فهرست مطالب سید مرتضی مرتضوی

Introduction :

Due to the complicated and abundant energy needs of cities, as well as the crisis brought on by the usage of fossil fuels in cities and global warming, optimizing energy use is essential. In this sense, creating smart and sustainable cities—which take into account a variety of sustainability-related factors—represents a significant strategy for reducing energy consumption and accelerating the shift to clean energy through digitalization. A smart city is a city whose construction is developed based on information and communication technology (ICT) sustainable urban development is “the process of change in the environment that strengthens economic development while preserving resources and improving the health of the individual, society and ecosystem”. A large amount of research indicates that the primary focus of smart cities is the field of technology and how organizational characteristics and capacities influence its application; design considerations have been overlooked in this regard. Sustainable cities, however, consider design concepts and principles and ignore smart aspects. Thus, we can discuss sustainable smart cities by bringing together these two concepts. A sustainable smart city is the application of information and communication technology to meet the needs of its current residents without endangering other people or future generations, which facilitates achieving sustainable urban development and improving the quality of life. However, policymakers and stakeholders related to smart cities lack practical research-based recommendations to support the development of sustainable smart cities. Governments may not be able to offer citizens high-quality services if they fail to take into account several factors while formulating policies about the development of sustainable smart cities. As a result, the main goal of the research is to identify and rank the factors affecting the development of a sustainable smart city, and the research questions considered in this article are: What are the factors affecting the development of a sustainable smart city with a focus on optimal energy management? What are the influencing and affectability factors in the development of a sustainable smart city? To answer the questions raised, this paper proposes a model for how to address them in the sustainable smart city agenda. The results of this research help managers, policymakers, and urban planners have a clear picture of sustainable smart city development.

The purpose of this research is to provide a model of factors affecting the development of a sustainable smart city. For this reason, binomial statistical tests and fuzzy DEMATEL methods were applied. Both components are quantitative techniques and use quantitative data for analysis. The binomial test is a non-parametric test for screening factors. By using SPSS software and the binomial test, the significance level is calculated for the factors, and the factors whose significance level is more than 0.05 are removed. DEMATEL is a method that identifies the direction and intensity of direct and indirect relationships between factors in a complex system through matrix calculations and related mathematical theories. The current research is exploratory in terms of its purpose (due to the identification of the effective factors of the research). From the point of view of orientation, it is applied (using the results in the analysis of the important factors of sustainable smart city development) and in terms of methodology, it is mixed. The theoretical research community includes professors, managers, and experts. Also, the sampling method is judgmental and based on expert knowledge and judgment. It should be noted that the sample size in this research is 15 people. The stages of the current research include:1) Literature review to identify factors influencing the development of a sustainable smart city 2) The initial screening of the research factors using a binomial test 3) Determining the most effective factors through the fuzzy DEMATEL method 

The findings of the research show that initially, 20 effective factors for the development of a sustainable smart city with a focus on optimal energy management were extracted with an analytical review of the research literature. Then, by analyzing the binomial test, 10 factors of education and empowerment of citizens, control of pollution level development of private and public collaborations, traffic management systems, development of innovation and entrepreneurship, attractiveness and urban competitiveness, management of resource consumption, urban planning and public policies, cyber security, and the participation of citizens had a significant level above 5% and were excluded from the calculations. Also, the remaining 10 factors were investigated using the fuzzy DEMATEL technique. DEMATEL’s technique evaluates factors from the point of view of Influencing and Affectability. According to the findings of Fuzzy DEMATEL and the net effect index, the factors of high-speed internet (5G technology), research and development, big data, artificial intelligence, and green Internet of things had the highest effect. 

