کاظم بیابانی خامنه

Along with the increased trade integration of countries and the expansion of international production fragmentation, Global Value Chains (GVCs) amount to a huge part of trade today, and participation in a network of trade partners at downstream and upstream of the value chains brings about considerable potentials such as the improvement of the flow of knowledge and more advanced production technologies and techniques, particularly for developing countries. It would not be unexpected for GVCs and participating in them from an environmental aspect to have potential benefits for countries as well.
In this regard, the present study discusses the role that GVCs play in countries' environmental performance. For this purpose, a sample of 65 developing and 36 developed countries was investigated using spatial panel data econometrics, conditional convergence, spatial auto-correlation, and GVCs participation spillover and direct impacts for countries in the form of south-south, north-south, and north-north bilateral added-value trade. The results indicated that there was spatial auto-correlation and conditional convergence based on GVCs for all countries although they are more intense in the case of north-north trade in developed countries. Besides, participation in GVCs has spillover impacts on the trading partner countries if developed countries are included in the bilateral value-added trade but this impact is not statistically acceptable in south-south trade of developing countries according to estimations. Thus, establishing trading relations with developed countries through GVCs is a potentially beneficial policy to improve developing countries’ environmental performance.

​Global value chains are a complex product of the international fragmentation of production expansion that has revolutionized the production organization of the global economy and increased trade in services and intermediary goods. This new form of trade has allowed developing countries to benefit from international trade with specialization and comparative advantage in tasks, without having a comparative advantage in an entire industry. Given the increasing importance of global value chains, the goal of this paper is to analyze the position of the Iranian economy in the global value chains for 1990-2015. For this purpose, using the UNCTAD-EORA World Input-Output Tables, the indices of participation, position and length of value chain are calculated for the Iranian economy and its 24 sectors. The results show that the Iranian economychr('39')s forward integration into global value chains has increased, but its backward integration has reduced and Iran’s economy has moved to the upstream of value chain. Moreover, for a benefit from global value chains, Iran is pursuing a competing path, in polluting and energy-intensive sectors such as the oil, mining, petrochemical and metal industries, and its considerable capacity in the service sectors remains neglected.

The real exchange rate indicates the ratio of the price of tradable goods to the price of non-tradable goods and is one of the key indicators in the Iranian economy that has undergone significant leaps in recent years. In the present study, the effects of real exchange rate shocks on energy intensity (as one of the important economic-environmental indicators) of Iran's economy is investigated with recognising four mechanisms: price effect (relative energy price change), scale effect (change in economic volume), composite effect (change in mix of economic activities) and technical effect (change in productivity). By modelling the empirical model by Structural Vector Autoregressive method with data from 1974-2016 period, the results show that increasing the real exchange rate reduces energy intensity from the price effect and the scale effect channel, while its technical effect increases the energy intensity. Also, there is no significant composite effect. Finally, due to the dominant positive technical effect, the impact of the real exchange rate on the energy intensity was positive during the sample period, and as an outcome, the energy intensity would increase by decreasing the real value of the rial, ceteris paribus. This result can be due to the increase in the relative price of energy-efficient equipment and technologies (which are mainly imported goods, for both consumers and producers), as well as the increase in energy smuggling, which lead to increase the energy intensity.

The concentration of fossil fuel resources in specific geographic regions of the world and the strategic nature of fuel as a tradable commodity has created an intertwined and complex network of trade relationships among importing and exporting countries of fuel. In this research, using Graph Theory, the topology of the fuel trade network in 1995 and 2017 is analyzed and the position and significance of the main actors of the fuel trade were evaluated. The results show that the fuel trade network is a fully connected network with different growth patterns of trade clusters. It was also observed that countries with higher export share do not necessarily have a greater influence on the volume of fuel trade. While increasing the share of fuel trade, countries tend to trade beyond trade clusters. We also found that changes in trade clusters indicate a more regionalized trade in fuel. Finally, the results show a decrease in Iran's influence in fuel trade.

Expansion of foreign trade has important effects on energy intensity based on the structural conditions and economic nature of countries. In the present research the scale effect (the economy volume changing), the composite effect (the structure of economic activities changing) and the technical effect (productivity changing) resulting from the trade on the energy intensity of Iran economy, as one of the important economic-environmental indicators is investigated. For this purpose the empirical model of the research according to the economic theories by using the structural vector autoregression in 1353-1392 is modeled. The results of the model show that the trade expansion have positive scale and composite effects but negative technical effect on the energy intensity of Iran. Also the size of technical effect is bigger than the resultant of the two other effects. Therefore according to the results, increasing the volume of foreign trade has not energy intensive effect and there is evidence that energy intensity decreases from the total factors productivity channel (as an indicator of technical changes). Therefore the expansion of foreign trade in Iran is considered energy saving.

