فهرست مطالب ali reza moghaddam nia

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters, causing financial and human losses each year. At the same time, many rivers in Iran's watersheds lack complete and accurate statistics and information. On the other hand, estimating the flow of floods is one of the most important factors for the design and implementation of water structures. In such cases, one of the appropriate solutions to estimate the maximum flow rate with different return periods is flood analysis. In order to conduct the present study, 55 hydrometric stations with a common statistical period of 20 years were considered to perform the work after the statistical deficiencies were eliminated. Then, based on the distribution of the third type of Pearson logo with the lowest error rate and the highest number of first rank as the most suitable fit function, the amount of discharge in different return periods was estimated. The following information was collected on the types of physiography, land use, climate and geology variables. After collecting information about all independent variables using Gamma test, the most important variables affecting the maximum instantaneous flow, including area, drainage density, maximum 24-hour rainfall and watershed environment, were selected and modeled using methods. Random forest modeling and support vector modeling were performed and their efficiency was determined based on statistical indicators With an efficiency coefficient of 74 to 83%, the error of 3.05 to 32.11 m3 and the coefficient of explanation of 76 to 91 are more accurate than the random forest model.

Extended AbstractIntroductionHydrological modeling is an essential tool in water resources management, and its accuracy and reliability are critical to successful design, planning, and decision-making processes. Calibration and validation are two essential processes used to evaluate the performance of hydrological models. The warm-up period is a crucial component of hydrological modeling that allows the model to reach an equilibrium state by representing the initial system conditions accurately.This study aimed to investigate the impact of the length of the warm-up period on the performance of four different hydrological models, namely AWBM, Sacramento, SimHyd, and TANK, in the Kashkan watershed. The study used different optimization methods in the RRL software package during the calibration and validation periods. The proposed warm-up periods of 5%, 7%, and 10% of the initial data length were used without considering drought and wet conditions.The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the impact of the warm-up period on hydrological modeling performance. The study showed that the length of the warm-up period does have a significant impact on model performance, with the best results obtained when the warm-up period was set to 5% or 7% of the initial data length. These findings have important implications for the design and implementation of hydrological models, as they highlight the importance of carefully selecting the warm-up period length to ensure accurate and reliable modeling results. Overall, this study adds to the body of knowledge on hydrological modeling and provides useful guidance for future research and practical applications.Materials and methodsThe Kashkan River watershed, with an area of over 9,000 hectares, was selected as the study area for this research. The Kashkan River is an important sub-watershed of the Karkheh River watershed, and daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and potential evapotranspiration for the Kashkan watershed were used in this study, with a statistical period of 29 years (1988-2018). Since the rainfall-runoff process was investigated for the entire watershed, the Thiessen polygon method was used to obtain the weighted average of rainfall and evapotranspiration for the entire study area. Additionally, the Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method was used to obtain potential evapotranspiration data.The data used in this study were divided into two parts, training and testing, based on trial and error and a review of sources. The training data accounted for 70% of the total data, while the remaining 30% was used for testing. The AWBM, Sacramento, SimHyd, and TANK models in the RRL software package were investigated, along with seven optimization methods using the Nash-Sutcliffe objective function.The findings of this study provide insights into the application of different hydrological models and optimization methods in the Kashkan River watershed. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing initial system conditions during modeling and the impact of the length of the warm-up period on model performance. These findings have important implications for water resource management, particularly in the design and implementation of hydrological models for the Kashkan River watershed and other similar regions.Results and DiscussionThis study examined the influence of different durations for the warm-up period on the calibration and validation of RRL software package models. Seven optimization methods and the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion were utilized in the analysis. Specifically, the warm-up phase of the software, which constitutes the initial segment of the statistical period, was investigated during the calibration and validation processes. Durations of 5%, 7%, and 10% were selected from the onset of the statistical period. The study involved conducting over 4000 iterations for all the examined models and optimizers.Given the characteristics of the optimizers, up to 5 iterations were performed for each optimizer in each model. The resulting average NSE value (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) was analyzed and examined.The findings indicate that, on average, configuring the warm-up period to account for 5% and 7% of the complete dataset in the calibration and validation processes enhances the efficiency of the model compared to the recommended period suggested by the software. However, it is important to note that the outcomes may vary depending on the specific problem and prevailing conditions. Therefore, these results should be interpreted cautiously and in conjunction with other factors. Overall, this study offers a practical guideline for selecting an appropriate warm-up duration in the calibration and validation of RRL software package models.

Affecting the hydrologic cycle, climate change may increase the chances of natural hazards occurrence, including drought, which is considered as one of the most destructive types of such hazards. On the other hand, considering the increasing trend of global temperature and its impact on local climates, climate change is predicted to alter the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as drought. Meanwhile, General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used in recent decades to predict future climate changes under different emission scenarios, and various drought monitoring indicators have been developed to assess drought. Zarrineh River basin is regarded as one of the main sub-basins supplying the inflow of water to Lake Urmia, which is threatened by numerous long-term droughts. Therefore, as the drying of the lake may bring about a wide range of economic, social, and environmental consequences for the region, monitoring drought and implementing water resources management programs play pivotal roles in preventing the lake to get dried.

Located northwest of Iran, Zarrineh River basin covers an area of 12512 km2, being bounded by Iranian West and East Azerbaijan provinces and the Kurdistan province. This study used the meteorological data, including precipitation rate, and minimum and maximum daily temperature collected from four synoptic stations during the 1990-2018 period to simulate runoff. Also, the monthly runoff rate was collected from five hydrometric stations during the 1996-2017 period to calibrate and validate the SWAT model. Moreover, the data obtained from the general circulation model (HADGEM2-ES) and statistical downscaling methods (CCT) were used to simulate precipitation and temperature under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the future period (2025-2049). Finally, the SPI was applied to evaluate the meteorological drought in the base and the future periods, and the SRI obtained from the outputs of the SWAT model was used to evaluate the hydrological drought.

