محمد یوسفی شاتوری

In such a way that today this basin has been severely affected by the consequences of the water crisis and has created a chaotic situation in the basin and has led to social reactions and protests, and in terms of climate and environment, lack of rainfall and drought. Consecutive years in the basin have increased the scope of the water crisis, the pressures arising from the lack of water in various sectors have become more widespread and have created threats at the basin level and on a national scale. The lack of interaction and communication of the subsystems caused by the water crisis, which is one of the important causes of the instability of water resources in the basin, together with the ineffective management pattern, the gap in the water governance of the basin, the unfair distribution of water resources, the unsystematic growth of the population, etc. has increased in the basin and has caused problems for the stability of settlements and human societies. Considering that today the water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area is increasing and various effective factors are involved in this process, the issue of water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area has become much more complicated than in the past. Therefore, the current research aims to investigate and analyze the problem of water crisis in this basin with the method of systemic analysis. In this regard, by asking the question, what are the factors affecting the water crisis in Zayandeh Rood catchment area? He has identified the factors affecting the water crisis in the Zayandeh River catchment and the constituent factors of each of these factors and analyzed these factors with a systematic approach using a descriptive-analytical method.

In terms of methodology, the present research is quantitative-qualitative, and in terms of results, it is among applied and exploratory researches. In order to identify the factors influencing the water resources crisis in the Zayandeh Rood watershed, this research has chosen the system thinking approach. To carry out this research, at the beginning with a library study of the factors influencing the water resource crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area, then the accuracy of the identified factors was checked through a survey (interview with experts). In this stage, some of the identified factors were removed, some were added, and some factors were merged. Next, to determine the importance of the identified factors, a researcher-made questionnaire was used. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by an expert panel. A quantitative sample was considered including 28 experts related to the subject who were selected by purposive sampling. The completed questionnaires were checked with the help of FBMW and FARAS models, and in the end, system dynamics and system thinking approaches were used to show the relationships between the identified variables. For this purpose, Vensim version 6.4 EX32 software was used.

The water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood watershed has had many consequences at the national and international levels. This issue shows that today water in this basin is involved in regional and sectoral competitions more than other vital resources. So, with the drying up of Zayandeh River and the Gaukhoni wetland, the most important damages and consequences of which are directed at local residents, including farmers and their crops, it has caused some economic, social, environmental and even security crises in this basin.In the meantime, many studies have been conducted on the water crisis in the Zaindehroud catchment area, the most important of which are Talebi Soumesarai et al. (2013), Zakari Mahabadi et al. Tetah and Salehian (1399), Ismaili (1399), Ziaei (1393), Salehian and Rahmani Fazli (1397) mentioned. Despite the fact that these studies have considered the situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood catchment as critical; They have raised the risk of environmental sustainability and human life due to water shortage in the Zayandeh River basin and showed the situation of underground water resources, destruction of natural resources and environmental damage caused by the water crisis, the social, economic, geographical and management situation of the basin is unfavorable.

Therefore, today this issue has emerged as a major challenge at the local and national level, which has involved the situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood watershed due to human activity and climate change. So, the situation facing the water resources in the mentioned basin has become the main concern of the people and agents of the basin, which basically threatens the life and survival of these communities. Based on such characteristics and identifiers, investigating the critical situation of water resources in the Zaindeh Rood watershed requires systemic thinking in order to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the water structure in this watershed. In this regard, the researchers of the current research have established the foundation of their research in such a way that in the critical situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood watershed, they can benefit from systemic thinking, which has been less discussed in the water crisis literature. For this purpose, after identifying the components and factors affecting the critical situation of water resources in Zayandeh Rood catchment and understanding that all the factors with different intensity and weakness but affecting the critical situation of water resources in the mentioned catchment are effective as a single system. It has ranked these components and factors. The conclusion of the results of this ranking showed that the political and legal component had the greatest impact and the natural-environmental component had the least impact on the water crisis in the Zayandeh Rood catchment. And the three factors of lack of proper governance structure and inefficient management of water resources in the catchment basin, the activity of water industries in the catchment basin and the high volume of virtual water export are the most effective factors on the critical situation of water resources in the Zayandeh Rood catchment basin.

