hamed farnam

Today, geo-economics strategies play a significant role in the global economy and new dimensions have been considered, including the distribution of energy resources and their trade movements. In this study, evaluating the factors affecting the volume of oil trade in the corridors in the current period and till 2040 perspective is sought through the gravity approach and using the panel data model in the period (2008- 2020). Reviewed oil trade flows of the area include: Middle East-Southeast Asia, Middle East-China, Middle East-Japan, Middle East-Europe, Middle East-India, Middle East-Singapore, Middle East-Africa, Middle East-Australia, Russia and CIS-India and Russia and CIS-Middle East. The required data were acquired from IEA, BP and WDI databases. The results obtained from this model reveal that the variables affecting oil trade between countries include the amount of GDP of the importing country, the share of oil in the energy consumption of exporting countries, and the share of oil in the energy consumption of importing countries. On the horizon of 2040, the Middle East-China oil trade is projected to rank first, the Middle East-Southeast Asia oil trade to be ranked second, and the Middle East-India oil trade to be ranked third.

This paper seeks to investigate and analyze the money demand function and its Engle curve in Iran. Money demand function and its Engle curve have been estimated through EASI demand system by making use of monthly data 1995:04-2007:03. The investigation of money demand function shows that monetary elements are weak substitutions of each other. Thus، some policy recommendation is provided on the basis of estimated elasticity (Income، Price، cross Price، and Morishima). Moreover، the investigation of Engle curve reflects that by the increase of income، first، individuals extract their money from demand deposit. Secondly، investment in timed deposits increases and thirdly، no change is observed in the amount of money being held as currency and travel checks.

It is important to identify demand for money in a country as well as combination of the money saved by people and how to substitute them in order to formulate strategic monetary policies. It is very important to decision-makers to know how significant their decisions will be. Therefore, before making a decision, they must measure the impact of those decisions according to people’s behavior and offer the best proposal.This paper uses two flexible function forms to analyze demand for money: Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), and Leontief Model. It is necessary to select a suitable model to represent people’s behavioral model. Past models estimated demand for money in Iran without attention to functional forms of demand and did not consider weak substitution among monetary components of the system.In this study, we use AIDS and Leontief Model to test “weak monetary substitution component” theory. Findings uphold the hypothesis of the research. As for people’s sensitivity toward increased revenues, findings show traction of three components has been on the fall in recent years.Estimation of demand for money in Iran according to functional forms is done using monthly data series pertaining to 1995-2007. Finally, policy recommendations are provided on the basis of estimated parameters and various forms of traction (income, price, and Murishima Elasticities of Substitution).