The data collected from five hydrometric stations were parameterized and calibrated on discontinuous stream networks. Accordingly, it was found that the R2 values varied from 0.52 and 0.70 for calibration and from 0.44 to 0.73 for validation. However, the NSE values varied from 0.52 to 0.64 for calibration and from 0.42 to 0.64 for the validation stage. Moreover, the model’s outputs were found to be satisfactory for most hydrometric stations, indicating the applicability of the SWAT model to the ZRB. On the other hand, based on the CCT model under the RCP8.5, the results of temperature and precipitation variations throughout the 2025-2049 period indicated that compared to the observation period, annual precipitation would decrease by 2.9% in the future period, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature rates would increase by 2.4°C and 3.6°C, respectively. Furthermore, the analysis of the annual temperature and precipitation changes under the RCP2.6 revealed that compared to the observation period, the precipitation rate would increase by 3.6%, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature would increase by 1.8°C and 3°C, respectively. Moreover, the results of the SPI analysis for the future period under the RCP8.5 indicated the occurrence of the extreme drought event. However, while the frequency of severe drought did not change significantly for the future period under both scenarios, the frequency of moderate drought decreased for the future period compared to the base period. On the other hand, the most extreme hydrological drought in terms of the SRI was observed in basin 9 during the base period (equal to -3.02). It was also found that the most hydrological drought occurred in basins 10 and 2 throughout the base period. Furthermore, the most extreme hydrological drought for the future period was found as -4.13 in sub-basin 8 under the RCP8.5, which is greater than that of the base period. Discussion and

The results suggested the satisfactory applicability of the SWAT model for simulating runoff in Zarrineh River basin, as the model considers almost all the physical conditions of the basin for the simulation process, possessing a wide variety of inputs to do so. The results of the analysis of temperature changes for the future period showed that the average minimum and maximum annual temperature would increase in the basin. Moreover, the results of the analysis of annual temperature and precipitation changes under the RCP2.6 revealed that compared to the observation period, the precipitation rate would increase by 3.6%, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature rate would increase by 1.8°C and 3°C in future, respectively. On the other hand, according to the results of SPI and SRI analysis for the future period, it was found that the intensity of meteorological and hydrological drought would increase on average in the basin under both scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Also, the results of the RCP8.5 suggested the possibility of a more severe drought compared to the RCP8.5. Considering an increase in minimum and maximum temperature found for the future period, we can expect an increase in the evaporation rate, probably leading to an increase in the severity of drought and a decrease in water resources of the Zarrineh River basin, which, in turn, will reduce the discharge of the basin’s water flow to the Urmia Lake.

Unhealthy and low-quality water resources, by affecting human health, may lead to many acute and chronic diseases. Therefore, water resources management, especially groundwater, which is one of the main sources of water used in cities and villages, is very important. In the present study, groundwater quality data of Yazdekan plain were collected and analyzed to investigate the existing situation of the groundwater for the last two decade (2001-2021). For this purpose, graphical methods (Piper, Schuler, Durov and Stiff diagrams and anionic / cationic time series) and some of qualitative evaluation indices (permeability and Kelly indices, SAR and Magnesium Hazard, sodium percentage and sodium carbonate residue) were used. According to the results, the water type of the Yazdekan Plain groundwater, evaluated magnesium bicarbonate and according to the TDS amount, was evaluated as unsuitable for drinking. Based on the Piper diagram, high salinity was observed. According to Schuler's diagram, this aquifer is classified as "unsuitable for drinking". The values of the indices were calculated as PI:48.1, KI:0.5, MH:77.7, SAR:492×10-3, Na%:28.6 and RSC:3, which indicate the high risk of magnesium and sodium carbonate residue, but in terms of permeability, potassium and sodium percentage, was observed in the appropriate class. Considering the not very desirable condition of this aquifer quality, there is a need for detailed planning to prevent the deterioration of the existing situation and in the next step to provide solutions to improve the quality of this aquifer.

Reliable estimation of precipitation is one of the most essential needs in water resources management. However, in many parts of the world, especially in Iran, the lack of time and place of rainfall data is very noticeable. Therefore, the use of satellite information is one of the ways to compensate for the lack of information. The purpose of this research is to compare the accuracy of rainfall information of TRMM-3B42 and PERSIANN-CDR products on a daily scale. The products of these two satellites are available daily for free in the pixel size of 0.25 degrees. The daily rainfall of 12 stations in the southern slopes of Alborz in a statistical period of 2000-2014 was used. The results show that these two satellite products are not the same in different statistical parameters, so that CDR and 3B42 have estimated 100% and 25% more rainfall events than the stations, respectively. Also, PERSIANN satellite is significantly superior to 3B42 in terms of RMSE, POD and CSI parameters, but on the other hand, it is weaker in terms of Bias and FAR parameters. Therefore, the selection of the desired satellite product should be based on the proper parameters.

Accurate slope map and the governing river network of a river basin are key inputs of hydrologic models. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of the PriorityFlow tool in topographic data processing with the aim of improving slope map extraction in the eastern Faryab Basin. PriorityFlow is a tool in the R programming environment, which aims to generate the correct slope map and to form a network of continuous pathways that matches the observed river network. To process the digital elevation model and prepare the slope map, three input files were used, including the digital elevation model, the representative map of the watershed and the representative map of the observed river network of the study area. After producing the slope map using this package, the obtained results were compared with the outputs obtained from other traditional tools available in the Parflow hydrological model. Specifically, the river network map related to the two slope maps were extracted by the Parflow model under the condition of very low permeability of the domain surface and compared with the observed river network of the study basin. The results showed that the slope map produced by the PriorityFlow tool has led to the production of a more accurate river network that matches the real river network of the eastern Faryab basin. Also, this software package is able to produce the slope map with enhanced accuracy and based on non-diagonal connections along the cell levels in the digital elevation model of the study area.

The purpose of the study is to investigate how urban environmental management in the district 22 of Tehran in order to provide a comprehensive model and improve it. The research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of method, so in collecting data from internal and external sources and in the survey phase, 20 elite expert managers in the field of bio-urban management were used through a questionnaire. Executive model of strategic research planning derived from individual Fred.R.David `s strategic management model and the QSPM matrix was used to execute the decision making process. Presenting a comprehensive and environmental model with the environment of the 22nd district of Tehran municipality, which is capable of determining the weak points of urban management and providing a solution to improve it, is one of the innovations of this article. According to the findings of the research and the final score of less than 2.5 determined in the environmental management of the municipality of district 22 of Tehran, the strengths and opportunities obtained to overcome the disadvantages and threats have not been properly used and the type of strategy, defensive. The results showed that three strategies, “Evaluation of Areas Requiring Protection”, “Reforming Legal and Organizational backgrounds, Reforming Organizational Structure and Integrated Urban Management are the most important Promotion strategies for urban management.

