مقالات رزومه دکتر محبوبه فراهتی

The present study aimed to examine the effect of export diversification on income inequality in Iran using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and data for the period 1984 to 2018. To this end, the Gini coefficient was employed as the income inequality index and non-oil export diversification was calculated using Herfindahl-Hirschman index and considering the export value of various export goods.
The results of the cointegration test show that diversification initially increases income inequality but after reaching a certain amount it causes to a decrease in income inequality. The results prove an inverted U-shape relation between income inequality and export diversification. Also, the empirical results indicate that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and income inequality, thus confirming the Kuznets curve hypothesis. On the other hand, the empirical results show that an increase in the size of the government leads to an increase in income inequality, but the inflation rate does not have a significant effect on inequality. These findings have important policy implications in order to improve export diversification to reduce income inequality.

Answering the fundamental question of whether technological progress can lead to unemployment has always been one of the most challenging issues in economics. In this regard, the present study investigates the effect of technology-based innovations (including process innovation and product innovation) on unemployment using panel data techniques (random effects model) and data from a sample of developing countries during the period 2008-2018. To this end, the number of patents registered is considered as an index of process innovation and the ratio of research and development (R&D) expenditure to GDP is considered as an index of product innovation. Moreover, GDP per capita, inflation and trade openness are included in the model as control variables. The results obtained from the estimation of the panel model show that both the growth of process innovation and the growth of product innovation reduce unemployment. In addition, the empirical results indicate that GDP per capita and trade openness have a negative and significant effect on unemployment, but the effect of inflation on unemployment is not statistically significant. Overall, the findings of this study have important policy implications for dealing with the problem of unemployment in developing countries through increased investment in R&D and stronger patent protection.

The consumption of fossil fuels and its effects have caused serious challenges and concerns in the fields of energy and environment. These challenges include issues such as fuel supply security, finite energy sources, environmental pollution, and problems related to global warming. In order to solve this crisis, the use of renewable energy is proposed as an effective solution to deal with concerns related to environmental sustainability and energy security. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of economic complexity on the consumption of renewable energy in Iran based on the autoregression technique with distributed lag (ARDL). For this purpose, the data of renewable energy consumption per capita, economic complexity index, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product per capita as a measure of economic growth, urbanization rate and carbon dioxide emission per capita during the period of 1368-1400 were used. has been The results of the co-accumulation test show , economic complexity leads to an increase in the consumption of renewable energy. Also, according to the results of foreign direct investment, economic growth and urbanization rate increase the consumption of renewable energy, while the per capita emission of carbon dioxide reduces the consumption of renewable energy .

Although various studies have investigated the impact of income inequality on the quality of the environment, the impact of income distribution on the consumption of renewable energy, which plays an important role in reducing CO2 emissions and improving the quality of the environment, has been understudied. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of income inequality (Gini coefficient) on renewable energy consumption in Iran. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach has been used to analyze the time series data related to the period 1983-2019. The results of the cointegration test show that the fair distribution of income leads to an increase in the consumption of renewable energy. Also, according to the results, economic growth, rate of economic openness, and rate of urbanization increase the consumption of renewable energy in Iran, while CO2 emission reduces the consumption of renewable energy in Iran. These results provide useful policy implications for managing energy consumption to improve the quality of the environment and reduce environmental pollutants.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of financial development in the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and data for the period 1361-1396. To this end, several indices of financial development have been aggregated into an overall (combined) index, using the principal component analysis method. The results of the cointegration analysis show that energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. Also, the effect of the interaction between financial development and energy consumption on economic growth is positive and statistically significant, which indicates that the effect of energy consumption on economic growth is not independent of the level of financial development; such that as financial development improves, the positive relationship between economic growth and energy consumption becomes stronger. In this regard, financial development, as a catalyst for modern technological progress, can effectively promote the improvement of energy efficiency. Accordingly, the higher the level of financial development, a unit increase in energy consumption leads to a greater increase in economic growth. In other words, financial development can intensify the positive growth effects of energy consumption. On the other hand, the empirical results show that an increase in the share of foreign trade in GDP enhances economic growth, while the effect of inflation on economic growth is negative.

