پرویز داوودی

Economic policymakers consistently leverage monetary policies as a pivotal factor in achieving targeted economic goals, utilizing them as an influential driver for economic growth. On one hand, the advent of modern monetary tools and the widespread adoption of electronic money and payment systems can significantly influence the money supply, banking reserves, monetary base, the velocity of money circulation, and the multiplier effect. This, in turn, can shadow the impact of monetary policies on economic variables such as inflation and economic growth. On the other hand, banks play a crucial role in the development, expansion, and adoption of novel payment instruments, potentially affecting macroeconomic policies and variables. Hence, this study aims to examine the impact of electronic money and innovative payment instruments on monetary aggregates, taking into account the intermediary role of banks.

Therefore, in this study, to study the subject, panel data technique, simultaneous equations, vector regression model and data from 1370 to 1398 were used.

Based on the results, the expansion of electronic money and payment instruments lead to increased liquidity and inflation. Also, banks play a significant role in these variables by controlling the amount of payment instruments and innovations in them. On the other hand, the spread of e-money causes to achieve the targeted effects through exchange rate monetary policy and legal reserve rate. With less changes in these rates, but in order to achieve the goals of monetary policy applied through interest rates on account, more changes should be considered in these rates.

The output of this research is to provide a solution for implementing optimal monetary policy in view of the increasing use of new payment instruments and can help monetary policy makers in implementing effective policies.

Determining the monetary policy rule and identifying expansionary and contractionary policies is of particular importance to monetary policymakers. Monetary conditions index as an average weight of effective money transfer channels can play an important role in identifying expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. Therefore, in this article, the index of monetary conditions along with determining the amount of effectiveness of each of the channels of monetary policy in the process of monetary policy transfer is estimated. Such an index is the middle goal of the monetary policymaker in the medium term, and in this paper, the index is estimated based on the two variables of price target and demand, using the Johansson-Josilius error correction method. The results show that assuming inflation is targeted by the central bank and using the criterion of mean square error, the price equation to predict inflation is a more appropriate equation to determine the index of monetary conditions for the Iranian economy. In addition, the index designed in this study shows that the exchange rate channel has the highest weight among the channels affecting the price level in the Iranian economy.