فهرست مطالب محمدصادق حاجی ملامیرزائی

The present study examines the quantitative effects of uncertainty regarding government expenditure policy (current and construction expenditures) on Iran's economic activity. Uncertainty is a situation where future events or their probability of occurrence are not predicted. In the real world, the economy is full of uncertainty of economic factors, which leads to risk and danger in the decision-making space of economic factors and affects their behavior. In this article, we intend to use the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR), which are known as impulse models; Uncertainty effects created by the government's current expenditures and construction expenditures and other effective indicators such as; Measure the impact of oil prices and financial crises on economic activities such as production and employment. The data of the study was collected from the Central Bank website and the model was estimated using Eviuse software for the years 1365-1399. The findings showed that an impulse from the oil price area causes a 5% increase in production and a 1% increase in employment, also an impulse from the financial crisis area causes a 3% decrease in production and a 12% decrease in employment, respectively. The impulse from the area of uncertainty of current and construction expenses, causes a decrease in order; 12 percent is produced and 7 and 5 percent is employed.

As the transparency of the banking system increases, the information gap will narrow and eventually competition between banks for profitability will increase. The importance of banking competition can be expressed and emphasized because with its increase, the economic growth rate will also be affected and the economic cycle will start. Therefore, paying attention to the two issues of transparency of the banking system and the competitiveness of banks and their influence from each other can be considered a turning point in the prosperity of the economy and move the country's economic growth rate in a positive direction. The present article deals with the impact of transparency, corruption index and banking characteristics on competition index accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange for the years 2013 to 2018. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of the analytical nature, and given that by using past information, the model is estimated to be a post -research type. The results of the model estimation show that transparency has a positive and significant effect on increased competitiveness, and the corruption index has reduced the competitiveness index in selected stock banks.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of government spending policy uncertainty on the real sector of the economy in recession and boom regimes using the rotation model and Markov switching regime change in the period from 1365 to 1399. Considering the importance of the effect of economic policies and the uncertainty of the government's spending policy on the real variables of the economy such as production and employment; Clarifying the relationship between the uncertainty of the government's spending policy and economic activities can open the way for the country's macro-planning. The findings showed that the uncertainty of current and construction expenditures, oil, monetary and currency shocks, financial crisis, and sanctions in recession conditions cause a decrease in GDP and employment. In addition to this, the duration of production stagnation and boom period is 20 and 15 years, respectively, and these values for employment are 21 and 14 years, respectively. Therefore, the rate of permanence during Iran's recession has a high probability. These factors increase the risk of investing in Iran and lead to a decrease in production and employment.Key words: uncertainty, government spending, Markov switching regime change model, Recession and boomJEL Classification: C24, G32, G19.

Implementing an optimal monetary strategy is empirically as well as policy-making. Monetary strategy as a key component in many macroeconomic theories has always been the subject of widespread debate among economists. Studies in developed countries show that the correct implementation of monetary strategy depends on macroeconomic variables, especially shocks to these variables. Considering the role and position of oil prices and exchange rates and uncertainty in the changes of these macroeconomic variables in the Iranian economy, this study aims to investigate the impact of oil price and exchange rate uncertainty on optimal monetary strategy in Iran to estimate the optimal monetary strategy model in Iran. Has used and used ARDL method with vector intervals with wide intervals to estimate the pattern. The data of regression pattern variables are annual and the period between 1981 and 1397 in the Iranian economy. The result of model estimation showed that the coefficient of variable oil price uncertainty in the short and long term is negative and statistically significant. Also, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the optimal monetary strategy in the economy is negative and significant. Finally, according to the model, the impact of GDP on the implementation of the optimal monetary strategy in Iran is positive and significant, which in a way confirms the trading demand for money.

The present article examines the impact of human strategies and perceived organizational support on organizational performance in the Armed Forces Social Security Organization. The method of the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of data collection method. Also, this research is a quantitative research in terms of the nature of data. In this article, standard questionnaires are used from the articles of Suleiman Ibrahim et al. (2017) for organizational performance, Sanford et al. (2009) for human resources strategy and Eisenberger et al. (1989) for adapted organizational support variable. It has been researched in terms of validity and validity and has shown high validity. The model estimation, considering that the variables do not have a statistically normal distribution, has been done by the method of structural equations and the results indicate a significant impact of human resource strategies and perceived organizational support on the organization's performance at 95% confidence level.

Banks are the beating heart of financial activities, which facilitate trade and commerce and flourish markets, and enhance economic growth and prosperity by organizing and directing receipts and payments. Their situation inserts a significant effect on other economic sectors of the society. Therefore, the effect of financial incentives, relationships of banks and their innovation with the optimal allocation of financial resources lead to economic growth and development. In this way more depositors become attracted to banks and banking facilities increase by the competitive market and increased creativity of banks in using various applicants.    This study is intended to investigate the relationship between financial incentives in terms of government expenditure and taxes, special banking variables and innovations in order to increase profitability in selected listed banks during 2013 to 2019. The model is estimated through ARDL PANEL method. According to the estimation of the profitability model of selected banks in this research, the researchers found out that government expenditure, as an indicator of financial incentives, has a positive effect on the profitability of selected listed banks. The other financial incentive, the tax rate, has a significant negative effect on the profitability of listed banks. Furthermore, the results of model estimation showed that the effect of banking competition, capital adequacy index and innovation index, derived from the transactions made by Internet banking, effect profitability positively. However, the effect of credit risk variable on banks' profitability index is significantly negative.

One of the main problems of oil-rich countries, especially Iran, is the financing of development projects through oil revenues. In most of these countries, the oil sector has a high share of value added in GDP. The sharp rise in oil revenues, while considered a natural resource, has become an economic disaster. The main question in this study, given the decline in oil prices in recent years and its association with sanctions issues, which highlights the need for more domestic production and support for investment in the private sector, is whether it is possible to depend on revenues. Reduce oil by strengthening the private sector and increasing production and relying on domestic labor in the shadow of a resilient economy, and what strategies can be used to replace oil revenues to increase production. In this research, the data of the annual time series 1351-1397 and the error correction coefficient model have been used. The results of the model indicate a negative relationship between the ratio of private sector investment to total government investment, private sector investment and the ratio of exports to imports as a reliance on domestic production and GDP, also looking at the sign of the ratio of GDP to GNP as well as labor productivity can be concluded that by relying on the labor force in the face of sanctions and by emphasizing the resistance economy can help increase the country's GDP