Taxes, as an effective policy of governments to achieve their desired economic, social and political goals, can affect the welfare of the society by influencing the production and distribution of income. However, different types of taxes do not necessarily have the same effect on social welfare, as they may have different welfare effects in terms of sign and magnitude. Accordingly, the question arises as what effect the substitution of different tax items and, thus, the change in the tax mix will have on the level of welfare. In other words, how does an increase in the share of each tax in the total tax revenue and, conversely, a decrease in the share of each of the other taxes of the same magnitude affect social welfare? Generally, if two types of taxes reduce or increase the welfare of the society, substituting one that has a smaller or larger effect for the other can improve the welfare. On the other hand, if two types of taxes have opposite welfare effects, substituting one that increases welfare for the other will eventually improve the welfare. Therefore, the choice of an optimal tax mix is of great importance for tax policies. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the welfare consequences of substituting different types of taxes (including indirect tax, income tax, wealth tax and corporate tax) with the assumption of a constant government budget (i.e., budget-neutral changes in the tax mix) for Iran. This study employs an empirical model consisting of four regression equations, in each of which social welfare, measured by the Gini social welfare function proposed by Sen (1974), is considered as the dependent variable. On the other hand, the percentage shares of the four main tax categories in the total tax revenue that add up to 100 percent and a number of other key factors that potentially affect social welfare (i.e., inflation rate, the ratio of government consumption expenditure to GDP, and the degree of trade openness) are used as explanatory variables. However, one of the tax shares is excluded from each equation. In other words, three of the four tax shares and a common set of other potential determinants of welfare are included on the right-hand side of each equation. Given that the sum of the four tax shares is always equal to 100% and that the specification of the non-tax variables is the same in all the equations, the coefficient of each of the three tax shares included in each equation represents the effect of a one-unit increase (decrease) in that tax share and, conversely, a one-unit decrease (increase) in the tax share excluded from the equation on social welfare. The reason is obvious. Generally, each coefficient in a regression model signifies the change in the mean of the dependent variable per unit increase in the associated explanatory variable when all the other explanatory variables are held constant. On the other hand, since the sum of the four tax shares is equal to 100%, a one-unit increase (decrease) in one of the three tax shares included in each regression equation and the other two tax shares held constant mean a one-unit decrease (increase) in the tax share excluded from the equation. Finally, the regression equations are estimated separately using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the data for the period of 1982-2018. In this study, firstly, social welfare is measured using the Gini social welfare function for the period of 1982-2018. The results show that the welfare of society has generally improved over the period of 1988-2011, but, since then, it has been accompanied by some fluctuations. In the next step, the Phillips-Perron test is applied to determine the order of integration of the variables under consideration. The results of this test reveal that the maximum order of variables integration in each of the four regression equations is 1, satisfying the necessary conditions to implement the bounds procedure based on the Wald or F-statistics in testing due to the existence of a long-run relationship among variables (i.e., co-integration testing). The results show that the null hypothesis of no co-integration is rejected for each of the models. Thus, the estimated ARDL model is used to solve the long-run relationship between the variables in each model. The analysis then proceeds based on such estimated long-run relationships (coefficients). The findings indicate that a) a one-unit increase in the percentage share of the income tax in the total tax revenue and, conversely, a decrease in the percentage share of the corporate tax of the same magnitude will improve social welfare, b) a one-unit increase in the percentage share of the income tax and, conversely, a decrease in the percentage share of the indirect tax of the same magnitude will improve social welfare, c) a one-unit increase in the percentage share of the wealth tax and, conversely, a decrease in the percentage share of the corporate tax of the same magnitude will improve social welfare, and d) a one-unit increase in the percentage share of the wealth tax and, conversely, a decrease in the percentage share of the indirect tax of the same magnitude will improve social welfare. In addition, substitutions (1) to (4) have the most to the least effect on welfare, respectively. Finally, other substitutions (i.e., substituting income tax and wealth tax with each other and substituting corporate tax and indirect tax with each other) do not have a significant impact on the welfare of the society. This study examines the effects of substituting different tax items (i.e., budget-neutral changes in the tax mix) on social welfare in Iran using the corresponding data for the period of 1982-2018. The empirical results show that a budget-neutral substitution of income tax or wealth tax for indirect tax leads to an increase in social welfare in the long-run. In addition, the budget-neutral substitution of income tax or wealth tax for corporate tax can improve social welfare in the long-run. These findings have important implications for reforming the country’s tax structure in order to improve the welfare of the society.

