stations, the trend slope of the trend line at most stations is important. These conditions can be attributed to the effects of global warming through mild winters in recent decades. The results of the validation criteria of the models for estimating cold accumulation showed that the dynamic model with less error rate in the prediction of cold accumulation has a higher performance than other models. The results of this research are important in providing a comprehensive and initial model of cold accumulation in temperate and cold regions of the Iran in order to adapt the varieties consistent with the climate potential and the pattern of the accumulation of cold in each region.

Identifying the phenological stages and the heating and chilling accumulation of fruit trees on the basis of the climatic conditions is of great importance in discovering the potentialities and identifying the compatible species. Most deciduous trees need chilling and heating accumulation in order for complete growth and development. In fact, chilling accumulation is necessary to overcome the dormancy or sleep period and heating accumulation is necessary for flowering and the change of phenological stages. The study of the phenological behavior of fruit trees is important as an impact of environmental conditions. Weather and climate constitute a key determinant in successful production of deciduous fruits. Identifying the phenological stages and climatic condition requirements for fruit trees can help promoters and gardeners to choose the best and most suitable varieties. This research as statistical-field is an applied research. In the field study part, in order to identify the time of the occurrence of phenological stages and the temperature thresholds, a series of daily and weekly visits and writing field notes were regularly conducted in the growing season of the crab apple tree. For this purpose, a commercial fertile garden with an appropriate cultivated land area of crab apple tree was selected. The garden complex is located adjacent to Karaj Meteorological Station, Karaj-Mahdasht Road, Karaj County, Alborz Province, Iran. In the process of conducting field observations, with the assistance of gardening and horticulture experts, from a set of one hectare of apple trees, four Kohanz crab apple trees were identified in different parts of the garden as an Iranian early-season variety. The phenological stages and temperature conditions were recorded on the basis of principal and secondary codes of the BBCH scale with daily and weekly visits. In the process of field visit, the phenological conditions of the trees were examined and compared, and ultimately, the final date and temperature threshold of the stage were recorded.
The required statistical data for the hourly and daily climatic parameters from 1985 to 2014 were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization as well as Alborz Province Meteorological Department. The chilling requirement was determined through such models as the Chilling Hours (CH), UTAH and dynamic (CP or Chill Portions) models, and the heating requirement was identified through the effective and active growing degree day and growing degree hour models on the basis of Anderson and Richardson’s models. The Mann-Kendall's nonparametric method was also used to determine the process of temperature changes. In the early-season apples, the end and beginning of the sleep or dormancy period occur in late February and mid-October. The longest phenological stage is the fruit development stage, starting from the end of flowering in the first ten days of April till the end of June and early July. In the Karaj climate, early-season apples begin to sprout in late February and are completely asleep in late October. Its winter chilling accumulation was obtained as 1027 chill hours based on the CH model, 1771 chilling units based on the UTAH Model, and 76 chilling portions based on the dynamic (CP) model. Based on Anderson’s model, 7203 growing degree hours (GDH) and based on Richardson’s model, 12086 growing degree hours (GDH) are required for heating accumulation from the end of dormancy to full flowering. During the whole growth period for the seven main phenological stages, 2223 and 3026 effective and active growing degree days are required. The increase in the hourly temperature, especially the minimum temperatures, is obvious during dormancy at the end of the cold season at most hours of the day. The temperature has a significant upward trend in February and March. The climatic conditions of Karaj has the necessary chilling and heating accumulation for cultivation of the early-season varieties of crab apple. Considering the rising hourly temperature, the early emergence of flowering in the middle of the winter in the future and the risk of frost are not unexpected. The output of chilling accumulation determination models on the basis of long-term hourly temperature data from Karaj Station showed that there is sufficient chilling accumulation for the early-season varieties of the crab apple tree in Karaj climate. The highest chilling accumulation occurs during the dormancy period in December, January and February. The chilling accumulation results can be used as a model for other deciduous trees. The climatic potential of the region provides chilling accumulation for early-season varieties, but it is limited for late-season varieties with high requirements. In terms of heating accumulation, there is no specific limitation for the apple trees.
The results of hourly temperature variations in the cold season of the year, i.e. the dormancy period of the fruit trees in the studied area indicated that the air temperature has an increasing trend at the end of the winter season, especially in February and March. This increasing trend is more visible during the night and morning hours when the minimum temperatures occur. This significant increase in the hourly temperature of the cold season of the year and the dormancy period of the fruit trees, on the one hand, will reduce the chilling accumulation of the apple trees and other similar trees, and on the other hand, by accelerating the early emergence of germination and flowering phenological stages at the end of the cold season will bring about a serious risk of late-frost and cold for the early-season apple trees as well as other fruit trees. Hence, it is important to take necessary decisions for dealing with the frost and cold climate crisis.
The results of this study indicated that the temperature conditions constitute the most important climatic necessity for the fruit trees and that fruit trees are highly responsive to any temperature changes. The use of hourly and daily temperature data is of great importance in measuring the chilling and heating potentials in order to select the compatible species with the climatic conditions of each region for preventing the loss of capital and resources

