akbar mirzapour babajan

Forecasting stock prices and returns is one of the most complicated and controversial topics in financial markets. Stock market is constantly influenced by the state of the national economy, investors' perceptions, and political events. Furthermore, the price series is highly non-linear and unstable. Ongoing research and updates in economic and stock market theories have gradually revealed the components necessary for predicting stock price indices, making accurate predictions possible. This research aims to develop an intelligent stock price prediction model based on deep learning for the Tehran Stock Exchange market. This model incorporates dimensionality reduction techniques to manage the capital portfolio, thereby increasing returns and reducing investment risks. The data from 2020 to 2023 were sourced from the Kodal system and were coded and analyzed using the RISP method and the Python programming language. A combination of LSTM, PCA, GRP, and SVD algorithms was used for the proposed model. A comparison of dimensionality reduction methods with artificial intelligence techniques shows that the PCA dimensionality reduction method can enhance the performance of deep learning compared to other data dimensionality reduction methods.

Forecasting stock price and returns is one of the most complicated andcontroversial issues in financial markets . The stock market has always been influenced by the state of the national economy, investors; perceptions and political events, and the price series is highly non-linear and unstable. With continuous research and updating of researchers in the economic market and stock market theory, the components of stock price index prediction were gradually exposed and stock price prediction became possible. This research was also conducted with the aim of providing an intelligent stock price forecasting model based on deep learning in the Tehran Stock Exchange market - with the approach of dimensionality reduction techniques for managing the capital portfolio in order to increase returns and reduce investment risk . The data used in the period of 2020-2023 were received from the Kodal system and coded and analyzed using the CRISP method and using the Python programming language. A combination of LSTM, PCA and SVD algorithms was used for the proposed model. Comparing the combination of dimensionality reduction methods with artificial intelligence methods shows that the use of PCA dimensionality reduction method can improve the performance of deep learning compared to other data dimensionality reduction methods .

An asset class that has experienced exponential growth since the late 1990s is that of Exchange traded funds, which represent a financial innovation of huge popularity among both retail and institutional investors. The existence of price deviation between ETF's prices and their NAV can lead to the creation of feedback trading strategies among the investors of these assets. In this regard, using the standard model of Santana-Wadvani (1992) and the data of Gold ETF in Iran Mercantile Exchange during the period of 2017/06/10 to 2022/09/03, to investigate the existence of feedback trading between the traders of this market. The results showed that the returns' response of these ETFs to different news was asymmetric and negative, which shows that positive news has more impact than negative news. The coefficient of feedback trading showed that there is no evidence of the existence of feedback trading in the market of ETFs. Also, despite the existence of two formal market (with complete overlapping of trading time) and informal market (with incomplete overlapping of trading time) for underlying asset (Gold Coins) in Iran, traders do'nt pay attention to the deviation of ETF prices compared to their NAV. The coefficient of market inefficiency showed that the traders of these ETFs have informational guided behavior. Also, the trades of the investigated ETFs are based on the inefficiency of the market and the news and information published in the market have the greatest impact on their transactions.

The production of Islamic humanities is a very complex task, and it is necessary for the Islamic world and those who care about science and humanity in the Islamic world, not only to continue the life of their civilization, but also to save their backs, and to produce Islamic humanities with an Islamic and realistic perspective. slow and offers it to humanity.What is needed in the first place for this purpose is to review the foundations of Western humanities and the next step is to redefine the foundations based on the many treasures of religious knowledge in various fields of humanities. The basis of economics, based on the foundations of western philosophers' thinking on the material definition of man, provides an incomplete definition of utility, which requires a conceptual definition of this concept while criticizing this definition, so that other principles can be based on it. He formed Islamic economics on it.In this article, desirability is examined from the perspective of Islam, and selected theories are presented by criticizing the theories surrounding the theory of desirability.This study is presented with the method of narrative review of two main categories of studies to provide a suitable alternative theory. In the first category of the theory of maximization of material and spiritual aspects of utility, it is stated that according to the problems in these theories, the second category of studies have been investigated and explained to avoid problems.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have so many features like low cost, tax efficiency, liquidity and stock like attributes which make it most attractive. Because of this, ETFs are the most popular type of investment destination. Intuitively, because of their ease and low cost of trading, ETFs may be appealing to individual (unsophisticated, uninformed) investors who are more likely to chase trends, raising a concern over the impact of their introduction on the overall market efficiency. The purpose of this article is to examine the strategy of feedback trading and investors’ behavior ETF in the capital market of Iran for the first time. For this purpose, the daily data of seven ETFs 2013/10/07-2023/03/20 and Santana-Wadvani model (1992) have been used. The results showed that despite the existence of a fully overlapping market for underlying asset transactions, these ETFs are traded below their net asset value on most trading days. The results of the estimation of the feedback trading model showed that there is no evidence of the existence of feedback trading in ETFs and traders do not pay attention to their past performance. The market of these ETFs is efficient, which can be attributed to the professional management of these ETFs