The Kuznets curve hypothesis of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and income inequality has been widely tested for different countries. However, the factors influencing such a relationship that determine the position of the Kuznets curve have been neglected. One of these factors is financial development, which according to the financial Kuznets curve hypothesis, is inversely associated to the level of economic growth at which income inequality peaks (ie, the turning point of the Kuznets curve). This study empirically tests the financial Kuznets curve hypothesis in the Iranian economy using data for the period 1361-1397. To this end, real GDP per capita and Gini coefficient have been used as indices of economic growth and income inequality, respectively. In addition, several indices of financial development have been aggregated into an overall (combined) index, using the principal component analysis method. The empirical results indicate that in the long-run, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and income inequality, thus confirming the Kuznets curve hypothesis. In addition, the turning point of the Kuznets curve will be at lower level of economic growth when the level of financial development is higher. These findings provide evidence to support the long-run financial Kuznets hypothesis for Iran. Accordingly, it is suggested that economic planners and policymakers, in parallel with growth policies, improve the level of financial development, aimed at a more equitable distribution of income.

One of the most important characteristics of social capital is its power to influence and be affected by macroeconomic variables. One of these variables is financial market risk, which is affected by social capital. Fluctuations in financial markets can play an effective role in increasing or decreasing social capital, and social capital can also be effective in creating fluctuations or stability in financial markets. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between social capital and stock market risk in Iran. The method used in this research is vector autoregression (VAR) and the use of impulse reaction functions, based on which the interaction of these two variables on each other is measured based on data from 1989 to 2018. The results of long-term analysis of the model show that increasing social capital significantly reduces fluctuations in the stock market and creates stability in this market, and on the other hand, fluctuations in the stock market have a significant effect on reducing social capital. Therefore, strengthening social capital requires stabilization in financial markets, and stabilization in financial markets also requires strengthening social capital.

Understanding the nature of the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is one of the most important and controversial issues in the field of energy economics, which has attracted the attention of researchers and policy makers in the field in the last four decades. Considering the shadow sector of the economy, this study examines Granger-causality between energy consumption, (formal) economic growth, and shadow economy growth for Iran. To this end, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach is used to analyze time series data covering the period 1355-1395. The results of cointegration tests and estimation of error correction models indicate that there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in both short-run and long-run, confirming the feedback hypothesis. In addition, there is a positive unidirectional Granger-causality running from shadow economy growth to energy consumption and a negative unidirectional Granger-causality running from shadow economy growth to (formal) economic growth in both short-run and long-run. The findings of this study would have important policy implications for the management of energy consumption and the improvement of economic growth.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for the period 1355-1394. The results show that the substitution of company tax for income tax or commodities tax as well as the substitution of wealth tax for income tax, commodities tax, company tax or import tax reduce the size of the shadow economy. In addition, the substitution of import tax for income tax, corporate tax, or commodities tax leads to a decrease in the size of the shadow economy, while the substitution of commodities tax for income tax has no significant effect on the activities of this sector. The results of this study provide a good basis for adjusting the tax mix to reduce or limit the shadow economy sector in Iran.

