مهدی وزیری

 Topic and problem:

 The present article seeks to identify the conceptual differences around the identity of the marginalized among the policies of marginalization, the views of cultural workers and activists in municipalities and neighborhood centers, and the perspective of the marginalized themselves.

Clark and Brown's thematic analysis method has been used in this research, and the data was purposefully selected from special cases, which include documents related to marginalization policies, semi-structured interviews with 48 people from the margins. Residents and 25 employees and cultural activists are located in the municipality and neighborhood hall in the 2nd, 4th, 12th, 18th and 19th districts of Tehran.

The findings show that in the marginalization policies, the identity of the marginalized is based on the two main themes of local nervousness and freedom-creativity, and in the view of employees and cultural trends, based on characteristics such as strong local solidarity. Uncertainty, disorganization, etc. are formed. But the interview with marginal residents showed that their identity is fundamentally linked with the concept of work. The solidarity of the marginal residents is a normal solidarity like anywhere else in the city, but the strong local solidarity of the marginal residents is formed when they feel that their work is threatened by a new order. Their authority is against the threat of creating uncertainty and disorder.ز

The evapotranspiration , as a major component of hydrological cycle, is quite important in agricultural water management and cropping pattern. The aim of this study is to asses two different climate datasets namely CRU and CFSR for estimation of potential evapotranspiration using WEAP model, in Karkheh basin southwest of Iran. Potential evapotranspiration estimated by Penman Monteith equation using observed data were considered as the evaluation criteria for WEP model outputs Potential evapotranspiration in Penman-Monteith method with observed data, was used as a criterion for evaluating the estimated values of the WEAP model. Comparisons were made using statistical indices of RMSE, R^2 and NSE between the potential evapotranspiration simulated by the WEAP model with two climate datasets CFSR and CRU and those obtained by PM equation. The corresponding values were 0.76, 0.98, 0.87, 1.08, 0.97 and 0.7 respectively, which shows that model generates better ET estimations by using the CFSR data. Comparison between study stations using RMSE, R^2 and NSE, revealed that using the CFSR dataset in Howeyzeh station with metrics of 0.44, 0.98 and 0.97, respectively and CRU data in Howeyzeh station with corresponding values of 1.19, 0.99 and 0.80, provided best model estimations. Considering the climate of station based on extended de-Martone classification, the accuracy of CRU and CFSR datasets in estimation of potential evapotranspiration were acceptable in temperate Mediterranean, moderate semi-arid and temperate arid desert climates in the study basin.

Climate change has a significant impact on evapotranspiration (ET) as the one of the main components of the hydrological cycle. The main purpose of this research is to project the amount of potential evapotranspiration (ETp), under RCP scenario comparing to the baseline period using the WEAP model in the selected stations of Karkhe basin, Iran. The 1999-2019 and 2020-2100 years were considered as the baseline and future periods. The projected climatic variables by KIOST-ESM and MPI-ESM1-2-LR climate models under two climate change scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 and the observed data of the selected stations in Karkheh basin were used to estimate the  for the future and. According to the outputs of the WEAP model, the potential evapotranspiration will increase by 2100. The highest increase was projected under SSP5-8.5 scenario by the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model, with amount of 89 mm in June and by the KIOST-ESM model, 73 mm in May. The lowest values were equal to 26 and -0.5 mm in the months of December and September, respectively. Correspondingly, these values under SSP2-4.5 scenario were estimated as 85.4, 64.3, 23.3 and -4.6 during June, May, December and September compared to the base period, which the latter indicated a decrease for September comparing to the baseline. Also, the amount of potential evapotranspiration in regions with temperate Mediterranean climates will experience more variations comparing to those with arid temperate climates.