مقالات رزومه دکتر کیومرث شهبازی

The aim of the current research is to analyze the effect of economics education on financial literacy and decision-making of students with the moderating role of the socio-economic status of the family. In terms of practical purpose, the research is based on structural equation modeling according to the method of descriptive-correlation data collection. The statistical population studied is students studying in Urmia University in two faculties of Economics and Management and Literature and Human Sciences in the academic year of 2021-22 in the number of 1632 people, of which 313 people were selected by stratified random sampling method. Data collection was done using questionnaires of risk-taking, social norms, probabilistic thinking, financial literacy and socio-economic status of the family, and to analyze the data, firstly, the indicators of the research variables were analyzed using the analysis method. Multiple correspondence was calculated with XLSTAT 2019 software and then the desired model was estimated using generalized structural equation modeling with Stata 17 software. The findings indicate that economics education has a positive and significant effect on students' financial literacy and decision-making, and economics education through financial literacy has a significant effect on students' risk preferences, social preferences and probabilistic beliefs, and the moderating role of socio-economic status in relation to education. Economics and financial literacy were approved. The results of the present research support the effectiveness of policies promoting general and specific economics education and emphasize the distributive and egalitarian nature of such policies.

Financial instability causes uncertainty and a lack of transparency in the market and decision-making processes, ultimately leading to reduced investment and economic growth. Additionally, economic shocks alter investors’ expectations. This study relied on the seasonal data from 1991/3 to 2021/6 in order to identify financial shocks and their impact on macroeconomic variables such GDP, the debt-to-GDP ratio, and financial instability. The Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model was used to analyze the data. The findings showed that fiscal policies (debt-to-GDP ratio) reduce GDP. Second, positive shocks from financial instability lead to a decrease in GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio. In the first regime, positive fiscal policy shocks (increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio) leads to an increase in financial instability, while in the second regime, positive fiscal policy shocks can reduce financial instability.

This paper seeks to explore the nonlinear association between liquidity indicators and debt repayment capacity in relation to asset returns. For this purpose, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method was employed to examine the nonlinear impact of liquidity indicators (including the ratios of current assets to total deposits, total loans granted to total deposits, and total loans granted to total assets and debt payment capacity indicators (such as the debt ratio and interest coverage ratio) on asset returns from 2011 to 2020. The findings revealed a nonlinear effect of all calculated indicators on asset returns. The magnitude and manner of the independent variables' influence on asset returns varied at different levels, with noticeable distinctions in the effect before and after the threshold value of 1.0586. In light of these results, bank policymakers can strategically select an optimal liquidity level to enhance bank profitability based on asset returns.

globalization has different aspects including economic, cultural and political, Also the effects of globalization are different in developing and developed countries, And according to the theoretical point of view, the effect of globalization on economic growth varies over time. Therefore, in the present study, using the time-varying non-parametric panel data model and applying three different aspects of economic, cultural and political globalization KOF index, and considering the de facto and de jure effects of the mentioned index. It has been investigated the different effects of globalization over time on the GDP per capita of countries with high per capita income (28 countries) and middle per capita income (36 countries).The results of estimating the model used in this research based on the local linear dummy variable method for time-varying non-parametric panel data showed that by dividing globalization into de facto and de jure aspects determined Both de facto and de jure aspects of economic globalization during the period from 1980 to 2019 on average have led to economic growth in countries with high per capita income. But de jure aspects of economic globalization almost had a positive effect on the economic growth of countries with middle per capita income especially after 1995 to 2019 And economic globalization has a negative effect on the economic growth of these types of countries from an de facto aspect in most of the investigated years.