One of the key functions of financial markets is price discovery that refers to the use of assets prices for pricing other markets transactions. Since the introduction of exchange-traded funds and their increasing popularity, the use of these tools has led to discussions regarding the transfer of the price discovery process in related markets. Saffron ETF is one of the types of commodity ETF that have recently been traded in the Iran's capital market. Considering the importance of saffron among agricultural products, in this article, the issue of price discovery in relation to this product has been investigated. In order to investigate this issue, the daily data of Saharkhiz saffron certificate and tradable fund from 2021/10/26 to 2020/04/09 was studied using the time-varying price discovery model. Johansen's test shows the existence of a long-term relationship between these two variables. The Granger causality test showed that the causality is from the Spot to the ETF market, so that changes in the Spot are the cause of changes in the ETF market. Finally, the use of time-varying price discovery, in addition to verifying the causality test, showed that more than 85% of the price discovery process takes place in the Spot market and only 15% of price discovery takes place in the ETF market, which shows that it is not realized, which shows the non-fulfillment of the ETF price discovery function in Iran's capital market.

In developing countries, the shocks that enter the economy due to capital market fluctuations have more depth and durability. Because of the two-way connection between the stock market and the real sector of the economy and public attention to this market, examining the stock market shocks is of great importance. Therefore, the present study investigated the extreme fluctuations of the stock market index, which suspected the existence of bubbles. Timing of these bubbles in the market is one of the goals of this study, which was carried out by using the right-tailed unit root tests based on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. A stock price bubble may be affected by monetary policy. This issue is influenced by the size of the bubble and the type and strength of the applied monetary policy. The impact of monetary policy fluctuations and especially interest rates on stock price bubbles is theoretically uncertain and should be determined empirically. Therefore, another goal of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy shocks on the formation and timing of the stock market bubble.

The method of Phillips et al.  (2015) has been used to identify and time the stock market bubble. Galli and Gambeti model and TVP-SVAR method were also used to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the stock market bubble.

BSADF (Backward Supreme Augmented Dicky-Fuller) test has been used to determine the dates when the stock market had a bubble. According to this test, in three short periods, from July to September 2005, from April to May 2011, and from October to November 2018, the stock market behaved like a bubble. Regarding the impact of the interest rate shock on the stock market bubble, it can be said that the monetary expansion shock (decrease in the real interest rate) causes the bubble part of the stock price to become larger. In all periods, the response of the bubble part was positive, but over time, has increased, and since the beginning of the 2010s, its response to the shock of interest rate reduction has completely changed. The liquidity shock, also strengthens the size of the bubble. The amount of this influence has also increased greatly over time and has reached its peak in 2017 (the year of the formation of the price bubble in the stock market based on the BSADF test). Therefore, it can be claimed that the increase in the bubble part of the stock price was caused by a positive shock or an increase in liquidity. Regarding the effect of the credit shock on the stock market bubble, it can be said that credits has affected the fundamental part of the stock price, but it does not have much effect on the bubble part of the stock price. In fact, the increase in credits has caused the liquidity restrictions of economic enterprises to be removed and has an effect on their production and sales and finally on their profitability. Therefore, it is expected that with an increase in credits (positive credit shock), most of the fundamental part (current and future profitability) of companies will be affected.

