فهرست مطالب معصومه عزیزخانی

Pricing gasoline and optimal allocation of resources have always been topics of interest for governments and experts. The increasing jump in the exchange rate has created a significant difference between the nominal and real prices of gasoline. Therefore, in the present study, a solution is proposed to narrow the existing gap by introducing a floating tax proportional to gasoline consumption, and its effect on household income distribution is examined. On the other hand, the regressive feature is a weakness of the consumption tax system that leads to undesirable effects on income distribution by imposing a higher tax burden on vulnerable classes. Therefore, the proposed scenario in this study is similar to the current pricing system and is in the form of two-tiered rates (quota-based and non-quota-based rates). The quota-based section is exempt from taxes and is similar to the past procedure, while the non-quota-based gasoline price is calculated based on individuals' consumption, considering a 5% tax for each liter of consumption exceeding the monthly quota. If the consumption increases, instead of receiving more subsidies, the higher expenses will accompany the consumer. In this regard, by using an almost ideal demand system model, the effects of implementing the proposed scenario on inequality and income distribution among urban households were studied, and categorized into four gasoline consumption groups (less than 60 liters, 60 to 80 liters, 80 to 120 liters, and more than 120 liters) during the years 2017-2020, considering some demographic variables such as household size, gender, age, marital status, employment, education, and household head's ownership of housing. Price and income elasticities were extracted, and the compensatory variation (CV) index of changes was calculated. Assuming the implementation of the proposed scenario and the constancy of prices for all commodity groups except gasoline, the household expenditure data was simulated, and inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. The results show that if the above-mentioned scenario is implemented by the government, assuming the constancy of prices for other commodity groups, a relative improvement in the Gini coefficient is obtained, indicating a reduction in inequality.

Over the last decade, there has been a clear increase in ICT expenditures by households, both in value and as a proportion of total expenditure. Such a trend, however, has not affected all households in the same way. This study analyzes the socio-economic determinants of urban household expenditures on ICT goods and services in Iran in the year 2019 based on microdata from the Household Budget Surveys. To achieve this, we have applied Heckman's two-stage model, aiming to identify the determinants affecting the likelihood of spending on ICT and the amount spent. Our analysis further dissects ICT spending into its constituent components, including IT goods, IT services, communication goods, and communication services. Based on the results, per capita income has a significant and positive effect both on the probability of spending and the level of per capita ICT expenditures. Moreover, households led by male heads are more likely to engage in ICT spending, although their actual expenditures are lower. Households with larger sizes and households which have a married head are more likely to spend on ICT. The impact of education level and age of the household’s head on both the probability to use and the amount spent is positive and significant. There is a negative quadratic relationship between the age of the household’s head and both the probability of spending and the level of per capita ICT expenditures. Furthermore, consumption economies of scale exist in ICT expenditures. The likelihood of spending on all types of ICT components is positively influenced by per capita income, size of the household, education and age of the household’s head. Concerning the level of per capita expenditures on IT goods and communication goods and services, they are higher for households who have higher per capita income. There is a negative quadratic relationship between the age of the household’s head and both the probability of spending and the level of communication services expenditures. Households with highly educated heads tend to allocate higher budgets to communication goods and services. Lastly, consumption economies of scale are observed in IT goods, IT services, and communication services.

Despite the significant role of ICT in various fields, equal opportunities have not been provided for all segments of society, and the digital divide has emerged as a new phenomenon on a global and regional scale. The digital divide is a complex and multidimensional issue that is defined by three factors: access to ICT, skills and competencies, and the social and economic effects of ICT use. Measuring the digital divide requires taking into account various variables. In this study, the digital divide was calculated using four factors: access to landline and mobile phones, internet access, and computer ownership. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the factors affecting the digital divide at the provincial level in Iran. Using a combined data method for 31 provinces of Iran during the period of 2005-2020 and employing a generalized regression model, the study examined the effects of socio-economic factors on the digital divide. The results indicate that two variables, inflation and population, are insignificant, while other variables examined (income inequality, mobile phone access, gross domestic product, education, and urbanization) have a direct and significant impact on the digital divide. According to the results, allocating credit, encouraging private sector participation and investment, increasing citizens' interest in using digital services, and expanding the scope of service delivery to remote and deprived areas are effective solutions for reducing the digital divide.