The purpose of this study is to examine the new aspects of the theory of learning through export. For this purpose, a sample consisting of 104 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in West Azarbaijan province was selected using random sampling method. This data is based on a questionnaire adapted from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS), which aims to collect innovation data from European enterprises and has been localized to reflect Iran's economic conditions. The questionnaire was completed by the managers of selected enterprises from June 2021 to the end of September 2021. Then, two diversity indices of Simpson and Shannon-Wiener have been calculated for the innovation diversity of enterprises. For the export variable, two indicators of export continuity and diversification have been used. Then, the innovation input intensity index, export restrictions, and individual and organizational characteristics of the enterprise manager were calculated using the multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) technique. Finally, the generalized structural equation model (GSEM) was used to estimate the desired econometric model. According to the results, the continuity of exports and access to more diverse export markets has a positive and significant effect on innovation diversity, but according to the estimated coefficients, conditions must be provided to facilitate the process of export continuity for these enterprises, then exporting to different regions should be included in their plan.

The Middle East is one of the regions with a wide range of ethnic and religious diversity. The high share of energy supply has also led to the concentration of regional and supra-regional powers in the region. In recent years, a large share of terrorist attacks has taken place in the Middle East, which in addition to human losses, has had a major negative impact on investment, tourism and economic growth in the Middle East. Therefore, identifying the effect of terrorist activities on attracting foreign direct investment of these countries in the economic and security policies of these countries is important and necessary. Foreign investors are often reluctant to be aware of all the risks involved. The risks posed by terrorist incidents are no exception to this principle, especially when the target of terrorist attacks is to intimidate a foreign investor. The risks of terrorism increase the cost of starting a business by spending a lot of money on security and insurance of economic activity, the cost of preventive measures, and the high wages of employees who are at risk. These costs reduce the expected performance of investment activity, and as terrorist risks rise above a certain level, the foreign investor will move its capital to a safer area. Political factors are slightly different from their conditions and function in terms of economic factors. The economic base of countries, especially developing countries, is very vulnerable in the face of unacceptable domestic factors. Political instability, as the main internal factor, has the closest reaction to the content of economic security in terms of effectiveness on factors of production. In developing countries, uncertainties that arise in the face of political instability and the perpetration of violent norms (such as terrorist attacks) lead to declining investment, the country's inability to successfully attract foreign investment, and capital flight. د گردد. The manifestation of terrorism is one of the indicators of political instability that is considered as one of the serious problems of the international community, especially in developing countries, and its consequences are broad on the development of global economic and political ties.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between terrorism and the inflow of foreign direct investment in the Middle East using spatial econometrics during the period 2008-2019 using the space autocorrelation model (SAC). Statistics and information required for the three variables of foreign direct investment, inflation rate and degree of trade openness from the World Bank website and for the variable of terrorism, from the global database of terrorism and for the index of political instability, property rights and democracy from The ICRG site affiliated with PRS GROUP has been extracted for the period 2008-2019 in 15 Middle Eastern countries.

First, to investigate the spatial dependence of Moran and Jerry C tests, the spatial dependence of countries was confirmed and based on the significance of Moran test, the research model was estimated in the framework of spatial autocorrelation. According to the research results, terrorist activities show negative and destructive effects on attracting foreign direct investment in these areas and this result is consistent with the results of other studies such as Panahi (2013) and Salmani (Salmani, 2014) is. According to the research results, the variables of degree of trade openness and democracy have a positive and significant effect on attracting foreign direct investment in the study areas, while the variables of political instability, property rights and inflation have an impact. Negative and significant on attracting foreign direct investment in the study areas, among which the number of terrorist attacks has the most negative impact on attracting foreign direct investment, as well as property rights index, political instability, degree of trade openness. , Democracy and inflation rate have the greatest impact on the economic growth of these countries, respectively.

Foreign direct investment is one of the main components of economic development and its flow has great effects on a country's economy. In other words, terrorist activities reduce the security and confidence of investors in countries exposed to terrorist activities and reduce the flow of foreign direct investment. On the other hand, the anti-terrorist security costs imposed on the economy reduce the economic potential. The economic effects of international terrorism can be analyzed in the short and long term. In the short run, terrorism leads to financial losses, losses and the creation of an insecure investment environment, and in the long run, international terrorism diverts capital resources by increasing national security spending and counter-terrorism activities. The transition to these costs and tax increases. To explain why spatial regression is used in this study, it can be added that the variable of terrorist activities in area j will not be affected only by internal factors in that area. When the number of terrorist activities in the neighboring country increases, it has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment to neighboring countries (spillover effects) and also if the terrorist activities are effective in region j, it indicates the phenomenon of spatial dependence that conventional econometrics is possible. Does not estimate and identify these effects and factors.

