زینب کاوه فیروز

The increasing complexity and, as a consequence, the self-sufficiency and independence of institutions relative to social agents is one of the problems of contemporary societies. In the course of modernization, institutions attain an objectivity that is independent of their actors. This complexity of the community management process creates issues that necessitate a focus on the future and an ability to anticipate trends and processes. Prediction is one of the neglected scientific properties in Iranian sociology. In such a way that sociology in Iran has not made an endeavor in the past fourteen decades to predict the future of a particular institution or field change. Nevertheless, sociologists have made accurate predictions unconsciously. In contrast to the prevailing trend of sociology in the rest of the world, where the future of social institutions, including the family, has received more attention, sociologists in our country have studied a variety of social changes, including revolutions and social movements. This article seeks to analyze the Iranian sociologists' perspectives on the changes in the Iranian family as reflected in their writings, in order to classify and quantify their views on the future of the Iranian family.To answer the question posed above, “what predictions have Iranian sociologists made regarding the Iranian family in terms of marriage, family size, and divorce?” The most effective method is gap analysis, which was initially utilized in engineering and has since been adapted for use in market research.In Iran, there are two distinct perspectives on the future. The first model is the result of a decade’s worth of work by futurists, which has grown increasingly potent over the past five years. Sociologists have a unique perspective on the future. They have rarely claimed the ability to predict the future, but they have expressed concern about family-related future events. Among all sociological theories, two instances can be stated with clarity. First, none of them have claimed to be able to predict the family’s future, even if they have done so in the past. Next, none of them employed conventional futuristic methods in today’s world. Yet, a substantial portion of future researchers’ research methods are derived from sociology as well. Sociology is a diverse tradition in contemporary world studies of the future. In the sphere of method, however, those who discussed the future of the family did not explicitly mention the futuristic method.Contrary to popular belief, Iranian society can be foretold through survey research. This is also evident in the realm of the family.

During the past few decades, the decline of fertility in Iran has been a widespread phenomenon, and Tehran had the lowest low fertility in 2019. Understanding the gap between women's actual and ideal fertility is important because it focuses on the reasons why women are unable to achieve their desired number of children. In addition, it has implications for policy and program interventions related to family planning. This article examines the gap between actual and ideal fertility among married women of 15-49 years old in Tehran and the factors that affect it. the sample consists of 398 married women aged 15-49.  The results showed that the average total fertility for women in this study was 1.58 children, which indicates a lower than the replacement fertility rate. The average ideal fertility for the studied women is 1.95 children. According to the fertility gap classification, 38.6% of women have underachieved fertility, 37.8% have achieved fertility and 23.3% have overachieved fertility. The results of bivariate tests showed that the variables of age, age at first marriage, activity status, education and type of occupation of women were significantly related to their actual and ideal fertility gap. There is a significant relationship between total religiosity and the two Belief and experimental dimensions of religiosity with the fertility gap. With the rise of total family values and modern values shifts the gap between women's actual fertility and their ideal fertility. The results of Multiple logistic regression showed that the age variable and modern values significantly predict the probability of individuals being in the underachieved group. With the increase of age decreases the probability of belonging to the overachieved group, and with the increase of traditional values and empirical empirical religiosity increases the possibility of belonging to the overachieved group. The coefficient of determination of the model indicates that the regression model explains 33% of the changes in the fertility gap variable.

In addition to physiological factors, the determinants of fertility levels in different societies include various economic, social, political, environmental and cultural factors. The impact of these factors on fertility varies across different populations and subgroups. Thus, fertility and attitudes toward childbearing, are not only shaped by the economic factors and costs of parturition, but are also significantly affected by the cultural and societal factors.The purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between religiosity and family values, ​​with childbearing desires and intentions among married women in Tehran.

The research is based on a survey conducted among a sample of 398 married women using multi-stage stratified sampling method in Tehran. In this study, religiosity and its dimensions (belief, ritual, experiential, consequential) have been analyzed according to the Glock and Stark measure and family values using Inglehart's theory in two aspects of traditional (material) and modern (metamaterial) values.