The results of this research show that high-speed Internet (5G technology) is the most influential factor in the future of sustainable smart cities. Using 5G technology increases the speed of users’ access to a large amount of data and reduces its time. The Internet of Things can benefit from 5G technology to manage energy consumption in a sustainable smart city. Therefore, 5G technology can respond well to the needs of a sustainable smart city to manage energy consumption. Research and development is ranked second in terms of influencing the future of sustainable smart cities. Research and development by attracting investment and innovation in products and services and producing advanced technologies leads to knowledge-based activities and as a result, being a pioneer in the field of sustainable policies. Therefore, it is possible to take a big step in this direction by supporting the collaboration between academia and industry as well as new technology-based firms (NTBFs). Big data is ranked third in terms of influencing the future of sustainable smart cities. Determining useful information is very important in data-driven smart city development projects because identifying information to provide to customers is directly related to the value and attractiveness of a service. Artificial intelligence is ranked fourth in terms of influencing the future of sustainable smart cities. Artificial intelligence helps to manage energy production and consumption in changing environments and markets. The integration of artificial intelligence with 5G networks and sensor networks can create a new field for next-generation smart city services. The Internet of Green Things and its application has the fifth rank in terms of influencing the future of sustainable smart cities. Internet of Things technologies bring many challenges such as increasing energy consumption as well as electronic waste in smart cities. Smart city programs must be compatible with the environment, hence smart cities should move towards green IoT. The analysis of these key factors helps the decisions of managers, policymakers, and urban planners to invest and provide the necessary infrastructure of a smart city for optimal energy management.

Our focus in this research is on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT). These two technologies are rapidly expanding and fundamentally changing various aspects related to education. The aim of this study is to identify a scenarios of developing an education based on a proper understanding of changes in the process of technological development at the international level.

The methodology of this study is mixed exploratory. In this way, in the first step, the drivers were identified by the qualitative method of literature review, and in the second step, they were confirmed by the quantitative method of the binomial test, then in the third step, the drivers were analyzed using the DEMATEL method. Finally, after identifying the key uncertainties, using the method of Cross-Impact Balances, The scenarios were extracted and then writing. the theoretical community in the second to fourth steps of the research consists of 20 experts through purposive sampling who are knowledgeable about the research topic.

Ultimately, we identified 16 influential drivers and based on their impact states, which shape the future, we developed three distinct scenarios.

Our findings emphasize that AI research significantly impacts the educational structure. Important aspects of AI growth on education include a strong private education industry and increasing international interest. This study provides an enlightening research guideline for the future, helping researchers in identifying contemporary research issues and developing impactful research to address complex social problems, leveraging AI.

This research has been done with the aim of developing Iran's banking scenarios with an emphasis on big data. The current research is practical in terms of orientation and exploratory in terms of the goal. It is also mixed in terms of its philosophical, pragmatic and methodological foundations. To carry out the research in the first stage, 20 key drivers of the research were extracted through literature review and interviews with banking and technology experts. After screening with the fuzzy Delphi method, 8 factors were removed and the rest were evaluated with the Marcus decision making technique. The findings of the research show that the two factors of "technology regulation" and "technology transfer costs" were chosen as key uncertainties for developing research scenarios. Based on these two key uncertainties, four scenarios were developed based on interviews with the focus group with the titles of comprehensive banking, static banking, searching banking, wandering banking. In the comprehensive banking scenario, everything is in its optimal state; Technology transfer costs have decreased and regulators are supportive of the technologies. According to the findings of the research, considering drivers, key uncertainties and alternative scenarios by managers and decision makers can improve the performance and increase the competitive advantage of banks.

Financial innovations has been challenged the banking sector and can improve it. They cover a variety of financial businesses such as online lending, asset management platforms, trading management, mobile payment platforms, etc. All these services generate a large amount of data every day (Hasan et al, 2020: 1). Analyzing this volume of data is difficult, giving rise to the concept of "big data" (Munawar et al, 2020: 2). Big data as one of the important fields of future technology has attracted the attention of various industries (Raguseo & Vitari, 2018: 5206). In general, big data refers to a large volume of structured or unstructured data that is generated and stored at a high speed (Dicuonzo et al, 2019: 41). Big data has found its position in the banking industry; Because of the useful data they have stored in recent years (Rakhman et al, 2019: 1632). Recent applications of big data in banking have been for improving customer relationship management, marketing, optimizing strategic management and human resources (Parmar, 2018: 33; Hassani et al, 2018: 2). Therefore, it can be said that nowadays big data plays a major role in providing financial and banking services, and the realization of its potential benefits in banking is more from technical aspects and affects the organizational structure of banking and mobilizes a large number of different actors (Diniz et al, 2018: 151- 152). With changes in customer expectations and increased competition, the banking industry is no longer able to ignore technological innovations in the banking sector. Due to the numerous applications and benefits of big data in various industries, including the banking industry, and it's becoming more widespread in the future, this technology is becoming a prominent research topic (Phan & Tran, 2022: 6.)

