سعید زنگنه

The issue of tourism competitiveness is welcomed as the country's ability to optimize its attractiveness for international visitors, and provide quality, innovative, and valuable tourism services to gain a share in the global market. The present research aims to investigate the relationship between travel and tourism competitiveness index in increasing the development of the tourism sector in Islamic countries.

 Design/methodology/approach: 

Correlation between research indicators was done using the Pearson correlation coefficient in three levels of travel and tourism competitiveness indicators using SPSS 23 software. Panel data analysis and fixed effects were conducted to investigate the relationship between travel and tourism competitiveness index and tourism development indicators using STATA16 software.

Findings:

 The findings of the research show a positive and meaningful relationship between a number of travel and tourism competitiveness indicators with the arrival of international tourists and tourism revenues.

The positive and important results for the index of cultural resources in relation to the arrival of tourists to Islamic countries indicate that cultural and religious resources and places play an essential role in attracting more tourists to Islamic countries.

Originality/value:

 The most important innovation and originality of this research is the test of the relationship between the competitiveness indicators of travel and tourism in Islamic countries taken from the data of the World Economic Forum at three different levels, the test of the relationship between the indicators of tourism development and the competitiveness indicators of travel and tourism in the Islamic countries and considering four control variables taken from World Bank data to achieve more accuracy.

The spatial structure of the city has an important effect on economic efficiency and the quality of the urban environment. Inefficient spatial structure, by unnecessarily increasing the distance between people and their place of activity increase the length of the city's infrastructure network maximizes operating costs and intra-city travel. Analysis of the spatial structure of the city is important for a better understanding of urban development and provides the information needed to evaluate the effectiveness of planning plans for general managers and urban planners. The purpose of this research is to analyze the spatial structure of Ahvaz city and identify functional cores. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical method. The method of data collection is library and documentary. The data include statistical blocks of 2016 and land use layer of Ahvaz city. Kernel density, spatial autocorrelation test, and central mean were used to identify functional cores. . Hot Spot Analysis and spatial autocorrelation test were used to analyze population distribution and employment. Pearson correlation was used in SPSS software to investigate the relationship between functional cores and population and employment and geographic weight regression was used to model the spatial relationship. The research results show that the distribution of population and employment is clustered. In the central and marginal areas, population density and employment are low, and in the middle areas, the density is high. In terms of the proportion of attractive tourist uses in region one (Bagh Moin, Ci metri, Abdolmajid Bazaar, Sheikh Bagh, Saebin Mandai neighborhoods) have the highest concentration and are the main core of the city and Lashkarabad, Kemplo Jenobi and Zetoon karmandi neighborhoods are sub-cores. Also, the spatial correlation between functional core and population density is relatively low.

To evaluate and explain the role and place of urban governance in the process of intervention in the limits of worn out and inefficient tissues of Mashhad city. In this article, an attempt has been made to answer these questions, what are the features and dominant approaches in each period? Who are the main actors of each period and how do they play a role in this process?Research

This research is based on a qualitative approach and aims to determine the role and position of urban governance in this process. Observation, interview and questionnaire (targeted sampling) techniques have been used to collect the required information.Findings and

The results of this research show that two different and distinct approaches can be distinguished in the examination of a 30-year period (1370-1400). In the first period, the dominant approach of intervention in these contexts is renovation combined with an economic and project-oriented perspective, without taking into account the participation of residents and the local community in this process: In the second period, the approach of urban regeneration has been carried out with the view of attracting the participation of residents and the local community through facilitation and the creation of neighborhood development offices and changing the attitude of the government and the public sector from renovation and project-oriented to sustainable urban regeneration. According to the characteristics of activists of each period, different interests and interests as well as the power to influence other activists were investigated and analyzed.

In this research, the precipitation data needed for the stations of the study area during the statistical period of 1981-2015 was obtained from the Meteorological Statistics Center. To predict and produce statistical data from 2026 to 2065, the LARS-WG and CLIMGEN models were used. In this study, bootstrap method was used to assess precipitation uncertainty. The correlation between the observed and simulated monthly rainfall data shows that the CLIMGEN model simulates the synthetic rainfall data more accurately. The lowest error of the RMSE and MAE in both of these models is at Jolfa Station And the highest error in both models was measured at Sardasht station. Estimation of precipitation output (mean precipitation) by LARS-WG model with bootstrap method indicates higher uncertainty of LARS-WG model than CLIMGEN model. The variance of precipitation observations also indicates a significant change in confidence intervals in the spring and autumn months. Therefore, with regard to the above, it can be said that in the case of rainfall, the LARS-WG model shows more uncertainty than the CLIMGEN model in most of the studied stations in the study area. The absolute magnitude of annual precipitation error with the output of the CLIMGEN model is less than the magnitude of the error with the output of the LARS-WG model. This indicates a lower error value of the CLIMGEN model in the simulated precipitation spatial uncertainty than the LARS-WG model in the northwestern region of Iran.