The results showed that mean number of children ever born for women in this study is 1.58 children and the ideal average fertility is 1.95 children. Around 74 percent of women in the study did not intend to give birth to another child, while nearly 40 percent of women considered only one child as ideal. The results of bivariate analysis showed no significant relationship between religiosity and its dimensions with fertility desires, but religiosity can affect women’s fertility intentions. Also, family values ​​are significantly associated with fertility tendencies and intentions. The results of path analysis showed that family value variables (beta coefficient of 0.243) was the sole significant proximate determinant of fertility desires. Age and socio-economic status while directly affecting desires to have children, influenced fertility ideals through religiosity and family values indirectly. Logistic Regression analysis revealed that religiosity and family values had significant impact on intentions in having children but there was no relationship with The results of logistic regression showed variables of religiosity and family values has a significant relationship with fertility intention but the relationship between the socioeconomic status and fertility intention was not significant.  Finally, it can be said women's fertility behaviors are influenced by the socio-economic, cultural and demographic context of society.

Religiosity and family values as a social and cultural structure play a decisive role in the formation of reproductive behaviors. Fertility behavior as the most important variable of population dynamics is a multifaceted issue and a wide variety of economic, social, and cultural factors influence fertility through complex mechanisms. Therefore, it is vital to identify determinants of fertility behavior in order to design appropriate policies in the country. Government policies must also be in line with the desires and interests of women and families.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the social capital and the quality of life among the elderly living at homes and those living at sanatoriums in Tehran. To achieve this aim, the survey method and the questionnaire tool were used to select and study 384 elderly people in Tehran. The findings show that the quality of life of the elderly living at homes is better than those staying in nursing institutions. There is also a significant association between the type of housing of the elderly and their social capital; those living at homes have higher social capital and a better quality of life than those living at sanatoriums. The results also show that there are significant associations between social capital and its constituent dimensions and the quality of life of the elderly. The results of multivariate analysis showed that after controlling for all  the variables, the type of housing still has a strong and significant impact on the quality of life of both elderly groups. However, this effect is stronger for the elderly living at homes than those staying in nursing homes. The variables of social participation, type of housing, social trust and social support have the greatest impact on the quality of life of the elderly, respectively

Currently, cultural consumption is one of the most common ways of forming and constructing identity, affecting the choices like attitudes towards marriage. The purpose of this study was to investigate the attitude of single female employees of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences towards marriage and its link with the amount of cultural products consumption among this population. Using the theoretical framework of the research, cultural products considered in this study had five components: 1- cultural activities, 2-study books, newspapers and magazines, 3 - using satellite programs, 4 - using the Internet, and 5 - using internal media programs (TV, radio, and cinema). These components were measured using a 14-item questionnaire based on a six-point Likert scale. To gather the data, respondents were asked to specify their cultural consumption, according to six points, from ‘not at all’ to ‘very high’. The responses of the respondents were gathered in each case and were considered as a cultural consumption. The statistical population of the study was single female employees working in Shiraz University of Medical Sciences. The sample size was 345, and the data were collected by a survey method, using a questionnaire. The findings of this research showed that a considerable number, 39.1%, had a negative attitude towards marriage which is indicative of changing attitude towards marriage. Furthermore, all of the components of cultural consumption affected attitude towards marriage. In addition, findings showed that use of Internet and subscription to social networks like telegram (BETA=-0.618) had the most significant effect on the single female employees’ attitudes towards marriage.

