batol zeynali

Climate change has a direct impact on hydrological components and water resources and plays an important role in aggravating possible risks such as drought and floods. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the effects of climate change on water components such as runoff. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) and the amount of runoff in Kiwi Chai basin from an environmental point of view. The hydrological model of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyze the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Kiwi Chai basin, which is one of the Sefidroud sub-basins. Runoff simulation by applying climate change conditions for models (EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM) under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in three periods (2040-2021), (2041-2060), ( 2061-2080) and statistical analysis was performed to identify which climate model is more consistent with the changes in the mean and standard deviation of the historical series. An increasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in average annual temperature were predicted in the early, middle, and late 21st century. The results of simulation of basin runoff with SWAT model also showed a significant decrease in basin runoff in future periods compared to the base period. These findings provide local water management authorities with useful information to aid decision-making in the face of climate change.

The sun is known as the source of energy, the beginning of life and the source of all other energies. The global radiation of the sun is considered one of the fundamental structures of every climate. Therefore, knowing the characteristics and predicting these basic structures has a great impact on energy-related planning. The use of satellite images and remote sensing models as a suitable and low-cost tool for estimating solar radiation has been in recent years. In order to carry out this research, the images of 2020 Landsat 8 satellite, OLI sensor, TIRS sensor and Sabal algorithm were used. ENVI software was used for geometric, atmospheric and radiometric corrections of satellite images, as well as the execution of calculations related to the Sabal model, and ArcGIS software was used for creating a database, spatial analysis, cartographic operations and finally implementing the model. The results show that the average maximum incoming shortwave radiation was 918 watts per square meter on 08/09/2020 and the lowest value was 370 watts per square meter on 10/28/2020. Meanwhile, the highest amount of net radiation on 09/08/2020 was calculated as 232 km and the lowest amount was calculated as 13 km on 28/10/2020. The difference in the amount of net radiation reaching the ground in the studied area, It is caused by the difference in the angle of the sun and the number of sunny hours in different months of the year. Finally, it can be concluded that the solar radiation in the region has the necessary potential for the implementation of solar photovoltaic projects in the year under review.

Increases of CO2 concentrations and other greenhouse gases will have a significant effect on global climate which in turn influence recharge to the aquifer. Groundwater recharge plays a vital role in replenishing aquifers, which impacts groundwater resources availability. A large amount of water needed in different parts of arid and semi-arid areas is provided through groundwater resources. Understanding the process of groundwater recharge is fundamental to the management of groundwater resources. The quantity and quality of water resources have been reduced by unprotected exploitation in the recent decades. In addition, climate change and global warming will increase the severity of problem. Therefore, predicting the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge play an important role in the future management of these resources. While climate change affects surface water resources directly through changes in the major long-term climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, the relationship between the changing climate variables and groundwater is more complicated and difficult to quantify. In this paper, the climate of Shiramin basin in Iran is studied with respect to changes in the precipitation and temperature data. As another aim of this study, we use the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) to simulate the recharge, runoff and evapotranspiration in Shiramin aquifer.

The Shiramin basin is located in the northwest region of Iran. This basin is a sub basin of the Urmia lake basin. The study is based on the data from Tabriz station, and a statistical weather generating tool, SDSM is used to downscale the climate change based on the HADCM3 model under A2 and B1 scenarios. To evaluate the performance of different models and to draw a comparison, were used evaluation indices including standard Error (SE) and Root mean square error (RMSE). In this study, the physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used to estimate regional groundwater recharge via a water budget approach. Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) computer program is a quasi-two-dimensional hydrologic model of water movement across, into, through and out of landfills. HELP3 requires various climatic, soil, and design data to generate daily estimates of water movement through a soil column In general, HELP3 simulates all of the important processes in the hydrologic cycle including surface runoff, evapotranspiration, vegetative growth, soil moisture storage, and vertical unsaturated drainage for each discrete layer soil column. Darcy’s law models the vertical water movement for each soil layer using unsaturated hydraulic conductivity computed by Campbell hydraulic equation along with Brooks-Corey parameters. Daily infiltration is determined indirectly from a surface water balance by assuming that infiltration is equal to the sum of rainfall and snowmelt, minus the sum of runoff, surface storage, surface evaporation, and plant transpiration. Vertical percolation leaving the bottom of the deepest model layer is assumed to reach water table and eventually become groundwater recharge.