What are the plausible scenarios for banking in Iran with an emphasis on big data?

Many studies conducted in the field of banking and big data deal with the role of big data in improving the performance of the banking industry (for instance: Shakya & Smys, 2021; Gonsalves & Jadhav, 2020; Hung et al, 2020; Parmar, 2018). Also, another part of the studies conducted with a future research approach in the banking sector without focusing on innovative financial technologies and specifically big data (for instance: Baumgartner & Peter, 2022; Eskandari et al,2020). The focus on innovative banking and financial technologies with a Futures Studies approach has been weak (for instance: Maja & Letaba, 2022; Murinde et al, 2022; Hajiheydari et al, 2021; Broby, 2021; Harris & Wonglimpiyarat, 2019). And the role of big data in the Futures Studies of the banking industry has been seen to be very limited due to the relatively large amount of data available in banks and its effect on performance and gaining a competitive advantage (for instance: Valero et al, 2020). Therefore, despite the studies conducted in the field of banking and big data, some of these researches have paid attention to the present time, and the researches conducted in the future of the banking industry have also been without focusing on the role of big data. Now, the most important theoretical gap in research is the lack of studies on the future of banking in Iran with an emphasis on big data.

The current research is pragmatism due to the use of qualitative and quantitative methods from the perspective of philosophical foundations. It is also exploratory in terms of purpose due to the identification of drivers and practical in terms of direction due to the application of the results in the analysis of the future of banking in Iran. In the current research, two methods of literature review and interviews with experts are used to identify drivers, both of which are qualitative methods. According to Popper, the interview tool is based on the expert dimension. The literature review is evidence-based and uses articles and scientific texts to identify factors. Fuzzy Delphi, which is semi-quantitative and evidence-based, is used to screen and determine key drivers that require great accuracy. Then, to determine the key uncertainties, the MARCOS technique is used based on the importance and uncertainty indicators of the Global Business Network (GBN) approach, which is a quantitative and evidence-based technique. Finally, interviews with focus groups are used to write the scenario, which is a qualitative method based on the expert dimension. The theoretical community of the research includes academic experts and managers of the banking sector and are aware of new banking and financial technologies (Fintechs) and specifically big data. The selection of the participants is based on their knowledge and nobility of the research topic and the importance of their presence in the research, and finally 15 people were selected by purposeful sampling using the snowball method. Experts have at least 10 years of relevant work experience and a master's degree.

This research has clarified the situation of this area by identifying the shaping factors and drivers of the future of banking in Iran. Two factors of "technology regulation" and "technology transfer costs" were chosen as key uncertainties for developing research scenarios. Based on these two key uncertainties, four scenarios were developed based on interviews with the focus group with the titles of comprehensive banking, static banking, searching banking, wandering banking. In the comprehensive banking scenario, everything is in its optimal state; Technology transfer costs have decreased and regulators are supportive of the technologies. Considering drivers, key uncertainties and alternative scenarios by managers and decision makers can improve the performance and increase the competitive advantage of banks.