The water cycle and the formation of clouds in different climates are very important. Cloudiness and trends in the spatial distribution days to decide and environmental strategies are important. The aim of this study was to investigate the temporal and spatial variations days of annual changes in cloudiness is based on geostatistical methods. Methods based on data cloudy days were 43 synoptic stations from 1970 to 2010. In order to determine the spatial pattern of different methods of geostatistical interpolation was used. The measurement accuracy of the methods of validation criteria MAE, MBE and RMSE and to assess the trend of Kendall and least squares method was used. The results showed that from North to South and from West to East, Iran, the number of cloudy days is reduced and large spatial differences in the number of day's cloudiness in the country. Distribution Spatio-temporal cloudy days in the country is subject to component location and latitude factor is most effective. Results Criteria validation showed that for cloudiness Annual methods GPI and C / K and in winter interpolation method C / K, in the spring of IDW, in the summer LPI and autumn approaches RBF and EBK greater performance in the spatial distribution cloudiness of Are. The cloudy days in the country was further reduced so that more than half of the stations studied, show the significant decreasing trend. Since the introduction of cloudiness is precipitation, results in the management of risks disasters awareness and management of water resources are important.

Evaluation of water requirement in designing irrigation systems and water supply in agriculture is important. The aim of this study was to estimate and determine the spatial pattern of water requirement of apple tree using weather stations statistics from 1985 to 2013 in apple tree cultivation areas in Iran. Initially, annual reference evapotranspiration was estimated based on the FAO, Penman-Monteith model, In the following, the stages of growth the summer apple Kohanz crab and autumn apple Red-Delicious were identified. Eto calculation annual results and water requirement of growth stages were identified using ArcGIS10.2 as a spatial pattern for each variety. The results showed that the annual ETo in the North-Eastern and Southern regions of the apple cultivation area cultivar reaches more than 2000 mm. The summer apple Kohanz crab has less water requirement than autumn apple Red-Delicious varieties and the middle stage of growth in apple trees have the highest water requirement. The spatial changes in evapotranspiration and water requirement apple trees are due to altitude factor. From the north to the south and from the West to the East, the apple cultivation areas in Iran increases the amount of water requirement.

