فهرست مطالب فاطمه وطن پرست قلعه جوق

This research has been conducted with the aim of identifying heat waves in Ardabil province and analyzing their synoptic patterns using a circular method. For this purpose, the daily average maximum temperature data of Ardabil, Parsabad and Meshkinshahr synoptic stations were used in the statistical period of 1980-2020. The 95th percentile index was determined as a criterion for identifying a hot day, and its duration of at least 3 days was considered as the basis for defining a heat wave. Examining the trend of SLP, HGT and Tmax of these waves showed that on the hottest days of heat waves, the trend of SLP is downward and the trend of HGT and Tmax is upward. Clustering of heat wave generation patterns based on reanalysis data of sea level pressure and geopotential height of 500 hectopascals using cluster analysis method and Ward's clustering method led to the identification of 5 clusters which were presented in two main groups. In the first pattern, low pressure on the ground surface and high pressure in the middle level of the atmosphere, and in the second pattern, the location of the studied area in the west of the pseudo-Omega blocking of western Russia at the level of 500 hectopascals were identified as the synoptic factors of creating heat waves in Ardabil province. The common feature of both patterns is the high thickness of the atmosphere over the region on the days of this event.

Drought is a natural and repeatable phenomenon that occurs due to a decrease in the amount of rainfall in a certain period. In the current research, the trend of rainfall changes and meteorological drought forecasting of 6 stations located in the Aras watershed have been investigated. To evaluate the severity of the drought, the annual rainfall data of the stations in the statistical period (1987-2021) was checked using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and simulated using MA, AR, ARMA, and ARIMA time series rainfall models and based on the criteria (AIC) was chosen as the best model for prediction. ARIMA model (0,0,1) was selected for Ardabil, Khoy, and Ahar stations, and the AR model (0, 0, 1) was selected for Parsabad, Maku, and Jolfa stations as the models with the best results. The forecast results for the next 5 years show an increase in rainfall, which makes the results of the fitted models acceptable based on the rainfall statistics available in the respective years. The results of the trend index (SPI) also showed that all 6 stations are close to normal and the highest severity of severe drought is related to Khoy station with 14%. Maku station also observed average wet conditions with 6% frequency during the studied period. Also, the results of precipitation changes using the Sen s slope test show a significant increase in precipitation in Maku station an increase without a trend in Parsabad, Khoy, and Jolfa stations, and a decrease without a trend in Ardabil and Ahar stations.

Teleconnection patterns by affecting the creation and non-creation of wind cause dust particles to rise from the surface of the earth into the air and create dust storms. This research aim is to evaluate the simultaneous effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) cycles on the fluctuation of dust storms in western Iran. For this purpose, dust storm codes and horizontal visibility of less than 1 km were used in 38 synoptic stations in western Iran during 1987-2022. By applying the statistical method, the outputs were transferred to the Geographic Information System (GIS) environment, and the zoning of the ratio of the averages was done with the kriging interpolation method. The findings showed that there is an inverse relationship between the teleconnections and the frequency of dust storms in most of the studied stations, which account for 95%, 58%, and 87% of the studied area in ENSO, IOD, and QBO indices, respectively. The highest correlation coefficients between -0.94 and -1 were observed in Piranshahr and Khalkhal stations, which is significant in the IOD index at the 99% confidence level. The results of the interpolation of the average dust ratio to the annual long-term average showed that the coincidence of the cold phase of ENSO with the negative phase of QBO had the greatest effect on the increase of annual dust storms in western Iran in the long-term, while the coincidence of the positive phase of IOD with the positive phase of QBO with a lesser effect is associated with increasing the frequency of dust storms.