The main goal of this study is to identify the determinants of the energy intensity in the Iranian economy using annual data for the period 1974-2012. Changes in energy intensity can be seen as related to three factors including price, income, and autonomous energy efficiency improvements (based on technical progress). Moreover the role of energy quality in enhancement of total factor productivity and the reduction of energy intensity are also investigated. Hence, methods such as index decomposition technique, ARDL, 3SLS, and SVAR (Blanchard-Quah approach) models are used for these purposes. Energy intensity decomposition results show that energy consumption inefficiency is the most essential factor that forcing the energy intensity. Estimated results show that there is a linear positive relationship between energy intensity and real income per capita, and the income elasticity of energy demand is larger than unit. Growth in the industry share of production, increase in total factor productivity, and growth of the relative price of energy in long or short term reduce energy intensity. Considering the level of importance, factors related to the TFP, relative price of energy, structure of production, and income will have more impact on the energy intensity, respectively. The policy implication of this research is the energy relative prices reform is just necessary and not sufficient condition for the energy intensity reduction and this policy should be considered with other complementary factors aimed to the technical progress and the TFP improvement.

The purpose of this research is testing of existence explosive behavior and identifying periods with price bubbles in stock market of Iran in January 2008 until September 2014. In periods that multiple price bubbles occurs, process of time series change from random walk to an explosive behavior. In this cases most of the traditional unit roots tests has less power in detecting bubbles because It is necessary that unit root test is able to detecting changes in time series from I(0) to I(1) during bubbles and changing I(1) to I(0) during collapse. For this reason, in the present study Sup ADF and Generalized SADF tests that’s based on right tail augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test that recently Introduced by Phillips et.al (2014) was applied for testing explosive behavior. According to the results, existence of bubbles in the 15 months of samples, and specially July 2013 until December 2013 is confirmed.

Following the restructuring in electricity industry and competitive market debut in iran، risk control is one of the requirements of the economic management and effective activity for major actors in electricity market. This paper introduced portfolio theory and the mean - variance approach and the conditional value-at-risk for risk management in electricity market which are two major risk management methods in financial issues and also the application of this method in electricity market of iran is presented. Although there are major differences between electricity and power markets and other markets، but the studies show that using more generalized financial models، Appropriate Approach can be achieved for risk management in a competitive market.

Liquidity constraint of economic agents with disturbance in optimization leads to selection a non-optimal level of decision variables. In the energy economics literature also one reason of energy efficiency gap is related to credit constraint and capital market imperfections. Financial development by easing liquidity constraints also accelerates technological progress and could have a significant effect on energy efficiency. In present study the role of banks credits, as an indicator of financial development, on the energy efficiency of Iran’s economy in 1974-2012 was investigated. Results of the estimated models indicate that financial development through ease of credit constraints directly leads to decrease of energy intensity and therefore energy efficiency improvement, but this effectiveness does not via total factor productivity improvement. In the other words, in period of study financial development through improvement of technological progress does not lead to increase of Iran’s energy efficiency.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of credit provided to the private sector in the share of exports in production of an economy and its impact on the export performance and dynamics of firms in foreign markets. According to recent literature of international trade we expected with resolves credit constraints and ease of firms in financing، their performance in export markets Increased. Therefore، with using statistical data on 45 countries under the panel cointegration approach and Granger causality examined this relationship in macro-level، then with using the generalized method of moments investigating credits impact on firms'' export behavior and performance. The results indicate that increasing in credits increase the share of exports in production. It is also confirmed a positive impact on the number of exporters، number of destinations and firm entry rate into export markets. As a result، access to credits can be seen as a comparative advantage in international trade.

Ecology and environment have important role for human and in economic system and creating value-added in many products and services. for this porpuse Understanding The destructive factors for the prevention and protection of the environment is very important. Among the damaging environmental factors, production and consumption of fossil fuels is a majar factor. As a result of expanding clean energy production, environmental degradation can be much reduced because of the benefits of this type of energy. this study investigated the relationship between electricity production from renewable sources and carbon dioxide emissions in the period 1971 to 2009 using ARDL apporach and bounds test. The results show that an increase of 1 percent of electricity generation from renewable sources reduces the carbon dioxide 0.31and 0.07 percent in long and short-run. also EKC hypothesis in the long and short-run rejected in period of study.