Dust phenomenon has now become one of the emerging natural hazards in the country, a phenomenon that affects its natural and human conditions with its harmful effects on different aspects. Therefore, in this research, the temporal –spatial distribution of dust in west and southwest of Iran and at meteorological stations located in three provinces of Eilam, Khuzestan and Kermanshah were investigated. For this purpose, the statistics of dust days was collected from the Meteorological Organization of Iran for the statistical period of 1986-2008. At first, the necessary data set was considered for normalization, and then the time distribution of this phenomenon at the level of the stations in the study area was determined in a graph. Further, according to the GIS and ArcGIS10.2 software, the distribution of the annual and monthly spatial days along with dust in west and southwest of the country based on different interpolation methods were determined. The results showed that the number of days with dust in Dehloran, Ahvaz and Dezful stations is at the highest level and in the southern provinces of Eilam and Khuzestan the most critical conditions are observed and from north to south of the region, the number of days of dust increases. Also, the results showed that the distribution of this phenomenon is not affected by regional climate systems due to topographic variation and altitude of the west of the country, and the most days with dust in the southwest are observed in Khuzestan province. In the western regions of the country, there is a high frequency in the middle of the spring. The spatial distribution of this phenomenon is more than the latitude and altitude elevation. According to the results, the criticality of the whole region is important, but in Khuzestan province, conditions are in a more critical situation. Managing a crisis before and during this natural hazard is important for better adaptation to reduce its harmful effects.

Understanding the environmental friendliness of different geographic regions can help the planning and development process of the region. The comfort and health of humans in the natural environment is directly related to the climate. In this research, the comfort and discomfort of different months of the year in Qazvin city in the development of urban tourism based on biochemical indicators; Baker, Tarjong, Neuropsychiatric and Olga, were evaluated using climatic data, also, the cooling and heating requirements were found in months with discomfort. The results of the biochemical indicators show that in general, the human comfort period starts from March and lasts until the middle of October. Most indices show that the months of May, September and October are the most convenient time. From December to late March, due to the air temperature tension and also during the months of July and August due to the warmth of the area, the area under study is outside the comfort zone. Being uncomfortable in cold and hot months of a year. Makes the planning to provide energy for the adjustment of air temperature important. So that in hot months this amount of cooling needs reaches 353 ° C. The coolness of the area reveals the need for a 1163 ° C heating day requirement for cold months in the autumn and winter seasons. Among the indicators of biochemistry used by Baker and Tarjong indicators, the status of biopsy of the region is better. Considering the high capacity of tourism in Qazvin, evaluation and recognition of human comfort and discomfort can play an important role in attracting and developing urban tourism with an emphasis on climatic conditions.

Determination of chilling and heating requirements is an important process for selecting fruit trees specifically adapted to climatic regions. In this study, the thermal thresholds of different phenological stages of apple tree (Red Delicious variety) were determined for further analysis. Long-term hourly and daily temperature data from 1985 to 2014 of Karaj station were collected and used for running three chilling requirement models namely CH, UTAH and CP. The results showed that the chilling requirement of this late variety is not satisfied. A significant decreasing trend in accumulated chilling units was observed. Application of growing degree days (GDD) model confirmed that the required heat units are maintained without limitation. The findings revealed that there exists a significant decreasing trend in occurrence date of phenological stages which might be due to higher temperature during the season. These conditions (earlier onset of vulnerable reproductive phases) increase the risk of frost and chilling damage. In most phenological stages of the apple tree, the mean air temperature showed an increasing trend. According to the results, late varieties are not suitable for current climatic conditions of Karaj climate and should be replaced with early ones. Further agroclimatic studies are recommended for more scrutiny across the country considering the sequences of global warming.

In a recent decades to increase human knowledge on the Earth's climate and concern for people from climate change in the future, thereby has been identified the precise factors influencing Earth's climate. One of the climate phenomena that changes them cause great anomalies of climate, particularly on temperature and precipitation patterns in many parts of the world that are teleconnection. The reveal relationships between climatic parameters and they towards a better understanding of the volatility and climate variability is very important in every area. In this study, the relationship between large-scale and well-known patterns such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America (PNA), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and (PDO) with 9 temperature and precipitation variables in the Karaj synoptic station as monthly were analyzed over a 26 year period (2010-1985). At first, the normality of the data series based on the Kolmogorov - Smirnov was confirmed. In order to examine the relationship between large-scale patterns with temperature and precipitation variables, was used the Pearson correlation coefficient. Correlations on a monthly were assessed basis without delay and a delay of one month. The results showed that the relationship between the NAO index and the temperature and precipitation variables is observed in autumn and winter months and the impact on the autumn months is higher than the winter months. SOI index further communication with the precipitation variables is paramount; the role of this index is more obvious the autumn and winter months, while the MEI index shows a higher correlation with the temperature variables and was not observed particular relevance with precipitation variables. Role and impact in particular on temperature parameters months of spring, April and May and December in late autumn is stronger. PDO index on the temperature and precipitation variables in May is observed more in the middle of spring. PNA index only, is effective on the temperature variables and in December and February, higher communication is paramount. Results are important for greater understanding of the temperature and precipitation variability.