During the last decade, the public attention to the stock market in Iran increased significantly. This issue caused the entry of new funds into this market, which was seen in the bubble-like behavior of the stock price index. In the conventional economic theory, the positive impact of expansionary monetary policies on the bubble is expected, but there are other theories that make the long-term impact of the monetary policy shock on the size of the bubble uncertain and dependent on factors such as the size of the bubble, the stability of the monetary policy, and the type of monetary tool. In order to solve this theoretical ambiguity, the effect of one of these cases, i.e., changing the monetary policy tool, on the stock price bubble was investigated. Before that, the existence of a bubble in the stock market had been checked. Regarding the impact of monetary shocks on the stock price bubble, according to the type of monetary policy instrument, the reaction of the stock price bubble has been different. Interest rate policy and liquidity have had a positive effect on the bubble, but credit policy has not had such an effect. In most of the developed economies, the interest rate change is the most powerful monetary policy tool, as a small change in it can have a large impact on the real sector of these economies. But in our country, according to the empirical findings of this article, the effect of liquidity on the stock market bubbles has been greater than the effect of changing the interest rates on it. This result is a proof of the dominance of liquidity over monetary policies in Iran.

Examining the dynamics of oil commodity prices at different times is of particular importance, as fluctuations in commodity prices can be a serious problem for policymakers. Monetary policy shocks are among the factors that can affect the price of petroleum products. Therefore, identifying as accurately as possible the factors affecting price changes can be of great help to policymakers. Due to this, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on price dynamics of selected petroleum products group in Iran using Bayesian Var model in the period of 2008-1 to 2017-4. Selected petroleum products include bitumen, slack wax oil and sulfur. The results showed that in the long run, liquidity, the price of slack wax oil and the price of sulfur had the greatest impact on the price of bitumen, slack wax oil and sulfur, respectively. Interest rates have been studied the least impact on commodities.

The Present article examines factors that have effect on saffron warehouse receipt and on saffron futures in Iran commodity exchange. This study tries to identify the import of saffron future price and the two-way communication between these two financial instruments (saffron warehouse receipt and saffron futures) to saffron market.

In this regard, this study seeks to answer the existence of the relationship between linear and non-linear causality between these two financial instruments. The data were obtained daily in the period from June 2018 to July 2019 using price fluctuations in saffron warehouse receipt and saffron futures. Descriptive – analytical research methods and library data collection methods, regression models and the concept of neural networks with the help of Eviews software and R Economic Statistical Software were used. The price fluctuations of saffron warehouse receipt have been extracted using Arch family models.

Results indicate that there is a two linear causality relationship between warehouse receipt’s price fluctuation and future’s price fluctuation. To investigate the existence of non-linear causality between the two under studied, variables VAR model residual was used. The BDS test result show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the mentioned variables. The results of the non-linear granger causality test based on neural network show that futures price are the cause for price fluctuations in saffron warehouse receipt.

It can be stated that price discovery is formed in saffron future market and saffron warehouse receipt market follows the futures market.

Having access to financial resources is one of the main goals of the Islamic financial system. One of the innovations in the field of Islamic monetary and financial issues in the last decade is the issuance of various types of Islamic securities known as sukuk.Despite the phenomenal growth of the global sukuk market, academic research on sukuk is still in its infancy, particularly because researchers have not taken this financial innovation seriously. Currently, there is a growing body of Sukuk literature. Initially, the Sukuk literature was largely directed towards qualitative research. As the number of Shariah-compliant instruments increased, studies on sukuk turned to quantitative research and moved towards measuring the impact and performance of sukuk and comparing sukuk to bonds. Most of the sukuk research is mainly focused on sukuk issued in Malaysia, Indonesia and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and unfortunately, a very small amount of this research is the contribution of Iran. Accordingly, in this article, research gaps in the field of sukuk in Iran are presented by reviewing the world literature. The conclusion that can be drawn from this study is that the main areas related to the research gaps of sukuk include legal ownership and interest in sukuk, empirical research on sukuk based on participation, fundamental research on sukuk, how to integrate sukuk and examining its effects such as hybrid sukuk, issues related to sustainable development such as green sukuk, etc.

