سجاد محسنی

Instability in the West Asian region and increasing uncertainties have caused a large amount of the field of vision of political decision makers in the region to decrease. Accordingly, trend research has been considered as an approach that can increase the predictive power based on fixed variables. In such a situation, the main question is raised, what will the future of the West Asian region be like in the medium term?To answer this big question, global and regional political trends in the form of the critical process of political succession in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, the economization of political legitimacy and the fragility of governments with economic crisis, the place of science and technology in the future of regional power. E. the penetration of the Chinese governance model as an alternative to western liberal democracy in the region, environmental crises and new intellectual and social currents, and as a result the crisis of internal politics, fluidity of regional alliances and coalitions and the lack of trust in official regional structures and organizations such as the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council and their weakening are considered. In the upcoming study, a trend research approach was used to investigate political trends, which is based on documentary and library sources, as well as the approach of experts in the field of regional politics to the subject.

The axis of resistance as a concept accepted in the political space has always been controversial, however, it seems that this concept can not express the behavioral integration of these forces with local conditions and new variables, so the concept of "resistance chain" can be more flexible and diverse. In addition; The important thing is to what extent the behavior of the resistance forces is ideological or geopolitical or even geoeconomic, and what is the pattern of friendship and enmity that governs these forces? On the other hand, the direction and future direction of this axis can also be unpredictable. Now, according to this introduction, the main question can be considered as what are the main variables affecting the future of the resistance chain? In response, it should be said that the five key variables include, first, the economic structure, second, the pattern of friendship and enmity, which includes the type of interaction and communication with the central actor, the type of interaction and communication with the near enemy, the type of interaction and communication with the distant enemy and the type of interaction and communication. Includes the host government, Third, the political structure of the forces, fourth, the social status of the resistance forces among the masses, and ultimately organizational goals, which can be positive or negative, will affect the future of the resistance. The present research has tried to answer the mentioned questions by using analytical-descriptive method and based on documental data collection.

Recent trends in world wars show that technology has become an integral part of these wars. In this regard, one of the aspects of military power can be considered as the ability to produce or acquire superior UAV technologies. The Saudi coalition war against Yemen is no exception. The air superiority of the coalition forces at the beginning of the war was partly covered by the increase in Ansarullah's drone capability; It can be said that the trend of the war has changed significantly since the end of 2018 with the increase of Ansarullah offensive power with the focus on UAV technology. Regarding to this issue, the question arises that what are the dimensions of the Yemeni Ansarullah drone defense attacks in the field and politics? And what impact will it have on the future of regional equations, particularly on Saudi-Yemeni relations? The research has been done by descriptive-analytical method. The findings of the article show that the use of this technology has strengthened the Political situation and position of Ansarullah in the negotiations. On the other hand, with the support of this position, Ansarullah's power in the field of media has also increased to enlighten public opinion.

Saudi Arabia's political system has invariably been known as a regime whose partisan activities are prohibited. This has caused the atmosphere of political activities to enter an informal phase. However, the important question is: Considering such an atmosphere, does the role of the opposition and the opposition political groups against the Saudi sovereignty take an increased turn? How is it possible that these groups can exert a pressure on Saudi's political system for gaining concession or political change? To answer this question, one might say that two key uncertainties come to matter for this take place on the part of the opposition: namely, support or lack of support on the part of foreign actors, and the internal political stability and its relationship with four aspects, namely the intraterritorial opposition withing the sovereignty, the intraterritorial opposition outside the sovereignty, the extraterritorial opposition within the sovereignty, and the extraterritorial opposition outside the sovereignty. On this basis, the research tries to study the role of opposition forces, groups and parties in the form of alternative futures as well as to examine scenarios.

The global geopolitical structure has been affected by various changes, the process of this change, especially after World War II, has undergone various stages that have been persistent. One of the most important dimensions of the transformation of the geopolitical structure of the world has been its influence on regions and poles, especially in West Asia, where, in particular, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the domination of the United States, regional power distribution also changed, and two regional poles Iran and Saudi Arabia confronted each other with two actors on the agenda due to the fear of widespread war and its consequences. Meanwhile, the United States, as an actor in line with Saudi Arabia, tried to compensate Saudi Arabia for deterrence against Iran, thus pursuing unilateral deterrence.

