فهرست مطالب نسیم قباشی

One of the most important issues in the study and analysis of the economic structure of societies is the situation of the labor force, to the extent that in terms of policy-making and analysis of the performance of economic policies and programs, this issue has found a very special place. Most media outlets and policymakers rely solely on the unemployment rate to analyze the state of the labor market, while the unemployment rate is only one aspect of the labor market and its mere emphasis on it ignores other signs of the labor market. In addition to the unemployment rate, the level of literacy, income, wages and compensation costs of services and wages, the degree of being formal or contractual, income distribution and several other variables are also important in determining the status of the workforce.This article, for the first time, uses a fuzzy logic approach to determine the combined index of labor force status and unemployment in Iran. For this purpose, 8 basic variables of labor market in the period 1384  to 1398 have been used. The results of the combined labor force status index to fuzzy logic show that from 1984  to 1998, the labor force situation in Iran has been fluctuating a lot. Unemployment has been declining from 1986 to 1990. On the other hand, from 1990 to 1992, the trend of the combined unemployment index will be upward. Also, from 1993 to 1996, the trend of the composite index decreased and rose again.

The global tourism industry, which has invested in many countries for its profits, can be a substitute for countries exporting raw materials. This industry can have various developmental effects, such as currency earnings, re-distribution of income, job creation and economic prosperity and since it is closely related to other industries such as hoteliers, transportation, travel agencies, craftsmen, and restaurateurs. Today tourism is considered as one of the most important components and development indicators, as most countries make special investments in this sector. Due to its historical and natural status, Iran has a good basis for foreign tourism expansion. Issues that will help government officials and planners to maximize their productivity and profitability from foreign tourism is predicting tourist demand for years to come. In this regard, this paper, using the improved Gray Model GM (1, 1), seeks to provide a good prediction of the future tourist demand for Iran. The privileged feature of the GM's (1, 1) improved gray model is that it can be predicted with a very low number of data and in addition has a very low error. The results of the research show that tourism demand is increasing and by 2022 the demand for foreign tourism will reach 17.5 million per year. Also, comparing the results of GM (1, 1) model with ARIMA method indicates a lower error of GM (1, 1) model in predicting the number of foreign tourists. Considering the importance of predicting the tourism demand in planning and the characteristics of the GM model (1, 1) it will be useful, carrying out separate researches on the demand of foreign tourists from different countries. Since tourists in different regions have different cultures and desires, separate studies can be useful in more accurate planning.

Human development has been used as one of the most important indicators to measure countries' development in recent decades, and improving and improving the quality of human development will have a significant role in the economic development of a country. One way to increase human development is to improve and expand educational and health services. In this study, based on the Toda-Yamamatu causality relationship, we examine the relationship between educational spending and health with the Human Development Index and in order to obtain long-run coefficients of Johansen-Joselius method for the period 2002-2016 seasonally. The results of Toda-Yamamoto causality method showed that there is a two-way causal relationship between educational expenditure and health with human development index and also the results of Johansen-Joselius method showed that the effect of educational expenditure and health variables on human development index is positive.

The study of the effect of government size and good governance on the index of human development is very important and there are various theories in this regard. In previous studies, the relationship between government size and good governance with the Human Development Index has been examined separately. In this paper, good governance and the size of government are examined together in a model. In this study, we examine the relationship between good governance index and government size with human development index in Iran for the period 1996 to 2016. To measure good governance index, the average of six indicators presented by the World Bank for good governance was used, government expenditure to GDP ratio was used to measure government size, and literacy rate and urbanization rate were used as control variables. The Toda-Yamamoto causality method was used to investigate the causality relationship between the variables, the Johansen-Joselius test was used to obtain long-run coefficients and the ECM was used to obtain short-run correlation. The results of Toda-Yamamoto causality method showed that there is a two-way causality relationship between independent variables of research with human development index and also the results of Johansen-Joselius method showed that the effect of good governance variables, government size, literacy rate and urbanization rate on human development. it's positive.