Identify the influential and key variables of local water governance regarding virtual water use in Isfahan Province.

 The methodology governing the research is descriptive-analytical. The data needed for the research has been collected by library and field method (interview and questionnaire) and analyzed using the DEMATEL technique, FCOPRAS and FSOARA combined model and Vensim software.

The research results show the variables of the lack of proper water governance structure in Isfahan Province, neglecting the necessity of spatial planning, the development of water-bearing industries in Isfahan Province, etc. The partial balance from the point of view of water governance in Isfahan Province B, the existence of water mafia in Isfahan Province, unsustainable development, economic threats caused by the lack of agricultural products, insecurity of water resources in Isfahan Province, etc., are shown as disabled.

Based on the findings of the research, it can be stated that the variables of the development of water-bearing industries in Isfahan province, climate changes and rainfall patterns, lack of proper governance structure in Isfahan Province, social conflicts around the axis of water, unsustainable development and non-integrated allocation of water resources in Isfahan Province, inattention to necessity of land preparation and lack of policy reform and lobbying in the local water governance of Isfahan province, etc., were identified as key variables from the point of view of the research experts.

 This article explores the overlooked interactions between water governance and political, economic, social, and geographical approaches in water resources management. It innovatively analyzes how virtual water interacts with local water governance to address the water crisis in Isfahan province, using the DEMATEL technique, the FCOPRAS and FSOARA combined model, and Vensim software.

Isfahan Province is located in the arid and semi-arid region of Iran and is considered one of the country's leaders in the production and export of agricultural and industrial products. These characteristics have created challenges for local governance in this province. In the current research, the upcoming scenarios in the field of virtual water application in the local governance of Isfahan province have been investigated using a future research approach. This research is descriptive-analytical, and data were collected through library and field methods and analyzed using Micmac, Scenario Wizard, and Vensim software. The results of the research showed that coordination between various institutions and stakeholders, management of water resources in the agricultural sector in line with other sectors, the collective interest approach, development of water-intensive industries, climate change, rainfall patterns, and population size are among the key variables affecting the use of virtual water in local governance of Isfahan province. In the analysis of key drivers and possible scenarios, the output of the Scenario Wizard software showed that out of the 18 situations on the scenario page, the largest number of situations are related to scenarios that put the local governance of Isfahan province on a crisis path. These situations comprise 38.88 percent of the total situations on the scenario page. Therefore, the future situation of virtual water use in Isfahan province was assessed as critical.

Security, stability, development and health are on the agenda of all political systems, which have found a close, complementary and increasing relationship with water resources. Therefore, water supply is a special function of the government. Over the past century, the access of political-spatial units and communities to limited sources of fresh water has been involved in many fundamental bottlenecks. In recent decades, Zayandeh Rood watershed has been involved in a series of problems with origins inside and outside the basin, which has resulted in the drying up of most of it, and has affected the security and development of the resident communities in the same proportion. The current article, which is useful, has explained the reflection of the water crisis on the hydropolitical scenarios of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area. The methodology governing descriptive-analytical research. The data required for the research has been collected by library and field method (interview-questionnaire) and analyzed using Micmac, Scenario Wizard and Shannon's entropy model software. The results of the research showed that out of 31 possible situations connected with seven scenarios with strong and likely compatibility, the situations that describe the hydropolitical scenarios of the Zayandeh Rood watershed as critical, which include the possible possible situations. . Therefore, the water crisis had a critical effect on the hydropolitical situation of the area upstream of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area, and the optimal management of water resources at the national level and in accordance with it at the level of the Zayandeh Rood catchment area became the most appropriate solution to prevent the occurrence of a critical situation in the Zayandeh Rood catchment area.