This research is based on the collection of library and documentary data and is attempting, based on the multivariate correlation research method, to link the variables "change in global geopolitical structure", "change in regional levels" and "deterrence from the United States" in the form Analytical and based on the conceptual framework of geopolitical relationship and deterrence.

The research findings can be summarized as follows:1. Geopolitical interaction and deterrence
The transformation of the global geopolitical structure has made the regions once more recognized as the focal points of the crisis. Accordingly, West Asia has also been seen as an area of interest to transnational actors, especially the United States.
 
 2. Evolution in global geopolitical structure and polarization
The expansion of the global scale to regional levels has led to new polarization and opposition between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the United States has worked as the most important transnational player to maintain its regional interests through Saudi Arabia.
 
3. Security link between Saudi Arabia and the United States
With the coming of the Islamic Republic in the region, a new dimension of strategic partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia was formed, which included supporting the Saudi government to provide regional security. Accordingly, the new threat against Saudi Arabia and the inappropriate relations of Iran with the United States led to a US desire to deter Iran.
 
4. Saudi failures to confront Iran and US support
The two major milestones, including the US invasion of Iraq and the 2011 developments, led to a regional equilibrium shift to Iran's advantage, so that Saudi Arabia alone could not be opposed to Iran. Therefore, the United States sought to compensate Saudi Arabia for its shortcomings. Different ways. The United States has increased the pressure on Iran to compensate for Saudi Arabia's geopolitical deficiencies, the creation of structural constraints against Iran, the protection and enhancement of Saudi Arabia's arsenal and military action, and the new strategic partnership and linkage, thereby preventing a regional equilibrium shift to Iran's benefit.

The path of transformation in the global geopolitical structure has been a vertical path that initially affected the macro level of power, then regional levels, and ultimately the relations between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia. In this regard, the fear of a rival war and the inability to win the Iran-Saudi war has led to deterrence. With the United States entering this relationship and supporting Saudi Arabia, the atmosphere of regional power has fluctuated. In this regard, although the time periods after 2011 were regional conditions for the benefit of Iran, but with the arrival of the Trump government, the balance was shifting to Saudi gain.

Conclusion

The takeover of the new US administration has led Saudi Arabia to repair its relations with the country. The withdrawal of the Trump government from the nuclear deal with Iran has also changed the context for rebalancing Saudi Arabia's profits to the detriment of Iran, especially since the Trump government has tried to force other global actors to exert pressure on Iran, Unlike Obama, the Trump term is that the regional balance of power is changing for Saudi Arabia.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the transformation of the power structure from bipolar to monopolitic, the regions became more important as sub-systems; Accordingly, the United States has sought to redistribute power in the regionsthe main question is what are the variables of the continuity of strategic relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia? It is hypothesized that the continuity of the relationship variables can be summarized in: "continuity of relationships based on shared interests and threats," "the scope and nature of military relations," and "economic interdependence". Accordingly, the study attempts to investigate issue based on the causal research and multivariate correlation,and the basis of documentary data, . Finally, the common interests and threats, the type of communication and the movement from economy to security and asymmetric reciprocity, have provided the context for the strategic link between Saudi Arabia and the United States, which underscores the continuation of the strategic relationship between the two countries. Iran is a common threat between the two countries of the Islamic Republic. Since the ability to confront and at least the Saudi Arabia's supremacy on the Islamic Republic is difficult, unilateral deterrence is a strategy adopted by the United States

Yemen’s future and that of the parties to Yemen’s war involved will become more complicated, as this war has been prolonged and the Saudi Arabia-led alliance has invaded Yemen. Therefore, there is a variety of questions concerning the future of war in this country. Considering the explanation above, the main question appears to be, ‘how will the end of the war between Yemen and Arabia be?’ Additionally, what are the means by which Saudi Arabia’s influence and presence in Yemen are realized? To answer this question, we firstly refer to Arabia’s military presence, political influence, and economic and cultural influence in Yemen; then, actors involved including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, parties inside Yemen, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the United States of America, the United Nations, and Kuwait are addressed. This is followed by an examination of key uncertainties and the forthcoming measures to be taken that involve imposing negotiation on the alliance (with the centrality of Arabia), provoking a decisive showdown (with the centrality of U.S. action), a divergence in the alliance (with the centrality of the United Arab Emirates), and struggling when in dilemma (based on Ansarullah's conditions). By the same token, this is what futures studies approach seeks to analyze by way of determining key actors, drivers, key uncertainties, extracting and explaining scenarios, and finally Wild Cards, a conclusion, and recommendations are provided.

