مقالات رزومه سید امیر عظیمی

This paper examines the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, a model with 3 pairs of behavioral equations (export, import and government expenditure) and 14 definitions Equation is constructed. An oil price shock is applied in two different scenarios and their effects on the variables is examined. In the event of a temporary oil shock shown by a 50% increase in oil prices in year 1384, the monetary base and liquidity in the initial year is increased and in the second and third years decreased less than the baseline, finally at the three years, the variable moves near the baseline. Thus a temporary oil shock for the first year only increases the monetary base and liquidity, and the effect vanishes after three years. The impact of oil shocks on government expenditure is positive and government expenditure increases. The effects of a long-term oil shock at a scale of 50% annual increase in oil price for 1384 to 1389, leads to increase in monetary base and liquidity over the baseline for the entire period. This means the long-term upward shocks in oil prices have permanent effects on monetary variables that lasts over the entire period.

In this study، to find the relationship between the government budget deficit and trade balance in Iran، a structural macro-econometric model is set up. In the model، government consumption expenditure increased by 20 percent annually during 2001-2010، so the government budget deficit increased relative to the baseline. The financing methods of budget deficit and relevant effects on trade balance were analyzed in 4 options. The results indicate that government budget deficit increases by adopting expansionary fiscal policy in all options. If the budget deficit is financed by borrowing from the central bank (the first option)، it will raise the monetary base and finally worsen the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If the budget deficit is financed by selling participation bonds to the public (the second option)، it will reduce aggregate demand and finally improve the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If direct taxes and government spending are increased by the same amount (the third option)، private consumption will decrease; and trade balance and non-oil trade balance will be deteriorated compared to the baseline. Finally، if the budget deficit is financed by the withdrawal of foreign currency reserves (the fourth option)، oil revenues will increase، as a result the trade balance will be improved and the non-oil trade balance will be exacerbated compared to the baseline.

The main objective of this thesis is to review and compare the effects of two ways of government financing, increasing the exchange rate and borrowing from the central bank, on macroeconomic variables, production and inflation. The simultaneous equations and 3sls estimation method are used. The results of the model estimation and its simulation using data among the years 1357 to 1388. Indicates that government financing through the increase of exchange rate results in production compared to borrowing from the central bank. The results obtained suggest that the government financing through the increase of exchange rate has more inflationary influence than borrowing from the central bank.