Due to the constant changes, continuous dynamics and environmental instability of the economic environment in Iran, analysis, control of drivers and foresight based on it has become more and more necessary. Therefore, the present study seeks to identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the future of the Iranian economy in order to realize forward-looking strategic document of the second step of the Supreme Leader's revolution. The present study is descriptive in terms of purpose and survey in terms of research strategies. For conducting research, the method combined with the dominant sequential exploration strategy has been used. First, the drivers were identified qualitatively and with the help of expert opinions, and were classified according to the EPISTELU model, which is a more complete model of environmental analysis, into eight groups: economic, political, institutional, social, technological, legal, academic and environmental. Then, using the fuzzy Delphi method, first the experts' opinions were collected through the distribution of a questionnaire and the drivers were prioritized. Then, by drawing the scatter diagram based on the two axes of uncertainty and impact, the main drivers were selected. The findings of the present study show that exchange rates, political stability, inflation control, oil and economic sanctions on Iran, economic corruption; Digital economy, e-government, productivity and knowledge-based industries, youth unemployment, and participation and social capital are the10 key drivers of the future of Iran's economy. Finally, based on the research findings, policy proposals for the Iranian economy are presented.

The excessive consumption of natural resources, the growing trend of environmental pollution and efforts to improve the quality of life in different dimensions have led to providing new solutions to solve the challenges of future cities. In this direction, the creation of smart cities has attracted the attention of academics and urban planners, mainly in the framework of urban development policies. Therefore, the main goal of current article is to introduce the scenarios resulting from the smartening process with an emphasis on the city of Qazvin. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection and analysis method. In order to collect information in the field of theoretical foundations, the documentary method was used, and the field method was used to collect data in order to analyze and answer the main research question. According to the findings of this research, 16 drivers were identified using the Delphi method; And after examining the extent and how these drivers affect each other, four key uncertainties of Qazvin city's smartening were identified. Considering the different states of four key uncertainties of sustainable management, new technologies, development of social innovation, international economy; And by using the CIB method through the Scenario Wizard software, three alternative scenarios were obtained for the future of Qazvin city in the direction of smartening that first scenario is the desirable scenario of smartening Qazvin city. According to the research results in Qazvin smart city policy making, In order to succeed as much as possible in the field of smartening Qazvin city, international technology-based companies (NTBFs) should be considered; Because we can find the actuality of the four uncertainties of sustainable management, new technologies, development of social innovation, and international economy in these companies.

Low mobility in society and among employees is a major public health challenge. Most employees spend many hours at work during the week and are sedentary. In the same framework, this study was conducted with the aim of identifying drivers and writing scenarios of sports activity of employees in the time horizon of the next ten years in 1401.

This research is Exploratory mixed due to the use of qualitative and quantitative methods. To identify the Factors, two methods of research literature review and then structured interviews with experts were used. To screen Factors and Identification of drivers the fuzzy Delphi method and to determine key uncertainties the Marcos technique; and finally, the focus group method was used to write the scenario. The theoretical community of the research includes the sports science experts of the university who are aware of futures studies topics, and finally 15 people were selected by purposeful sampling.

According to the findings, 23 drivers are influential in the future of sports activities of employees. Also, based on the two key uncertainties, scenarios with the titles of agile and dynamic organization, static and stationary organization, searcher organization and unstable organization were written which shows the scenario of the agile and dynamic organization of the best possible future.

These findings can be used for strategies and training programs related to sports activity and employee health, and as a result, it can potentially increase the effectiveness and efficiency in the organization.

Today, innovation, performance improvement and maintaining competitive advantage are the main goals of knowledge-based companies and management innovation can play a significant role in achieving these goals. In this context, the purpose of this study is to achieve different mental patterns of managers towards management innovation in knowledge-based companies and to identify key factors resulting from the explanation of these mental patterns. This research is paradigmatic, interpretive and positivist and based on the purpose of applied research, According to the purpose of the present study, the combined Q method was used to perform it. The participants of this research are managers in knowledge-based companies and their selection was based on their expertise and close relationship with the research topic. Thus, 20 managers with the mentioned characteristics were selected in order to sort the Q ranking table through purposive sampling, which is expected to have more diverse mindsets. In the next step, after sorting the factors in the form of Q cards on the Q ranking table, the obtained data were processed and analyzed by SPSS software. The results of this study show six different subjective patterns resulting from scoring participants' Q options, which Accordingly 27 factors include; Organizational Strategy, Employee Ability, Higher Education Workforce, Partnership, Information and Communication Technology Systems, Market Focus, Community Wealth, Senior Management Commitment, Managerial Education, Transformational Leadership, Tireless Leadership, Formalization, Organizational Policy, Knowledge Management, Organizational learning, absorption capacity, perceptibility, innovative culture, human resources, competitive pressure, rapid technological change, environmental dynamics, government effectiveness, senior management participation, managers 'attitudes toward innovation, managers' personality traits and strategic leadership. are the result of explaining these mental patterns.