The Purpose of This Study Is to Investigate the Impact of Fiscal Policy On Economic Growth and to Estimate the Fiscal Multiplier During Business Cycles. For This Purpose, Quarterly Data of Iran's Economy Has Been Used During the Period 1993 To 2018. Three Methods Are Used to Estimate the Fiscal Multiplier. 1) Vector Auto-Regression Models Based On Blanchard and Perotti Method 2002, 2- Regression Based Method Introduced by Hall 2009 And 3- Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models. In The Present Study, Is Used the Second Method and Markov Switching Model, Which Is Based On Regression Specification, To Calculate the Fiscal Multiplier During Business Cycles. Therefore, By Specifying Five Different Models, Such That In Model Number 1, Direct Taxes, In Model Number 2, Indirect Taxes, In Model Number 3, Government Expenditures, In Model Number 4, Government Expenditures and Direct Taxes and In Model 5 Government Expenditures and Indirect Taxes  Are Considered As Fiscal Policy Tools. The Results Showed That Direct Taxes Perform Better in Effect of Economic Growth Than Indirect Taxes. Also, Among The Three Instruments of Government Spending and Direct and Indirect Taxes, The Largest Multiplier in The Recession and Boom Period Is Related to Government Spending and Direct Taxes, Respectively. On The Other Hand, The Government's Fiscal Policy Package, Which Contains Indirect Taxes and Expenditures, Works Better in Influencing Economic Growth Than the Package, Which Contains Direct Taxes and Expenditures.

Financial literacy and understanding its concepts is of particular importance for students; because the behavioral and financial decisions taken by them will have a significant impact on their financial and job status in the future. Based on this, the aim of the present study is to investigate the causal relationship between economics education and financial literacy, decision-making skills and entrepreneurial intention of students. In terms of purpose, the present research is applied, and according to the way of data collection, it is descriptive-correlational, based on structural equation modeling. The statistical population under study is 2733 students of technical and engineering faculty of Urmia University, of which 338 were selected by stratified random sampling. The research data collection tool is a questionnaire, and to analyze the data, firstly, the indicators of the research variables are calculated by the multiple correlation analysis method using the XLSTAT 2019 software, and then the desired model is estimated using the Stata 17 software.  The findings of the research showed that economics education has a positive and significant effect on students’ financial literacy, and economics education through financial literacy has an effect on students’ decision-making skills and entrepreneurial intention. Therefore, higher education decision-makers are advised to consider economics-related course units in the curriculum of engineering courses, and by teaching financial literacy, provide the basis for improving students’ financial-social decision-making and economic growth and sustainable development of society.

This paper investigates the effect of positive and negative shocks from the shadow economy and financial development on energy consumption during the period of 1974–2014 in the short and long term using the non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The ratio of liquidity to GDP has been used as an indicator of financial development, and the volume of the shadow economy calculated by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) has also been used, using a multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) model. The results show that the effect of positive and negative shadows of the shadow economy and financial development on energy consumption in the long and short term is asymmetric, and this asymmetry is that in the short and long term, a negative shadow economy shock has a greater effect than a positive shock. In the long term, the positive shock of the financial development has a greater effect on energy consumption than its negative shock. The negative shock of the shadow economy with an interruption leads to an increase of 0.04 in energy consumption, but its positive shock reduces energy consumption by only 0.02. Also, the relationship between positive and negative shocks of financial development on energy consumption is direct. Therefore, in order to control energy consumption, investing in improving financial development through improved technology will lead to reducing environmental pollution and saving energy consumption.

