مقالات رزومه دکتر آزاده اربابی سبزواری

The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in evapotranspiration and to predict the agricultural sector in the northern part of Zahedan station, the central part of Iranshahr station and the southern part of Chabahar station, taking into account climate change. Also, the effect of management on planting date on reducing the negative effects of this phenomenon was investigated.After testing the LARS-WG model, the climatic components in three meteorological stations of Zahedan, Iranshahr, Chabahar and under three scenarios A2, A1B and B1 in HadCM3 model until 2060 with the base period of 1987-2020 were scaled. Based on the root mean square error statistics and model efficiency coefficient, the LARS - WG model had sufficient capability in simulating minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation parameters.  Significant increase in temperature reduces the length of the growing period in different stages between one to 20 days, which will reduce the water requirement of wheat between 4.45-0.05.  Although postponing the planting time intensifies the effect of climate change and reduces the length of the growing season by 10 to 23 days, it will increase the water requirement between 1.29 and 774 cubic meters per hectare.  Due to these climatic conditions for future periods, farmers are not able to control the climatic conditions, but proper management and change in factors such as crop yield and optimization of cultivation pattern in accordance with the climate of the region and awareness of current and future climatic conditions.  It can play an important role in reducing the harmful effects of climate change on the growth and yield of agricultural products and sustainable food production, and comprehensive planning and resource management is an important step towards sustainable development.

This paper studied the climatological parameters in six synoptic stations in zone of southeast Iran (1987-2020) and during two periods of 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 using General circulation model (GCM). Accuracy of LARS-WG model for simulating climatological parameters was evaluated through MAE، RMSE، R2، NSE. Crop Water Requirement was defined through determining appropriate planting date and Length of growing season with temperature and growing degree days (GDD). Due to increase in max temperature, Climate change decrease the length of growth period in various phases as 1-10 days which it causes delay in cultivation date under climate change condition and shorten the length of planting season as 15-28 days. Correct management of some factors such as crop variety and optimized cropping pattern according to the regional climate and knowing the climate condition of current -future could mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on the growth and yield of agriculture crops

Background and objective :

Urban security is one of the important challenges for urban managers and planners. In this regard, the passive defense approach in urbanization and residential constructions is considered by urban management as a way to cope with natural and man-made disasters and manage the crisis. The present study aims to develop a conceptual model for the architectural compatibility of buildings in Eslamshahr County, Tehran, Iran, with passive defense principles by assessing the compatible and non-compatible elements to provide essential strategies. 

Method:

 This is a quantitative-qualitative study. The participants were 30 experts in the field of urban security in Eslamshahr. The data analysis was done using statistical tests such as binominal test, one sample T-test, exploratory factor analysis, and strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) technique.

Results :

The results indicated that the constructions in Eslamshahr are not so compatible with the passive defense principles; the level of compatibility was low to moderate.

Conclusion :

The conceptual model was based on four main categories, including stimulating factors, developing factors, leading factors, and supportive factors. The relations between these categories were set according to the structure of a car wheel, which can be the basis for using stable and safe architecture in constructions.

Today, various approaches have been proposed in the field of urban management, of which good urban governance is one of the most prominent. Governance is an alternative to traditional management and governance methods. In this regard, the present article has tried to identify and cluster the obstacles affecting the realization of good urban governance in Tehran metropolis with the method of structural analysis. Theoretical data was prepared by document method and experimental data by survey method based on Delphi technique. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on purposeful sampling. 50 factors in 8 dimensions of transparency, accountability, public participation, effectiveness, consensualism, legality, responsibility and justice have been processed by structural interaction analysis method in MICMAC software. The results of the research from the analysis of mutual effects indicate the dispersion of barriers in a complex and intermediate situation of effectiveness and effectiveness; The obstacle clustering system indicates the concentration of effective and dual obstacles (risk and goal obstacles). The factors of concealment and lack of transparency in the hidden and open decision-making of city managers, the low level of honesty of the officials, the lack of awareness of the citizens about the plans and decisions of the municipality, the lack of transparency in the policies of the municipality's income and expenses, the lack of coherence and Weakness of the legal order in the laws and regulations related to the control and guidance of urban development, lack of trust and ambiguity in the accountability of city officials, weakness of the municipality's performance in the process of planning, decision-making and action, fragmentation in management and decision-making within the municipality, non-implementation Regulatory rules and regulations, control by the relevant authorities, resistance to admit mistakes and management mistakes among city officials, lack of continuous participation of the municipality in solving urban problems, unequal treatment of illegal activities in the municipality, weakness in fulfilling promises. Given by the municipal officials, the lack or weakness of public supervision and sectoral approach and the lack of systemic approach to the city administration have the most direct impact on the non-realization of good governance in the metropolis of Tehran.

In order to have a correct understanding of the oil economy factors affecting the spatial developments of Mahshahr port, it is necessary to know the key driving forces affecting it. This article was done with the aim of studying the drivers of the oil economy affecting the spatial developments of Mahshahr port.

This descriptive-analytical study was carried out based on the new methods of explanatory future research in 2021 in Mahshahr port, Iran. The drivers under study were extracted using the method of documentary studies and evaluated and measured using the opinions of 20 experts based on the Delphi method. In data processing, structural interaction analysis method was used in MICMAC software.