Investigation the Relationship between Saffron warehouse receipt's price fluctuations and saffron future trading volume in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME)AbstractThe Present article examines the effect of future trading volume on warehouse receipt's price fluctuations and the two way communication between them, in order to analyze mixture of Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis (SIAH).For this purpose, this study using the relationship between linear and non-linear causality between these variables. Results indicate that there is a two linear causality relationship between warehouse receipt’s price fluctuation and future trading volume. To investigate the existence of non-linear causality between the two under studied, variables VAR model residual was used. The BDS test Results on VAR model residuals show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the mentioned variables. The results of the non-linear granger causality test based on neural network show that futures trading volume are the cause for price fluctuations in saffron warehouse receipt and therefore it can be stated that In Saffron trading in Iran commodity exchange, information flows from futures market to cash market and speculation in saffron warehouse receipt market as a stabilizer could not affect future trading prices. Materials and Methods In this study, ARMA models are used to analyze the time series production process and then Garch model to extract time series fluctuations of saffron warehouse receipts, VAR model to use model residuals and to recognize the existence of nonlinear relationships between variables. The linear and nonlinear Granger causality test has been used to examine the causality, which explains the nonlinear Granger causality test and its related preparations. To use nonlinear tests such as Granger nonlinear causality test, first it is necessary to ensure the existence of nonlinear relationships between variables, which is done by the BDS test, which is described below. After proving the existence of nonlinear relationships between variables, in this study, we used artificial neural networks and R software to investigate the existence of nonlinear causality.The results of BDS test on the residuals obtained from the VAR model between the variables show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the variables. The results show that although the existence of causality between the studied variables is proved linearly, but due to the non-linear effects between the variables and Granger nonlinear causality test, price fluctuations of warehouse receipts cannot be the cause of saffron futures volume. This means that information is flowing from the saffron futures markets to spot market, and since price fluctuations in warehouse receipt cannot be a reason for the volume of saffron futures transactions, It can be stated that speculation in the commodity deposit certificate market will not lead to changes in the trading volume of futures and as a result the price will not stabilize in future periods.

The underground economy is one of the problems of developing oil economies such as Iran. It is argued that the underground economy can hinder financial development, and from the reciprocal view, financial development can reduce the size of the underground economy. Accordingly, the present study examines the causality between financial development (bank-oriented and stock-oriented) and the volume of underground economy in the Iran's economy by the Hsiao causality method during the period of 1350-1396. In this study, the MIMIC approach was used to calculate the underground economy index in Iran. Based on the results, in the Iran economy before the oil shock of 1352 and also the period of revolution and war (1356-1368) has had a low level and decreasing trend in terms of underground economy. But for the rest of the years, the trend has been roughly incremental. According to the Hsiao causality test, the underground economy is not the cause of the bank based financial development-and stock based financial development; on the contrary, bank based financial development-and stock based financial development are the cause of the underground economy. This means that with financial development, part of the underground economy can be controlled in the Iran economy.

Although taxes have always been a major source of funding for governments and an effective tool for the government to achieve its goals, these important tools have led to disruptions in the economy and have led to widespread differences among economists. It has been about the role and size of government in the economy. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the Impact of tax revenues on macroeconomic variables. The model parameters are estimated using seasonal adjusted time series data for the period 2009-2010. To estimate the bizarre parameters of the model, the previous standard distribution, mean, and deviation of the parameters must first be determined. The parameters are calculated. The results of the model estimation showed that the revenues from VAT have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of different provinces. Also, the amount of intermittent growth rate of GDP per capita in the provinces has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth rate of this year and also the variable of bank credit, investment rate, has a positive and significant effect on economic growth rate. Also, the variable of investment and government spending has a positive and significant effect, but the inflation rate has a significant and negative effect on economic growth. The results also showed that a short-term tax shock has a negative impact on economic growth and consumption, but in the long run, with an increase in tax revenues, GDP growth and, consequently, consumption and investment in the economy have increased.