Extensive progress in supply chain management operations and logistics research has led to the changing nature of the competition in modern businesses. In the supply chain process, the performance of supply chain management is an important and key factor for the acquisition of competitive advantage. The purpose of this paper is to use a structural approach-complexity interpretation of supply chain and its role in competitiveness in automotive industry in the automotive industry. This paper is in terms of development goal, which by using the combined method, in two stages, including identification of indicators by thematic analysis method and its test was conducted using a correlational survey. The statistical population of the paper in the quality phase of the managers of Iran Khodro Company of Khuzestan province and professors and in the quantitative phase of managers, employees and staff of Iran Khodro Company of Khuzestan Province is a small part of the formation of a structural self-interactive matrix to follow structural and interpretive modeling. The sample size in the qualitative phase was determined by the method of judgement. The results showed that 3 main indices and 15 sub-indexes were identified as the main model factors.

It can be stated that the right to health is one of the most basic and most important rights of citizens in the city, as it has been emphasized by numerous reports, charters, laws, approaches and world theories. The right to urban health stipulates that everyone with any attribute, attitude, socio-economic status or location of residence is entitled to full physical, mental and social health as well as the determinants of health including proper income, proper housing, safe drinking water, parks and green spaces, clean air, walkable sidewalks, etc. Because of the importance of the right to urban health and the necessity of collecting and introducing its variables for measurement and presentation, the present study aims to identify and evaluate the right to urban health and its variables. The present study uses a descriptive-analytical research Method. According to the results of the study, a total of 57 variables were identified for urban health. These variables were reduced to 31 at the final stage of selection conducted with interviews using the Delphi method. The results of the analysis of the effects with the FLMICMAC software showed that the variables of proper income, education and information, social justice, social health, rules and policies, cultural health and healthy physical environments were the most influential variables, respectively; whereas the variables of social health, health engagement, social justice, mental health, social capital, security and safety, bodily health, cultural health and healthy physical environments were the most influenced variables of the right to urban health, respectively.

Temperature and precipitation are the basic elements of climate. Therefore, sudden or short-term and long-term changes may change the climate of any location. The aim of this study was to predict trend indices of climate extremes using statistical downscaling methods and artificial technical data generation. In this study, in order to achieve these goals, The climate data of temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours during the period 1981 to 2010 was received from Meteorological Organization. Then, using CLIMGEN statistical models and observational data of selected stations of the basin, data produced over the period of 2020-2050. Then, using RClimDex software, extreme temperature and precipitation indices were extracted. Finally, the by use of MINITAB software the climate trend indices were drawn at selected stations of Urmia Lake basin. For validation, the prediction was accomplished by observational database period of 2001-2010 through the model. The relationship between generated data with the observational data was analyzed by SPSS, which showed high accuracy in most stations. The maximum absolute error of precipitation in the station of Orumieh was 4.69 mm and the lowest in Tabriz station with 3.7 mm. The highest mean squared error of precipitation in the Takab station was obtained with 6.4 mm and the lowest in the Tabriz station was 4.14 mm. Results indicated an increase in temperature and precipitation extreme events including increases in summer days, and very humid days of consecutive dry days at selected stations proved to be located on West and East basins. The increase of icy days and the reduction of summer days were shown while very wet and dry consecutive days were observed in the southern selected station.

Accidents are the most important factors in today's world, and accidents within the city may lead to further damages and traffics , due to the importance of this issue ,further research should be focused on accidents. In this thesis, the statistics taken from traffic patterns in Tehran have been used to predict the traffic accidents in the city of Kermanshah with simple linear regression models as well as multiple linear regression correlation between variables in the model. The aim of this study was to predict the total number of crashes, accidents leading to property or bodily damages and or death , according to the statistics of the variables in the Kermanshah Province. Variables in this study or variables that are imported in the regression model are : the study of total number of accidents, accidents with damages, maim and death, the number of accidents on sunny, cloudy or rainy weathers, and other vehicles responsible for accidents within the city (Kermanshah Province) during the four years from 1383 to 1386 on a monthly basis. In this survey softwares like Excel or Spss 16 has been used for calculations. The results show that the average of total number of accidents in the city of Kermanshah is 478.6 per month and the average of 466.53 damages and 67.37 bodily damages and 2.63 death accidents per month. The correlation between the variables shows , the total number of accidents with number of damage accidents equal to 0.941 and With the number of Death accidents is 0. 603 and With the number of accidents on sunny days equal to 0. 660 , that is a strong positive correlation so the increase in each of them will lead to the increase of others.