The increase in population growth due to immigration, the existence of incompatible urban uses (railways and oil depots), the increase in open space and urban fragmentation, the inefficiency of construction plans, programs and policies, the dominance of private means of transportation, population growth, the inefficient use of urban land, the increase Rural-urban migrations, political division and lack of integration in the decision-making and decision-making system and differentiation of land uses were the key drivers of the oil economy influencing the spatial developments of Mahshahr port.

The dispersion pattern of the drivers of the oil economy affecting the spatial developments of Mahshahr port shows the state of an unstable system.

District 15 of Tehran as one of the suburbs of the city in the past, despite the numerous gates, has been one of the main places for travelers to enter the city of Tehran. It is obvious that the main and continuous feature of the growth and formation of the region has been related to its marginal and gateway status. Insofar as this matter has played a major and definite role in determining the identity and urban image of the region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the urban edge of the 15th metropolitan area of ​​Tehran and its impact on crisis management. The statistical population of this research is 60 people, of which 20 are experts of the General Directorate of Privacy and the rest are experts, experts and specialists in the research. The studied criteria include physical, cultural, managerial and social factors with specific sub-criteria that these sub-criteria are coded and then analyzed in MIC MAC software as MDI, MPDI, MII, MPII matrices. Finally, it was found that the most potential direct and indirect effects, potential indirect and indirect effects, are related to the user with rank (496). The lowest direct, potential direct effects and potential indirect and indirect effects are related to the sexual structure of the population of the range (230). Also, the highest direct, potential direct dependence and indirect, potential indirect dependence in historical periods are related to the natural bed with the number (486) and the lowest is related to population

In any society, when searching for a sustainable development solution, good governance is always presented as a vital tool to advance sustainable development and is included as a vital element in sustainable development strategies. The issue of urban governance has become one of the main topics of urban research in the past few years. In this regard, the present article has evaluated the indicators of good urban governance in Tehran. This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology and practical in terms of targeting. Using field data (questionnaire) statistical tests of factor analysis, Pearson correlation, path analysis and Analytical Hierarchy (AHP) and Vicor methods were used. The statistical population of this research is citizens, officials and expert experts in the form of simple random sampling and snowball. The obtained results showed that the 2nd district of Tehran with a value of 0.121 has the lowest distance from the ideal point and with a value of 0.104 the lowest amount of regret (dissatisfaction) in the first place, and on the other hand, district 16 with the lowest value of Vicor (0.021) is in the last place. Other findings of the research show that the distribution of good governance indicators in Tehran metropolis has a downward trend from the north to the south.

The city development strategy is based on governance and good management, bankability, competitiveness, and livability. The relevant strategies, especially livability, emphasize improving the quality of life. This study aimed to measure the quality of life in the city development strategy in Borujerd city.

This descriptive-analytical survey was conducted in 2020-2021 in Borujerd city. First, the dimensions affecting urban development indicators were prepared through document study and research background, and evaluation of expert opinions. Field investigations were carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the opinions of 383 residents of Borujerd city, who were selected through simple random sampling, were measured regarding the indicators of the quality of urban life. Data were analyzed using the single-sample t-test. Then, strengths and weaknesses were measured using the Delphi technique and evaluating the opinions of 30 urban planners and specialists. Data were prioritized using a combination of SWOT and ANP methods.

The indicators of urban development were not in a favorable condition, and only the livability index was in a better condition than other indices. The relative and absolute average of the weaknesses (0.140) was superior to the strengths (0.138), and the opportunities (0.147) to the threats (0.127).

In addition to better understanding the requirements, needs, and facilities, city managers should acquire the trust of citizens to provide the ground for improving the quality of life, which is one of the most important components of the urban development strategy to overcome the challenges faced by contemporary cities.

The phenomenon of global warming and climate change may not only lead to climate change, but may also cause major changes in the tourism situation of the region and its sustainability, which will have far-reaching consequences and will destabilize the industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of vulnerability to climate change and resilience of tourism destinations on the sustainability of tourism development. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method. The sample size corresponded to the statistical population was 185 people. The required data and information were collected in the form of library and field. Pls software was used to test the research hypotheses. The results showed that vulnerability to climate change has a negative effect on the sustainability of tourism development and resilience of tourism destinations has a negative effect on vulnerability to climate change. The results of this study also showed that the resilience of destinations has a positive effect on the sustainability of tourism development.