Gold exchange traded fund is one of the new financial instrumentss that underlying asset is gold and traded in the capital markets. This article examines the pricing deviation of the four gold funds on the Iran Mercantile Exchange from their underlying asset index. The main purpose of this study is investigate the effect of underlying asset shocks on the Gold exchange traded funds’ pricing deviation. In order to achieve this purpose, employed daily data of Emami Coin, Gold ETFs in Iran (Tala, Ayar, Zar, Gohar), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Results The results shown that pricing deviation is stationarity and predictable. Therefore can be considered an implicit transaction cost an Gold ETF. The reason for the predictability of the pricing deviation stems from its stationarity and the specific price discovery processes for this asset class. Utilization of Impulse Response Function shown that the shock effect of the underlying asset was the same and do not persist for more than six trading days, Which indicates the relative pricing efficiency of these funds

Policy rules as one of the most acceptable methods in monetary policies are among the significant characteristics of researches about policymaking. A policy rule states how the policy tools should react to changes in economic situations. Understanding the tools and criteria of monetary policies such as changes in target inflation, changes in relative weights of prices stability and employment, and its effect on different sections of society including households and economic firms can help economic policymakers to increase the effectiveness of monetary policies. This paper studies the time consistency and structure of optimal monetary policy from the viewpoint of public sector finance concerning the heterogeneous behavior of economic agents in form of keeping liquidity and nominal assets in Iran. The study utilizes time-series data quarterly from Q1 1989 to Q4 2017. A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been developed for monetary policy analysis in open economies. Results show that the redistribution effect of monetary policy leads to breakage of the link between time consistency and high inflation; a characteristic that belongs to optimal monetary and fiscal policies.

The paper aims to examine the price discovery process and the performance of Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) for the period 2017/06/10 – 2019/09/18. The study has employed Johansen cointegration and Johansen’s Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the price discovery analysis. The results show that the spot prices lead the Gold ETF price during the study period and ETF is only following the spot prices. Also Tracking Error analysis shows that, Gold ETF have neither outperformed nor underperformed the spot price. Price Deviation analysis indicates that Gold ETF is trading lower than the spot price of gold. The entire analysis reveals that although the price discovery takes place in the spot market, Gold ETF have performed as well as physical gold and the slight difference in price with that of Gold is only because of certain fees, which are applicable in the management of Gold ETF. Therefore, the expected price discovery for gold ETF in IME has not been realized.

It is important to examine the dynamics of prices for industrial commodities in different periods of time, because fluctuations in commodity prices can be posed as a serious problem in policy making. The fluctuation in the price of industrial goods can also affect the production of various sectors of the economy. Therefore, the relationship between the factors affecting the price of industrial goods is very important. Monetary policy shocks are among the factors that can affect the price of industrial commodities. Therefore, identifying as accurately as possible the factors affecting price changes, as well as the exact trend of monetary policies and examining the impact shocks, can help policymakers in many sectors. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary policy shocks on the price dynamics of industrial commodities group in Iran using SVAR method during the time period of 2008-1 to 2017-4. The statistical population of the study is the macroeconomic sector of Iran and the commodities selected in this study include aluminum, copper, gold, rebar, beams and zinc. The results showed that in the long run, the greatest impact on the commodities by credits. Finally, it can be said that increasing the amount of credits paid to the industrial sector in order to provide the necessary capital to expand the production centers of industry and achieve a stable situation in the price of industrial goods are among the policies that can be effective to improve the situation.

The aim of this paper is to examine the role of optimal monetary policies with heterogeneous agents in agent-based models. In this study, the influence of different people's expectations, on shaping the macroeconomic variables is evaluated. Also, the effects of monetary policies are investigated with regard to different behaviors in terms of distributing the brokers and the economic changes in the pattern of meeting expectations in general dynamic random equilibrium models. The new heterogeneous-agent Keynesian model provides insights into the redistribution of monetary policies and business cycles. The recent literature helps to understand optimal monetary policies under certain conditions. The problems involved in the analysis of optimal monetary policies emerge from the fact that the new Keynesian models based on the behavior of economic heterogeneous agents describe the economic status based on the distribution of wealth. The results obtained from this study indicate that, under discreet conditions, the efforts of monetary authorities can lead to variations in inflation if they redistribute the wealth in favor of families who are in debts and lie at the bottom of the list of priorities for getting a share of net wealth.