A system of effective internal controls is a foundation for the safe and sound operation of banks and helps management to safeguard bank's resources and interests. Since improving performance of internal control system requires recognizing its current status, in this study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the current status of establishment of internal control system in Iranian banks. For this purpose, through the designed questionnaire, experts have been asked to evaluate the current status of effective indicators in establishing internal control system of banks, taking into account the importance of these indicators. Received answers were analyzed using fuzzy delphi method, fuzzy gap analysis, importance-performance analysis and paired sample test. According to experts, the current status of all effective indicators in the establishment of the internal control system of banks was assessed as unfavorable. Findings from fuzzy gap analysis also indicate that except for 3 indicators, there is a significant gap between the current status (what is) and the desired status (what should be) of indicators. Also, according to the findings of importance-performance analysis, out of 119 indicators studied, 113 indicators do not have acceptable performance despite their high importance. In addition, based on the results of the paired sample test, it can be concluded that there is a significant gap between current status and desired status of effective indicators in establishing the five dimensions of the internal control system of banks: control environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication and monitoring activities.

The system of internal controls is the main foundation of banks' governance system and is established to guide and supervise banking activities in order to achieve their goals and transparency and accountability. Despite the importance and necessity of the effective functioning of the internal control system in banks, no research has been conducted to identify its weaknesses in Iran. Accordingly, considering the consequences that the weaknesses of the internal control system can have for the banking system, this study, aims to identify the weaknesses of the internal control system of Iranian banks. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, first, the operational audit reports of banks were reviewed. Experts were then interviewed to identify other weaknesses in the banks' internal control system. Finally, the experts' opinions about the weaknesses were collected through a questionnaire and their consensus on each of the weaknesses was examined using the fuzzy Delphi method. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of clustering in this study. Based on the results of reviewing banks' operational audit reports and interviewing experts, a total of 64 weaknesses were identified. The findings indicate that 60 of the identified weaknesses gained a general consensus in favor of the Delphi group, and by factor analysis, the accuracy of the clustering of items was confirmed. The findings of this study can help to identify the current situation and plan to address the weaknesses of the internal control system of Iranian banks.

Security is the first and most important human need in society and has a prominent place in the prosperity of a society. Therefore, achieving sustainable public security is always a very important necessity and requires the identification of relevant trends and scenarios. The purpose of this study is to identify the security trends and scenarios of Iranian society on the horizon of 1424. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection and analysis method. The statistical population of the study consists of 12 experts in police. Library studies and field methods were used to collect information. To analyze the data collected of Cross-impact analysis was used using MICMAC software application. According to the findings of this study, 42 trends were identified in six general categories of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value trends. Then, According three key uncertainties, four scenarios were created with the titles of insecurity, sustainable security, semi-sustainable security, unstable security, which Sustainable security scenario, is a favorable scenario for the general security of Iranian society.

One of the possible reasons for the weakness of the internal control system of banks can be considered as the lack of a pattern for the establishment of this system. The purpose of this study is to identify the effective indicators in establishing the internal control system of banks and to introduce the effective indicators according to the contextual characteristics of Iranian banks.

In order to achieve the objectives of the research, first, by reviewing the literature, effective indicators in establishing the system of internal controls in banks were identified. In the next stage, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts in order to consider other factors affecting the research subject according to their experiences and unique context of the Iranian banks. Then, using a questionnaire and fuzzy delphi method, these factors were screened by experts’ opinions. Finally, confirmatory factor analysis test was used to determine the factor loading of the indicators.