This climatehascharacteristics and behaviors that distinguish it from the surrounding areas.Gradually, living and inanimateelements adapt to those conditions.As a result, any sudden change beyond the normal range and its normalbehaviorcauses theclimateof biologicalelements tobe stressedand stressed. These abnormalities maybe caused by climatechangeorlocal or human factors.In this study, we have tried to first examine the fluctuationsor changesin the temperature of the region in each of its parts in the last three decades.Temperature anomalies were alsoassessed for sea level in the same three decades. Synoptic patterns lead to anomalies in the temperature (hot and cold advection) are in cold season. In this study, atmospheric data of 31 stations from northwestern to western synoptic stations of Iran were used. To create a database with the same statistical database, statistical periods from 1989 to 2018 are arranged. To detect climate change, the software for detecting climate change, provided by the (Meteorological Organization), has been used. The statistical period studied is divided into three ten-year statistical periods and the changes in these three statistical periods were calculated for all cold months. In another part of the work for the colder months of the year in three decades, the status of sea level temperature anomalies was also examined using NCEP / NCAR site maps.The standardized Z index was used to identify the predominant synoptic pattern.The final selectioncriteria anomalies station high frequencyof 50% of the stations has been studied.So if the abnormalities are more frequent in the 15 stationandwas elected as a representative on the end of 202 days in the cold period has had this feature. Also,sea level data were extracted in the same range for 202 days during a script.The data of sea level equationwas converted to numerical data by scripting in Grads software environment, amatrix with dimensions of 203* 253 was analyzed by rotation with array in SPSS environment by factor analysis method, and by quarry ax method.Eleven factorsjustify 95.40percent of climate behavior in the cold months. Finally, after examining 11 factors, 4 dominant patterns were identified in this region.The results of this study showed that the temperature difference in northwestern Iran with southwesternand Middle Western is decreasing. The temperature difference betweenthe southandthe north in thefirst decade (1989-1989) was between 7 and 9 degreesCelsius, dependingon the month.in the second decade (1999-2008)this difference decreased to 5.5to 6.5 degreesCelsiusand in thethird decade(2009-2018) it decreased to 5 to 6 degrees Celsius.This means that the temperaturerangebetween the north and south of the country is declining.This means that the temperature range between the north and south of the country is declining. Among the colder months,January had the highest temperature fluctuations and April had the lowest temperature fluctuations.If we exclude January, in other months, a total of three decades in the northern part of the study area, especially in Ardabil province, the trend of increasing temperature changes and vice versa in the southern part of this increasing trend has had a slight slope. But in January, the phenomenon fluctuated sharply. In the second decade, compared to the first decade, there was an increase in both the northern and southern regions, while in the third decade, compared to the second decade, there was a decrease in both regions. Temperature anomaly maps prepared for the colder months of the year showed that from January 4 to April in thefirst decade we saw negative anomaliesthroughout the region.So in the first decade, compared to the previous decade, we have faced a negative anomaly throughout the region. But in the second and third decades, anomalies have been positive inalmost the entire region. This phenomenon has accelerated in the third decade.In November and December, the anomalies fluctuated sharply.In the first decade, the northwest was negative in both months, but the south had a positive anomaly.In the second decade, the situation was completely reversed and the northwestern region was associated with a positive anomaly and the southern part with a negative anomaly. But in the third decade, anomalies in almost the entire region tended to be positive and harmonized with other months.The results of visual examination and factor analysis on abnormal temperature days showed that four consecutive patterns of temperature abnormalities in the western and northwestern regions of Iran during the cold period. Therefore, four patterns are the cause of temperature changes and the general temperature of the region is outof its normal conditions in the cold period. As can be seen in the two models,the air temperature in the region is warmer than usual during this season of the year. This means that the temperature in the region is rising unusually and the general trend of the region is disrupted.In both cases, in addition to warming or rising temperatures, precipitation has also occurred. It is emphasized that not every precipitation system is associated with a warming. As can be seen, in both models, along with the warm rise of Saudi anticyclone, it plays a key role in hot advection. Two consecutive patterns have also been associated with cold weather, causing temperatures in the region to drop significantly. So the abnormal days that accompanied the cold. Or the temperature in the area has dropped unusually. Siberian high-pressure systems and Saudi and immigrant anticyclones have played a major role. In other words, the combined pattern of these three anticyclone systems has played a major role in cold advection and air stability in the region. In general, the temperature in the region is rising, and this upward trend is more intense in the northwest than in the south.The main systems that create abnormal days in the high-pressure Siberian and immigrant areas for cold advection and the Saudianticyclonehaveplayed arole in perpetuating these cold eruptions.Inother words,thecold weather has been advection to the region by two Siberian and migratory systems, and the anticyclone of Saudi Arabia in the higher layers has caused the reliability of this cold wave.On hot days, during the cold period of the year, Saudi Arabia's cyclone and Sudan's low pressure haveplayed a majorroleinhotadvection