Precipitation is of the most important inputs of runoff modeling. The availability of precipitation data with appropriate temporal and spatial accuracy is very important and necessary for watersheds with small and scattered rainfall stations. Nowadays, climatic satellites are practical and widely-used tools in precipitation estimations. In this study, first the efficiency of TRMM satellite precipitation data in the monthly time series of Chehelchai Watershed was evaluated using R2, RMSE, NSE and Bias statistical indices by comparing the precipitation data of rain gauge stations (observed)  and the values of these statistical indices were 0.54, 22.70, 0.44 and -14.86, respectively. Considering the value of the coefficient of determination (R2), it can be concluded that the TRMM satellite was able to estimate the 0.54 of observed precipitation. In the next step, three base data models including MLP, ANFIS and SVR were used to estimate the monthly runoff. Two different input scenarios were selected :1) observed precipitation data in t and t-1 time steps and runoff in t-1 time step and 2) satellite precipitation data in t and t-1 time steps and runoff in t-1 time step. To compare the accuracy and error of the models, R2 and RMSE of the validation stage were used. The ANFIS model with the values of R2 and RMSE were 0.80 and 0.97 for the first type input combination and 0.78 and 1.02 for the second type input combination, respectively, as the suitable single model for estimating runoff in the study area were selected. Then weighted-mean method was used in the data fusion approach to provide a data driven combination model for each combination of inputs into the model in the studied watershed. This data fusion approach data-driven model improved the values (R2=0.81) and (Bias=-4.85) for the first type input combination and also improved the value (R2=0.79) for the second type input combination.

The most important problem in estimating floods is the lack of sufficient statistics and consequently the lack of evaluation of the appropriate amount of flow. One of the flood estimation methods in these basins is the use of hydrological modeling. In this study, Shahbahram river flood modeling was performed with Nazmkan hydrometric station located in Kohkiluyeh Boyer-Ahmad province with HEC-HMS and its comparsion with different flood estimation methods (regional flood analysis and Dicken, Fuller, Creager and Francou- Rodier methods). The HEC-HMS hydrological model presented better results with a lower error rate (maximum value of 10.51 with a return period of 1000 years and minimum value of 2.72 with a return period of 5 years) compared to experimental and analytical methods. The highest error is related to Dicken method with return period of 1000 and the value of 86.85 percent and the lowest error among experimental methods is related to Fuller method with 3.44 percent and return period of 500 years and regional analysis method with 3 percent error with return period of 5 years. Therefore, due to the use of HEC-HMS semi-distributed model of precipitation and area parameters with appropriate calibration, more accurate results can be obtained from this model.

As the main source of water and life for humans and other creatures, rivers may sometimes bring about destruction and irreparable damage. Therefore, it is necessary to study the hydraulic properties of the flow and the riverbed’s area to set a safe zone for human activities around it. On the other hand, constructions built along the river’s route such as bridges, weirs, superstructures, etc. alter the river flow’s hydraulic behavior, which, in turn, could make changes in the riverbed. Thus, this study sought to examine the implementation of a hydraulic model of the Valian River and its results and to investigate the role of bridges (Chandar, Eskol Darreh, Ajin Dojin, and Velian) in the riverbeds' natural conditions. The study area for designating the river’s bed limit and riparian zone included the upstream of Eskol Darreh village, all the routes which pass along the Eskol Darreh, Velian, Ajin Dojin, Khorvin, and Chandar villages, and finally, the entrance of Kordan River at the downstream of Chandar village. The length of the main river is about 17.5 km, whose upstream coordinates located, according to the UTM coordinate system, at 485090 east and 3990600 north, and its downstream coordinates are located at 481050 east and 3977000 north.

To simulate the river under study, hydraulic parameters were taken into account, including the flood discharge with different return periods, Manning coefficient, the river’s geometry in the form of cross sections, and the data regarding the constructs built along the river’s route. Moreover, the flow’s hydraulic conditions were simulated and the necessary hydraulic analysis over the studied periods was performed using the HEC-RAS model. According to the applicable laws, the flood zone is designated under the river’s natural conditions in terms of 25-year flood discharge. In this study, the final riverbed’s limit was designated by identifying the hydraulic bed and considering the effect of morphological, legal, riverbed land use, and socio-economic studies. The riparian zone is normally located at a certain distance away from the riverbed, which was considered 4 meters for the Valian River. Also, the water surface profile was calculated for the constant flow mode according to the standard step-wise method using the Hec_Ras software. The calculations were performed based on solving one-dimensional energy equations (Bernoulli equation). The Manning equation was also used to calculate the energy loss in successive periods. Furthermore, other types of losses such as the periods’ expansion and contraction coefficients were taken into account, and the momentum equation when applied for periods when fast variable currents occurred (in mixed currents, including a combination of supercritical and subcritical currents, hydraulic jump, the current passing through the bridges’ underpasses and the junction of branches, etc.). In addition, this model can also analyze the effects of river-related constructs such as bridges, culverts, weirs, lateral weirs, and organizing constructs discussed in this study. Taking the possibility of developing a GIS model for the study area, By having and according to the width of the river bank mapping, some cross sections were prepared along the river from the main route and the flood plain, designated at certain distances away from each other based on the mapping of the river’s edges using topographic maps with appropriate accuracy (scale 1: 500) and GIS software, including the GeoRas and the ArcGIS software.

Zoning the floods in the Valian River with different return periods, this study compared the natural conditions of the river before and after the construction of bridges using a one-dimensional HEC-RAS model. The studied river was modeled in its current status under its natural conditions for floods with different return periods, including the 2, 2.33, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000-year periods. The study’s results suggested that the constructed bridges had the greatest influence on the water’s cross-section flow and surface width, and the slightest effect on the water’s level and the balance of energy gradient. According to the results of the analysis performed on floods with a 25-year return period, it is recommended that due to its greatest amount of alterations at the cross-section current and the water’s surface width, Eskol Darrah's bridge be considered the highest priority in terms of management decisions and that the Valian bridge be the last priority in this regard.