This article argues that the world has only one atmosphere and that the adverse impact of emitted pollutants often cannot be confined to a single location or region. Any air pollutant with an atmospheric lifetime of at least three to four days, may be transported across a continent also it would take a week or two to get it across an ocean, a month or two to be moved around the hemisphere, and a year or two to be delivered anywhere on the earth. As population and living standards are growing in many parts of the world; often, they result in increasing pollutant emissions. The results indicate the impact of air pollutants on crop yields and the viability of forests, grasslands, and other natural ecosystems. Many studies have unveiled the interplay between air pollution levels and climate change on scales ranging from regional to global. All of these concerns have led to increasing international efforts to recognize and measure the long-range transport of pollutants. They have also spurred attempts to predict how expected changes in population, production of food, energy, goods and climate will impact future pollutant transport and air quality.

The prediction of probability of drought occurrence in different years and its mitigation measures are at the peak of drought management decisions. The aim of present research is the prediction of drought by the use of downscaling statistical methods and artificial data creation technique. For getting the work done, a synthetic study was carried out by utilization of meteorological stations data, the outputs of statistical analyses and finally using SPI drought index. First, artificial data was produced through CLIMGEN, then SPI value was predicted. Then Minitab software was used for the calculation and drawing of the trends in selected stations of the North West.  For validity approval the model was adapted by observational and produced data. The correlation between artificially created data and observed data was estimated by SPSS software. Results indicated a suitable validity for most of the stations. Accordingly, Ardebil, Jolfa, and Tekab show a smooth precipitation declining and drought increasing trend. Khoy, Mianeh, and Sardasht are among the stations which prove a moderate precipitation and increasing wet conditions, while there were not seen any changes in Tabriz, Urmia, and Parsabad stations.

The present study aims at synoptic analysis of Saudi high and its effect on the drought of southern and southwest of Iran. Located in the south and southwest of Iran, the precipitation data of 28 synoptic stations during a 10-year statistical period (2000- 2009) are gathered from the Iran Meteorological Organization. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the drought period of the region was extracted, in which 2008 was considered as the driest year. Moreover, synoptic maps were determined and analyzed in 4 levels, called sea level pressure, height, and Omega at 850, 700 and 500 HP during January, February, March, April, November and December. The central closed contour of the precipitation in 6 months of 2008 on a daily basis at various levels revealed that geopotential height contour is closed at 850 hPa, 700 hPa, and 500 hPa as 0.77, 0.98 and 0.99 respectively. Besides, the central closed contour in 2001 during the 6 humid months showed daily that the geopotential height contours are closed at the level of 850 hp in 0.68, 700 hp in 0.83 and 500 hp in 0.77. Since there was a severe drought during 2008, it is revealed that more contour of center anticyclone is closed. Furthermore, centered anticyclone over land was as east-west in 2008 and 2001 which is more common in the combination of north of Africa and the anticyclone of Saudi Arabia. In addition, the ridge has been locating on Iran and Saudi Arabia in recent years dominating the stability in the area. Therefore, Mediterranean trough cannot penetrate lower latitudes moving to higher ones. In conclusion, the southern half of Iran is not affected by precipitation systems. However, the low pressure of Sudan has been progressing on the Red Sea and not penetrating in the study area.

The weather forecast data plays an important role in future planning in the natural and human fields. This includes the forecast of droughts and floods, etc., which can reduce potential damages that threaten the preplanned programs. Using CLIMGEN and meteorological data (1961-2009) of Tabriz station, this study forecasted the meteorological data for the years 2000- 2009. Next, the correlation between the data and the observed data of SPSS16 was observed. Then, based on the correlation between observed and simulated data, a prediction was made for the meteorological data of Tabriz region during the period between 2016- 2040. Finally, the wet and drought periods during the study were calculated by SPI and were simulated. The results showed the steady diminishing of rainfall trend in the two periods of 1961-2009 and 2016-2040. On the other hand, the predicted period has shown a rise compared to the wet and drought periods being far from normal. For the year 2040 in the region, general circulation models of the atmosphere HADCM2 and A1BAIM scenario were modeled and MAGICC-SCENGEN for Exponential Scale Tiny data output with a resolution 2.5 to 2.5 general circulation models were used. The results obtained by the use of the model indicate a reduction in the rainfall and an increase in temperatures in the area under study.