Thermal temperature events for a period of 20 years (2001-2020) were extracted based on the data of synoptic meteorological stations in Mashhad, Sabzevar, Quchan, Neishabour, Bojnourd and Gonbad Kavous and the atmospheric patterns leading to these events were investigated. In this period, a total of 158 cases of cold waves and 1,014 cases of heat waves have been recorded in selected stations in the study area.From a statistical point of view, after using the Sen’s slope estimator nonparametric method, it has been shown that there was no significant increase in the intensity of cold waves for none of the stations and the highest trend of decreasing the intensity of cold waves is related to Mashhad station by 0.045 degrees Celsius per year. The number of cold waves during the statistical period has increased in Quchan, Neishabour and Gonbad Kavous stations and has decreased in Mashhad, Sabzevar and Bojnourd stations. The highest decreasing trend of heat waves is related to Quchan station by 0.056 degrees Celsius per year and no sharp increasing trend has been observed for any of the stations and at any of the significant levels. The number of heat waves during the statistical period has increased in Sabzevar, Neishabour and Gonbad Kavous stations and has decreased in Mashhad, Quchan and Bojnourd stations. From the point of view of synoptic analysis, strengthening of two high pressure systems (Siberia and Zinc in Europe) and expansion of orbital tabs of these two systems and creating high pressure belt in latitudes about 35 to 55 degrees north and altitude banding pattern of 500 hPa Northwest of the Aral Sea and the impact of the study area on the active tilt canal can lead to a noticeable decrease in temperature and the occurrence of a cold wave, which is associated with northeast winds of 850 hPa. In contrast, the spread of the European high-pressure system to the northeast of the country, along with the region's impact from the high-altitude subtropical ridge centered on North Africa and increasing the geopotential height of 500 hPa compared to the long-term average of the same period causes heat waves and temperature increases.Thermal temperature events for a period of 20 years (2001-2020) were extracted based on the data of synoptic meteorological stations in Mashhad, Sabzevar, Quchan, Neishabour, Bojnourd and Gonbad Kavous and the atmospheric patterns leading to these events were investigated. In this period, a total of 158 cases of cold waves and 1,014 cases of heat waves have been recorded in selected stations in the study area.From a statistical point of view, after using the Sen’s slope estimator nonparametric method, it has been shown that there was no significant increase in the intensity of cold waves for none of the stations and the highest trend of decreasing the intensity of cold waves is related to Mashhad station by 0.045 degrees Celsius per year. The number of cold waves during the statistical period has increased in Quchan, Neishabour and Gonbad Kavous stations and has decreased in Mashhad, Sabzevar and Bojnourd stations. The highest decreasing trend of heat waves is related to Quchan station by 0.056 degrees Celsius per year and no sharp increasing trend has been observed for any of the stations and at any of the significant levels. The number of heat waves during the statistical period has increased in Sabzevar, Neishabour and Gonbad Kavous stations and has decreased in Mashhad, Quchan and Bojnourd stations. From the point of view of synoptic analysis, strengthening of two high pressure systems (Siberia and Zinc in Europe) and expansion of orbital tabs of these two systems and creating high pressure belt in latitudes about 35 to 55 degrees north and altitude banding pattern of 500 hPa Northwest of the Aral Sea and the impact of the study area on the active tilt canal can lead to a noticeable decrease in temperature and the occurrence of a cold wave, which is associated with northeast winds of 850 hPa. In contrast, the spread of the European high-pressure system to the northeast of the country, along with the region's impact from the high-altitude subtropical ridge centered on North Africa and increasing the geopotential height of 500 hPa compared to the long-term average of the same period causes heat waves and temperature increases.

The aim of this study is to investigate the trend of spatial and temporal changes in the future extreme temperature of Iran. The data used include daily data of minimum temperature and maximum temperature of CCSM4 model during the basic period of 1986-2005 and the future period of 2006-2050 under scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5 in Iran. The results of studying the trend of warm and cold extreme during the basic period showed that in general, warm extreme has a positive and increasing trend and cold extremes has a negative and decreasing trend in Iran. The results of investigate the trend of future extreme temperature in Iran during the two periods of 2006-2025 and 1428-1404 showed that in the first period and based on scenario 4.5, the trend of cold and warm indicators in most parts of iran have the same conditions as the base period. In the second period, these conditions can be seen with limited changes in the spatial distribution of decreasing trends as in the first period. These results indicate an increase in temperature changes and consequently an increase in extreme events, especially extreme events in different parts of Iran.

The aim of this article is to investigate the components of efficient and development to create sustainable and sustainable revenues of municipalities in the field of protection and services for resilience and organizational survival. The importance of research is that one of the most important concerns of city managers is achieving sustainable development. It is an urban city and due to the significant growth of urbanization, the demand for goods and services in cities has increased significantly and in this regard, meeting the needs of its citizens requires sufficient financial resources. The importance of trust in the issue of providing and creating financial resources of municipalities is the sustainability of revenue sources so that these revenues should not be a threat to sustainable urban development in addition to reliance and sustainability and is a descriptive and qualitative research method based on scientific and research sources It has been prepared and compiled for the municipalities and the results show that the municipalities have a continuous income in the field of services that can receive tolls and income from services, but are more subject to costs in the field of protection.

With the increasing population of urbanization, the new socioeconomic, physical, and environmental challenges of cities have complicated their management. In other words, the increasing of expansion, and complexity of problems in cities as well as becoming aware of the incompetent conventional system and top down decisions-making have led to a trend toward systems, in which all of decisions are made through cooperation between urban beneficiaries. Due to the many changes in cities, management was not feasible in the traditional way and insisting on continuing the process of traditional management did not cover the interests of all stakeholders and not creating spatial justice. Therefore, todays a procedure which is considered to be the most effective, the least expensive and the most constant is "Good Urban Governance". It can be defined as a procedure of managing municipal activities with cooperation and engagement of three sectors; public, private and civilized society in order to create a sound city with high level of living capabilities and constant development. A prominent feature of democratic governments is good governance which cannot be realized without democracy. Good governance results in a growing trust between citizens and governments, and ultimately public satisfaction. Among the new components that have influenced or changed the structure of today's cities, is the development of information and communication technologies, which is discussed with different titles such as electronic cities, digital cities and virtual cities. Now, a new concept that has been proposed in recent years with the focus on the use of information and communication technology for the quality development of urban life and its sustainability is the theory of creating smart cities. Therefore, moving towards creating smart cities is inevitable and necessary. What plays a constructive role in the development of infrastructure and the creation of such a city is good urban governance. The aim of this study was to identify factors affecting urban good governance in the creation of smart cities. 