When trying to designate the final riverbed’s limit for the Valian River in the study area, it was found that the trenching nature of the river’s bank, the alteration of the riverbed’s limit to facilitate the installation of rappers, the narrowed cross-section of the river, and the erosion potential had changed the river’s flood zone under its natural conditions. The results of water level analysis indicated that with an increase in return periods, the river’s flow rate and the flood level increased. Moreover, it was found that compared to natural conditions with a 25-year return period, the river’s longitudinal profile increased at its current status at the bridges due to the increase in the narrowness of the river’s cross-section. On the other hand, as the flow’s section has been narrowed at the bridges, eighter end of the bridges has been eroded and the water level has increased there. Moreover, the comparison of the natural and current conditions of the areas surrounding the bridges revealed that the Froude number has decreased with the changes made in the flow’s velocity and an increase in the water depth. Moreover, the presence of bridges in the flow’s route has led to an increase in free flow’s width and surface, and a decrease in the Froud number and the flow’s velocities in the 25-year return period. However, all of these parameters vary for the Valian bridge. Therefore, considering minor differences between the parameters in natural versus current conditions of the bridge, it appears that eighter the bridge has no influence on the flow’s characteristics or its modeling is erroneous. Taking the slight difference between parameters derived from modeling the bridge under natural and current conditions, the greatest and slightest effect of the bridge on the hydraulic parameters was found in the Eskol Darrah bridge and the Valian bridge, respectively. Furthermore, the highest amount of difference in the flow level was observed in the Eskol Darrah bridge (53.67), and lowest amount water level was found in the Valian bridge.

Lake Urmia is one of the centers that has suffered a water shortage due to natural and man-made factors, and in case of lack of appropriate measures, apart from security problems, it can also impose exorbitant costs on the country. This issue requires more attention and conducting more comprehensive studies from various aspects, especially intelligent basin management and integrated studies of water and soil resources and the implementation of specialized and timely programs for the supply of agricultural, drinking and industrial water. Investigations carried out during the last two decades show that the water level of Lake Urmia has decreased by more than eight meters and its area has decreased by more than 80% and has been subjected to complete drying (Shadkam, 2017). Currently, the water level of Lake Urmia is 1271 meters above sea level, the volume of water is 3 billion cubic meters and its area is between 2500 and 3000 square kilometers, and to reach the water level of 1274 meters and an area of ​​4300 square kilometers, it needs 14 billion cubic meters of water. Also, in order to reach the ideal water level, i.e. 1276 meters and an area of ​​5700 square kilometers, the volume of water should increase to 30 billion cubic meters (Asri and Ahmadi, 2018). Also, the drying of this lake can have a great impact on the life of the population living in the basin, the organisations inside the lake basin. Agriculture and economy of the region, climate change in the region and  proper management of water resources and accurate knowledge of water balance components are of particular importance (Abdali et al., 2018). Since the drying up of this lake can have a great impact on the life of the population living in the basin, the organisms inside the lake, agriculture and economy of the region, climate change in the region and even political adversities, therefore it is necessary to apply proper management in order to adapt to the existing conditions and carry out basic planning. is inevitable (Fazli, 2014). Therefore, the mainreason for the lack of water and the drying up of Lake Urmia is the lack of foresight and long-term planning, and more importantly, the lack of discipline in the management and guidance of operational plans at the basin level (Mahdavi Damghani, 2019). Basically, strategic management includes 3 stages of strategy setting, strategy implementation and strategy evaluation, which the QSPM matrix (quantitative strategic planning matrix) is proportional to the first stage, that is, strategy setting. SWOT analysis includes the systematic identification of factors with which the strategy should have the best compatibility. The logic of the mentioned approach is that an effective strategy should maximize the strengths and opportunities of the system and minimize the weaknesses and threats. If this logic is used correctly, it will have very good results for choosing and designing an effective strategy (Zangiabadi and Mousavi, 2012). In 1989, Johnson et al., in a study, introduced SWOT as a tool used in the early stages of decision making. This matrix is ​​effective in implementing development plans if specific goals and required indicators are available (Johnson et al., 1990).In this research, it is tried to determine the management strategies of Urmia lake basin in order to adapt to water shortage and drought in the process of comprehensive basin management using strategic management models (SWOT and QSPM). Therefore, it is necessary to first identify the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the opportunities and threats of the basin, and then determine the practical strategies, and after analyzing them, using the QSPM model, prioritize strategies to modify or complete the plans. In progress, he suggested to the relevant officials. Quantitative strategic planning matrix QSPM is an analytical method that determines the relative attractiveness of strategies. With this method, it is possible to objectively determine the various strategies that are among the best strategies, and the results of the matrix of internal and external factors are used to prepare a quantitative strategic planning matrix. In fact, this technique determines which of the selected strategic options is possible and  then prioritizes these strategies (Zarrabi and Mahboob Far, 2012).Regarding the innovation in the research topic, in general, most of the studies have been done, they have discussed why the lake dries up and also provide solutions to improve the problem of dryness of Lake Urmia. Some studies have also addressed the problems caused by the drying up of Lake Urmia and its possible damages in the future and have concluded that it is important and necessary to try to revive this lake. Also, the researches that have been carried out in fields such as water shortage or drying up of Lake Urmia have mostly focused on the environmental, economic, health and sustainable development and even political, security and geopolitical aspects, but so far not much attention has been paid to the issue of strategic planning of Lake Urmia. and so far, a detailed assessment of the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the comprehensive management of the Lake Urmia basin has not been done. Therefore, this research has a scientific innovation from this point of view.
Research and analysis