This study was designed to investigate single girls’ attitude toward marriage with an emphasis on their lifestyle. First, theories of lifestyle and marriage were studied and then a theoretical framework was developed by combining appropriate and consistent theories. The concept of lifestyle has benefited from views of Weber, Bourdieu and Giddens, and marriage from modernization theory. Secondly using statistical techniques and framework of the study, it’s been sought to measure the impactability of people's attitudes toward marriage with four components of cultural consumption, social communication, body management and socioeconomic status as elements of lifestyle that can influence dependent variable of the study. The population of this research was unmarried female employees of Shiraz Medical School, the sample was 345 and data were collected through a survey using questionnaire.
The findings showed that a significant percentage of the sample (1/39 percent) have a negative attitude toward marriage which indicates a change in attitudes about marriage.
All factors of lifestyle have impact on attitude toward marriage, and among four of them “social communication” is the only component that is impacted by the other three (socioeconomic status, cultural consumption and body management), and this variable with beta coefficient of 553/0 have directly and immediately impact on attitudes toward marriage. Also cultural consumption with beta coefficient of 610/0 is the most important determinant variable of attitudes toward marriage.

The aim of this study was to compare the health-centered lifestyles of employed and non-employed women in the city of Shiraz and identify the impact of demographic variables on it. The statistical population of this study was comprised of all women older than 15 years residing in Shiraz. Using a survey method and a questionnaire, 274 employed and non-employed women in Shiraz were studied.
Findings show a higher level of healthy lifestyle in employed women compared to non-employed ones. The results showed that there is a significant difference between women's health and lifestyle based on education and age. The higher the level of education, the higher the tendency to a healthy lifestyle. Also the women of the lower age group had healthier lifestyle and cared more about their health. Finally, the results of Path Analysis showed that with a beta coefficient of 0.252 education variable had the most total impact on women's health-centered lifestyle.

The attitude of Tehran’s couples related to childbearing with emphasis determinant of socio-cultural capitals. Considering the significant role of social and cultural capital components,the present research was designed by the aim to investigate the attitudes of couples in marriage to childbearing pay in Tehran.for the purpose of research, survey and questionnaires were used. according to the multi-stage stratified sampling ,400 couples who referred to health centers in Tehran were selected as sample. Theoretical framework based on Bourdio and Patnam. the variables used to explain attitudes toward childbearing are:social trust, social support, social participation, network of social relations, social networks, consumption of cultural products, institutional cultural capital and embodied cultural capital. regression analysis showed that studied variables explain about 15 percent of the changes in attitudes toward childbearing. path analysis also showed that the most important determinant of attitudes toward childbearing is social participation variable with beta coefficient 0/329, and after this variable, the variables of social networks, institutional cultural capital and embodied cultural capital have the highest share in the attitudes of couples toward childbearing in Tehran.
Key words: attitude, fertility, social trust, social support, social participation, network of social relations, social networks, consumption of cultural products, institutional cultural capital and embodied cultural capital, couples in marriage, Tehran.

The issue of migration and its sequences have been debated as one of the important social and demographical issues. Due to rapid economic and social changes in recent decade, natural geographical and demographical characteristics of the West Azarbayjan province, have been in constant change. Regard to importance of understanding migration characteristics in different provinces, we aim to analyze the trend of migration currents in West Azarbayjan province from 1355 to 1390.
Methodology of this research is Secondary analysis and we used the 1355 to 1390 census data. The statistical group consists of those entered or exited the West Azerbaijan province in 1355 to 1390. In 1355 census, the West Azerbaijan province was an out- immigrant and net- immigration of -3936, and in 1365 and 1375 census was an immigration and net-immigration rate is � and 힏 respectively. Based on 1385 and 1389 census, the net immigration was -26509 and -13881, so the province once again became a out -immigrants. Tehran, East Azerbaijan and Kurdistan had an important effect on the immigration currents of this province whereas together they absorbed more than 50% of these immigrants.