The present inquiry is a descriptive-analytical study with an applied purpose. The data and information of this research were collected in two ways, library and survey, that in the survey method, the questionnaire tool was used that validity and reliability were confirmed by experts in this field. Collected information were classified and analyzed using SPSS software and using t-test, decision models such as VIKOR. Therefore, according to the purpose of examining the feasibility of indicators of good urban governance in urban areas of Tehran and the relationship between good urban governance indicators and intelligence, the indicators of good urban governance have been studied and evaluated by the residents of the 2nd and 10th districts of Tehran and smartening by the experts and officials of Tehran Municipality. The statistical Society of this research is the residents of District 2 (as a privileged area) and District 10 (as a less privileged area) in Tehran that by Using Cochran's sampling, the sample size of 384 (262 people from District 2 and 122 people from District 10) was calculated. In addition, using the snowball sampling to investigate the relationship between the indicators of smart city and good urban governance, 60 (40 officials and 20 experts), officials and experts have been selected.

The results indicated that in region 10 of Tehran, good urban governance indexes are not in desirable condition. The average desirability of good urban governance indicators in district 10 of Tehran is less than average, therefore, this region has an unfavorable and unfavorable situation of governance. The results of the analysis of the VIKOR model for ranking the regions showed that region 2 is in a better position compared to region 10. Therefore, region 10 (as a less privileged region) should be the first priority to improve the conditions for the implementation of good urban governance. According to the results, the average of all indicators in region two (except the lawfulness index) is higher than the theoretical average (number 3), so that this region has the highest value in the equity index (with an average of 3.48). Regarding region ten, it should be noted that only in the transparency index, they received a higher average than the theoretical average, and these averages were general and were obtained without taking into account the weight of the index. Since these indicators are not of equal importance, it is necessary to determine the importance or relative weight of each of them for a more accurate evaluation. In the present study, hierarchical analysis (AHP) has been used to determine the weight of the indicators. The weight obtained from the indices showed that the response index (with an index weight of 0.182) and the transparency index (with an index weight of 0.177) have the highest weight, respectively. 

During the last several decades, various approaches have been proposed in the field of urban management that good urban governance is one of the most prominent of them. Now, this model is the best way out of the impasse of poverty and underdevelopment of cities. However, urban management in developing countries, including Iran, faces major constraints and challenges. On the one hand, these restrictions are associated with the growth of urban population and the rise of urbanization, and on the other hand, it faces the traditional structure of local institutions that are still not prepared for structural change. Considering the increasing amount of complexity of urban management problems in Iran, is increasing day by day, the application of the principles of good urban governance is an undeniable necessity. Despite the extensive political, economic, social and technological changes in the country and, consequently, increasing the level of public awareness and knowledge, a new concept in recent years with the focus on the use of information and communication technology for the quality development of urban life and its sustainability Is the theory of creating smart cities. But it should be noted that the necessary precondition for creating an intelligent society is a change in the body of urban management, in other words, moving towards good urban governance. In this regard, the present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the indicators of good urban governance and the relationship between intelligence and indicators of good urban governance in the city of Tehran. For this purpose, two districts 2 and 10 of Tehran were selected. The findings showed that Region 2 is in a better position and Region 10 (as a less privileged region) is the first priority to improve the conditions for good urban governance.

This study has been compiled with the aim of evaluating and measuring climatic conditions and factors in tourism processes with emphasis on tourist satisfaction, along with climate data and tourism climate indicators, to evaluate the results of these indicators, due to natural and human differences between destinations. Tourism and special characteristics of tourists, changes in the process of assessing the climate for tourists, apply and provide new results. For this purpose, Bandar Chabahar city in Iran was selected as a case study for this evaluation. Chabahar port is considered by domestic and international tourists due to its important political, economic and tourism situation and special climatic conditions. To achieve this goal, the Comfort Climate or Tourism Climate Indicators TCI, PMV and CIT were selected for combined evaluation over a period of 30 years (1985-2014). The results showed that according to the CIT index, all months and periods of time in a day and night in the port of Chabahar, is desirable or acceptable for tourists, which was a little far from reality. In assessing the climatic conditions, this study By applying minor changes in the CIT index and combining the results of the PMV index with the level of tourists' satisfaction with different thermal sensation conditions, different results were achieved, which showed the greater impact of field data on expert opinions. Due to the different attitudes of tourists towards the residents of destinations and their desire to gain specific tourism experiences, the desirability of the climate for tourists may

In recent decades, increase of population and development of industries, the occurrence of drought and increasing water consumption has put pressure on the province's water resources. This situation has many environmental and socio-economic consequences. Therefore, the aim of present study is to monitor drought and evaluate its economic and social effects. The present research is applied terms purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms survey. The statistical population in this study includes experts and elites the study area, that finally 80 elites in the province were selected by census method. SPSS Amos and GIS software were used analyze data. Based the results obtained from the processing of precipitation data and TRMM satellite images during the period 1998-2019, it was found that there was no significant difference between frequency of occurrence drywet periods in Tehran province. However, in the last years the study period, rainfall anomalies in Tehran province are more prone to drought, and the last 7 years, three widespread and relatively severe droughts have occurred. In general, it can be said that the phenomenon of drought in Tehran first caused psychological and social tensions and injuries (with the highest factor load of 0.894) with development this phenomenon, the ground for creating a crisis production and livelihood (factor load 0.850) becomes. Following these effects, another phenomenon called poverty and misery appears (with a factor load of 0.698) and finally these factors underlie the migration of individuals and changes in population structure (with a factor load of 0.733) at the origin and destination.

