فهرست مطالب شعله باقری پرمهر

The purpose of this study was to provide an indicator to estimate the probability of primary school children being exposed to school dropout based on the probit regression model and using the information of 8678 school dropouts and the same number of children in school. These variables can be divided into three categories: economic variables, non-economic variables and environmental variables. The estimation results showed that the signs of the coefficients of the variables are in accordance with theoretical and experimental expectations. For example, increasing the age of the child caregiver, the family size, or the fact that the child caregiver is a woman increases the chances of the child being left out of school. In the section on economic variables, the results show that the low monthly purchase rate, the low household income decile and the lack of a fixed income by the head of the household will also increase this probability. The results of the model estimate also showed that households covered by support institutions will have a lower chance of the child dropping out of school, which indicates the role of support institutions in improving social indicators. In poorer and less developed provinces, the child has a better chance of surviving school. From the point of view of good fitting statistics, the results of the model with a power of 83% is able to distinguish a child who is dropping out of school from a child who is not about to drop out of school.

The transportation sector includes activities that are widely effective in the processes of production distribution and consumption of goods and services. so, it plays a fundamental role in the economic growth of countries. However, investment in transportation infrastructure despite the positive effects, may not have maximum effects on growth in developing countries due to mismanagement and lack of proper strategy and plan in infrastructure development. As a result, considering the nature of investment in the transportation sectorm this sector and the growth of the national GDP from different dimensions and angles becomes more important. The current research has investigated this issue based on a "vector error correction model" and its estimation in the period from 1373 to 1399. the relationships of the variables used in this model can be specified in the form of three correlation relationships. These three relationships can be examined under the three relationships explaining real GDP, real exchange rate and real investment in the transportation sector, which respectively describe the behavior of the real sector of the economy, the behavior of the currency market and the behavior of investment in the transportation sector. According to the obtained results, the variable of investment in the transportation sector has an effect on the production variable in the long term, and the extent of this influence is such that each one percent increase in the real investment in the transportation sector can be 0.09 percent in growth Iran's economy will be effective.

Financial institutions, including banks, are considered as the vital element of an economic system. Therefore, banks play a vital role in the economy of a country. On the other hand, economic sanctions cause problems in banking and other economic sectors of the country. Financial health and profitability of banks are among the factors that have been affected by economic sanctions. Economic sanctions can affect the financial health and profitability of banks in different ways. Therefore, in this research, the effect of economic sanctions on the relationship between the banking health index and the profitability of banks during the time period of 1390-1400 has been investigated with the panel data regression method. In addition, in this research, the effect of some macroeconomic changes such as economic growth rate, inflation rate, and liquidity on banks' profitability have been investigated. The findings revealed that sanctions had a negative and significant effect on the relationship between the banking health index and banks' profitability. Another important finding is that the macroeconomic variables used in the research, except for the liquidity variable, which had no significant effect on banks' profitability, had a positive and significant effect on banks' profitability.

Keeping the unemployment rate low is one of the main axes of fiscal policy, labour market and monetary policy. Unemployment also has implications for the outlook for wage growth, inflation and GDP. Therefore, achieving a level of unemployment where inflation is slow is one of the important and key goals of economic policy makers.This article examines the hypothesis that NAIRU rate has been rising in recent years and whether efforts to simply keep unemployment low and policies to reduce unemployment have led to recession and hysteria. For this study, using the model of temporal changes in the form of space-state model and white the help of inflation, expected inflation, unemployment rate and productivity during the years 1997-2021, the NAIRU rate for the Iranian economy was estimated. The results indicate that the NAIRU rate has experienced a downward trend over the years under review. The average NAIRU estimate for the years under review was 11.6 percent.

The growth of banks may pose problems to banks in terms of balance sheet. therefore, bank size could be one of the most effective banking variables affecting the performance of the branches of the banking system. the variables of bank size and their mutual relations with banking system effectiveness have always been considered in the majority of theoretical studies related to the banking system. the banking industry plays an important role in the economic growth of societies. On the other hand, the bank is an economic firm and the aim of each economic firm is to earn a profit, which is important in providing more and better banking facilities, so the banks are always thinking of providing more facilities and want financial resources to be directed towards full - profit goals. It is possible to say that banks are private enterprise - based enterprises, as the system of payments and intermediary is necessary for the economic growth of the community. therefore, the study of the optimal size of the banking sector with regard to its effectiveness on the country's economic growth is of particular importance in this paper.

