فهرست مطالب عقیله محمودزاده احمدی نژاد

Trying to build a desirable future is one of the human opportunity to shape the future in a VUCA world. The use of foresight in the development of business models leads to a sufficient and accurate understanding of the environment and the active identification of uncertainties and fluctuations that may affect the survival of current and new business models. In addition, the evaluation of the business model (as a summary of the strategy) , in plausible and believable futures, increases the awareness of the opportunities available inside and outside the organization. Therefore, the use of foresight in the development of business models has a growing trend. However, there is no comprehensive study regarding the dimensions of using foresight in business model development. This research has done with a systematic review and Meta-synthesizes method. Also, the statistical population is the documents registered in the Scopus database between the years 2000 and 2024 in relation to the research topic. The accuracy of the data was done through coding and conceptualization of the data by two coders and calculating the Kappa coefficient (0.62).At the end, the dimensions of the development of the futuristic business model in 4 categories and 11 main components including context (dimensions and scope of activity) , drivers (technological changes, competitive changes, environmental-political changes), strategies (components and methods) and consequences (increasing predictability, innovation capacity, increasing resiliance and robustness, enhancing competitiveness).

During the Fourth Industrial Revolution, technological advancements have posed new challenges for businesses. Traditional methods of operation often rely on historical evidence and past indicators, making them susceptible to discontinuous changes. Consequently, managing and understanding uncertainties has led to the growing importance of future-oriented approaches in designing business models. However, no comprehensive study has been conducted on suitable foresight methods for designing business models in startups. Given the unique characteristics of startups, such as age, growth, and resource constraints, the methods that commonly employed by medium and large enterprises may not be applicable to them. Therefore, there is a need for independent research in this area. The main question of this research is: "What are the most important foresight methods that are considered in the analysis or design of the business model in startups?". Based on this question, a quantitative approach using the scientometric method and a qualitative approach using the questionnaire method were used. Based on scientometric studies, it was revealed that the trend of using forecasting methods in designing and developing business models is growing. Summarizing the obtained results shows that the "scenario" method is the most important appropriate foresight method in the design of a futuristic business model.