One of the uses of climate in the environmental planning is recognizing the bioclimatic potentials of different regions. In this research, bioclimatic condition inIslam Abade-Gharb City analyzed based on monthly scale climatic data and bioclimatic indices, Beaker, Terjung, Stress, Chilling and Olgay. The cooling and heating requirements in Islam Abade-Gharb city specified by using of daily temperature data and active growth degree days (GDD) method in different thermal thresholds. The results show that, the months of April, May, October and November have comfort bioclimatic and December, January February and March months due to chill stress and June, July, August and September due to heat stress are out of comfort zone. The results of Terjung, Olgay and Chilling indices are more consistent with the climate conditions of the region. Based on the threshold of 10 °C, the thermal potential of the study area from mid-June to end of September reaches to the highest level, In this time period, human bioclimatic is out of the comfort zone and cooling requirements are necessary for adjust of temperature. With respect to the location of this city in semi-cold climate, and the necessity of 207 cooling degree days and 2273 heating degree days, the needs for planning of climate design in order to reduction of energy consumption is necessary.The highest deviation from the optimal thermal conditions occurs from November to December, which necessitate the use of heating to adjust the temperature.The results of this study are important in terms of optimization of energy consumption and the management of heating and cooling systems in residential areas.

The foundation of crisis management and natural disasters is based on pre-occurrence awareness. The necessary measures to reduce the risk of climatic hazards have always been considered. Every year occurred various hazards in Iran. Climatic hazards are associated with specific geographic risks in each region of the country. In the South-Eastern region of Iran, due to the geographical location and natural landscape of the region, more exposed temperatures hazards. The purpose of this study was to investigate and determine the points of the thermal hazard based on spatial analysis in the geographical information system environment.
This study is a descriptive-statistical study using applied research. In this regard, the long-term database of the minimum and maximum temperatures of the meteorological stations (2000-2014) is used to measure the thermal hazards including: thermal waves (severe, moderate, weak, sum), wind chill (severe, moderate, weak, total), frost (radiant , Weight, total). In the following, the relationship between temperature and geographic conditions based on Pearson correlation model was investigated in SPSS software. Then using the GIS capabilities, areas with the same hazards were identified in different zones.
The results showed that the highest incidence of severe thermal waves occurred in northern Sistan and Baluchestan province with Zabol and Zahak center. The highest incidence of wind chill was observed in the central part of the northwest province with a focus on Zahedan and Khash stations. The highest density of exposure to glacial frosts in the eastern part of the province was in accordance with the Zahedan, Khash and Saravan axes. The eastern and central parts of the Sistan and Baluchistan region experience more events than frost. From the north to the south, the frequency and severity of frost is reduced.
Findings: Occurrence of temperature hazards is a hallmark of arid areas. The thermal hazards, especially the heat waves and burns, are subject to the components of the location and show variable behavior with latitude and altitude variations. So far, Zahak and Zabol have the highest heat waves with lower altitude and the most frequent wind chills in Zahidan and Zahidan. Areas close to the coastal strip, such as Nik-Shahr and Chabahar, have the lowest temperature risks. It is important to identify and determine the spatial patterns of temperature hazards to make efficient decisions and implement preventive plans before the occurrence of a crisis.