فهرست مطالب abbas memarnezhad

The banking system Soundness is very important for maintaining economic, social and political stability and ensuring sustainable development at the national and international levels. Therefore, revealing the factors affecting the health of banks and considering these factors in the design of economic policies is important. Several factors affect the financial health of the banking system at the company level and the country level. which have a different effect depending on the type and nature. In this regard, studies show that the performance and banking system Soundness is largely dependent on the environmental conditions of the macroeconomic environment with contradictory influence. According to this issue, in this study, the uncertain effect of macroeconomic variables and bank-specific factors on the health of the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 2001-2021 was investigated using the panel data method and fixed effects And with the benefit of Eviews software.The results of the survey have shown that corporate governance, economic growth, bank size and quality of supervision have a negative and significant effect on the financial Soundness index of the banking system. In contrast, the uncertainty of macroeconomic variables and banking competition have a positive and significant effect on the financial Soundness index of the banking system.

The purpose of this article was to investigate the replacement of traditional money with virtual currencies and its effects on macroeconomic variables with the approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. For this purpose, the data of the period 2018-2019 with seasonal frequency have been used. In the model designed in this article, it is assumed that due to the use of virtual money, a substitution between virtual money and traditional money will happen in people's asset portfolio. In this study, the shock caused by the price and volume of Bitcoin transactions is considered as an indicator for the demand for virtual currency. The results show that the shock from virtual currencies has led to a decrease in the demand for traditional money, in other words, there has been a substitution between holding traditional money and virtual money. In addition, the results indicated that due to the shock of virtual currencies, the amount of consumption in the economy has increased, and on the other hand, the amount of government income from royalties and money printing has decreased. Also, the results showed that the government's tax revenues have also decreased due to the trend of financial resources in the economy towards the demand of virtual currencies.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of electricity tariff liberalization on value added and growth of different economic sectors based on designing a general equilibrium model that can be calculated for Iran and using the social accounting matrix in 2011. The government intended to organize the use of energy subsidies in addition to establishing justice in society by implementing the law on targeted subsidies. In this study, the policy of subsidy reform and electricity tariff liberalization has been studied in the form of two scenarios. The first scenario was a 50% reduction in subsidies paid in the electricity sector and the second scenario was the complete elimination of subsidies in the electricity sector. The results of this study showed that the change in electricity tariffs has led to an increase in value added growth in various economic sectors in both scenarios. Meanwhile, the sectors of oil and natural gas, food and electricity supply, water and gas have shown the highest growth in the second scenario compared to the first scenario, and the sectors of construction, wood and paper, non-metallic minerals and other industries.

One of the most important duties of financial economy is modeling and forecasting the volatilities of price of risky assets. From analysts and policy makers’ view, price volatility is a key variable contributing to perception of market volatilities. Therefore, analysts need to have an appropriate of forecast of price volatility as a necessary input to perform duties such as risk management, portfolio allotment, assessment of at-risk value, pricing, authority of transaction and future contracts. Accordingly, in the present study, using TVP-SV and PLS models and comparison them with the method OLS in MATLAB and XLSTAT software in the period from 2003-01 to 2016-06 (monthly) the effect of actual variables (industrial production, investment of actual sector in housing, economic growth, share of government expenses to GDP and growth rate of nonoil export) and monetary variables (inflation, money arena, oil price, domestic price of gold) on return of the Tehran Stock Exchange is investigated. Based on the PLS model, it was concluded that variables of economic growth and oil price affected the efficiency of the Tehran Stock Exchange more than other variables. Then, variables of economic growth and oil price were entered to the TVP-SV model. According to results, the model TVP is more efficient than the OLS one. In addition, the TVP-SV model after pause of stock return, economic growth during the period had the highest efficiency on stock return.

One of the most important tasks of the financial economy is modeling and forecasting of the price volatility of risky assets. For analysts and policymakers, price volatility is a key variable that helps to understand market fluctuations. Therefore, the analysts need to be able to predict the correctness of price volatility as an essential input for tasks such as risk management, portfolio assignment, value at risk and transaction option pricing and future contracts. Accordingly, in the present research, return on stocks of Tehran Stock Exchange has been dealt with using PLS and TVP-SV models and its comparison with OLS method in MATLAB and XLSTAT software from March 2003 till August 2013 (monthly) using true variables (industrial output, real estate investment in housing, economic growth, government spending share in GDP and Non-oil exports growth rate) and monetary variables (inflation, money supply, exchange rate, oil price and domestic price of gold). Based on PLS model, the result was that the variables of economic growth and oil price have more influence of return of Tehran Stock Exchange in comparison with other variables. Then, we entered the variables of economic growth and oil price in TVP-SV model. Based on the results, TVP-SV model has more efficiency in comparison with OLS model. Based on the results of TVP-SV model after the first interruption of stock returns, the economic growth has the highest effect on stock returns.

During recent decades, Iran's economy  experienced numerous fluctuations,  some of them, such as reliance on oil revenues, high inflation and high unemployment rate, are now chronic . The other economic problems, among others, are sizable share of oil-related exports, bank-based financial system and lack of  market depth. These features leave the economy highly prone to external shocks.  An important area, affected by the sanctions and affecting various economic sectors, is the foreign exchange market. . This study examines the effects of recent sanctions on foreign exchange market as well as the consequences of foreign exchange fluctuations, due to sanctions, on economic sectors and economic variables, in order to identify SWTOs in exchange market and the related markets. The research proposes approaches for reaching a esilient economy.