Since the scientific study ofdrought provides a basis for reducing the effects of this climatic phenomenon,the study of drought in Iran,especially on the basis of multivariate indicators that use other climatic parameters to estimate drought in addition to rainfall is very important.In addition, this study is based on network data with high spatial and temporal resolution such as GPCC,CRU, TRMM.Due to climate change in recent decades and increasing water demand in different parts of the country and comparing it with the results of station data is doubly important and necessary.This research,in terms of purpose,is an applied research.In terms of the nature of data,this research is a quantitative research that presents results by collecting data and analyzing them with quantitative methods.To achieve the purpose of this study,network data along with statistical methods have been used. At first,CRU networking data with spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 ° was obtained from NOVA site and was extracted for Iran using the capabilities of GIS and MATLAB software during the study period.Thus, first,the received CRU data was transferred to MATLAB software and the relevant area in Iran was separated from the rest of the world.Then, using the programming index in MATLAB environment,SPEI index as a new index that besides to precipitation considers the effects of temperature and evapotranspiration in estimating drought.Drought and wet periods are calculated in season time scales and drought characteristics were extracted in different parts of the country.Finally,the results of drought calculation using GIS and office software environments were shown as maps,graphs and tables.Based on this, the whole country was divided into 7 clusters. In order to identify the spatial distribution of different drought classes in the country,the variables of each cluster were zoned in GIS software.For monthly drought assessment,the selected drought index is fitted to 50-year rainfall cultivars of 621 points of the CRU database nationwide,and considering the value (-0.5 and + 0.5) as the normal situation,the monthly conditions are checked from January to March.The drought situation of each of the cold months of the year is described below.Drought is one of the natural disasters that compared to other natural disasters in terms of magnitude, severity, duration of the event, regional expansion, casualties,economic losses and long-term effects.It is one of the most important climatic phenomena that strongly affects all aspects of human activities.Studying the characteristics of drought and predicting it can be effective in reducing the damage caused by it.But as we know,one of the most important phenomena of climate and climatology is drought,which causes their intensity, continuity and expansion on human activities, transportation, energy, environmental issues and the activities of living things.Considering that the main source of fresh water supply for agriculture is domestic and industrial consumption and can lead from mild effects of personal life to major disasters at the national level.The general trend of rainfall in winter is decreasing.As in the 90s, most of the rainfall anomalies of this season in the country are positive; However,with the onset of the 2000s,the incidence of dry periods has increased, and this situation has continued almost to the end of the period under study. On a monthly scale,the most stable rainfall regions of the country are the first (northwest) and third (north and northeast) clusters; Because these clusters have the highest frequency of normal periods in most months. Instead,the fifth (south) and seventh (southeast) clusters have the highest fluctuations and the lowest frequency of the normal period. For most months of the year,the frequency of dry periods is higher than wet periods, and it is only in December that in four clusters, the frequency of wet periods is higher than dry periods. In November, in three clusters (second, third and sixth), the frequency of wetlands is higher. The fifth and seventh clusters have the highest frequency of monthly droughts and the second and sixth clusters have the highest frequency of monthly wetlands. The duration of dry periods is more in most months of the year than wet periods. The most severe duration of the drought occurred in April and May, in the seventh and fifth clusters, respectively. In these two months, the continuation of drought in the two mentioned clusters has lasted more than 10 years, while the continuation of wet periods in most years and clusters of the country is 2 periods and the maximum duration of wet period in most months of the year is 4 periods. In the central regions (fourth cluster) and western (second cluster) the most continuous wet periods are observed. However, sometimes in the fifth dry cluster we see wet periods of 4 years. In terms of severity, a significant percentage of droughts and wetlands in the country in all clusters are mild and moderate, and severe events of low frequency and very severe events are usually accidental. In general, it can be said that the intensity of drought in the country has been more than wet season, because most wet season are mild, but in some droughts, especially in the fifth to seventh clusters, the frequency of the middle class is noticeable and even in some months is higher than mild droughts. In addition, intensity of droughts is more common than intensity of wet periods. The frequency of intensity of droughts in January, February, April and especially in December is much higher than intensity of wet periods. Spatially, intensity events of drought and wet season mainly belong to the arid regions of the country, especially the two clusters 5 and 7. In terms of time trend, the rainfall is decreasing in most months of the year and the frequency of droughts in recent years is more than wetlands. In October and November, of course, the precipitation trend has a slight upward slope and wet periods have been observed more in recent years. Therefore,the occurrence of drought has significant effects on economic,social and agricultural issues.And this requires studies to be done in this area and with proper management and careful planning to avoid potential risks and losses.

Geotourism is one of the important types of ecotourism. Assessing geotourism spaces and its prioritizing can be effective in present suitable geotourism landscape. Geotourism is defined as tourism that sustains or enhances the distinctive geographical character of a place—its environment, heritage, aesthetics, culture, and the well-being of its residents. Cities and villages have an important role in measuring the priorities and values of tourism land spaces. By making decisions and engaging urban institutions and facilities and services, urban tourism can be effective in providing the desired landscape of tourism, and can also promote sustainable development and sustainable protection. Damavand region, having rivers, waterfall and lake water processes, is one of the geotourism destinations. In this article, assessment and prioritizing of geotourism spaces and sites related water processes of Damavand region based on role of urban management is done in order to present suitable landscape for geotourism management. Therefore, the necessary data was prepared based on the theoretical and expert studies as well as the assessment done by experts. The criteria were weighted by Atrophy model and the sites were prioritized using COPRAS model. The obtained results show high suitability of Lar Lake and Haraz Abask River as first priority of geotourism. Also, the city of Pleur and Rino and its urban management have been able to play an effective role in strengthening some services, capital and facilities of tourism land, but have also brought threats in return.

