فهرست مطالب رضا رفیعی آتانی

This study focuses on developing a conceptual socio-hydrologic model to simulate community response and hydrology interactions in the Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes basin. There is a sharp decline in lake water levels due to agricultural development in upstream areas of Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes, along with droughts that occurred in the 2000s. This study demonstrates the potential of socio-hydrology modeling to describe complex human-water systems applying simple concepts and relationships. For the sociological module, two variables of community sensitivity and behavioral response have been chosen. For the hydrological module, the developed water balance model for dry catchments has been used. It is assumed that changes can be different in human priorities and community sensitivities in the upstream and downstream residents of the basin due to the basin extent and the differences in the region. The time period of the study is between 1996 and 2013. The results showed that the perceived level of threat to a community’s quality of life is low in the upstream sub-region of the basin, which has more rainfall and water resources. As a result, the preferences of its residents are toward using more water and land resources. But in the downstream sub-region of the basin, people have shifted their preferences for using less water and land resources, especially with environmental problems and scarcity of water resources causing a high level of threat to their quality of life.

Water scarcity is one of the most important and influential factors in the pattern of crop cultivation and farmers' profits. This research was conducted to evaluate the effects of rainfall reduction on cultivation pattern and farmers' profits in the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin. To this purpose, a composed model which includes two parts, hydrological and economic was used. In the hydrological section, the water evaluation and planning system model (WEAP) and in the economic section, the positive mathematical planning model (PMP) were used. In this research, the effects of rainfall reduction at two scenarios of 20 and 40% reduction on the agricultural sector are determined by determining the amount of water delivered to this sector and then the reaction of farmers is examined through their cultivation pattern and profits. This modeling was done regionally in 5 separate zones of the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin and compared to the base year (2006-2007). The results of this research showed that with the implementation of the scenario of 20% rainfall reduction, the area under cultivation and farmers 'profits decreased by 33 and 29%, respectively, and at the scenario of 40% rainfall reduction, the amount of the cultivation area and farmers' profits decreased by 36 and 32%, respectively. Among the different crops, the most changes in the area under cultivation were related to alfalfa and the area under cultivation of rice did not changed due to its high profits.