The research findings indicate that out of 119 indicators identified as effective indicators in establishing the internal control system of Iranian banks, 113 indicators has obtained the general consensus of the delphi group and by conducting factor analysis, it was determined that all these 113 indicators were of sufficient importance.

Banks will be able to assess the current status of the internal control system by the indicators introduced in this study and ensure the effective functioning of the internal control system.

 Findings of this study can help to identify the indicators affecting the establishment of the internal control system of Iranian banks according to the contextual characteristics of the country and identify the necessary steps to improve the effectiveness of the internal control system in banks.

As crimes become more complex and the need to investigate and detect crimes quickly in order to arrest criminals, which reduces crime and increases security in society, it is important to pay attention to criminalization; Therefore, this study was conducted with the aim of identifying strategic factors affecting crime detection. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection and analysis method. The statistical population of this research consists of 12 experts and criminologists. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. In this study, first, the final factors were identified using the fuzzy Delphi method, and in the next stage, the matrix of cross-effects was designed to measure the impact of factors on each other and identify strategic factors affecting crime detection and provided to experts. Due to the nature of this study, Excel and Mick Mac software were used to analyze the collected data. The findings of this study showed that the factors affecting crime detection in 33 factors and three groups include human, organizational and technological factors; Among these 33 factors, 17 factors were identified as strategic factors affecting crime detection. The results of this study show that in crime detection, teamwork, analysis of crime information, existence of databases of convicted criminals and its field of activity, having technical and laboratory equipment equipped to extract evidence of crime, etc. should be in order to be as successful as possible. To be considered in this regard.

The characteristics of the cyber environment and, as a result, the increasing complexity of cybercrime have made the detection of these crimes time consuming and costly, therefore, it is very important to pay attention to the prevention of cybercrime. The purpose of this study is to determine the strategic factors affecting the prevention of cybercrime.

In terms of its objectives this study is of an applied research type and in terms of the nature it is considered as a descriptive-survey study. The statistical population of this study consists of 15 I. R. I. Cyber-Police experts. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient method with a value of 0.89 and the validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by content method. Also, using fuzzy Delphi method, the data was collected from the experts in two stages and the most key ones were selected. Due to the nature of this research, fuzzy Delphi method and Excel and SPSS software were used to analyze the collected data.

The findings of this study showed that the most important strategic factors affecting the prevention of cybercrime are 31 factors and 7 groups, including cultural factors, social factors, technical factors, positive factors, negative factors, internal, and external factors.

According to the results of research, culture and media production, family awareness, use of security tools by users, having specialized and trained personnel are among the effective and role-playing factors in the prevention of cybercrime that should be taken into considerations in the design and selection of appropriate strategic planning

The characteristics of the cyber environment, such as not being dependent on a specific time and place, the possibility of acquiring different identities, anonymity and ease of performing various actions, have created a favorable environment for the emergence of cybercrime. The basic information police approach can play a role in cybercrime by managing resources, increasing the speed and accuracy of police operations, and increasing public trust. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the effect of basic information police on cybercrime.

The method of the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive survey in terms of implementation method. The statistical population of this research consists of 65 experts and specialists of FATA NAJA police who were selected in full. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire whose reliability was confirmed by calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient and its validity was confirmed by content method. One-sample t-test was used to analyze the data and answer the research questions.

Findings of this study showed that basic information police has a positive effect on cybercrime, which was examined and confirmed in four dimensions of basic information police human resources, internal information resources, external information resources and information technology and cyberspace of basic information police.

In order to be as successful as possible in a cybercrime mission, it is essential to pay attention to human resources, intra-organizational information resources, extra-organizational information resources, and information technology and cyberspace information base.