Natural disasters are a phenomenon that neglect will cause irreparable damage. Extreme levels of flood danger were announced in at least three places. Baqershahr, as one of the important cities of Rey city, due to the location of several active faults and seasonal and permanent rivers around and inside it, as well as the existence of Behesht Zahra Grand High School, has a high vulnerability to natural and physical hazards, high population density. Also, the existence of the main fault of Rey Garmsar and rivers in the north of Tehran, the existence of aqueducts and high worn-out texture, is the main necessity and purpose of this realization. First, the research findings include the criteria of the natural index, which include sub-criteria of faults, slopes, rivers and aqueducts and physical criteria with sub-criteria of worn-out texture, urban thoroughfares, density of building units and special location, all of which are determined by urban planning experts. Urban and civil planning is measured in ANP network decision making software, pairwise comparison, and then interdependence between standard and sub-criteria. Finally, fuzzy maps are output in the software of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software so that the map can be mapped. Operations of production and to assess and analyze the vulnerability of housing in Anj Be. With the produced maps, the danger points in the area of ​​Baghershahr city are shown. Finally, it analyzes physical and natural indicators and how to manage the crisis in Baqershahr city. By obtaining the impact factor, the valued maps and zoning of critical factors are determined. The final result shows that the high-risk area in the west and southwest of Baqer Shahra is located in the path of fault, slope, worn texture and river. Maps are considered risk a.nd management zoning factors.

The growth of informal and irregular settlements, as islands of poverty in the margins and within cities, is a problem due to the elimination of low income strata from the planning system and not considering them actively as target groups in policy making and is one of the reasons for environmental degradation, weakening of urban services and the descent of existing infrastructures. The aim of this study was to investigate different aspects of marginalization effects on environmental indicators. The research method is descriptive- library. In fact, researchers use reviewing the theoretical and background foundations of the research to investigate different aspects of the impact of migration and marginalization on the environment of Tehran. After reviewing the research literature, the dimensions of improving marginalization and its development are educational facilities, medical facilities, sports facilities and cultural facilities.

Drought is a climatic phenomenon that affects different parts the environment during its continuation. Most drought assessment systems are mainly based on rainfall data. short statistical period of many data, insufficient density of stations and poor quality of ground rainfall data, reduces the ability show the spatial pattern of drought. the current paper aims at monitoring drought in Tehran province using rainfall network data. Thus, monthly precipitation data six synoptic stations in Tehran province and monthly precipitation data of TRMM satellite with spatial resolution of.25 × .25 degrees during the period (1998-2019) have been used. The results show that output of the 12-month SPI index for TRMM points is in good agreement with synoptic stations and the drought characteristics at different stations are consistent with different points of the TRMM network. In 36% of the study period, the rainfall in the province is in normal range and in 64% the rainfall is not normal. In all parts of the province, frequency dry and wet periods is equal and each of which with 31.8%. In terms of severity, most precipitation anomalies in Tehran province are mild and moderate, so that the frequency of mild drought is 18%, moderate drought is 9% and severe drought is about 4.5%. Extremely severe drought has not occurred in any part of the province in the last 22 years. Also, 2001, 2008, 2013 and 2014 are the most severe periods of widespread severe drought in the province, with most areas suffering from moderate to severe drought.

In the vast country, Iran, which has been widely used in the latitude and diverse altitudes, we see the effects of climate change. One of the most fundamental factors in the structure of the planet is climate, and undoubtedly nature, man and all the preventive life of the widespread influence of the climate. Knowledge of climatic zones and influential elements in each region based on climatic indicators and elements has long been the focus of many scientists. Perspectives are less common in literature and climatological texts; This is while environmental planning and analytical analysis is a systematic attempt to look to the long-term future in the field of climatology; One of the most important challenges today and in the future is the issue of rising temperatures. In general, the study of scientific studies and reports shows that the climate and temperature pattern is changing and this issue needs to be studied and paid more attention to the importance of water resources and agriculture in the study area and tried to study the climatic conditions of the province Sistan and Baluchestan is covered.

The study area in the present study is the southeastern part of Iran, Sistan and Baluchestan province. In this study, meteorological data from synoptic stations include daily precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and sundial for the period 1987-1920. The mentioned data have been obtained from the Statistics and Information Center of the Meteorological Organization of the country. -LARS WG is a generator of meteorological data. The LARS - WG model was designed by a scientist from the Rotamstead Center for Agricultural Studies in the United Kingdom. Using data monitored to study the climate behavior of stations in the statistical period, as well as daily network data of future total circulation models, Modeled future courses daily. The core of this model is the use of the Markov chain, which has been used repeatedly. Performance of LARS - WG model Using error measurement indices and ensuring the suitability of the model, future period data were generated using general turnover model data. In this study, statistical tests were used to evaluate the performance accuracy of the LARS-WG model using NSE, MSE and R2 criteria. In this study, the maximum temperature in the base period and future periods based on two scenarios, RCP2.6 (commitment of countries to reduce greenhouse gases) and RCP8.5 (if not adhering to reducing greenhouse gases) was followed by Using maximum daily temperature data of six synoptic stations in the southeastern part of Iran based on the threshold of the 95th percentile, among the available data, heat waves greater than or equal to three days were identified for each station. Since air temperature determines potential evapotranspiration, the ionp relationship is based on the average total annual rainfall relative to the average evapotranspiration.