Experiential knowledge (export experience) about foreign operations and markets is a conductive force in the internationalization of companies. Therefore, the present research, emphasizing the role of export experience for start-up companies, examines the possibility of entering and exiting the export market and the growth of export volume. For this purpose, the export data of Iranian companies active between 2013 and 2017in the field of export food products were used. The Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) method was used to analyze these data. The research results show that being a start-up company causes an 11% increase in the probability of entering a new market, an 87% increase in export volume, and a 35% increase in the probability of exit. Therefore, according to the findings and the importance of the role of experience for new exporters, starting the activity in countries with a similar structure with a lower entry cost is recommended

The oil price and the real effective exchange rate (REER) are two important variables affecting OPEC countries politics and economy. Despite the fact that the existing theoretical literature confirms the relationship between oil price and the exchange rate (Dollar), there is no consensus about the direction of causality between these two variable. Also, statistical data shows that there is a synchronization between oil price changes and exchange rate. According to the existing literature and empirical literature, the question is whether there is a relationship between the price of OPEC crude oil and the real effective exchange rate in these countries. This research uses OPEC monthly data for the period of 01: 2003 to 11: 2017 and the AECM approach to examine the relationship between the real effective exchange rate in OPEC member countries and OPEC oil prices. To this end, the TAR and MTAR models have been used to examine the asymmetric cointegration effects between variables. Multiple structural breaks were also considered as dummy variables in the DOLS model to determine the long-term relationship. According to the findings of this study, there is a cointegration between variables and this cointegration has been confirmed in symmetric and asymmetric states. Dollar is weakly exogenous and the long- run relationship between the REER and oil prices is negative and asymmetric, but in the short run there is no relationship between these two variables.

In this study, the strategic interaction between traffic police and the driver is analyzed using game theory in the form of a two-stage dynamic game with incomplete information that the type of players is determined by nature. In the first stage, the police decide whether to fine or not, and in the second stage, the driver decides whether to pay a bribe or not. The driver compares the amount of the fine and the cost of the bribe. It can be concluded that the more lawful the police, the lower the bribe payment. Punishment of bribe recipients and payers can also prevent bribery and help eradicate possible corruption in this important organ of the country.

The exchange rate and its volatility are one of the most important parameters affecting the Iranian economy and have caused a shaky situation in the country in recent years. This study examines the impact of exchange rate and its uncertainty on Iran's economic growth process along with the control variables of oil price growth, inflation and its uncertainty, and liquidity growth using seasonal data from 1991-2018 and applying linear VAR and multi-regime nonlinear MRS and MRS-GARCH models. The results indicate that different results are obtained depending on the type of regime and econometric model. All multi-regime models showed that Iran's growth trend had different regimes, alternating between low and high regimes and often being in a low growth regime. The exchange rate growth and its uncertainty had a significant negative impact on growth in both the linear and nonlinear models. Due to the chaotic evolution of the exchange rate, nonlinear models provide more realistic results according to Iran's economic situation. Control variables also have different effects on economic growth depending on the type of equation and econometric model. Policy makers are recommended to avoid applying cross-cutting measures to solve Iran's daily problems, which create an uncertain environment for economic agents, and to take measures to reduce the negative consequences of the exchange rate and its uncertainty by stabilizing the macroeconomy and unifying the exchange rate.

This article investigates the effects of oil price shocks on different quantiles of real exchange rates of selected OPEC member countries (Islamic republic of Iran, Nigeria, Algeria and Saudi Arabia) from January 1993 to December 2018 with quantile regression approach. The result indicates that positive and negative oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on different quantiles of real exchange rates affected by market conditions. Rising oil prices at lower quantiles of real exchange rates, because of central bank intervention effect, and at the medium quantiles because of increase in import of industrial and semi-industrial goods lead to USD appreciation against the currency of Iran, Nigeria and Algeria while at upper quantiles has no meaningful effect on real exchange rate of these four countries. Also, falling oil prices only lead to deprecation of SAR against USD at lower quantiles of exchange rate. Ultimately current result confirms the Balassa-Samuelson effect for all of these countries.