The emergence of ISIS can be considered the most important Middle East security crisis since the recent uprisings in the Arab world, because the way to deal with this new actor has turned into a serious problem with regard to the tumultuous interests of global and regional actors. Regardless of the development and consequences of these developments, the key issue is the choice of the current geopolitical area of ISIS to realize its primary goals and its strategy for selecting the geographic regions in question. Accordingly, the main question here is the selection of actors was attacked by this non-state actor. In this regard, the present study seeks to analyze and explain this issue by using existing documents and works with explanatory and exploratory methods. The achievements of this study indicate that, in view of the efforts to survive and the need for the land by ISIS, along with the different situation of the Islamic societies, it seems that, in addition to the ideological criterion, it seems that there are other variables including internal variables such as economic ability and the ability to unify These groups and external variables, such as political stability, the potential for ethnic and religious gaps, and the economic and political power of the invading countries in the election of ISIS, are influential.

Iran and how to curb its regional influence has been one of the most important concerns of Saudi Arabia, especially over the past decade. The authors of this article maintain that the Saudis, through the adoption of a particular approach, has sought to expand their communication network in different areas in order to create integrated deterrence against Iran with the aim of compelling it to change its regional strategies. The main question asked in this article is how Saudi Arabia uses integrated deterrence to counter and contain Iran.

Security has kept its status as the most important priority in state foreign policy. However, since there are different understandings of the notion of security among states, it creates conflict of perceptions which leads to 'security dilemma'. The Islamic Republic of Iran as a major power in the Middle East, relying on its experiences of the eight-year-war imposed on it by Saddam Hussein, is enhancing its defense capabilities. This trend has made concerns among Arab states of the Persian Gulf who seek for their security and defense enhancement through huge arms purchases from abroad. The output of this threat perception is seen in their relations and political positions toward Iran. The present article aims to assess the impacts of Iran’s homegrown military achievements on political positions of Middle East countries, in particular the members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.

Developments relating to the Islamic Awakening in the Middle East, especially in 2011, influenced and intensified, more than ever, the efforts made by the Obama Administration to securitize nuclear activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, these activities have always been one of the major preoccupations for the foreign policy the USA. Obama followed up seriously on what George Bush did, especially during his second term. The approach of both US presidents, predicated on considering the Iranian nuclear energy programme as a threat against the US and its interests, has its root in the security-oriented approach, and its adverse consequences, towards the Iran. Therefore, a major part of Iran's foreign policy has been influenced by nuclear activities. This paper proposes to consider the process of securitizing Iran's nuclear file, especially under Obama's administration, on the basis of the conceptual pattern provided by the Copenhagen School and from speech act and action perspectives. This paper seeks also to answer the question as to what methods Obama has used to securitize Iran's nuclear file. It presupposes that the attempts to isolate Iran have been made through speech act and actions.

Taking the 'Copenhagen School' as a framework for security analysis, this article argues that if we consider the Middle East as a concentrated regional security complex which is subject to intervention of an external power, we should assume the United States as the major trans-regional player in the Middle East security context which, due to its interests in the region, has certain sensitivities toward this complex. On the other side, Iran as a fast-developing independent regional player is perceived as the most disturbing challenge for the United States and as a threat for US interests. Applying the notion of "securitization" in the Copenhagen School, the article aims to study the objectives of the United States in securitizing Iran's peaceful nuclear activities and in its drive for isolating Iran. The authors will try to elaborate on this point considering the concepts of 'threat' and 'security' and the historical context of Iran-US relations after the victory of the Islamic Revolution.