محسن بختیار

In this paper, optimal development of Iran’s power sector over a long-term period from 2015 to 2050 is investigated. In this paper a system-engineering optimization model (MESSAGE) has been used to explore the medium to long-term power supply options. Minimization of the total system costs for the whole study period is the criterion used for optimization of the MESSAGE model. The main focus of this study is analyzing penetration of renewable energy sources under different scenarios. The main scenarios are defined based on the fossil fuel prices and demand changes. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact of the discount rate on the main results. The results indicate that the total installed capacity would be 160 GW in 2050 under an optimistic scenario, while BAU scenario calls for 250 GW capacity in the same year. The share of renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants would achieve to 25% and 15% under the optimistic condition. The findings reveal that development of green technologies requires a reasonable discount rate below 8%.

Environmental concerns, growing electricity demand and energy security are key drivers for planning of electricity generation capacity. The present study is based on an energy system model in Iran during 2015-2050. Special focus is laid on the long-term development of electricity generation technologies in different conditions, considering two demand groups: 1- business as usual (BAU), and 2- energy efficiency scenario. MESSAGE as a bottom-up energy supply optimization model is employed to assess the appropriate electricity generation options to meet the final demand in these scenarios. The results indicate that during the planning horizon, total installed capacity grows at annual rate of 3.6% and 2.4% in BAU and energy efficiency scenarios, respectively. The cumulative investment cost in energy efficiency scenario is US$75 billion (in 2014prices) lower than the BAU scenario.

Input-Output table is an expression of economic performance of a country by the period of one year. This table will divide the economy into three parts and will indicate the current transaction of commodities or activities between economic sectors. The rows of the table will show the flow of the production and their distribution between sectors and the columns will indicate purchases and cost of the sectors. If in a input-output table, intersectional transaction matrix includes energy and non-energy activities, then we can easily explain the relation of energy sector with other economic sectors. Using such a table can help us to compute total energy intensity (direct and indirect energy intensity) and also within that we can evaluate the inflammatory impact of energy prices adjustment. Updating the energy input-output table for the year 1994, has been followed by Modeling & Coordination department of energy planning bureau, Ministry of energy and with cooperation of Iran Statistical center’s experts. Summary outcomes of this research has been presented in this paper. The information of this table shows that, 68% of energy consumption in 1994 has been used as an intermediate input. Also the share of energy in intermediate expenditure was about 5.8 percent.