فهرست مطالب abotaleb salehnasab

Today, the important of growth models as an important management tool and factors affecting them is clear. So, in this study, factors affecting the growth models were examined. Data from 256 permanent sample plots for the years 2003 and 2012 of Kheyroud Forest was used. First, the relationship between topographic factors including slope, direction and altitude with site productivity for beech was obtained using an empirical regression model. Then, the factors affecting the individual trees diameter increment were investigated using regression relations. Also, in order to better understand the effect of these factors, tree species were separated in four species group as beech, hornbeam, chestnut-leaved oak and other species. In order to evaluate the model, three statistics including RMSE, MBE and performance coefficients were used. The results showed that the relationship between the site productivity index and three factors of direction, gradient and elevation is sinusoidal, almost decreasing, at first increased and then decreased. Also, the behavior of the studied indicators in relation to tree species is different. For instance, in the diameter increment model of beech species, all of the indices, except for site productivity and Shannon-Wiener index had a significant effect and the use of these indicators for beech species reduces the error and bias and increases the efficiency of the model. The mortality model was also presented with a high percentage prediction. In general, the present study showed that the relationship between growth models and various indices has a lot of complexity and more research is needed.

Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province is one of the 31 provinces of Iran and located on the southwestern part of the country. Its capital is Shahrekord. It has an area of 16,332 square kilometers and a population of 857,910. To study of human development used the Surplus Biocappacity (SB) and Human Development Index (HDI). This research accrued in the shahr-e-kord, Boroojen, Farsan, Ardal, Lordegan and Kohrang region (chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province). our research used the raw data in related the Surplus Biocappacity (SB) and Human Development Index (HDI) include number of death, student in the primary, guidance, high school, tertiary and number of Adult Literacy in the calendar of 2010 year. Results showed that the quantity of human development index and sub- index in the shahr-e-kord was higher the other region of chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province, but this index in the Kohrang region was lowest quantity. because the the quantity of family income, level of education and life Expectancy index in this region are lowest in the chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province. Other region of province arranged the Boroojen (17%), Lordegan (17%), Farsan (13%) and Ardal (12%) have a maximum of effect on the human development. Overall results showed that the shahr-e-kord (center of chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province) has a maximum of human development, and Kohrang region have a minimum of human development. Authors suggested increasing the human development of Kohrang region more focused in this region and determinate the more financial resource and managements.

This study presents the predicted amount of precipitation, temperature and the climate simulation periods 2099-2070, 2049-2020 and 2008-1979 observation period under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in Tehran, Zanjan, Qazvin and Rasht stations on the southern side and Ramsar, Babol and Gorgan in Northern side of the Alborz. Also, future climate was determined using the Domarten method. The main objective was to compare the climate change on two fronts in the north and south of the Alborz. The performance of model to predict the climatic parameters was evaluated based on the coefficient of determination (R2 ) and root mean squared estimation error (RMSE). The results of predicting the climate parameters indicate that the model simulated these parameters adequately. The results of the precipitation in all stations in period 2020- 2049 compared with the period 1979-2008 show an increasing trend in all stations and the period 2070-2099 compared to observation periods show an increasing trend in precipitation; while it has a decreasing trend compared to the periods 2020-2049. In 2070-2099 and 2020–2049 periods, the average, minimum and maximum temperature was increased relative to the observation period 1979-2008. The results of the climate determination by the Domarten method show that the climate in the Babolsar, Qazvin, Ramsar and Rasht stations will be change comparing with the observed climate in 1979-2008 in the future periods. In the Gorgan station at period 2070-2099 under the A2 scenario, the climate will change from semi-arid to the arid climate. In the Zanjan station at period 2020-2049 under the A2 scenario, the climate will change from semi-arid to Mediterranean climate and at period 2070-2099 climate from Mediterranean to semi-arid climate. This data can be simulated with high accuracy to better foresight the climatic conditions in future periods to help the future macro-management in providing better productivity of resources, particularly the water resources management.

Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province is one of the 31 provinces of Iran and located on the southwestern part of the country. Its capital is Shahrekord. It has an area of 16,332 square kilometers and a population of 857,910. To study of human development used the Surplus Biocappacity (SB) and Human Development Index (HDI). This research accrued in the shahr-e-kord, Boroojen, Farsan, Ardal, Lordegan and Kohrang region (chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province). our research used the raw data in related the Surplus Biocappacity (SB) and Human Development Index (HDI) include number of death, student in the primary, guidance, high school, tertiary and number of Adult Literacy in the calendar of 2010 year. Results showed that the quantity of human development index and sub- index in the shahr-e-kord was higher the other region of chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province, but this index in the Kohrang region was lowest quantity. because the the quantity of family income, level of education and life Expectancy index in this region are lowest in the chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province. Other region of province arranged the Boroojen (17%), Lordegan (17%), Farsan (13%) and Ardal (12%) have a maximum of effect on the human development. Overall results showed that the shahr-e-kord (center of chaharmehal va Bakhtiari Province) has a maximum of human development, and Kohrang region have a minimum of human development. Authors suggested increasing the human development of Kohrang region more focused in this region and determinate the more financial resource and managements.