Nowadays, inhaled corticosteroids have become the core of therapy for patients with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Fluticasone propionate (FP) is among the most lipophilic steroids (water solubility ~ 0.1 mg/ml) and its clinical efficacy has been confirmed in many studies. The inclusion of different carrier materials in a dry powder inhaler (DPI) system can alter formulation performance, which might be attributable to variation in the adhesion between drug and carrier particles.
To this aim, we used two different carriers to be mixed in different times with drug on the one hand to facilitate the powder flow during manufacturing, and on the other hand to help fluidization upon patient inhalation. The prepared DPI formulations were examined in terms of drug content uniformity upon the physical blending, particle shape, and in vitro pulmonary deposition. The latter was determined using an Andersen cascade impactor and Cyclohaler® as a single-dose DPI.
Our results revealed that the highest fine particle fraction (FPF) and fine particle dose (FPD) value belonged to the formulation contained FP: mannitol, mixed in 30 minutes.
It can be concluded that using mannitol as the coarse carrier can improve the physical properties as well as the aerosolization behavior of the resultant DPI formulations.

This paper takes fundamental analysis research beyond the spatial and temporal bounds of previous studies. It was investigated that how detailed financial statement data enter the decisions of market makers by examining how current changes in the fundamental signals chosen can provide information on subsequent earnings changes. Using Tehran Stock Exchange’s firms data from 2003 to 2012, the role of fundamental signals for prediction of future earnings changes was tested. In addition, the influence of contextual factors including prior earnings news and macroeconomic variables (GDP growth and inflation) on the relationship between fundamental signals and future earnings changes was investigated. Results indicate that the fundamental signals are significant predictors of short-term but not long-term future earnings changes. Moreover, prior earnings news doesn’t affect earnings predictability, but this predictability is significantly higher in lower GDP and higher inflation periods. In addition to corroborating prior research with fundamental analysis, this research adds to what has previously been conducted and extends investigations with examination of the predictive link between the fundamental signals and future earnings change by introducing prior earnings news and macroeconomic conditions as contextual factors in order to look for a possible effect which has not been investigated in prior research.

Prolificacy trait of Iran black was compared with Baluchi and Arman sheep breeds and the environmental factors affecting the trait were studied. Furthermore, estimation of genetic parameters and evaluation of the genetic trend of the Iran black breed for the prolificacy and average birth weight of the lambs per lambing (as a trait for the ewes) were carried out using bivariate (linear-threshold) repeatability model. Total recorded animals was 2,701 (offspring of 110 sire and 840 dam) and the data were collected during 1980-2009 by Abbas Abad breeding station that located in Mashhad, Iran. Lambing rate was significantly higher in Iran black and Arman breeds than in Baluchi breed (P<0.01). Lambing rate decreased with aging of the ewes, such that, ewes older than 8 years old showed the lowest prolificacy. Ewes with age between 2 to 6 years did not differ to each other significantly. Heritability of average birth weight of the lambs and prolificacy were 0.148 and 0.266, respectively. Repeatability estimates of the traits were 0.674 and 0.381, respectively. Phenotypic, environmental and genetic correlations among the traits were highly negative and were -0.484, -0.369 and -0.968, respectively. The genetic trend for the prolificacy trait was ascending until year 1996 (0.016 lamb/year) and descended afterwards (-0.012 lamb/year). Genetic trend for average birth weight of the lambs were opposite in direction with genetic trend of prolificacy in both periods. It seems that lack of a sustainable breeding strategy for genetic improvement of Iran Black breed for prolificacy and other economically important traits has resulted in a non-constant genetic progress during the past years.

Drought stress is one of the important factors limiting crop production. Increasing the water use efficiency is a strategy for enhancing the crop production. In order to study effects of superabsorbent on wheat’s growth in dryland, an experiment was conducted in research farm of agriculture Faculty of Zanjan University in 2010-2011. This experiment was conducted based on a random complete blocks design included four treatments of (0, 15, 30 and 45 kg Clophony superabsorbent per hectare with four replications. In this experiment Azar2 cultivar was used. The result of experiment showed that application of superabsorbent increased absorbing water by the plant and of relative water content which is causing the source strength by increased leaf area index and Chlorophyll index. Also, super absorbents’ application cased to increasing in the yield components including the number of fertile spike, the number of grain in spike and the grain weight which has finally led to the increase of grain yield. The grain yield increased in a linear trend with the raise of superabsorbent’s application and the maximum grain yield (2718 Kg/ha) was obtained using 45kg in hectare of Clophony superabsorbent. The results was showed that this treatment increase grain yield 156.5 percentage. In general could say that the application of super absorbent material in dryland condition could increase the grain yield by decreasing the drought stress affects and increasing the source and sink strength.