In deserts and dry areas, sudden changes in temperature cause strong winds and as a result cause the phenomenon of dust. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the occurrence of dust storms and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index at selected stations in the west and southwest of Iran (Abadan, Bostan, Ilam, Dehloran, Kermanshah and Sarpol-E-Zahab). For this purpose, we used the codes of days with dust storms, horizontal visibility of less than 1 km, data related to index values (NAO) during the statistical period 1987-2022, and satellite data including dust optical depth index (AOD) obtained from the productions of the gauges of 2000-2017 MISR and 2002-2022 MODIS periods. The results of the correlation coefficients showed that there is a relatively strong inverse relationship between the NAO index in the negative phase and a weak direct relationship with dust in the positive phase, and between 51% and 70% of the dust occurrences were simultaneous with the positive phase. The graph of changes in the time series of the indices in the two negative and positive phases showed that the value of the AOD index increased from west to southwest, which is evident in the Abadan station. According to the index produced by the MISR sensor in the years 2011 and 2015 in the positive phase and in the year 2008 in the negative phase, the peak of dust storm activity in all stations and its lowest value are related to the Sarpol-E-Zahab and Kermanshah stations in the years 2002 and 2004, respectively. According to the Deep Blue index obtained from the MODIS sensor, the positive phase of 2022 and the negative phase of 2009 can be separated as the peak of dust storms. The results of the Wind rose and HYSPLIT models showed that the direction of dust storms entering Abadan, Bostan and Ilam stations was from the northwest and southwest and in Dehlorn, Kermanshah, and Sarpol-E-Zahab from the west, and the storms with external origin in these stations were influenced more by the countries of Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

The expansion of sustainable agriculture and the proper use of the country's water and soil resources require the selection of suitable plant species that are compatible with the climatic conditions of the country. Therefore, the optimal use of natural resources through the planting of plants compatible with the conditions of the region can guarantee human health, the sustainability and progress of sustainable agriculture, in fact, for the optimal use of land, the issues of water, soil and air cannot be analyzed separately For such researches, a framework such as zoning is proposed to plan, operate and properly use homogeneous pieces of land. Rosa damascene has a low water requirement and is highly adaptable to dry conditions. Considering Iran's climatic and geographical characteristics, the expansion of the cultivation of the Rosa damascene plant has gained double value.

Ardabil province in the north-west of Iran, with an area of 17,953 square kilometers, covers 1.09% of the total area of the country. Its geographical coordinates are between 37 degrees 25 minutes to 39 degrees 42 minutes north latitude and 47 degrees 3 minutes to 48 degrees 55 minutes east longitude. In the current research, using climatic criteria (Growth Degrree Days, annual precipitation, precipitation of the growing season, average temperature of the growing season, sunny hours of the growing season, and altitude) The growth of each plant starts from a certain thermal threshold, and the growth threshold of the rose is 2.5 degrees Celsius and the fuzzy TOPSIS method and the ANP network analysis process, the stations of Ardabil, Khalkhal, Parsabad and Meshginshahr have been selected for the cultivation Rosa damascene. The growth of each plant starts from a certain thermal threshold, and the growth threshold of the rose is 2.5 degrees Celsius. The steps of the TOPSIS technique include forming a decision matrix, forming a scale-free matrix, determining the Euclidean distance and choosing the best option, and the steps of the ANP method include creating a network structure between criteria, options and the goal, pairwise comparison of matrices and Formation of super matrix and selection It is the best option. In this model, each cluster and elements have a mutual relationship and the relationship of each criterion and clusters is checked with each other and they get a score between 1 and 9. The zoning and final drawing of the maps were done in the Surfer software environment and interpolation was done with the Radial Basis Functions method.

After weighting the effective parameters for the cultivation of Rosa damascene based on TOPSIS models and the ANP network analysis process and performing modeling and analysis of climate data, the final interpolation map for Rosa damascene cultivation was prepared based on the climatic potential and abilities. The results showed that in prioritizing the options for growing roses using the TOPSIS and ANP methods, the priority of the options is related to Meshgin Shahr, Khalkhal, Ardabil and Parsabad stations. In fact, the unrestricted lands include Meshgin Shahr station, which is the best place for cultivation due to its good climatic capabilities, and Ardabil and Khalkhal stations have low and medium restrictions for cultivation. The lands of this station have relatively weaker conditions than is the MeshginS hahr station , but good performance is expected from it. Parsabad station has very limited lands, which according to the assessment of climatic capability, this station lacks suitable potential for growing Rosa damascene.

