فهرست مطالب معصومه دادگر

Forecasting the stock market in each period has been difficult and the value of stock trading has been affected by various factors. Among these factors have been the oil and gas sector, especially in countries that depend on the revenue from their sales. On the other hand, the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has led to profound changes in both areas. Therefore, in this article, the relationship between oil prices and the Iranian stock market is examined with respect to the prevalence of the Corona pandemic. Understanding the behavior dynamics of the stock exchange value index can help to more accurately predict the future behavior of this variable. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, as well as the simultaneous impact of the corona pandemic news and the rate of corona virus infection on the value of the Iranian stock exchange. In the present paper, nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) in the time period (1399: 05: 15-1398: 11: 30) has been used. The results show that in the long run, rising oil prices have a significant asymmetric effect on stock exchange value. On the other hand, in the short run, the rate of Covid-19 patients has a positive relationship without meaning and the Covid-19 media index has a negative relationship with meaning with the value of stock exchange trading.

In the face of frequent stock market turbulences that lead to losses for investors, it is necessary to determine the factors that are able to predict the stock index as accurately as possible. These factors depend on economic, political, social, cultural, etc. conditions in each country. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between Iran's stock index and global economic activity. Therefore, Kilian's economic index is used as an index to estimate global economic activity. After the definition and calculation method of this index, in the rest of this article, it examines the effect of shocks on real economic activity on Iran's stock index. Therefore, by applying the structural vector autoregression estimation method (SVAR) during the time period from 2001:01 to 2018:03 and using instantaneous response functions and analysis of variance, the effect of the variable of global economic activity on Iran's stock index has been investigated. Also, the variables of oil price, global oil production and exchange rate have been used as auxiliary and effective variables on the stock index. The results of the instantaneous reaction functions show that in the short term, the shocks of real global economic activity have had a positive effect on the stock index from the beginning of the period to the end of the period, and in other words, the stock index has shown a positive reaction to the shock of this variable.

In addition to being contagious to humans and the devastating effects on their health, the outbreak of the corona pandemic has also had contagious effects on the global economy; So that the relationship between different markets in this period has also affected. In this paper, the relationship between commodity markets, capital, money, exchange rates, gold and energy is examined and for this purpose, consumer price index, total stock index, liquidity volume, exchange rate, Bahar Azadi coin price and OPEC oil prices during the period 1386-1: 1399: 09 were used as widely used indicators of these markets. To investigate the qualitative effect of corona pandemic, the virtual variable corona during the period 1398: 11 to 1399: 09 is used. For modeling, SVAR approach was used and finally, to ensure the results of estimation, two operations of instantaneous reaction functions and analysis of variance were performed.