محمدعلی جمالیزاده

Ancient cities have always possessed inherent distinctions from contemporary cities, which are evident in their physical structures and overall layouts, allowing them to be easily differentiated from their modern counterparts. These distinctions, influenced by economic, political, cultural, and social conditions, have resulted in varying degrees of change in the urban structure and have given rise to two types of urban growth. Organic growth is characterized by a continuous and coherent expansion that prioritizes form in relation to function, in stark contrast to the fragmented and discrete nature of global cities in the modern era. This study seeks to address whether it is feasible to apply the characteristics and developmental patterns of ancient cities in today's world by examining the evolution of urban form throughout history up to the present day. Alternatively, can a favorable outcome be achieved by integrating certain characteristics of ancient cities into contemporary urban environments? Based on this objective, the study explores the evolution of urban form across three historical periods - pre-Islamic, post-Islamic, and the modern era - with a particular focus on the establishment of governmental centers in the central desert of Iran. The comparative method of induction is employed to discuss the subject matter in line with the research assumptions. The findings indicate that the first and second hypotheses have yielded more significant results in a greater number of unsuccessful experiments. Conversely, the third hypothesis has been more successful in a wider range of experiments with diverse outcomes. Moreover, considering the success rate of 0.100 and the absence of unsuccessful experiences for the Kerman experiment, it can be argued that this hypothesis is relatively superior and preferable for assessing the success rate of related projects.

In recent years, the growing trend of population and overuse of groundwater aquifers and subsequent events such as droughts are causing irreparable damage to the country's socio-economic infrastructure. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of groundwater level on rainfall fluctuations in Rafsanjan plain from 1992 to 2016. Drought periods were determined based on meteorological drought index (SPI) and groundwater (GRI) at three time scales (12, 24 and 48 months) and correlation and trend were determined using Pearson correlation and Mann-Kendall test, respectively. The results of meteorological and groundwater drought analysis showed that the highest drought classes in these two indices in the relatively normal class were 12, 24 and 48 months at 33.56, 41. 87 and 49.01 for SPI and 29.75, 29.96 and 29.64 for the index, respectively. GRI occurred The study of the effects of meteorological drought on the changes in groundwater aquifers indicated that the drought showed the highest correlation with the GRI index of 0.414 in the 48 month period, so that this scale is the most consistent since 2003. With the aquifer drop variations, and then showed the highest correlation on a 24 month scale of 0.256. The bottom is relatively high doses correlation between SPI and GRI indicators show that groundwater levels are influenced by significant changes. The results also showed that the Rafsanjan plain groundwater loss trend was significant at 99% level and all Mann-Kendall test statistics indicated that the aquifer level changes in these areas had a negative and negative trend such that the groundwater level during this plain The 25 year old dropped 20.75 meters.

In this study, the prediction of fluctuations in groundwater level was influenced by stochastic models in Rafsanjan plain. Future precipitation was projected using the ARIMA model in EViews9 software for 2017-2023, then groundwater drainage was simulated using the groundwater model system (GMS) during the base period (2003-2016) and results from the ARIMA model for the upcoming period. The results of groundwater drainage simulation showed that in the whole region, groundwater abatement occurred in the upcoming period relative to the base period, and the most groundwater losses occurred in the southwest of the plain, and an annual increase of approximately 130 million cubic meters Groundwater resources are made. In general, groundwater has the highest level (upper level) at the beginning of the period and the lowest level (lowest level) at the end of the statistical period. After modeling the groundwater level for the base period, rainfall prediction from the ARIMA model was applied to the groundwater model with the assumption that the aquifer was operationally constant. The results showed that the aquifer volume deficit was 1021.09 million cubic meters in the final model year (2023). Also, the changes in the level of the aquifer in the Rafsanjan Plain from 2003 to 2023 indicate that, given the estimated rainfall from the ARIMA model, it can be admitted that an average of 1 meter annual waterfall will occur in this plain.