One of the main goals of each country is to provide the food needed by society, which can be achieved through growth in agriculture. In this regard, the present study has tried to investigate the common stochastic trends between the value added of the agricultural sector of Iran and its major partner trading in the period of 1967-2015. To achieve this aims, the Gonzalo and Granger method, which is used in the framework of the multivariate coherent model of Johansen and Juselius (1990), has been used. The results show that there is 2 Correction and two common stochastic trend of agricultural value added in the studied countries, which reflects the complete lack of long-term integration between this group of countries. . Accordingly, in order to achieve sustainable growth in agriculture, the government will expand its agricultural trade with China by reducing tariffs on agricultural imports and subsidizing agricultural exports, so that the domestic agricultural sector will grow from value-added agriculture to the global agricultural sector.

In recent years, optimal use of fossil fuels, reduction of environmental pollution and exploitation of renewable energy is one of the most important issues in the policies of different countries, and as you know, Iranchr('39')s electricity industry is dependent on fossil fuel consumption strongly, which causes environmental pollution. The aim of this study is to obtain the optimal combination of electricity production plants in despite the uncertainties in the required components in decision making, in order to minimize environmental pollution and production costs. In this study, two-stage stochastic programming and interval parameter linear programming have been used to minimize uncertainty in electricity generation planning and fossil energy consumption. From one side, stochastic programming with considering different scenarios and from another side interval parameter instead of pointwise data minimize uncertainty in this study. Also, in obtaining the results, the data of the electricity industry report of West Azerbaijan province in 1394, 1395 and 1396 have been used. The results of this study show that the amount of production of combined cycle power plants and hydropower plant in this province is less than the optimal amount, And the amount of gas power plantchr('39')s production in this province is more than the optimal amount. It is also necessary to plan for the development of capacity in the Khoi Combined Cycle Power Plant.

This study investigated the asymmetric effects of financial instability shocks on economic growth and monetary policy shocks on financial instability in Iran. For this purpose,data 1991:3 to 2017:1 and nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach has been used. For this purpose, three models have been estimated. In the first model, the asymmetric effects of fiscal instability shocks on economic growth are studied and in the next two models, the asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks are investigated. The results of the first model indicate positive financial instability shock has a negative effect and negative shock has a positive effect on economic growth. Also, in the second model, the results indicate that a positive interest rate shock has a negative effect and a negative interest rate shock has a positive effect on financial instability. The results of the third model estimate indicate that a positive Liquidity growth shock has a positive effect and a negative Liquidity growth shock has a negative effect on financial instability. The results of the effect of government spending on financial instability in the second and third models are different due to the application of different monetary policy tools in the two models, Therefore, it can be said that the effect of government spending on financial instability can vary depending on the type of monetary policy. The results of the Wald test show that the effects of financial instability shocks on economic growth and the effects of monetary policy shocks on financial instability in the short run and long run is asymmetrical. Also, the effect of Liquidity growth on financial instability is asymmetric in the short run but symmetric in the long run.

This paper uses the non-linear auto-regressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to examine the short- and long -run effects of the negative and positive shocks of the shadow economy on financial development in Iran over the period 1974 - 2015. For this purpose, the ratio of liquidity to gross domestic product is used as an indicator of financial development. The shadow economy includes all market-based production activities that are deliberately hidden from government officials due to the escape or avoidance of payments, such as taxes and social security contributions. In this study, the MIMIC (multiple indicators and multiple causes) calculations by Piraee and Rajaee (2015) are used for estimating the shadow economy. The results show that the effects of positive and negative shocks of shadow economy on financial development are asymmetric in the short- and long-run. This asymmetry means that in the short- and long-run, the negative shock to shadow economy is more effective than its positive shock. Therefore, in order to maintain the current level of financial development, the government can monitor size of shadow economy through strict control of illegal activities in the short-run, identify the illegal activities, and reduce them in the long run‎.