The spread of tobacco consumption at the retail level has changed the composition and share of goods groups in the household consumption basket, and as a result, the demand for essential and valuable items has decreased. Due to the low tax rate on tobacco and its ineffectiveness in the amount of consumption during the past years, according to the approved budget bill, from the beginning of 2023, a tax  will be considered on each cigarette stick, contrary to previous years. Therefore, in the present study, using the EASI demand system model and deriving price and income elasticities, the impact of implementing the mentioned policy on the welfare of households in urban areas of Iran is examined based on the information from the years 2019-2020, along with simulating this information in the year 2022 and taking into account certain demographic variables in individual and social dimensions. The results show that both domestic and imported cigarettes are in aspect of  price, are  low elastic items, and the use of price policies (such as taxes) does not have high effect on reducing consumption; on the other hand, their income elasticity is less than one, categorizing them as essential household items and  implementing the mentioned policy by increasing the cost of tobacco leads to a decrease in household welfare by 1,448,939 rials. Also, variables such as the presence of adolescents in the family, the number of adults, gender, marital status, and widowhood/being divorced of the head of household have a significant and positive impact and variables such as the presence of children in the family, employment and head of the household’s income, and the years of education of both the head of household and his/her spouse have a negative impact on the demand for domestic and imported cigarettes.

In addition to intensified nonoptimal consumption, the accelerated rise of fuel consumption in the transportation sector is also followed by other hazards in domains such as the environment and national energy security and supply. Therefore, policymakers are particularly interested in improving the productivity of energy consumption with the intention of fuel saving. Such an approach, however, is faced with the rebounded effect in reality, and its positive impacts on reducing energy consumption are counteracted to a large extent.Aiming to estimate the direct rebound effect of improving gasoline consumption efficiency among urban households in four classes of consumption (less than 60 L, 60 to 80 L, 80 to 120 L, and more than 120 L) from 2017 to 2020, the present study applies the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method.The results indicate that the direct rebound effect of improving gasoline consumption efficiency in four classes of consumption, i.e., less than 60 L, 60 to 80 L, 80 to 120 L, and more than 120 L is 0.73, 0.94, 0.63, and 0.47, respectively. These findings imply that the higher the non-rationed gasoline consumption, the more the saving. In fact, the gasoline pricing mechanism, which has been subject to ongoing criticism, is a significant factor in the extent of the rebound effect, and further amendments are required in this regard. 

Pricing of gasoline and the necessity of reforms in this area are perpetual concerns among experts and policymakers of the country. By allocating a large volume of subsidy to gasoline, not only has the main goal of supporting the poor classes of the society remained unrealized, but it has also created various problems such as excessive consumption, smuggling, and the spread of pollution. In this study, an effort is made to propose a new pricing policy for gasoline with the aim of reducing poverty in the society. In this scenario, a certain allocation (60 liters per month at a fixed price of 15000 Rials) will be preserved, and only non-allocated gasoline will be subject to a floating price and a 5% tax based on consumption. This study introduces a scenario and examines its effects on various types of poverty (absolute and relative) compared to the current situation.

The gasoline consumption data of 78255 households residing in the provinces of the country during the years 2017-2020 were collected and categorized into four groups (less than 60 liters, 60 to 80 liters, 80 to 120 liters, and more than 120 liters). This was based on the view that the amount of gasoline consumption is a part of the household income. The data were derived from expenditure surveys conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran. By employing an ideal demand system model and seemingly unrelated regression method, the share of nine selected commodity groups from the household consumption basket, including (food, clothing and footwear, housing, water, sewage, fuel, lighting, health and medical services; gasoline; transportation excluding gasoline; cultural and recreational services, prepared foods, hotels, and restaurants, and other goods and services) were examined while taking into account demographic variables including household size, gender, age, marital status, employment status, education, and home ownership of the heads of households. Price and income elasticities were extracted, the Compensating Variation (CV) measure of changes was calculated, and household cost information, poverty (absolute and relative) simulation and estimation were conducted, assuming the implementation of the proposed scenario.