There are different methods and models to investigate and analyze this issue. Each of these models has its own concept and insight and follows a special technique and instructions. Among them, the SWOT matrix, which evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the system, is more common and famous (Hill, T. and R. Westbrook, 1997). The SWOT model is one of the group decision-making models used in It is designed to determine long-term or short-term strategy and make big and key decisions about various issues and topics. The main task of the mentioned model is to determine the strategy to improve the efficiency or the situation (Bazrafkan and Ekhsish, 2015). Therefore, the application of SWOT analysis in the field of basin management in determining the optimal conditions and logical guidelines with appropriate executive and legal support, alignment between legislative, executive, supervisory organizations and the interpretation and analysis of the current conditions governing the basin, especially in the field of comprehensive studies and even The evaluation of the system letters and the description of the study services will be in different stages of justification, semi-detailed and detailed-executive (Chang, 2006 & Huang). Therefore, the use of new methods in the review of plans and programs can be very beneficial in order to achieve the goals of management. Based on the SWOT model, appropriate strategies are developed to achieve maximum strengths and opportunities and minimize weaknesses and threats (Nikolaou et al, 2010). It is necessary to set laws and extensive trainings and simultaneously conduct studies with the mentioned approach to understand the results obtained from it (Afkhami, 2018). In this research, SWOT and QSPM models were used to determine the appropriate strategies for determining adaptation patterns to water scarcity and drought in Lake Urmia. After collecting and analyzing the information obtained from the questionnaires using SPSS software, the total and average scores obtained for each factor were calculated, as well as the normalized weight along with the weighted score using EXPERT CHOICE software. Then, based on the ranking of the weighted points from the highest to the lowest, the top 5 strategies were determined in terms of the highest weighted points for each of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Then the factors identified in the four modes of SO (offensive strategies), WO (conservative strategies), ST (competitive strategies) and WT (defensive strategies) were linked.

In order to carry out the applied model of the research, first the current situation of the basin was investigated, then based on the models and patterns of management and strategic planning, environmental and internal factors were investigated, and by determining the strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities, it was analyzed. The findings of the analysis using the SWOT model and its related matrices include: evaluation matrices of external and internal factors and the combination of both, and finally, the QSPM quantitative strategic planning matrix is ​​prepared. To determine the strategy, examining the internal and external factors alone is not the answer, and to identify the areas that can be improved, in addition to the SWOT model, it is necessary to analyze it using the quantitative strategic planning matrix or QSPM. For this reason, after examining the SWOT matrix, the QSPM analysis method is used. In fact, the research application model is obtained from the combination of the two matrices of SWOT strategic analysis and QSPM quantitative strategic planning.

The studies conducted show that 10 factors have been identified as strengths and 17 factors have been identified as weaknesses to determine patterns of adaptation to water scarcity and drought based on the strategic management approach. Also, among the external factors (opportunities), 15 factors have been identified and 9 factors have been identified as threats.The most important factor among the strengths of 1-preventing new development in the agricultural sector and 2-stopping all dam construction projects has been identified in the study. On the other hand, the most important weaknesses have been identified: 1- the creation of a future research center in the environmental organization and 2- the pathology of the social effects caused by the drying up of the lake. The most important opportunity for Lake Urmia 1- Education and raising awareness 2- Applying ecosystem-based management has been identified in contrast to the most important threat to the basin of Lake Urmia 1- Increasing water extraction from underground sources (drilling illegal wells) and 2- The planting of non-native and aquatic species has been identified.Also, based on the sum total of internal and external factors, the scope of determining the strategy was determined. As explained in the methodology section of this research, the IFE-EFE matrix is ​​used to determine the range, and according to the calculations, the strategy range was placed in a conservative position. Therefore, WO strategies will be used for ranking and prioritizing strategies for the consistent management of Lake Urmia.In the next step, quantitative strategic planning matrix or QSPM was formed. In the quantitative strategic planning process, different strategies are examined and the best ones are selected. Meanwhile, in order to evaluate the attractiveness of each of the strategic factors in Table 4, a quantitative matrix for determining strategies compatible with water scarcity and drought for the management of Lake Urmia along with the attractiveness scores and other calculations is provided.

In this research, which was carried out in order to formulate and prioritize the strategy and patterns of adaptation to water shortage and drought in the Urmia catchment area, according to the different coefficients assigned to different internal and external factors, each of the influencing variables in the form of standardized matrices (matrix of internal factors and foreign) were measured and evaluated. The results obtained from the total weighted points of the matrix of internal factors showed that the management of the Urmia Lake catchment area has weaknesses in terms of adaptation to water shortage and drought in terms of internal factors, and in fact, the amount of weaknesses is more than the amount of strengths. Also, the results obtained from the total weighted points of the matrix of external factors showed that the compiled patterns are facing opportunities in terms of external factors. In other words, managers' advancement opportunities have a higher influence than threatening factors. The simultaneous analysis of internal and external factor matrices showed the general situation of the strategies related to the pattern of adaptation to water shortage and drought in the conservative area.QSPM matrix calculations in Table 5 showed that among the optimal WO strategies, priority is related to WO5, WO2, WO3, WO1 and WO4 strategies respectively. Therefore, in order to develop patterns of adaptation to water scarcity and drought in Lake Urmia, first of all, policies should be applied in the direction of changing the cultivation pattern by identifying salt-tolerant species suitable to the conditions of the region. Then apply ecosystem-oriented management by studying and implementing the national park's ecological protection program. In the next stage, the preparation of the plan to increase employment and alternative livelihoods should be done with the participation of the people, and finally, the prevention of unauthorized withdrawals from surface water should be implemented by applying integrated management and reforming the structure of the country's divisions, as well as organizing wells and installing volume smart meters in order to establish the water market.

As an undeniable environmental phenomenon, climate change can be defined as a reversible change or variability in the average climate and its relevant variables, including the temperature, precipitation, humidity, climate patterns, wind, radiation, etc., which lasts for a long period of time. Located in a special geographical location that suffers from insufficient precipitation, Iran faces inappropriate distribution of rainfall temporally and spatially. On the other hand, the world seems to be facing new challenges in terms of water resources. Moreover, the most important consequence of the change in the hydrological cycle is the tendency toward extreme events ​​such as torrential rains, widespread droughts, and in some cases, regional wetlands. In this regard, it can be said that the frequency and severity of floods are among the terrible or deadly natural disasters brought about by climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the best probability for the distribution of flood discharges, measure the best probability distribution for management and planning in cases where climate change occurs, and finally assess the frequency and severity of floods in Iran.

