سهیلا خوشنویس یزدی

In this study, by analyzing the quarterly data of Tehran stock exchange price index, liquidity, the transfer of state-owned enterprises to the non-governmental sector through the stock exchange and the total transfer of shares during the years 2003-2004, and collecting about 48 samples using the Vector Self-Regression Model (VAR), the assumption of the influence of the independent variables on Tehran stock exchange price index has been tested. In addition to the assignment of state-owned enterprises to the non-state sector by the stock exchange, two variables of the liquidity volume and total transfers can also be effective in evaluating these effects on the index.

Over the past several decades, the relationship between tourism spending and economic growth for both developing and developed countries has been extensively researched.1 Knowledge of the causal relationship between tourism spending and economic growth is of particular importance to policy makers, as tourism policies are becoming major concerns for these countries.. In many instances they are important in offsetting current account deficits and negative balance of payments. On the other hand, since international tourism contributes to every sector of the economy, budget deficits also benefit from these activities via tax revenues. International tourism brings foreign exchange that can be used to import intermediate and capital goods to produce goods and services, which in turn leads to economic growth. The significance of this sector can be manifested from the fact that it raises revenues, generates employment.This study investigated the relationship between tourism arrivals and economic growth in Iran for1980 to 2012, using relationship between international tourism arrivals, real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rats and political instability, using ARDL and Granger tests. The results show there are short -run and long -rung between tourism expenditure, real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rates and political instability in Iran are cointegrated during the sample period. The results Granger causality test suggest that there is a bidirectional causality between real effective exchange rate and real output and in the short-run and long-run. However, between the international tourism arrivals, real output and real effective exchange rates are bidirectional causality in short-run and long- run.These findings show that tourism is in part an endogenous growth process, and verified the presence of the tourism led growth in the case of Iran. Moreover, they indicate that tourism has mattered in the economic growth process. In addition, our results showed that the hypothesis of tourism exports driven by economic growth is better suited for both studied economies.The prospective tourists will have more confidence to visit Iran. It is therefore imperative that government institutions, tourism planners and investors recognize the implications of their actions in the interest of long-term economic viability of the tourism sector. A successful strategy for tourism development should not be measured only in terms of increasing tourist numbers or receipts. Tourism should also be evaluated in terms of its role in the overall development objectives of host countries.

Setting Exchange rate in a good manner, paying attention to its changes and the factors affecting it in any circumstances, can be a topic of discussion. On the other hand, an increase in non-oil exports has been the main economic policy of the Iranian government in recent decades. To get rid of single-product economy, the development of non-oil exports for the Iranian government is a necessity. Iran's share of global exports has not been dramatic over the past years, and this makes the development of non-oil exports necessary in order to reduce the country's economic dependence on oil revenues. In the present study, by stipulating appropriate model, from econometric method, ARDL model was used to examine the short-term and long-term effects of real exchange rate changes on Iran's non-oil exports during the period 1983-2013. Non-oil exports in this study have been measured using the variables of the real exchange rate, Iran's trading partners GDP, GDP and credit to the private sector. Estimation results suggest that symptoms of estimated coefficients are consistent with the theoretical basis of all variables, and results show that changes in the real exchange rate at level of 5% error in the short and long term have a positive effect on non-oil exports. Effect of Iran's trading partners GDP, GDP and credit to the private sector on non-oil exchange has been positive.

Iran has a great potential in the fields of environmental, historical, and cultural heritage. Relying on these capabilities can be expanded with its own tourism industry. Tourism development for developing countries with problems such as high unemployment rates, foreign exchange and economic monoculture is encountering resource constraints. The heavy reliance on revenues from crude oil exports is of great importance in the economy of our country. Therefore, reliable forecasting and analysis of effective planning in industries related to tourism marketing is an absolute necessity. The main objective of this study is to estimate the demand of foreigners to tourism in Iran and to measure the impact of global GDP, the official exchange rate, consumer price index and oil prices on the demand for tourism in Iran. In this study, the method of ARDL model with the help of Tmymbafth Dykyfvlr unit root test and cumulative test Johansson was applied. Based on the evidence available, all the variables discussed in this study are meaningful and consistent with the theory. The review concluded that the price elasticity of demand in the consumer price index variables in long-term oil prices are stretching and official exchange rates and global GDP variables are inelastic. Cholera review found that the income elasticity of tourism products is essential.

Today,the most important goal of economic countries is achieving to economic Growth through productivity improving productivity improving can be achieved by optimum utilization of the production factors and it plays an important role in continuous economic growth and sustainable development.  Productivity of factors of production in agriculture sector is very important.Because in Iran,agriculture is the largest production sector after oil and services that has allocated around 20 present of Gross national product and main share of non oil export to it.Moreover,relation between agriculture former and hinder with other sectors will help output growth and employment,by increasing population and limiting resources,require optimum utilization of resources and increasing production factors productivity.In this study,data have been used as annually time series of data for the period of persian data 1350 till persian data1387.And variable of agriculture productivity is computed by using Kendrick index and then influence of agriculture productivity to economic Growth is estimated by model of ARDL and ECM that the test results indicate the signs of estimated coefficients for all variables match with visionary asters and the variable of capital,agriculture productivity,labor have positive and meaningful influence in economic Growth.And Granger causality test showed that there is a overhand relationship from agriculture productivity to economic growth.