In this study, in order to investigate the effect of bank system size on the interaction between banking system performance and economic growth of Iran from chapter 1, 1385 until the end of 1398. in order to estimate the model of economic growth in Iran, by considering the size of the banking system, the STR model will be used in time series patterns. The standard shape of the STR is given as follows.In that, y_t is the endogenous variable, x_t is the exogenous variable, π and θ are the parameter vectors, and STR is the transition variable, the changes of which change the coefficient of the estimator variables. The transition variable can be an endogenous variable or one of the endogenous variables, or even a third variable outside the model. The function F (St, γ, c) is also called the transition function whose value can be between 0 and 1. Accordingly, the coefficients of the STR will fluctuate between the π and θ + π values. In the transition function (which is a bounded function in terms of the transition variable of the STR), γ and c are also the slope parameter and the location parameter, respectively. The slope parameter determines the transfer rate between the two regimes and the location parameter is also the determinant of the threshold between the two regimes.

In the linear part, the average performance of the banking system with a coefficient of 0.79 has a positive and significant effect on Iran's economic growth, and in the nonlinear sector, this index with an average coefficient of 1.02 has a negative and significant effect on Iran's GDP growth. in fact, based on the results of the model, the impact of the banking sector performance on economic growth during the period of study was not static and was influenced by the size of the banking system. The number of POS and ATM with a coefficient of 0.39 and 0.27, respectively, have a positive and significant effect on the growth of Iran's GDP, which can be analyzed as follows; Applying new financial methods of electronic banking in developing countries and Iran, can be a fundamental and important factor for the country's rapid access to higher stages of development. Unemployment rate with a coefficient of 0.66 has a negative and significant effect on the growth of Iran's GDP. overdue claims with a coefficient of 0.01 have a negative and significant effect on the growth of Iran's GDP. The impact factor of the banking system performance on GDP is such that in the early years of the study, the impact of the banking sector performance on economic growth has an upward trend, so that from a negative impact has entered the range of positive impact, but finally this positive coefficient from the fourth quarter 2010 has a declining trend. In fact, the excessive size of the bank has had an adverse effect on the performance of the banking system and economic growth, so that in the early 2011, this effect has entered a negative range. Therefore, the optimal size of the banking system was experienced in 2009.

The aim of this study is investigating the optimal size of the banking sector with regard to its effectiveness and its impact on the country economic growth. In fact, based on existing theoretical foundations and previous empirical studies, the question was examined whether the effectiveness of banks on Iran's economic growth will change due to the change in the size of the banking system. The results of this study showed that the impact of banking sector performance on Iran's economic growth during the years under review did not have a fixed trend in the form of an inverted bell diagram, meaning that in the early period of the study with increasing banking system size, banking sector impact on economic growth trend There has been an increase, but since the late 2009, this effect has decreased. So the answer to the above question is yes. Other achievements of the model are confirmation of the positive effect of POS and bank ATM and the negative effect of unemployment rate and bank deferred claims on Iran's economic growth. According to the results, the size of the banking system has already exceeded its optimal extent and has even entered the negative impact on economic growth. Evidence of banks shifting from their original nature as a financial intermediary as well as the profitability of the banking system even during the recession of the last decade shows that the link between the banking sector and the real sector of the economy has weakened, and the excessive presence of banks in other financial markets and their disproportionate corporate governance has damaged the structure of the economy.