In the fundamental analysis، it is claimed that an increase in the ratio of selling، general، and administrative costs to sales (SG&A) represents management inefficiency in controlling costs and could be interpreted as negative signal about future profitability. This ignores some important aspects of SG&A cost behavior since both unchanged and sticky costs may cause the ratio of SG&A costs to sales increase. In this case، an increase in the SG&A cost ratio may actually convey positive information about managers’ expectations about future earnings. In this research، the impact of cost behavior on the relationship between future profitability and SG&A ratio was examined، using a sample of 137 firms during 1380 to 1389. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between future earnings and SG&A cost ratio in sales-increasing periods. But، inconsistent with traditional interpretation of SG&A cost changes، future earnings are positively related to changes in the SG&A cost ratio in the periods in which sales decline، and that the higher the SG&A cost ratio، the stronger the positive relationship between future earnings and SG&A cost ratio. Also، it was found that after eliminating the impact of cost behavior، the increase in SG&A cost ratio causes increase in the future earnings in both revenue-increasing and revenue-decreasing periods.

According to cost accounting، there is a symmetric relation between costs and activity volume. But recent research revealed that costs decrease less when activity falls than they increase when activity rises. This asymmetric cost behavior is termed as “cost stickiness”. In this research، reversal of cost stickiness in subsequent period، observation period، continuous sales decline، GDP growth، assets and number of employees are considered as probable determinant factors on cost stickiness and the impact of these factors is examined on the stickiness of cost of goods sold and sales، general and administrative costs. According to the results، stickiness of sales، general and administrative costs is reversed in subsequent period and if sales decrease for two years، the stickiness of cost of goods sold and sales، general and administrative costs decreases in second year and stickiness of both cost of goods sold and sales، general and administrative costs is increased when assets increases. Finally there was no evidence about the impact of observation period، GDP growth and number of employees on the cost stickiness.

Recent research on cost behavior has revealed that the magnitude of decrease in costs associated with decrease in sales is lower than the magnitude of the increase in costs associated with an equivalent increase in sales. This asymmetric cost behavior is termed as “cost stickiness.” One of the hypotheses on costs stickiness explains it as a result of the deliberate decisions of managers. In this paper, sales forecasts issued by managers are used as a proxy for managers’ prospect of future sales and the deliberate decision hypothesis was examined empirically among 186 firms during 1380 to 1388. Findings show that the prospect of increase in future sales decreases cost stickiness in the case of cost of goods sold and this stickiness is also decreased more when managers are more optimistic about future sales. It was also found that stickiness of sales, general and administrative costs is increased when managers are optimistic about future sales and this stickiness is more when managers are more optimistic.

An increase in the ratio of sales, general and administrative costs to sales (SG&A ratio) is associated with contradictory interpretations, namely a negative one due to deficient cost control and a positive one derived primarily from investments for improvement of operational processes. Based on these conflicting explanations, it is crucial to distinguish between whether an increase in the ratio of SG&A costs to sales is actually intended by management in order to enhance future profitability or it is because of deficient cost control. These explanations were investigated in this research. So the impact of cost efficiency on the relation between SG&A ratio and future performance is examined among 150 firms during 1380 to 1389. Findings show that intended increases significantly enhance future operating income and future sales, but non-intended increases in this ratio, decreases future operating income. Moreover, increases in SG&A ratio, cause decreases in future SG&A expenses in both efficient and inefficient firms, but dosen’t have a significant impact on future cost of goods sold (COGS). To study in more details, the SG&A efficiency and COGS efficiency were used in model at the same time and findings show that the impact of SG&A ratio on future operating income is significantly positive only if SG&A efficiency exists and also there is ample latitude for reduction of COGS. Because only in this way, SG&A costs represent investments in improving manufacturing efficiency.