To analyze the floods' frequency and severity under different climate change scenarios, the minimum and maximum values of precipitation and temperature were measured using the CanESM2 general circulation model under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios and the SDSM4.2.9 linear multiple regression downscaling model. Then, the collected precipitation data was processed and analyzed and the flood pattern was simulated for future periods via NetSTORM software (separating the rainfall from the hourly data). Moreover, the HEC-HMS model was used to simulate floods in basic and future periods. Accordingly, the SCS method, the Clark unit hydrograph method, and the Muskingum method were calibrated and evaluated to calculate the infiltration, convert the rainfall to runoff, and rout the river, respectively. Finally, to analyze the floods' frequency and severity, the probabilistic distribution function was fitted for the future periods' baseline data and propagation scenarios using the SMADA software for different statistical distributions (normal, two- and three-parameter log-normal, Pearson type III, Log-Pearson Type III and Gumbel), followed by the selection of the best-fit distribution model based on the RMSE and MSE tests.

The results of the climatic model showed that under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the maximum temperature rate would increase in 2011-2055-and 2056-2100 by 3.02˚C, 3.27˚C, and 3.2˚C, and 5.47˚C, respectively. Furthermore, the minimum temperature rate would increase in the same periods by 0.62, 0.87, and 1.1 and 2.82 degrees Celsius, respectively. However, the monthly precipitation data did not reveal any specific trend throughout the future periods.The Emamah watershed's data concerning the flood discharge and maximum daily precipitation rate during the study period (1999-2019) were used to select flood and pervasive events. The predicted data were then analyzed under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios at five separate periods. Finally, the selected events' data were imported to the HEC-HMS model and simulated. After selecting the flood events with the highest magnitude compared to other events, they were decomposed into one-hour or fewer rainfall events using the NETSTORM model. Then the flood discharge values were calculated ​​for the base and future periods and their probabilistic distribution function was obtained through the SMADA software. Finally, the Pearson type III distribution, the best distribution among normal, two-and three-parameter lognormal, Pearson type 3, Log-Pearson Type 3, and Gamble distributions were selected for each base and future time series using the goodness-of-fit test.According to the results of the best frequency distribution, flood values ​​were estimated with return periods of 2, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 200 years. Moreover, one third of the floods with a 2-year return period witnessed an increase in discharge rate compared to the base period. However, the discharge rate decreased or remained unchanged in floods with other return periods. On the other hand, floods estimated with 10 and 25-year return periods were increased in two-thirds of the periods, the highest increase of which occurred in the second period under the RCP8.5 scenarios by 12.68 and 25.76 percent, respectively. It should also be noted that the highest chances of increase in flood occurrence with a return period of 200 years belonged to the second period by 56.12% increase rate and 10.07 m2 discharge rate under the RCP8.5 scenarios.

throughout the next hundred years, climate change would experience significant changes in precipitation patterns, leading to the risks of severe floods and droughts. Moreover, the results of the analysis and study of climate change indicated that the temperature increasing trend in the periods under the studied scenarios and that the biggest increase belonged to the RCP8.5 scenarios. It was also found that the temperature rate would increase more in the period 2056-2100 compared to the 2011-2055 period. However, the results of precipitation simulation under the scenarios did not show a definite trend for the future periods, with the precipitation increasing and decreasing in different months of the year. On the other hand, the simulation of basin floods for the future periods and the comparison of peak discharge values within the future and the observation periods indicated a change in the regime of river flood discharges. Accordingly, the maximum discharge rate increased in the constant returns period. Furthermore, the discharge rates significantly increased in the maximum constant flow period with an increase in the return period.

In this study, to simulate streamflow time series in ungauged catchments, the parameters of two HBV and IHACRES hydrological models were transfer from gauged (donor) to ungauged catchments using three main regionalization methods including Physical Similarity (PS), Multiple Regression (MR), Spatial Proximity (SP) and an integrated method (IDW-PS). This study was carried out using daily data including precipitation, temperature and evaporation related to at 21 sub-catchments in Hamoun-Jazmourian River Basin in southeast Iran over a 14-year period (2004-2016). Regionalization methods were studied under three modes: temporal (transferring across different periods), spatial (transferring between same calibration periods but different sites) and spatiotemporal (transferring across both different periods and sites). The results indicated that: (1) the more complex HBV model showed better results than the simple model, so that the average NSE coefficients in two different periods in the HBV model were 0.625, 0.57 and 0.5 for calibration, validation and the most appropriate regionalization method (physical similarity) respectively, while these values for IHACRES model were 0.57, 0.51 and 0.46, (2) multiple regression method with mean NSE coefficients equal to 0.2 and 0.24 for HBV and IHACRES models showed the worst regionalization results and (3) the HBV parameters related to snow and runoff components, were associated with highest and lowest uncertainties respectively, while for the IHACRES, the most and least robustness parameters were plant stress threshold factor, f and the proportion of slow flow to total flow, vs respectively.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the trend of hydro-climatic variables, detect the occurrence of climate change and subscale the climatic variables during future periods and evaluate the intensity and magnitude of future floods. The trend of hydroclimatic variables was first investigated using Mann-Kendall and Sen tests. Then, the output data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation of CANESM2 general circulation model were sub-scaled under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios using SDSM 4.2.9 model. Later, HEC-HMS model was used to evaluate the intensity and magnitude of events in the Emameh watershed in future periods. The results showed that 20.8 and 14.6% of the maximum temperature and minimum temperature series had a significant upward trend. While 5.5% of the rainfall time series had a significant upward trend. Therefore, unlike the temperature variable, the monthly precipitation variable did not have a definite trend during the observation period as in future periods, in some months it showed an increasing trend and in some months it showed a decreasing trend. However, the maximum and minimum temperatures under the diffusion scenarios increased in the following periods. The peak flow and volume ​​of the simulated floods, under the most severe events in each period, was significantly smaller for future periods than for the observation period. Comparison of the most severe events with each other in different periods showed an increase in the volume and magnitude of the flood in the RCP2.6 scenario compared with RCP8.5. Therefore, in the context of climate change, the number of floods and their destructive power has increased and managers and planners are recommended to pay attention to this, especially in urban areas.