The industry sector is considered as one of the important and vital parts of the economy. On the other hand, monetary policy is also stimulating the demand side of the economy for growth of production and labor and the level of prices. In connection with other sectors, this one has proven to play a significant role in production and productivity. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the value added in the wood products sector is based on the use of positive mathematical programming during the periode of 1990 - 2016. In the PMP method, the data of the existing conditions are reconstructed, the constraints of decision makers' truth and the manufacturer are considered in real terms, and this optimization model is very useful for analyzing policies in the present situation. The results of this paper showed that the decreasing and incremental policies of monetary variables (liquidity and bank interest rate) in different scenarios have an effect on the added value of optimizing that subsection. Also, an important indicator of this method is to calculate the optimal value added of each sub-section in its base year and its targeting capability in some other scenarios. For example, in the first scenario, in the case of a 5, 10, and 20 percent reduction in liquidity, value added will increase by 4, 8 and 18 percent in the wood and wood products industry. In this scenario, the drop in the policy variable will also increase the bank interest rate by as much as 5, 8 and 16 percent in the added value.

The industry sector is considered as one of the and vital parts of the economy. On the other hand, monetary policy is also stimulating the demand side of the economy for growth of production and labor and the level of prices. In connection with other sectors, this one has proven to play a significant role in production and productivity. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the value added in the basic metals sector is based on the use of positive mathematical programming during the periode of 1990 - 2016. In the PMP method, the data of the existing conditions are reconstructed, the constraints of decision makers' truth and the manufacturer are considered in real terms, and this optimization model is very useful for analyzing policies in the present situation. The results of this paper showed that the decreasing and incremental policies of monetary variables (liquidity and bank interest rate) in different scenarios have an effect on the added value of optimizing that subsection. For example, in the first scenario, in the case of a 5, 10, and 20 percent reduction in liquidity, value added will increase by 4, 8 and 18 percent in the basic metals industry. In this scenario, the drop in the policy variable will also increase the bank interest rate by as much as 5, 8 and 16 percent in the added value.

Given the importance of economic growth and development in a country, recognizing the factors affecting growth is of great importance. Among the factors affecting economic growth and development, the development of the stock market has attracted the attention of most scholars and statesmen and efforts have been made to develop the stock market in different countries. Given the controversial views in this regard, the impact of stock market development on economic growth in each country should be made according to the country's information. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of stock market development on world economic growth and modeling the relationship between them. For this purpose, linear and nonlinear regression model of generalized torque panel was used. The dependent variable of gross domestic product growth and independent variable included the development of the stock market and control variables including foreign direct investment, total investment, free trade, and inflation. The results showed that the effect of financial development on economic growth depends on the country under study and the model used.

Recent studies in housing market especially in the aftermath of 2007 financial crisis show that monetary policy has a main role in housing market and its impact can be asymmetric. In other words, the effect of monetary policy depends on the state of housing market and during bull and bear periods, the market can be differently affected by the monetary policy. As a result, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on Iran housing market using quarterly data during 1374-1396. To this end, we use the Markov Switching VAR model in which parameters change according to the phase of the housing cycle. The results suggest that monetary policy has asymmetric effects on housing market. Also, regime dependent Impulse Response Functions show that impact of monetary policy (with same sign and size) on housing market is larger in bear regime than in bull regime.

In this article, we examine Samuelson's hypothesis on maturity effect in gold coin futures contracts traded in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME). According to this hypothesis, the volatility of futures prices increases as future contracts approaches expiration date. The results show that the maturity effect is so weak in future contracts under investigation. This effect is acceptable in 5 out of 29 contracts. These contracts have been traded from 25 November 2008 to 21 September 2012. There are two different hypotheses on maturity effect in future contracts; the state variable hypothesis and negative covariance hypothesis. The state variable hypothesis states that the variability of futures prices is systematically higher in those periods when relatively large amounts of supply and demand uncertainty are resolved, i.e., during periods in which the resolution of uncertainty is high. According to negative covariance hypothesis, maturity effect is more likely to hold in markets that exhibit negative covariance between changes in spot prices and changes in net carry costs. Using panel data and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques, we conclude that no hypothesis is held for IME gold coin futures contracts.