This study was designed by the goal of investigating the attitudes toward childbearing, with an emphasis on lifestyle factors among pre- marriage women referring to health care networks have been conducted in Tehran. For the purpose of research, survey and questionnaires were used. According to the statistical society ,384 women were selected as sample in Tehran. The theoretical framework of this research is edited by emphasis on the ideas of Bourdieu and Giddens.Results showed that the lifestyle and its constituent components (body management, free time, cultural consumption and socioeconomic status) have a significant relationship with attitudes toward childbearing, and 32 percent of the change in attitudes toward childbearing is explained by the independent variables(body management, free time, cultural consumption and socioeconomic status). Also, among the aspects of lifestyle, socio-economic status with beta coefficient 554/0 have the most impact on the dependent variable. In other words, mentioned variable ,In addition to the direct effect on women's attitudes toward childbearing in Tehran, also influence on all aspects of lifestyles, and cultural consumption variable ,in addition to the immediate effect on women's attitudes, is influenced by the other dimensions of lifestyle . after socioeconomic status, body management component with beta coefficient 336/0 is affected on women's attitudes toward childbearing.According to the results we can say that 83.3 percent of pre- marriage women, have compilation and modern attitude toward childbearing and its functions.the results of this review show popularity of two children pattern among pre- marriage women, which can be extracted two children pattern as the ruling ideal and lifestyle of the discursive space in Tehran.

In the last few decades,Iran has experienced sharp fertility decline.Studies indicate that women have a major role in childbearing.This paper examines the relationship between family power structure and fertility behavior in the Tehran city. The data is collected information from around 400 women who are married and have at list a child in the Tehran city. The results of the bivariate analysis showed that the relationship between accessing to valuable resources(education, employment, economic capital),women's mental autonomy, division of household labor, attitudes to gender inequality and family power structure with fertility is insignificant. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicated that among all different variables, accessing to valuable resources and division of household labor are the strong determinants of dependent variable; as fertility rate reduces with the rise in accessing to valuable resources and decline in partnership in division of household labor. Women’s autonomy is the other important variable affecting fertility rate; as fertility rate reduces with the rise in Women’s autonomy. Given the results of this study, population policies in Iran in order to facilitate childbearing for couples should provide opportunities in which women could be able to continue their economic activity, have their social participation, maintain and strengthen their power in family as well as promoting childbearing.

Health lifestyle is known pattern of Collective behaviors that engage in risky health problems and their causes and reasons of health to ensure. Accomplished Explanations mainly have considered on Determinatives such as structural and social factors individual choices. This survey, as a similar approach, focused on discovers the capital causes that influencing on individual choices, which affect on health lifestyle of the Tehrian elderly. Research findings show that almost two-thirds of elderly had a Top of Form
moderate health lifestyle. Considering the types of capital, 56/6 Percentage of research subjects had average economic capital and 62/2 percent had average social capital. More importantly,74/4 percent of elderly had low cultural capital. Assumptions examination results showed that social and economic capital are significantly associated with healthy lifestyle of elderly, while cultural capital is ineffective. Results of regression analysis showed that 16 percent of elderly health lifestyle is affecting by social and economic capital changes, and between the types of capital, social capital and economic capital with 0/186 and 0/136 beta coefficient, had greatest impact on the health lifestyle of the elderly.

The main goal of this study is the effectiveness evaluation of socio-demographic variables on increasing marriage age of working female students of Tehran University. Using statistical method and questionnaire technique، 387 married female students have been participated in this study by cluster-sampling method. The explanatory variables of female students increase marriage age are: educational level، their place of origin، degree of development in their province of origin، differences in attitude on marriage between them and their parents، their socio-economic expectations، the availability of media and social tools in their place of origin، the easiness of relationship between males and females in their place of origin، partner selection methods on their place of origin and the socio-economic status of parents. Regression model analyze indicated that evaluated social populated factors explain about 33pesent of punctuation of marriage age. Using regression analysis and path analyses shows the overall variable effects (direct and indirect) of availability of media and social tools by 0. 435 Beta is greater than other variables. After this variable، the attitude differences of students and their parents and social expectations had important effect on age of marriage. But economical expectations and the socio-economic status of parents has a little role in marriage age.