In this research, estimation of the Runoff Coefficient (RC) is carried out depending on land cover. Initially, RC modeling was performed using 54 hourly rainfall and corresponding runoff data during the period 1987–2010 in the Kasilian watershed. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models and effective factors including rainfall intensity, Φ index (the average loss), five-day previous rainfall and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were used to estimate RC. The results showed that the ANN model was more efficient than the other two models and had Mean Bias Error (MBE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) equal to 0.08, 0.85, 0.84 and 0.37, respectively for the training phase and 0.12, 0.76, 0.74 and 0.47 for the test phase. In general, it is suggested that RC plays a major role in hydrological mechanisms and flooding. Thus, optimal estimation of RC can be helpful in better management of soil and water conservation and erosion and sediment management in this area.

The application of hydrological models in watersheds has always been considered by water resources researchers. This subject is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions due to the greater complexity of hydrological processes in these region. In this research, the efficiency of WetSpa distributed hydrological model in Menderjan semi-arid basin has been evaluated and the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters have been performed using PEST software.  Moreover, the efficiency of the Extended Kalman filter in improving the results has been investigated. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for the calibration and validation periods was 0.63 and 0.58, respectively, confirming that the WetSpa model has a good performance in runoff simulation in Menderjan basin. The results of sensitivity analysis also show the high sensitivity of Kg and K_ss parameters and the low sensitivity of G_max and P_max parameters in the study area. Moreover, the results of uncertainty analysis are generally consistent with the results of sensitivity analysis and indicate the high certainty of sensitive parameters and the low certainty of non-sensitive parameters. The results of applying Kalman filter also show the improvement of the results. So that the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient increased from 0.63 to 0.71 in the calibration period and from 0.58 to 0.69 in the validation period.

Nowadays, around the world, environmental impacts, as one of the most important dimensions of sustainable development, play a significant role in strategic decision makings. Water resources management is one of the most sensitive measures due to its bi-directional relationship with sustainable development and also as a facilitator of this path, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. One of the main purpose of the LCA approach is to assess the environmental impact of emissions. In this study, environmental compatibility of mechanical watershed management measures to manage water resources is investigated by using this approach. Therefore, material flow, energy and environmental impacts of all stages of the life cycle of one unit of flood spreading system (located in Daefeh watershed in Rafsanjan plain) were analyzed based on IMPACT 2002+ method available in the Simapro software. The results showed that the earthen structure of the flood spreading system with 8.37 kPt environmental impact is the hot spot of this system (Mostly due to the earthworks), including 91.34% of environmental burdens in the construction phase and 55.2% of the total emission effects. The findings of this research showed that the environmental consequences of emissions during the life cycle of this system were 15.2 kPt. Construction process stage (with the highest amount of environmental burdens in each impact category except for resource depletion) 39.2%, use stage 31.3%, extraction and productivity of materials 23.3% and transportation stage 0.93% of Environmental burdens were allocated in this study. The environmental consequences of emissions in the categories of adverse effects on human health, climate change, resource depletion and ecosystem depletion of the flood spreading system are 6.63, 3.54, 3.06 and 1.94 kPt, respectively. Also the results of this study will be useful for evaluating the environmental effects of different structures. Finally, it is suggested that in the integrated watershed management, which is responsible for protecting our nation's natural resources, life cycle assessment approach be developed and the green building approach could be implemented, such as selecting the design discharge with environmental considerations, selecting quantities and types of environmentally friendly materials.

It is necessary to study and analyze the frequency of extreme rainfall events to determine the best-fit distribution that can predict the occurrence of the certain natural phenomena such as rainfall, flood, etc. In this study assessed to determine the best-fit distribution, the frequency analysis of threshold rainfalls considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, four empirical formulas (Hazen, Weibull, Tukey, and Cunnane) were used to estimate the return periods of threshold precipitation. Also, various probabilistic distributions including normal distributions, log normal (LN), log normal 3 (LN3), Gumble, Pearson type 3 (P3), and log Pearson type 3 (LP3) were applied to predict the distribution of threshold rainfalls. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to determine the best-fit probability distribution function (PDF). Results revealed that the Hazen formula obtained the most estimate in the period of observation and future periods, and the near future (2015-2040) and the far future periods (2041-2065). According to the results, the LN3, LP3 and GEV probabilistic distributions presented the best PDF for threshold rainfalls in most periods. Among the best-fit distributions, LN3 was received 45 percent and LP3 and GEV received 20 and 30 percent of the best result, respectively. These results indicate there are severe abnormalities in the threshold precipitations, especially in high amounts. The results of this study can be used to develop more accurate models against the dangers, and damages caused by Extreme weather and flood.

It is necessary to study the behavior of the river under the effect of climate change, especially the runoff in the future periods. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on the runoff of Zarrineh river basin (the largest sub-basin of Lake Urmia) considering the General Circulation Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, temperature and precipitation changes in the future periods in Zarrineh river basin were studied using climate data of Had GEM2-ES model during the period 2025-2050. The Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) was used to downscale climate data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on runoff the basin. Also, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly runoff. Then, downscaled results of the general circulation model interoduced to the SWAT model. And runoff changes at the outlet of the basin were simulated during 2025-2050. The results showed that the SWAT model has good performance in runoff simulation. The average results of the CCT model revealed that the maximum and minimum temperatures would increase in 2025-2050. The annual precipitation could increase 3.6% under RCP 2.6 and decrease 2.9% under RCP 8.5. The seasonal trends in the runoff showed a decreasing trend in winter, spring and summer while an increasing trend in autumn. Annual runoff under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 has decreased 6.5% and 30% respectively. Which subsequently reduces the discharge of this river to Lake Urmia.

Surface water resulted from rainfall-runoff responses in a basin is a potential water source that if it is managed properly can be useful to demand secure. In this study, hub coating algorithm (PR) and geographic information system (GIS) were used to identify areas with potential in Birjand plain for rainwater harvesting. The weight of 18 decision-making indices was calculated and prioritized using TOPSIS method.  After determining the weight of each of these indices for locating rainwater harvesting potential, indices maps were prepared in Arc GIS 10.3 software and then for final mapping of rainwater harvesting potential of Birjand plain, points having common characteristics of 6 highest weight indices were determined. In total, 220 points were extracted as the best points from the TOPSIS method. Using the hub overlay method with algorithm (pr) and coding in Matlab environment, out of 220 points, 20 points were identified as suitable locations (hubs). Finally, the final map was drawn by inserting these points into ArcGIS software. The results showed that in the north and northwest of Birjand, the soil has a high capacity for rainwater harvesting, these areas mainly have sandy-pebbly soil texture, high permeability, moderate rainfall and residential land use.

