فهرست مطالب ebrahim kardgar

The market share of life insurance and savings from the portfolio of the insurance industry is considered as the criteria for the development of the countries. The share of life insurance and savings in the production insurance premium of the insurance industry has always been less than 16% in Iran, which is very low compared to the share of life insurance and savings in most of the countries wherein the share is more than 50%. The purpose of this research is to propose a dynamic model for analyzing the sale of life insurance and savings according to the special social, economic and cultural structure of Iranian society and the structure of insurance companies in the country.

Design/methodology/approach:

 In this study, first the variables affecting the sale of life insurance and savings in insurance companies and their interrelationships have been identified by reviewing the previous studies and interviewing insurance industry experts. Then, the variables including an insurance company, network sales, competitors, community members, and their items were identified. Finally, the circular causal model and the state-flow diagram of the life insurance and savings sales system in Iran have been drawn and validated using the system dynamics approach.

The results were analyzed based on four scenarios in a ten-year horizon. Based on the results, it was found that insurance premium collection, investment rate and profitability of mathematical reserves, Central Insurance of Iran investment rate regarding the income received from life insurance and savings to introduce and make people aware of the benefits of the product, affected the share of production insurance premiums and the number of life insurance policies and savings. Bank interest did not have much effect on life insurance and savings. In addition, Central Insurance of Iran could play a more effective role than the insurance companies in creating the attractiveness of this field among the insurance company's shareholders, sales network, and society.

Research limitations/implications: 

Major research limitations were the complications and lack of transparency of the regulations related to the investment of the resources received by insurance companies from the sale of life insurance and savings, as well as the lack of transparency of the investment rate regulations of the Central Insurance for the development of life insurance and savings from the previous restrictions.

Practical implications:

 Banks and bank interest were not strong competitors for insurance companies. Also, the reduction of bank interest was one of the most important factors affecting the growth of society's willingness to buy life insurance and savings, but this factor alone could not increase production insurance premiums or other key variables. The investment profit of mathematical reserves allocated to policyholders could be used as an important advertising tool by the insurance company. Increasing the profitability of reserves by investing in suitable markets increases the production insurance premium and other key and significant variables.

Social implications: 

Based on the results, it is possible to increase the share of life insurance and savings by affecting social and cultural variables such as the society's awareness of the benefits of life insurance, which shows the mutual effects of economic, social and cultural factors on the growth of the share of life insurance premiums and savings.

Originality/value: 

A dynamic model was proposed based on the mutual and dynamic effects of economic, social, cultural, and managerial factors. Also, it provides an opportunity for the managers of insurance and central insurance companies to make their decisions on the numerical number of insurance policies, and the amount of production insurance premiums.

One of the key topics and the most important tools to determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of each organization and company is the evaluation the performance of organizational activities that rating and ranking follows the internal and external goals. In this regard insurance companies similarly are looking for evaluation of their branches through scoring, ranking and identifying the top branches. Using scoring and then ranking branches based on performance evaluation, not only helps to identify internal and external situation and provides the possibility of planning, implementation, monitoring, control, and to improve performance, but also it will be impossible comparison of branches .Since now scoring of insurance companies branches in Iran were done under a traditional framework, that apply an on-theoretical approach and based on experimental expertise ,in this study by using GMDH neural network, f furthermore, in the process of change from a traditional framework to the systematic mechanism, we extract indicators of evaluation of the performance of the Dana Insurance company and also objective function and effective variables were determined. Moreover, results show that GMDH neural network is an appropriate alternative for traditional framework and based on this new approach, we found the ability of forecasting budget and profit.

While many studies have been conducted regarding the relationship between life insurance and economic growth based on mainstream economics in the context of macroeconomic growth models, less attention has been paid to the aspects of its development. This paper tries to appraise the impact of life insurance development on national product. Accordingly the Human Development Index as an indicator, has been used for assessing the impact of life insurance on national product and the causal relationship between them is analyzed. The results indicated that there is a nonlinear two-way causal relationship between human development index and per capita life insurance. In addition, our results indicated a more significant effect of life insurance on human development in Iran.