فهرست مطالب ahmad naghilu

International reserves include liquid assets at the international level that the Central Bank maintains for purposes such as intervening in the foreign exchange market and covering the balance of payments deficit. Reserves can be used to compensate for excess supply or demand in the foreign exchange market and as a result, help to reduce exchange rate fluctuations over time. There are many disagreements in the relationship between international reserves and money creation, for reasons such as the potential of currency manipulation, the role of the central bank and the independence of the central bank, the use of reserves for various reasons, including economic stability and growth, and how to use international reserves. These theories have caused the relationship between the reserves and the credit creation of the Central Bank to be always ambiguous. Therefore, in the present study, the effect of the international reserves of the Central Bank on the credit creation of the banking sector in Iran has been investigated.

In this study, the GDP growth rate at constant prices was used to measure the economic growth rate. The changes in reserves are also based on the data of the Central Bank, and the inflation rate is the growth rate of the consumer price index. The price of oil used in this study is the price of Iranian heavy crude oil. In this study, to check the results, the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method was used, which was used to estimate the model from the data of the period 1380 to 1401; In addition, data analysis was done using STATA software.

Generalized Dickey-Fuller and Phillips Perron reliability tests for the variables used in this study showed that the variables used in this research are at a reliable level. On the other hand, investigations showed that in this study and based on Schwartz's statistics, the optimal number of breaks for each estimation model is equal to 1. Apart from the reaction to shock tool, another tool used by VAR models is forecast error variance analysis. This tool determines the instability contribution of each variable against the shocks applied to other variables of the model. Analysis of the variance of the prediction error in this study showed that the largest share of the variance of the prediction error of the variables of this study is explained by these variables themselves. In addition, the results showed that after this variable, changes in the legal reserve contributed the most to the money creation of the banking system. The results of this study showed that a standard deviation shock in the rate of change of international reserves left a positive effect on money creation in the banking sector up to three periods after the shock was applied, and after that, its effect decreased and tended to zero. This result shows that the increase in international reserves by the Central Bank led to an increase in the monetary base, which resulted in an increase in money creation by the banking system.

According to the definition, international reserves include assets with high liquidity at the international level, which the central bank maintains for purposes such as intervening in the foreign exchange market and covering the balance of payments deficit. By selling reserves, he prevented the sharp fall in the value of the domestic currency and prevented the effects of the currency market crisis on the domestic economy, including production and price levels; Therefore, higher levels of reserves indicate the commitment of the Central Bank to the stability of the exchange rate, and hence may reduce the possibility of currency instability. Based on the results, it can be concluded that with the increase in the export earnings of the country and as a result the increase in reserves in other countries, the government through the Central Bank has considered these reserves as a monetary base and considered its Riyal equivalent as a monetary base. What is clear is that the increase in the reserves of the Central Bank in Iran has caused an increase in the monetary base, money creation, and, as a result, an increase in inflation. Therefore, it seems that on the one hand, the low independence of the Central Bank in the management of reserves and on the other hand, the economic conditions of Iran, including the government, have caused these reserves to act as a stimulus in the monetary base and inflation. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank (or the government) consider the effects of inflation when using these reserves and manage them in such a way that inflationary effects and, as a result, economic fluctuations do not occur in the country.

Today, export-oriented companies are very important. These companies need a lot of investment to expand their activities, which is one of the best ways to finance the stock market and since market return is one of the factors influencing people's decisions to direct their capital to this market return. Therefore, the analysis of factors affecting this market return is importants and hence the main purpose of this article is to analyze some fundamental, political and behavioral on the market return of export-oriented companies of Tehran stock exchange. The sample includes 41 export-oriented companies of the Tehran stock exchange selected by classification method. The data during 2011-2018  has been collected from the rahavard365.com website and codal.ir website. Empirical results based estimate by Semi-parametric and parametric (GLS) method applying for the stata (16) software. Empirical results shows US unilateral withdraw from JCPOA and herding behavior have a significant positive effect on the market return of export-oriented companies of Tehran stock exchange. Noise trading, size of company, financial leverage and Market-to-Book equity ratio have not significant effect on the market return of export-oriented companies of Tehran stock exchange.

As a significant source of financing resources, the stock market plays a vital role in directing savings to the productive sectors of the economy in all countries. Therefore, the study of factors affecting this market is of particular importance. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of Noise Trading and the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the return of the Tehran Stock Exchange Market. The sample includes 248 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange selected by systematic removal method, and the data has been collected from the Rahavard365.com website and the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization website. Empirical results based on pooling data and estimate by generalized least squares (GLS) method during 2011-2018 applying for the STATA (15) software showed that United States withdrawal from JCPOA, herding behavior, and company size have a significant positive effect on the return of the Tehran Stock Exchange Market, While the noise trading has a significant negative effect on this return

The main purpose of this research is the non-linear effect of the stock index on the development of the industrial sector in Islamic countries. This study is of a causal nature in terms of practical purpose and in terms of data collection and descriptive information. The methodology is post-event. In this research, an attempt was made; By explaining the theory and designing a model to investigate the non-linear effect of the stock index on the development of the industrial sector in Islamic countries, with an emphasis on various indicators of financial development: the soft panel transfer regression (PSTR) approach was investigated. The geographical area of ​​research of Islamic Conference member countries (Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iran, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Tunisia, Chad, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Sudan, South African Sahara, Iraq, Oman, Gambia, Qatar, Malaysia) , Mali, Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria) and the time domain of the research is between 2005 and 2019. Using MATLAB software, the data was analyzed through the soft panel transition regression (PSTR) approach, and the results of the analyzes show that There is a non-linear relationship between the stock index and the development of the industrial sector in Islamic countries.