Soil quality, as a factor, is changing due to variation of soil inherent characteristics and the type of management practices on the soil. Integrated Quality Index and Nemero Quality Index were applied to evaluate the influence of land use types, different irrigation managements, and types of cultivated products on the soil quality in Semnan region.  After describing 13 soil profiles in five selected crop fields and orchards, soil samples were taken from different horizons and 14 properties efective on the soil quality were determined and the proposed indecs were calculated. The results showed that the quality of top layers of agricultural lands are classified as II and III degree, while the top layer and sublayer of garden lands are classified as IV degree due to lack of profile evolution, low organic carbon and high salinity. The highest average soil quality indices were assigned to alfalfa (flood irrigation) with 0.67; followed by barley (sprinkler irrigation) with 0.59, olive orchard (drip irrigation) with 0.39 and olive orchard (flood irrigation) with 0.32. This finding indicates the positive effect of cover crops on land reclamation of Semnan region. The effect of irrigation system on soil quality indices did not show any significant difference among them, as the flood irrigation in alfalfa and olive farms showed the highest and the lowest soil quality indecs, respectively. Also, there was no significant difference in soil quality of olive orchards under drip irrigation vs. flood irrigation. Soil quality indecs make opportunity to agricultural managers to choose appropriate management strategies and monitoring the changes in the soil quality.

Over the past few decades due to population growth and urban development, urban runoff has increased and led to different problems such as inundation of urban pathways, dissemination of environmental pollutions and flood hazards. In order to urban runoff management, it is necessary to estimate runoff rate correctly. SWMM is one of the most widely used models in estimating urban runoff. The goal of this research is to evaluate the performance of SWMM model in simulating flow rate in an urban watershed in District 22 of Tehran. At first, model required parameters were calculated. For model evaluation and validation, in three events, runoff was measured in the watershed outlet and was compared with simulated runoff. The model validation results showed that the simulated flow rates had good adaptation with the observed ones. The validation results were used for estimating optimum values of model input parameters. The results of SWMM model evaluation confirm model accuracy with NS= 0.72 and RSR= 0.53 and indicate the model ability in simulating urban runoff. So, SWMM model can be used for urban runoff management plans and designing urban runoff drainage networks in this area.

Satellite remote sensing methods Especially the TRMM satellite used to estimate the precipitation of watersheds with a dispersed rainfall station. It is necessary to compare the rainfall data of the TRMM satellite with the observation precipitation data.we first used four statistical methods Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand, Pettit, and Von Neuman, the accuracy and quality of precipitation data of rainfall stations in the Gorganroud watershed was investigated in order to predict the accuracy and performance of the TRMM satellite rainfall data. After extracting the results of homogeneous tests, by comparing with the data of adjacent stations, a suspicious station was removed from the study due to the lack of conformity with the data of adjacent stations. Then, in order to evaluate the TRMM satellite performance in estimating monthly precipitation, it was compared with the observational precipitation data using Bias, RMSE, R2 and NSE. The results showed that the R2 value for all rain gauge stations in the Gorganroud watershed is between 0.31 and 0.75. RMSE was obtained between 15.85 and 56.82. The rain gauge stations located in the Gorganroud watershed have a NSE value of -0.82 to 0.66. The Bias index is between -55.74 and 69.01. Also, the R2, RMSE, NSE and Bias values for the whole Gorganroud basin were obtained 0.79, 20.94, 0.57 and -28.13 respectively. The results of the TRMM efficiency evaluation in the monthly rainfall estimation showed that it has a good performance in estimating the precipitation and is very valuable for areas without a station.

The sustainability of soil, especially in fragile ecosystems, is an indispensable indicator of sustainable land management that depends on the physical, chemical and biological properties of the soil. In order to study the soil sustainability in Semnan desert region of farms, gardens and rangelands as arenas located on an educational farm with different irrigation administrations, the Sustainability Index (SI) and the Cumulative Ranting (CR9 &CR11) were used. Exploring the crust and sampling of surface and subsurface horizons of selected areas and measuring 12 important and effective characteristics of soil physical properties, the indices were calculated in each area and the effects of different types of land use on soil stability were investigated. The results showed that the SI in the surface layer of arable land due to the impact of cultivation and the positive role of organic matter was above one, and in the rest of the land was less than one which indicating the instability of the soil. According to the CR results, surface and subsurface layers of soil were not found in very stable and stable classes in the studied lands. The CR results also showed that the stability soil in the multi cultivates farm is a better condition, it may be due to its positive role in increasing soil correction factors compared to other lands. Correlation analysis of the indices showed that soil organic carbon, structural index, electrical conductivity, sodium adsorption ratio and mean weight diameter have a direct and more effective impact on soil sustainability.

Determining the vulnerability and risk of groundwater is a good approach for groundwater management with reliable and accurate models, taking into account surface pollutants, the ability to contaminate groundwater, and the pathways affecting wells. In the present study, this evaluation is based on a new index with three factors of pollutant point source density, intrinsic vulnerability and contamination range of wells presented for a groundwater aquifer in Ardabil. A modified version of the Drastic method was used to map the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability of the study area to an area of 886 square kilometers. Density of point source pollutants were measured such as industries, villages, gas stations in the sub basins and used as potential indicators of point source pollutants. Numerical modeling was also performed to determine the catchment areas using MODFLOW and MODPATH models. The spatial and descriptive integration of these three factors created a mechanism and vulnerability index for assessing the risks of groundwater contamination as well as identifying and prioritizing areas requiring groundwater monitoring. The parameters used in this method were sensitivity analysis. The results of this index were calibrated based on nitrate and chloride concentration which had a positive correlation with the vulnerability index. Groundwater vulnerability and risk index values vary from zero to one thousand with respect to the integration of 3 factors with a value range of 10. The value of this index was low in most of the lowlands. But maximum values of this index were in populated areas, high roads and industrial areas in Ardabil plain. In general, according to this indicator, Ardabil plain is at low vulnerability and risk. This research will lead to a rigorous and cost-effective approach to protecting drinking and agricultural water resources and achieving sustainable groundwater for future generations.