The literature of shadow economy emphasizes the role of unemployment on the growth of illegal activities. Although many studies have been accomplished about the identification of effective factors on the shadow economy growth, but there are shortages in the context of the analysis of the direct effect of unemployment rate on shadow economy empirically. The purpose of this article is to study the effect of unemployment on shadow economy directly. In this regard, first of all the size of shadow economy in Iran over the period 1976 to 2015 using money demand relation has been estimated. Then the amounts of tax burden and unemployment variables in the changes of shadow economy have been measured. The results from estimation of money demand in the framework of Autoregressive Distributed Lag show that on average 16.35 % of formal production is shadow economy activities and the rate of shadow economy to GDP has increased. there are also a meaningful and positive relationship among tax burden, unemployment and shadow economy size. unemployment rate has significant direct effect on shadow economy and also, according to findings from the decomposition of size of shadow economy to its explanatory factors, on average in the period of under review, 7% of changing shadow economy in Iran is due to changing unemployment rate directly. JEL Classifications: O17, E24, E41, C19, O53

The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of revenue-neutral change in the tax structure on economic growth in Iran using data for the period of 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model has been proposed to analyze the effect of substituting different tax items for each other on economic growth in such a way that the total tax revenue remains constant. The results of cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show that a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to income tax or wealth tax increases economic growth in the long run. However, a revenue-neutral transfer of indirect taxes to corporate taxes reduces economic growth in the long run. Also, among direct taxes, a revenue-neutral transfer of corporate taxes to income tax or wealth tax as well as a revenue-neutral transfer of income tax to wealth tax promote economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the highest and lowest increase in economic growth correspond to the substitution of wealth tax for corporate taxes and of income tax for indirect taxes, respectively. The results of this study have important policy implications for tax structure reform in Iran's economy.

This study investigates the relationship between factor income distribution and aggregate demand in the context of the Post-Keynesian school, using data from Iran over the period 1346-1393. To this end, profit share and GDP growth are used as proxies for factor income distribution and demand growth, respectively. The results of the cointegration analysis based on the ARDL approach show that profit share and economic growth have a positive and significant effect on each other in the long-run. Furthermore, the results based on the error correction model show that, in the long-run, there is a bidirectional Granger causality between profit share and economic growth. However, in the short-run, Granger causality runs only from profit share to economic growth. The most important consequence of such results is that there is a profit-led demand (growth) regime for Iran in both the short-run and the long-run. Based on this result, the use of capital-intensive technologies instead of labor-intensive technologies increases the share of profits and thus leads to an increase in demand and economic growth. The implication of this finding is that the government should pursue policies to encourage and facilitate firms to adopt capital-intensive technologies, aimed at increasing the income of society as a whole. On the other hand, the government should also adopt effective policies to improve income distribution, increasing welfare.

The main purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between “direct and indirect taxes” and “inequality of income distribution” in Iran. So, we have used annual time series data of the direct taxes to GDP ratio, indirect taxes to GDP ratio, and the Gini coefficient during 1982-2014. The results of the threshold unit root tests with an asymmetric adjustment show that all variables have a unit root. According to the results of the threshold cointegration tests, the direct taxes have significant negative effects on the inequality of income distribution in the long-run. In addition, the results of the Threshold Error Correction Model (TECM) indicate that positive and negative deviations from the long-run equilibrium have different speeds of adjustment. In contrast, the findings show that direct taxes have significant positive effects on the inequality of income distribution in the short-run and such effects are asymmetric such that the response of the Gini coefficient to a decrease in the share of direct taxes is higher than its response to the increase in the share of direct taxes in GDP. However, the results indicate that indirect taxes have no significant effect on the income inequality in both short-run and long-run.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in the tax mix on income distribution in Iran using data for the period 1361-1395. To this end, an empirical model is proposed to analyze the effects of substitution of different taxes, including income tax, corporate tax, wealth tax, goods and services tax, and import tax, on income inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient). The results of the cointegration analysis based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show that (1) the substitution of income tax for corporate tax, wealth tax, or goods and services tax leads to a reduction in income inequality, (2) the substitution of corporate tax for wealth tax reduces income inequality, (3) the substitution of goods and services tax for wealth tax reduces income inequality, whereas the substitution of this type of tax for corporate tax has no statistically significant effect on income inequality, and (4) the substitution of import tax for income tax, corporate tax, wealth tax, or goods and services tax improves income distribution. These results provide a useful guide for policy makers to achieve an optimal mix of taxes aimed at reducing income inequality.