To compare the simulated and observational monthly averages, the distribution chart related to the mean of each of the variables in the whole period under study in the southeastern part of Iran was drawn and the correlation coefficient of each was calculated. The distribution diagram of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation related to the southeastern part of Iran is shown in Figure (3). The observed and generated distribution diagrams show the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sundial of the southeastern zone in the period 1987-2019. As can be seen in the above figures, the results show high correlation coefficients. In general, in the southeastern part of Iran, the correlation coefficients between modeling and observational values in the period under review are significant at least at the level of 1%. Becomes. The least changes are related to the coastal station and the most changes are related to the land stations. Changes in the mean annual temperature difference of the southeastern part of the country during the statistical period with a long-term average of 30 years were investigated; In this case, temperature data show a positive trend in the region and in general, temperature changes in the southeastern part of Iran are evident and these changes can be named as an indicator of climate change.

The HadCM2 model shows that the average annual temperature is 22 degrees Celsius much lower than the observed average, with a difference of -2, and has good accuracy for predicting future climate change. The seasonal average temperature increases in six stations and the amount of rainfall in the stations increases towards winter and spring; Most of the heat waves belong to Zabol station and as we go from north to south, the number of these waves has decreased. The spatial displacement of climatic zones in three consecutive periods indicates an increase in climatic drought coefficient and the expansion of climatic territory. Finally, the results show the trend of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in the coming decades in the southeastern regions of Iran.

Increasing consumption of chemical compounds in industrial processes has led to the accumulation of pollutants, including heavy metals, which are very costly and difficult to absorb from the environment. The purpose of this applied research is to investigate the level of cadmium, chromium and lead contamination in the soil of western Tehran using pollution, enrichment and land geoaccumulation indices and pollution factors.

 In order to evaluate the concentration of heavy elements in the study area, sampling was done in all three areas of District 21 of Tehran Municipality and 10 samples from each area with three replications and a total of 90 samples were prepared in the spring of 2020 and the concentrations of cadmium, lead and chromium in Soltani acid extract was measured using an atomic absorption spectrometer. The present study is one of the descriptive-analytical researches and its data are of primary type which has been prepared by two methods of documentary and field studies.

The accumulation of these elements has been created in the surface soil. The mean concentrations of the studied elements in zones two and three were higher than one. The topsoil of area three had higher amounts of lead, cadmium and chromium than the other two areas, but these values were not significantly different from area two. The average amounts of lead, chromium and cadmium for the region were 38.1, 9.1 and 1.6 mg/kg, respectively. The enrichment index in zones two and three was more than one, but the numerical value of this index was less than one in zones one. Geoaccumulation index values for lead element in all three areas showed non-contaminated to slightly contaminated class and for cadmium and chromium showed non-contaminated class. The numerical value of the contamination factor, except for cadmium and in zone one, in other cases is one and more than one, which indicates the high concentration of these elements compared to the background concentration in the study area.

As a result of industrial and traffic activities, the accumulation of excess amounts of man-made elements in the study area has been created.

Natural disasters are a phenomenon that neglecting them will lead to irreparable damage. Baqershahr as one of the important cities of Tehran province due to the presence of several active faults and seasonal and permanent rivers around and inside Venice. Behesht Zahra large sanctuary has a high vulnerability to natural and physical hazards, the presence of dense urban fabric, the main fault of Rey Garmsar, rivers north of Tehran and worn texture are factors that lead to the study of effective factors in crisis management. Due to the nature of the research method, it is descriptive-analytical. First, the research findings include the criteria considered in crisis management, including the existence of storage system, specialized equipment and appropriate operational organization, specialized manpower, information system, operational effectiveness and information system for residents, infrastructure and communication facilities. These factors have been done by urban planning experts, urban planning by questionnaire information in the study area and the analysis of factors and variables has been done by multi-factor analysis, variance, regression and Pearson test. In fact, factors and coefficients in storage criteria And support equal to 16.2 percent, specialized equipment and the existence of a suitable structure of operational organization 11.65 percent,

Iran is one of the developing countries in which the number of urban poor areas has increased in the past decades with the increase in the rate of urbanization and the spread of urban poverty. So that currently, planning for housing low-income people and organizing urban slums, especially in big cities and their surrounding areas, is one of the important issues of urban development in the country. The aim of this research is to investigate the spatial factors and its effect on practical zoning for passive defense in the metropolitan areas of Tehran. In terms of purpose, the present research is applied, and in terms of method, it is part of descriptive-analytical research. In this research, the desirability of urban poverty in the form of two indicators of physical poverty and passive defense poverty has been investigated using a one-sample T-test. Prioritization of the research indicators has been done using the ANP network decision-making model. ARC GIS software has also been used to display and spatially evaluate urban poverty at the regional level. The final result indicates that the status of the index of physical poverty and passive defense poverty is unfavorable compared to the average of the society, and in terms of the spatial index of poverty, which had the highest score in the paired comparisons of the criteria, the 1st district of Tehran Municipality (the highest rank) and so on They are located in the 2nd and 3rd regions. The weak areas in terms of defense poverty are 18 (the lowest rank), 17 and 19 respectively.