This article examines factors that affect the Real Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate and determines the degree of deviation of the informal market exchange rate from it. For this study, a Dynamic Ordinary Least Square Model is applied for the period of 1369Q:1-1399Q:4. According to the research findings, increasing net ratio of foreign assets of the central bank to production, productivity and also the ratio of trade surplus to production, lead to a decrease in the real Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate and increasing ratio of expenditures government to production leads to an increase in it. Also, calculations show that since 1397, the upward trend of the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate has started and since then until the end of 1399, the currency deviation in the country has always been positive. One of the most critical seasons in this period was the third quarter of 1399, in which the currency deviation has exceeded 32%. According to the forecasts made based on the estimated model, with the scenario of the continuation of the current situation, the equilibrium exchange rate of the summer of 1400 has been estimated at more than 25 thousand Tomans.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the overall level of voluntary compliance of information disclosure in the management commentary of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, according to the requirements of IFRS’s professional statement of 2010 and to investigate the relationship between company characteristics and the overall level of information disclosure in management commentary. For this purpose, the information of 310 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for 2020 was examined. In this study, we used a checklist to examine the compliance with the IFRS’s professional statement in companies and used multiple regression to analyze the hypotheses. The analysis results indicate that the rate of compliance with the IFRS’s professional statement in companies in Iran is in the range of 12% to 100%, with an average of 42.8%. Analysis indicates that companies disclose more financial information than non-financial information in management commentary. Also, the analysis of hypotheses shows that among the characteristics of companies, the age of companies has no effect on the level of information disclosure in management commentary.

The relationship between exchange rate changes and trade balance has always been one of the major issues in theoretical literature and policy circles. A new approach to theoretical literature and empirical work suggest that the interaction of these two variables depends on a number of issues, including how each country's export and import markets interact, and the degree to which exports of goods are dependent on imports. For this purpose, in the paper, the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in the Iranian economy is examined by considering the crucial role of Intra –industry trade in the form of smooth transition regression model for the period 2001: 4 to 2018: 4. The results showed that the coefficient of effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance in each period is affected by the intra--industry index, so that the lower the index, the less the effect of the exchange rate increase on the trade balance, and as this index improves, the impact is greater. This means that the positive effects of money devaluation on the trade balance can be benefited when the competitiveness of domestic products with similar foreign goods in each sector increases.

The issue of the budget deficit and its aggregation in the form of debt accumulation has always been a concern in scientific and policy circles. The accumulation of government debt can affect investment and thus economic growth, and this effect can vary in different economic conditions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government debt and private sector investment with emphasis on the effect of debt accumulation in this regard. The results of this model show that, firstly, the relationship between government debt and private sector investment is negative, and secondly, as government debt increases, the impact of government debt on private sector investment decreases. Therefore, enlarging the government at the expense of increasing borrowing cannot have a positive effect on the activities of the private sector. Also, the impact factor of inflation and oil revenues on private sector investment is negative and positive, respectively, and the impact factor of both is significant. In addition, all good fit tests in the model were examined. The results of the studies showed that the model is reliable in terms of these tests.

In recent years, the growth of unemployment and the phenomenon of "jobless growth" has been a major problem in many countries, although the root of it can vary from country to country. The survey of Iran's economic data reveals that since the decade of the 1380s, changes employment has not been the same as economic growth for many years. Therefore, in this research, the hypothesis is examined whether the relationship between economic growth and employment in the Iranian economy is declining; in other words, can it be claimed that the Iranian economy is incapacitated by the economic difficulties of creating suffering takes for this study, using the time-varying model in the form of space-state model and clarifying the employment relationship with the help of explanatory variables of economic growth, active population, real wages, oil revenues and inflation, examined the phenomenon of jobless growth during the years 1357-1395 paid. During the model estimation, the amount and effect of explanatory variables on employment as well as the effect of economic growth on employment have been estimated. The results indicate that the relationship between economic growth and employment during the period under review was not constant and in the decade of 1390 the relationship between these two variables was negated.

The literature review of economic growth shows that the factors which are known as the growth engine do not have the same impact on countries with different socioeconomic structures. In this way, the different levels of institutional quality can be considered as the main determinants of exploiting of economic growth factors such as foreign direct investment (FDI). In order to evaluate the performance of institutions, there are several indicators. One of them is “good governance”. A good governance is known as an effective factor to develop the economic growth, improve the work environment and absorb domestic and foreign investment. “Good governance” indicator comprises six components: Voice & Accountability, Political stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, and Rule of Law & Control of corruption. Our main purpose in this study is to evaluate the effect of regulatory quality indictor as a representative of good governance on FDI in four different country groups classified by income Levels. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of the regulatory quality indictor on the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in four different country groups classified by income level is investigated. The panel smooth transition method over the period of 2002-2016 is applied. The result shows that: 1- There is a positive and significant relation between regulatory quality and economic growth. 2- The main hypothesis is confirmed in the Lower Middle income countries and Upper Middle income countries