Today, water is considered as a way of survival and gaining power. The upstream countries of the international rivers are thinking about managing the water that comes out of their soil, as the GAP project in Turkiye is an example. The present study seeks to answer the question of what is the role of the GAP project in the hydropolitics of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and what is Turkiye’s strategy for the implementation of this project? The results of the present study, based on the theoretical approach of hydraulicity, show that Turkiye, as a hydro-hegemonic country upstream of the Tigris and Euphrates transboundary rivers, has adopted a unilateral (self-interpretive) strategy in the pattern of hydropolitical relations with other watersheds in the basin. Therefore, strengthening water diplomacy with a conciliatory approach in the hydropolitical relations of the countries of the region, changing the military and security attitude to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers to an interactive and cooperative attitude, reforming and developing the hydropolitical relations of the basin countries for bilateral or multilateral negotiations are important.

Today, according to the role, importance and position of the border in political geography, as well as in determining the limits of jurisdiction and sovereignty of governments on the one hand and their management to protect the country on the other hand, it can be considered as one of the most critical parameters and effective indicators about border security and preventing challenges existing in the border areas. In this regard, border management is considered one of the most important topics in political studies, despite the consequences of the globalization era, border control and management on both national and transnational scales have been wholly affected, so far, many views and theories have been formed directly and indirectly in this regard. Therefore, to better recognize and understand these related and generalizable views and theories in border management at both national and transnational scales, the present research seeks to answer the question of what the existing theories and views related to border management at national and international scales. Aspects have differences and similarities. Therefore, the current research was conducted with a fundamental-theoretical objective and descriptive-analytical method. In the analysis of the data, an attempt has been made to address the most important differences and similarities arising from the existing opinions on border management on both national and transnational scales. Based on this, the results of the research indicate that the best and most desirable approach to border management at the national scale is the "integrated and comprehensive" approach to the border, and at the transnational scale, the "coordinated and integrated border management" approach and its application by A few countries in the world can be considered as the most efficient point of view to ensure global security and away from violence and border security threats

The structure of political organization of space and political divisions in Iran, by influencing the emergence and dominance of the center-periphery pattern, has caused the marginal regions of the country, along with increasing deprivation and underdevelopment, to suffer from spatial, political and social rapture with other parts of the country over the last few decades. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to identify the main problems of political organization and administrative-territorial organization in Iran affected by the model of a unitary centralized governance system. This study seeks to answer the question: What are the most important challenges and problems affected by the unitary centralized governance structure for the organization and administrative-territorial organization of the country? According to the results of this study, the most important problems of political organization of space in Iran are; Ignorance of spatial-geographical justice, weak national development, infiltration of informal factors, formation of inappropriate administrative-managerial structure, weakness in the formation of national solidarity and structural unity and geographical homogeneity, extreme political-spatial centralism in the center and insufficient attention to geographical-human quality factors in political organization of space. This is an applied study and tries to provide an efficient pattern of political organization and territorial-administrative organization for the country with a descriptive-analytical method. According to the results, it seems that the "unitary decentralized or unitary regional governance-territorial model" is more compatible with the natural and human conditions of Iran and can to a large extent solve the problems of the current system of political divisions in Iran.

Today, security and development are two unstable components in the management of border areas. As Sistan and Baluchestan province in terms of growth and development in the country's development ranking indicators, is always at a low level and on the other hand, regional and spatial imbalances between the central and border areas of the province seems very obvious, this underdevelopment has created conditions for the creation and growth of the phenomenon of trafficking. Thus, instead of solving the problem of underdevelopment as one of the main reasons and underlying problems of the province, due to security problems, governments have considered the issue of increasing border security as a short-term solution for these areas. In this regard, the present study, which is analytical-explanatory in nature and has been obtained by collecting documents and the latest reports of government organizations in 2020 and 2021, documents and information in books and scientific documents and their content interpretation. , Has tried to analyze the effective factors and indicators in the research findings as well as the relationship between the three components of underdevelopment, trafficking and intensification of border security, as well as in Sistan and Baluchestan province. The findings of the study revealed that issues such as lack of social justice, instability of security, the phenomenon of smuggling of goods, spatial and geographical imbalances, instability of residence and population, reduced political participation and political development, increased political violence and terrorist activities, neighborhoods with underdeveloped and undeveloped countries. They have affected the development cycle and security of the region.