This research aims to determine whether the employment in Iran is affected by goods market based on post-Keynesians theory, or by labor market based on neoclassical theory. Using time series data on profit share, capital accumulation, unemployment rate and capacity utilization in a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this article evaluates the linkages among unemployment, income distribution and effective demand in Iran during 1967-2013. The results show that an increase in capital accumulation in goods market leads to significant decrease in unemployment rate. In other words, according to the post-Keynesians theory, unemployment in Iran is demand-induced. On the contrary, according to neoclassical theory, income redistribution in favor of profits (change of real wage in labor market) can reduce unemployment directly due to substitution between labor and capital or indirectly through increasing capital accumulation and/or rising capacity utilization. Therefore, in order to pass recession and to increase employment we can focus on goods market by increasing investment and income redistribution in favor of profits.

Is economic growth affected by Post-Keynesian Economists Theory? Is it possible to overcome economic recession in Iran using the Post-Keynesian approach? According to the Post-Keynesian point of view, the economic growth is either wage-led or profit led. In other words, the functional distribution of income determines the economic growth variation path. In this paper considering profit share, capacity utilization, capital accumulation, and net export/GDP ratio during 1967-2013, economic growth path in Iran is determined using Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) concerning the Impulse Response functions. The results show that increase in profit share increases accumulation, net export share of GDP and total demand or economic growth. Thus total demand regime or economic growth is profit-led. The result of this research approves the theoretical results of Bhaduri and Marglin (1990); concerning the income distribution effect on international trade in an open economic, the possibility of profit-led regime increases and may help to overcome the recession.

The main aim in this research has been to determining the growth regime in Iran based on an open economy concerning the Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) model. This model which has been widely used in Post Keynesian economics is a Kaleckian-Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which is based on effective demand. Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) concerning wage as a cost item as well as a component of aggregate demand have considered both profit-led and wage-led regimes to study the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand. Considering gross operating surplus, compensation to employees, consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, capacity utilization, profit share, nominal currency rate and net exports, the impact of variation of profit share on consumption expenditures share, investment expenditures share and net export share of GDP, was first evaluated in a single equation for 1979 to 2013. Then, the total impact of profit share on total demand was estimated summing up the partial effects. The results show that redistribution in favor of profits results in reduction of consumption expenditures share, increase of investment expenditures share, and also increase in net export share of GDP. Based on the results, the regime of domestic demand in Iran is profit-led, and due to positive impact of profit share on international competitiveness, the total demand regime is also concluded to be profit-led.

Fiscal illusion influences situation of government budget. In this paper first, has been studied possible of asymmetry in government budget using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) models. Then is examined hypothesis of fiscal illusion in Iranian economy. In this regard, has been specified an Error Correction Model (ECM) via the indirect tax revenues seasonal data from during (1380- 1392 ) that the results from estimation of model show i) there is a negative casual relate on the indirect taxes to government expenditures with three lags. This finding emphasizes the existence of fiscal illusion in Iranian economy ii) is confirmed the asymmetry effect of indirect taxes on government expenditures as there is fiscal illusion in situation of reducing indirect tax iii) since indirect taxes compared to direct taxes are less observable, reducing indirect tax due to fiscal illusion and misperception of people the public services and goods price lead to increasing demand for goods and services of public. Therefore, reduction of tax cannot apply as efficient tools in order to decline of budget deficit.

The main goal of this research is to estimate the effect of production structure on income distribution in Iran. So, the researchers have used Gini coefficient, value added of five sectors concerning Agriculture, Industry and Mining, Building, Service, and Oil sectors shares of GDP during 1978-2012. The results indicate that the transition from Agriculture to Industry and Mining, Services and/or Oil increases the income inequality, while the transition from Oil to each of the other sectors reduces income inequality. Transferring the value added share of Industry and Mining to Oil or Services increases inequality. The transition from Services to Industry and Mining has equality effects on income distribution. Transferring the value added shares from Building sector to each of the Industry and Mining and Agriculture has no significant effects on inequality. Concerning the results, value added share transferring from Industry and Mining, Services and/or Oil to Agriculture reduces the inequality consistent with Kuznets Hypothesis representing that the inequality in Agriculture sector is less than other sectors.