An increase in life expectancy was due to scientific advances in the health sector, which began with the developed economies and quickly had repercussions in developing countries. From among the results of such development,  was an increase in population and changes in population age structure towards older ages. Population aging will have significant impact on macro-economic factors including income distribution.  This study evaluates the impact of the age structure on the income distribution, over the period of 1985 to 2015 in Iran. The “Gini coefficient decomposition” based on household expenditure (income) in urban and rural areas shows that; with increasing age of the head of the households, income inequality increases. Thus, even if other influential forces on inequality, such as inflation, economical recission, etc. are stopped,  the populations aging could be a potential factor for the future growth of inequality and poverty. Hence, for an economy which has an unequal pattern in income distribution, and experiencing a rapid population transition, the population ageing can be an important challenge in the policy making of economic growth.

It is logical that with industrial growth, the demand for labor will rise. Therefore, examining the employment potential of the industry can be helpful in policymaking. In this study, the relationship between employment and value added of industrial sector in Iran's economy during the years 1981-2017 was investigated using Time-Varying method and spatial-state model and the effect of value added on employment in all years was extracted. According to the results, added value and employment in the industrial sector have a negative relationship with each other, which means that there is condition of the jobless growth in the industrial sector in Iran. So that in 2017, employment will decrease by 1.14 percent, assuming the other variables remain constant, with a 1 percent increase in the real value added of the industrial sector. Wages and trade have also had a negative impact on employment in the industry over the years. The wage impact factor on employment in the industrial sector is -0.06 percent. Also for a dollar increase in industrial import value assuming other variables remain constant decline of 7.38×10-7 in industrial sector employment. According to the results, exports and employment have against effect on each other, such that, for a $ 1 increase in the value of exports of industrial goods in Iran, assuming the other variables are stable, employment is decease by 1.58×10-6. According to the findings of this study, foreign direct investment in industry has a positive and significant effect on employment in this sector.

Lack of reliable statistics relating to government debts in Iran's economy, not only has it influenced on the optimal management of resources and debt, but it has been one of the most important factors affecting the lack of theoretical and experimental literature in this field in Iranian economy; Somehow that he existence of extensive international literature in world, has led to very limited studies in Iran. In this study, the time series of government debt are calculated in four ways. Furthermore, this article has two ways to calculate the optimal ratio of government debt to gross domestic product, and then estimate financial space in Iran economy. In first way, without time series of government debts and based on a simple model this proportion was estimated at 15%. Despite the advantage of this method of not using the time series of debt due to the adoption of some assumptions that are inconsistent with the conditions of the Iranian economy, we cannot accept it easily. Therefore, the second method was investigated, in which first government debt series has been set up and then, using a smooth transition regression, the government's debt ratio was extracted which was 19 percent. Estimates performed in two ways, the highest government debt ratio has been experienced and the ratio of government debt that leads to negative economic growth, show that the government has a fiscal space to 30 or 32 percent of the government debt to GDP ratio.

Improving capital efficiency is one of the most effective methods for increasing the rate of economic growth and one of the factors affecting capital productivity is the rate of capital utilization. In this study, using the annual data of Iran's economy during the period of 1979-1959, and using the nonlinear model of soft transfer regression (STR), we investigated the effect of government capital stock on capital productivity in Iran. Initial tests confirming the nonlinear relation between the stock of government capital and the production and acceptance of the state capital stock as the transfer variable, in the first regime, when the stock of government capital is less than the threshold, the effect of this variable on negative production, and in the second regime, the amount of storage The capital of the state is more than the threshold; the accumulation of state capital has a more negative and significant effect on production. These results mean that the accumulation of government capital in Iran during the reviewed period has had a negative effect on the effectiveness of the stock of government capital on production (as an indicator of the productivity of government capital).