In evaluating the ability of the habitat to plant a crop, not all criteria are equal. Some criteria play a key role. For this reason, factors are weighted in order to obtain a ranking of the value of decision criteria regarding suitable places for agriculture. The current research was conducted using TOPSIS and ANP methods and 6 effective atmospheric elements in the cultivation of Rosa damascene, standardization and formation of a ranking decision matrix based on these scores to determine and rank the Rosa damascene cultivation. These methods are more capable than other common methods. are doing the ranking more accurately. Finally, by interpolation (RBF) method, a map of the areas suitable for the cultivation of Rosa damascene was prepared. In the zoning map, there are very suitable areas for Mashgin Shahr station and unsuitable areas for cultivation at Parsabad station.

Rainfall is considered as one of the most important climatic elements and main and determining components in the water balance of any region. In addition to being semi-arid, the north-western region of Iran, due to its mountainous nature, witnesses many temporal and spatial changes in terms of precipitation. In this research, a time series was used to predict the annual rainfall of selected stations in the northwest of Iran including: Tabriz, Orumiyeh, Saqez, Zanjan, Sanandaj and Khoy during a statistical period of 61 years (1961-2021). In order to evaluate the stationarity of the model, the autocorrelation function was used, and the unstable data were converted to static data using the differentiation method. Then, the random models were evaluated to determine the best model to fit the rainfall of the stations. The distribution of time series and the trend analysis of the equation of the regression line of precipitation in the north-west synoptic stations in terms of millimeters show that the slope of the line in all stations has a decreasing trend and the decrease in precipitation in the stations is between 1 and 3 mm per year. It is estimated. Among the moving average (MA), autoregression (AR), autocorrelated moving average (ARMA) and autocorrelated cumulative moving average (ARIMA) models, according to the absolute value of the T statistic, it is greater than 2, P-value is less than 0.5 0 and the lowest value of Akaike information criterion (AIC), the (0, 0, 1) AR model for Saqez, Zanjan, Orumiyeh, Khoi and Tabriz stations and the (1, 0, 1) ARIMA model for Sanandaj station were determined as the best models. The forecast results show an increase in rainfall for 2023 and a decrease in rainfall for 2024 and 2025.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are coupled oceanic-atmospheric phenomena that appear over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this research, the pure impact and interaction of these two phenomena on the autumn precipitation in the Northwest Iran were analyzed for the period 1989-2018. The findings of 850 hPa vector winds anomaly for pure and combined events illustrate many differences with reciprocal phases. Examining the teleconnection effects on 23 synoptic stations in northwest Iran, displayed that ENSO has a greater influence than IOD at autumn precipitation variations. The conquest of pure ENSO events at autumn precipitation in northwest Iran compared with the long-term average in warm and cold phases has increased by 96% and decreased by 37%, respectively. This amount of autumn precipitation fluctuations under the positive and negative phases of IOD have increase by 61% and decrease by 31%. Shifting of pure IOD events from positive to negative phase, 18 stations in this area appeared an increase and five stations showed a decrease for autumn precipitation. When the El Nino phenomenon is accompanied with the positive IOD phase, the rainfall in the whole area has increased up to 60%. Whereas, autumn drought occurred more, when the La Nina periods was simultaneous with negative IOD phases. Also, evaluating autumn precipitation average of the opposite phases in combined events, findings of the Mann-Whitney test significantly display the occurrence of wet and dry durations in autumn.

Rising temperatures and global warming are the most important phenomena that have detrimental effects on various resources and human life. In this study, the output performance of two global models CanESM2 and HadGEM2 under three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from LARS-WG and SDSM models were microscale to evaluate temperature changes for the period (2021-2050).The data used are the minimum and maximum temperature of Khorramabad synoptic station for the base period (1961-2010). MAE, RMSE, MSE and R2 indices were used for calibration and validation of the models and the results showed that both models have an acceptable ability in temperature simulation. The results of the forecast show an increase in the maximum and minimum temperatures under all three RCP scenarios of the HadGEM2 model in the next period compared to the base period. The highest increase in maximum temperature is related to April with 3/5% and the lowest in November is equal to 1 % and the highest change in minimum temperature is related to June with 2/4% and the lowest is related to November and October with 3/1 percent. The results of the output of the CanESM2 climate model for the next decade show that the maximum temperature, except for September, decreases by 1/2 percent in the other months compared to the base period, with the largest changes in February and March by 3/5 percent and the minimum temperature. Except for November, it will increase by 0/9 % in other andTrend analysis indicates an increase in base period temperature.