According to the simulation of the HadCM3 model under the A2 and B1 scenarios during the simulated period, the average monthly temperature in all months will increase in the study area. In both scenarios, maximum increase in average temperature and maximum decrease in precipitation respectively will occur in July and August compared to the base period. The highest percentage of precipitation in the Shiramin basin will be consumed for evapotranspiration due to global warming. The highest percentage of evapotranspiration for A2 and B1 will be occur respectively in 2039 and 2040 years. In other words, in forecast years over 80% of the precipitation will evaporate. In A2 scenario year of 2038, with minimum average annual precipitation and year of 2027 with maximum average annual precipitation are respectively as the driest and wettest years in terms of rainfall. Despite more precipitation in year of 2027, large amount of precipitation will be consumed for evaporation. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent of ground frost and shift the spring melt from spring toward winter, therefore in both 2027 and 2037 years the maximum runoff and recharge will occur in winter. Under B1scenario, 2038 will be the driest and 2033 the wettest in terms of precipitation. Recharge and evapotranspiration rate in both low and high precipitation conditions under B1 scenario is higher than A2 scenario. Study of seasonal recharge indicates that in the study area, the maximum groundwater recharge will be done in a very short period of time and in winter due to the existence of more water in the system and the inactivity of evapotranspiration. In the summer months, due to the lack of precipitation, runoff and groundwater recharge will not change compared to the base period and their amount will be zero.

Groundwater recharge is a fundamental component in the water balance of any watershed. However, because it is nearly impossible to measure recharge, and in some cases, base flow has been used as an approximation of recharge. In this research, the global atmospheric circulation model, HadCm3, under A2 and B1 scenarios were used to study the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration, runoff, and recharge via precipitation in Shiramin basin for period 2020-2040. SDSM model used for downscaling. The result of downscaling model showed that under both scenarios, in the study area, the average annual temperature will increase and average annual precipitation will decrease compared to the base period. The HELP model was used to simulate the amount of recharge, runoff and evapotranspiration in the future. The results showed that due to increase temperature, significant amounts of precipitation would be evaporated. In addition to reducing precipitation and increasing temperature, hydraulic properties and soil moisture play an important role in recharge. During the period of 2040-2020, the maximum annual recharge in A2 and B1 scenarios are respectively 12.5 and 15.93 percent of the total annual precipitation. Minimum recharge for A2 scenario is 3.7 and for B1 scenario is equal to 6.6 percent of the total annual precipitation. The results of this study could advise designers and managers of this region to take suitable actions in securing the water supply.

Coordination between the temporal changes of two distant points, which is mainly used for pressure changes, is called remote connection. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variability of temperature and precipitation parameters of Ardabil, Meshginshahr, Sarab and Harris stations from two remote connection models of North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Pacific Decades Index using Pearson torque correlation method and synoptic analysis. For this purpose, data related to the two mentioned indicators were prepared from the Nova site for the period 2009-2018. Also, for this statistical period, data related to temperature and precipitation parameters were obtained from Ardabil Meteorological Department. Then, after standardization of temperature and precipitation, using Pearson correlation method for NAO index, it was found that the temperature of all stations in June, October and February precipitation of Ardabil station had the highest significant direct correlation with 99 and 95% confidence level with this index. The AMO index also showed a direct relationship with the January temperature of Harris station with only 5% probability of error. In order to investigate the effect of these patterns on the studied parameters of NETCDF data, monthly mean sea level pressure, geopotential level of 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall water were obtained from Nova site and synoptic maps were drawn in Gardes software environment. The results showed that when NAO index is in negative phase and AMO index is in hot phase, the dominant system in the studied areas is low thermal pressure and rotational conditions prevail and temperature and rainfall increase and wetting occurs, unlike when NAO index is in phase. The AMO index is positive in the cold phase, with the dominance of high-pressure systems and rotation conditions in the study areas, the temperature and rainfall have decreased and the drought conditions have been determined.

Drought is a climate phenomenon with a lack of moisture and rainfall compared to normal conditions. This phenomenon strongly affects all aspects of human activity. In this Article, were discussed the drought situation in Urmia Lake using MATLAB software and system capabilities combined indicators SEPI on two-time scales 6 and 12 months. Therefore was used climate data of temperature and precipitation for 5 synoptic stations basin of Lake Urmia (Tabriz, Maragheh, Urmia, Saghez, and Mahabad). Results indicated that SEPI index show features of SPI and SEPI index. As well as it enters temperatures as a powerful factor in the drought severity in order to the investigation of the drought conditions; So SEPI drought index is better than the SPI for the study of drought. Drought studies on SEPI index indicated that drought trend in Urmia Lake Basin is increasing. The temperature has an increasing trend with more intensity. The longest duration of drought in the basin of Lake Urmia is in Urmia station on a scale of 6 months from May 2005 to November 2006 for 19 months. The highest percentage of drought observed in Urmia and the lowest percentage in Mahabad stations.