With the development of various theories and models in relation to economic growth over time, many researchers studied its effect on the growth and factors affecting its creation and absorption.
This article examines the role of education in the interaction between foreign direct investment and economic growth during the post-war period (1990--2014). To this end, a structural cointegrating vector autoregressive model has been used where the dollar earning of oil exports is considered as aweak exogenous variable. The results indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth and positive role of education in the interaction between foreign direct investment and economic growth. The Likelihood Ratio test results show that the applied constraints are appropriate and the results of a series of tests, such as the q test to detect autocorrelation, autocorrelation test of maximum likelihood (LM), and normality test, indicate the goodness of fit of the model

This study aims to provide a mechanism on long-term relationships between key economic variables, drawing on a vector error correction model with exogenous variables (SVECM). In doing so, quarterly data for the period 1374-1392 has been used to survey the long-run relationship between GDP, real liquidity, exchange rate, price index, a weighted average of foreign countrie's production, oil export earnings and government deficit.
The results show a positive impact in real liquidity's increase on output. The long-term effect of oil export earnings - due to its role in formation of capital- on production was positive, meaning that these earnings play an important role, even in long-term, in economic growth. Results confirmed the existence of fiscal dominance in monetary policy formulation, since 1% increase in non-oil government budget deficit could lead to an 0.46% increase in real liquidity. The results show that an increase in real output and real liquidity, respectively, could decease and increase the real exchange rate. In long run, oil revenues has positive effect on real exchange rate, due to an increase in government controls on nominal exchange rate, that in turn can e caused by government budget's dependency on oil revenues, or cheap imports because of low exchange rate price.

Structural parameters are necessary and important in some economic studies, especially in general equilibrium models. One of these structural parameters is degree of price rigidity. In this article we try estimate degree of price rigidity in Iran economy in a General Equilibrium Dynamic Stochastic Model with Bayesian method. Our result with using seasonal data of real consumption, GDP, inflation and taxes for 1377-1387 reach us to number 46 percent for price rigidity which show 46 percent of Iran's firms could not optimize their price in each period.

In this paper an attempt is made to conduct a survey regarding the institutional interaction between the government and the Central Bank of Iran. For this purpose we have investigated the nature of interplay between these two institutions, through estimating certain indices i.e targets of the Central Bank, the modus operandi of monetary and foreign exchange policy formulation, degrees of political and economic independence of the Central Bank and process of accountability to existing rules and regulations of Iran Per se. The above indices constitute the main elements of Lybek methods in quantifying and comparing the extent of independence of various Central Banks in the world. Based on this method, the positive index indicates the relative independence of Central Banks and the negative index shows non relative independence of Central Banks. However if the absolute figure of this index is high, then the degree of independence of the Central Bank will be more and vice versa. Nevertheless in consonance with our estimation, the degree of independence of the Central Bank of Iran from the government is -0.25 which indicates the non relative independence of the Central Bank from the government sine qua non. This index for countries like Argentina, Chile, Brazil and peru, is, (0), (2.5), (3), (4.5) respectively. Thus modification of certain paragraphs and articles of prevailing monetary and banking rules and regulations of the country are considered to be necessary. In this context, we suggest that incorporation of some additional articles to the present rules and regulations, may pave the way for more viable independence of the Central Bank from the government quid pro qua.

In this paper، we design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate effects of fiscal dominance on inflation rate in Iran and solve it by calibration method. In order to getting reliable results، the second-order moments of main variables were compared based on actual and simulated data; and functions of impulse response to model innovations were considered. The results show that the degree of fiscal dominance in Iranian economy is about 92%، i. e.، the independence degree of monetary and fiscal policies is nearly 8%. Therefore، decreasing fiscal dominance may lead to decreasing inflation rate in Iran. In addition، any action for increasing independence of central bank and decreasing dependence of government on seigniorage revenue will play important role in reducing inflation rate in Iran.

One of the problems in developing countries is unpleasant nexus between fiscal and monetary policies. Some of the economists believe that the main reason for inflation in such economies is monetaricizing of Government debt such as bounds. In this article it is tried to estimate the Degree of Fiscal Dominance in Iran’s economy using General Equilibrium Dynamic Stochastic Model based on Bayesian approach. Our result reaches to 77 percent for fiscal dominance which shows a low degree of central bank independence. At the end the usefulness of the obtained results are examined using some indices.

Many studies have shown positive contribution of financial sector development to economic growth. However some new results indicate that the previous findings do not hold especially in recent years. The main purpose in this study is to examine the structural break between the financial sector development and economic growth in different countries with different levels of income by using the index of bank credit to private sector. For this purpose we use an empirical endogenous growth model and a panel data consisting of 45 countries for 48 years, and test for nonlinearity. We found endogenously structural changes in the relationship of different income groups. The results confirm that the structural changes have occurred, and that the points of structural changes vary with the level of economic development.