فهرست مطالب حمیده نظری ندوشن

Propellants and effective variables on the future of Labor supply in Iran's labor market with a combined Delphi approach and structural analysisAbstractThe present research has been carried out with the present of identifying and structurally analyzing the mutual influence of variables and effective drivers on the labor supply in the labor market of Iran in the horizon of 2061. so, in the beginning, through library research and survey of sources and documents in the background of the issue, a number of variables were identified, and so on key variables were determined through interviews with experts and the implementation of the Delphi method and the cross impact analysis questionnaire was designed and completed with the establishment expert panel (consisting of 12 experts in the context of the labor market). By means of MICMAC software, the degree of influence and effectiveness of each of the identified variables was evaluated and accordingly, It was concluded that variables such as age structure, social pressure, per capita income, marital status, immigration, death rate, gross national product, education cost and household cost have the greatest influence on the supply of human resources in Iran's labor market,and variables such as economic conditions (inflation and recession), payroll and government policies are key and propellant factors.

Human resources is one of the most important factors of production that plays an effective role in the economic growth and development of the country. The Human Resources market is more sensitive compared to other markets; because in addition to being affected by economic factors, it is also affected by social and demographic factors. In this research, the determinants of labor supply in Iran were studied by developing a system model based on the qualitative system dynamics Approach. This method helps the policymakers to get a deep understanding of the complexities and delays in the system by seeing the different fields as interdependent. The labor force participation rate as the proportion of the working-age population of a country that is active (employed or unemployed) in the labor market is an indication of the relative supply of labor. The paper uses expert opinions and previous research to identify demographic, economic, and social factors that affect labor force participation, such as marriage, fertility, retirement, immigration, economic growth, job opportunities, human capital, and corruption. According to the results, with the increase in GDP and consequently the increase in job opportunities, the probability of finding a job increases, and foreign migrations decrease. This path, together with the increase in the retirement age and the reduction of corruption, which faces the path of economic growth with many obstacles, can lead to an increase in the labor supply.