The income elasticity of gasoline demand is less than one for all consumption categories. This elasticity has the highest value for consumption categories of less than 60 liters per month (the monthly allocation) and indicates a higher sensitivity of this category compared to other gasoline consumption categories. With the increase of income, the gasoline consumption of this group, as it has not yet reached its saturation point, increases more than other groups. For non-rationed consumption, there is a positive income elasticity trend alongside an increase in gasoline consumption, indicating that gasoline consumption also increases with increasing income. The elasticity of gasoline price showed that this commodity is essential for households, and an increase in its price has no significant effect on their consumption. Nevertheless, gasoline consumers within the monthly rationed range (60 liters) have a stronger reaction to price changes, and any price change affects the basic needs of households belonging to this consumption category. Households belonging to the consumption category of more than 120 liters have the lowest price elasticity, and it is necessary to change the pricing method to make them sensitive to the price of gasoline. Implementing the proposed scenario and imposing taxes on the consumption exceeding the allocated ration for households will result in changes in the welfare of households based on their level of consumption. To estimate the Compensating Variation (CV), the percentage change in the allocated budget share of the commodity group, the approximate relative price changes, and Hicksian price elasticity (compensation) were calculated. By implementing the policy of imposing taxes on excess consumption, households that consume between 60 to 80 liters of gasoline monthly will receive an additional 800,467 Rials for their welfare, and households with consumption between 80 to 120 liters and over 120 liters monthly will lose 5,843,089 Rials and 21,361,290 Rials of welfare, respectively. After adding and subtracting the calculated welfare to household expenses, simulations were performed, and poverty (absolute and relative) was recalculated. The results showed that adding welfare to low-consumption households reduces the poverty rate compared to the current situation. Among the demographic variables examined, except for the virtual age variable, which has an inverse relationship with gasoline consumption, the other demographic variables including household size, home ownership, gender, education, employment, income ownership, and marital status of the heads of households have significant and direct relationships with gasoline consumption.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Currently, the policy of stabilizing gasoline prices in a two-tiered system (allocated and non-allocated prices) is being implemented, which will not be a logical solution in inflationary conditions. A solution needs to be proposed to partially amend and control the gasoline consumption pattern while taking into account the social-political dimensions of pricing reforms. Therefore, in this study, the scenario of non-allocated gasoline pricing proportional to the level of consumption was analyzed as a proposed solution. The results showed that implementing the proposed scenario leads to a reduction in poverty (absolute and relative). This finding has a significant impact on the decision-making of policymakers in order to improve the level of welfare in the society.

Despite the importance of energy inequality issues in Iran, the depth and extent of this issue have been neglected and have not been examined. The necessity of social justice, having an advanced society, and reducing the effects of energy inequality in the economic, social, and cultural growth and development in a country, cause this issue to be investigated. The goal of this study is to identify and evaluate the factors that play an important role in energy inequality. Hence, this study investigated the impact of economic-social parameters on energy inequality by using the combined data method for 31 countries during 2009-2020. This research results show that three factors of population, energy price, and GDP have a negative and significant effect on the inequality of energy consumption. Also, variables such as government current expenditures and education have a significant and positive effect on energy consumption inequality. On the other hand, urbanism and development expenditures of the government have no noticeable relation with energy inequality

Gasoline pricing policy has always been a challenging issue and it has wide economic, political and social dimensions in Iran. In this study, first, the current policy of gasoline pricing has been examined based on analytical and descriptive approach. Then, new pricing scenario is proposed to reduce the harm caused by the current policy. The results show that the current gasoline pricing policy is separate from the economic situation and leads to over-consumption of gasoline, increased polluting emissions, more unfair distribution of subsidies, and increased incentives to smuggle fuel. To address the current price disadvantages and the social consequences of price reforms, a consumption tax policy is recommended as a suggested solution. Under the proposed policy, the price of gasoline is completely affected by the quantity consumed and the more fuel consumed is associated with higher costs rather than larger subsidies. In this policy, the incentive to smuggle fuel, which is associated with high fuel consumption, is greatly reduced because higher fuel consumption is provided at regional prices. Furthermore, consumers with low consumption (less than 80 liters per month) earn more well-being than the current policy and the proposed scenario is expected to be socially acceptable to people.

The policy of providing foreign currency at preferential exchange rates for the import of basic goods, especially food, was implemented at the beginning of 2018 to support the more vulnerable segments of society. On 9, May, 2022, four years into the implementation of this policy, however, the government eliminated the preferential exchange rate for some commodities such as red meat, chicken meat, eggs, dairy products, and vegetable oils, given the country's economic conditions to target the subsidies, mitigate the negative effects of the policy, and help improve the economic situation. Furthermore the government has also started to pay a monthly sum of 400,000 Tomans to the first three income deciles, and 300,000 Tomans to the next income deciles of society in cash to compensate for the welfare loss to households. This study investigates the effects of removing the preferential exchange rate on the demand for the above-mentioned food and non-food commodities including clothing, housing, transportation, and other goods that are of great importance in the household consumption basket, taking into account some demographic variables including household size, gender, age, education level, and the employment status of the household head in the first weeks of implementing the policy. The percentage increase in the price of the studied food products in the time interval before and after the implementation of the policy is calculated based on the official prices presented by the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade. The effect of the implementation of eliminating the preferential exchange rate policy on the welfare of Iranian urban households is investigated by applying the EASI demand system model, extracting price and income elasticities of demand, and simulating the cost data of individual households after the implementation of the above policy using the compensating variation (CV) measure and recalculating the Gini coefficient. According to the results, the Gini coefficient indicating the reduction of inequality, will be relatively improved in the short term if the government implements the policy, assuming the price of other goods remains constant.