Healthy lifestyle is known as pattern of collective behaviors that engage in risky health problems and their causes and reasons of health to ensure. Accomplished Explanations mainly have considered the determinants such as structural and social factors and individual choices. This survey, as a similar approach, focused on the capital related causes that influence individual choices, and affect the healthy lifestyle of the elderly in Tehran. Research findings show that almost two-thirds of elderly had a moderate healthy lifestyle. Considering the types of capital, 56/6 Percentage of research subjects had average economic capital and 62/2 percent had average social capital. More importantly, 74/4 percent of elderly had low cultural capital. Test of the assumptions showed that social and economic capital are significantly associated with healthy lifestyle of elderly, while cultural capital is not significant. Results of regression analysis showed that 16 percent of elderly healthy lifestyle is affected by social and economic capital changes, and among the types of capital, social capital and economic capital with 0/186 and 0/136 beta coefficient, had greatest impact on the healthy lifestyle of the elderly. Keywords: Aging, Healthy lifestyle, Chronic Diseases, Social Capital, Economic Capital, Cultural Capital.

According to the vulnerability of the country towards natural disasters, it is essential to plan and take actions in order to minimize their effects and consequences. However, the research activities in this field and also the use of ideas and experiences of relief workers, affected people and also people involved in disasters are extremely effective. In this analytic - descriptive survey, all affected people were studied in the townships of Ahar, Harris and Varzeqan (in East Azerbaijan province). By using stratified and randomly sampling, about 491 people in urban and rural areas of these affected areas were selected and studied based on Cochran formula. According to the census in 2006, the total population was 263,639. (df=95%), (r=0/05) According to the findings, the performance of relief workers was assessed well in distribution of relief items, medical services and first aid. Also, about half of the people were satisfied with the provision of basic supplies and most people were satisfied with the distribution and access of drinking water. Almost half of the people were satisfied with distribution of relief camps and assessed well the emergency accommodation. The results showed that the performance of Red Crescent society has been very well with regard to the extent of the disasters especially in distribution of the required items and health services. Also, comprehensive plan should be done by Red Crescent society in the field of health services because the satisfaction of the health is about average. Necessary planning and prediction should be done in case of disasters because almost one third of citizens are living in rural areas.

BackgroundIt is necessary to plan and study various results of disaster mitigation regarding to Iran vulnerability and also to use of the experiences of affected people and first responders in disasters. This research aims to study first responders and affected people's viewpoints after earthquake of Qazvin two villages (Abdareh & Changureh).MethodsIn this qualitative research, 12 affected ones and 15 first responders (native & nonnative) viewpoints of earthquake were surveyed in 2002 by using of a checklist. FindingsAccording to this study, the affected ones satisfied with first responder's performance but complained about health problems and equipments shortage. Some issue dissatisfied the first responders such as tiredness, road arduousness and distance, lack of suitable transportation, relief facilities, and an integrated management. Despite some deficiency such as lack of a coordinated center and health problems the first responders did their best.ConclusionBoth affected people and first responders had some problems as health problems, equipment shortage and also lack of an integrated equipment and communication after disaster.

BackgroundIncreasing public preparedness is one of the important ways of earthquake risk and damage's reduction. So, for planning this, it needs to study people's awareness, performance and preparedness to earthquake in Tehran. This paper aims to assess Tehran citizen's attitude about earthquake.MethodsIn this observational field research, we selected 1600 family supporters above 15 years old in Tehran. The needed information is gathered and assessed by using survey questionnaires. The used statistics were means; percentages; meaningful tests of Chi-Square; T-test and Pearson.FindingsMore than 90 percent of responders have heard about earthquake possibility in Tehran. Only 45 percent believed its possibility very much; few responders (9.2%) knew about prevention and safety ways and 3.5% ones had enough information about it.ConclusionAlthough citizens of Tehran believe in the earthquake occurrence partly, they had inadequate awareness about the way of prevention and response.