In this study, we examine entry into complementary good and service markets in a foreign country with network effects. We used a three-stage game theory model which in the first step, the entrant chooses the entry strategy, in the second stage, firms determine the prices by forming a profit function and in the third period, consumers decide which goods to consume. The results show that entry occurs and entrant attract a majority of consumers, if the fixed costs of direct entry are lower than the export fixed costs, the complementary degree is higher than the export variable costs and the network effects are large enough. The entrant can also choose the direct entry strategy by implementing the assumptions which expressed in propositions and captures the foreign market by considering the network effects and large complementary degree. JEL Classification: D4, L1, C7, F1, P33

Governments and firms in accordance to their duties, obliged to inevitably contracts with Individuals and legal entities, especially in auction and tender process. Since, the law of conducting tenders and auctions is lacking efficiency and has major objection, therefore, this has led to the dissemination and development of areas of corruption in these contracts (through collusion). In this paper, in order to eliminate collusion, the Nash equilibrium points have been obtained by designing a static game and solving it using game theory. The results show the maximum of the ceiling prices, As well as the minimum of floor prices at which the bidder chooses to eliminate collusion between the two tenderers. At last, it is recommended that the governments and bidding firms use the results of this research and neutralize collusion by setting ceiling and floor prices.

The main purpose of this paper is to study the correlation and interaction between the values added of the agricultural sector, production, mining and services in Iran, as well as the analysis of the common stochastic trends among them during the period 1959-2015. Johansen and Yusilius (1992) and Gonzalo and Granger's approach (1995) were used to achieving this goal. The results show the existence of a cointegration relationship and three common stochastic trends between the growth of the studied sections, which reflects the complete absence of long-term integration between these groups of variables. The results of the analysis of common stochastic trends also indicate that during the examined period, the value-added of different sectors shows a strong reaction to the trends mentioned. Finally, given the weak convergence between the values added of different sectors, the government can achieve economic development by simultaneously investing in different sectors (Balanced on the Growth Theory).

From the perspective of international relations scholars, especially in the liberal tradition, economic cooperation such as trade and investment play a key role in promoting peace and preventing war. Accordingly, the present article, while pointing to objective examples of international relations using "game theory" shows how "economic cooperation in the form of international investment can "While maximizing the benefit of investors, it prevents war and the development of peace". In this paper, using game theory and providing a static game between players, Model the game between investors and countries (with the same economic power) has been dealt with according to each player's possible strategies. To this purpose firstly considered two countries that indifferent to one another and in the third case, there are three countries, one of which is enemy and the other indifferent. Given the equilibrium obtained in all three cases the overall result is that Investor by forming portfolios and investing in different markets and countries achieve the best outcome (Nash equilibrium) by building interaction and peace.

Today, one of the most important threats to manufacturers of high quality signs is the presence of manufacturers who offer the same signs with low quality and lower price. In this article, two main manufacturing companies are considered, one is the main manufacturing company and produces both types of signs (both high quality and low quality) and the other company is only producing low quality signs. Then the game between these two companies is designed and the consequences of this game are reviewed and strategies are provided for the producers of high quality and low quality signs in the field of price. The results show a direct relationship between the price of a low quality token and the quality of a high quality token. There is also a direct relationship between price and quality of high quality tokens. On the other hand, the relationship between the quality of the low quality production mark and the production costs of the high quality mark is inverse. Also, the relationship between low quality production mark and unfavorableness due to the purchase of low quality goods (λ) is inverse. One of the most important results obtained in this research can be said that the welfare effects of the producer of high quality signs will increase if they enter the market of low quality signs.

Many firms in the economy are government-owned and the prices of products or services are the same for consumers.In this situation, consumers’ problem will be that how to get to the firm via the shortest path (minimum cost). On the other hand, the problem for a government-owned firm or a monopoly firm that is providesfacilities include the oil and gas, electricity, water, telecommunications,  and  etc,  can be raised where it would be located in the city in order to have the least possible distance for the all consumers.In this paper, the first question with Dijkstra's algorithm and the second question byusing least square of the distancehave been answered. The results show that consumer can find theshortest path to achieve thedesiredfirm and the shortest possible distance from all available agencies by Dijkstra's algorithm. Furthermore, optimal locations of firms  dependon the number of consumers and how they are distributed.