فهرست مطالب hesameddin ghasemi

Iran’s economy is among the economies with low resilience and high vulnerability. Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. Economic Resilience which means enduring the effects of shocks and recovering quickly from economic shocks and returning to pre-crisis functioning, can help make the economy more resilient. Because different markets are related to this sector in various ways, in the event of a crisis or external shock and instability in this sector other sectors are affected as well; making the need to pay more attention to the stability of the sector and, to a greater degree, its resilience apparent. The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies affecting the resilience of Iran's government budget sector. For this purpose, a macro econometric model was designed for the Iran’s economic. The policy variables used are legal reserve rate, banking system debt to the central bank, government construction budget, government oil revenue, deposit interest rate and official exchange rate and identified appropriate policies to increase the resilience index of the government budget sector by applying different scenarios. As well as the implementation of the combined scenario for the government budget sector resilience index shows a 53.61% increase in the average. The results showed that in the event of a shock, it is possible to prevent a sharp decline in the resilience index of the government budget sector by using a combination of economic policies.

The purpose of this paper is to define and calculate Iran's budgeting system resilience index. Iran’s economy is among those with low resilience and high vulnerability. Economic resilience which means enduring the effects of economic shocks and recovering quickly from them to return to the pre-crisis functioning, can help make the economy more flexible. In the literature of economic resistance, the concept of economic resilience has been introduced as a comprehensive measure in the literature of economic stabilization. Economic resilience is the result of predicted policies, while economic vulnerability is one of the inherent characteristics of the economy. On the other hand, areas that reduce the ability to resist exogenous shocks and that cause the government budget sectors to be exposed to shocks and to be affected and lose their resistance recovery are referred to as areas of vulnerability. Because different markets are related to this sector in various ways, in the event of a crisis or external shock and instability in this sector (as was the case with UN Security Council sanctions and US sanctions) other sectors are affected as well. This makes the need to pay more attention to the stability of the sector and, to a greater degree, its resilience apparent. Since the estimation of the resilience index for Iran economy has been done in the macro studies in the past, identifying the resilience categories and the vulnerability of the budgeting system sectors and estimating the related index are innovations of this study. In order to calculate the budgeting system resiliency index, its constituents must be defined and identified. Grounded theory (GT) is used for this purpose. Accordingly, categories affecting resiliency components are studied and a conceptual model is presented to summarize the results. In order to quantify the concept of government budget resilience, a variable corresponding to the resilience concept is considered. By using Bayesian Model Averaging approach, the most important variables are identified and the normalized average of these variables is used to construct the index. The topics of government budget resilience were divided into four general categories: (1) budget provision; (2) budget allocation; (3) social, political, and economical institutions; (4) policy making and policy rules. A category-related variable is considered to represent the effects of that variable to illustrate the impact of that concept on the resilience of the government budget sector. For this purpose, Bayesian Model Averaging was used to identify unfragile variables (in terms of maintaining influence in the presence of other variables). The calculations were performed using 320,000 regressions and sampling. Four variables including oil revenue to total government revenue ratio, budget deficit to GDP ratio, inflation rate and current budget to development budget ratio were calculated. In the two steps of calculations, unfragile variables were calculated. To construct the index, the variables were normalized and averaged. The time series of government budget sector resilience index were calculated for the years 1973 to 2016. Four variables, as unfragile variables (this means that it retains its work as an effective factor in the resilience of the government budget sector in the presence of other variables and is meaningful), were identified in the presence of 18 variables, which shows that these variables should be emphasized more than others in assessing the effect of government budget sector. In this regard, decreased dependence of the budget on oil revenues, minimized government size and increased sensitivity in budget allocation are recommended to reduce the vulnerability. The sharp fall in the index after 2009 compared to its limited fluctuation between 1997 and 2008, the impact of economic uncertainty and external shocks such as oil revenue constraints (specifies the economy of Iran) indicates high vulnerability and low resilience to external shocks and internal crises.

Economic resilience refers to the ability to cope with various economic shocks and the extent of recovery after a crisis. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effective factors on Iran's economic resilience index. According to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the economic resilience components and indicator factors by using the bayesian model averaging approach. In the presence of 63 variables ,seven variables were identified which include: risk index, oil revenue to total government revenue ratio, growth rate of government oil revenues, inflation rate, the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, budget deficit to GDP ratio and the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, as the most important variables determining the resilience of the Iran's economy. Therefore, it is recommended to policy makers to reduce the vulnerability of economic sectors, by taking into account the impact of these variables.

an's trade system. Trade system vulnerabilities are considered as an important factor in reducing resilience. So, according to the existing resilience literature, and using the Grounded Theory approach, and the Bayesian Model Averaging approach, indicator factors were extracted. Four variables were identified in the presence of 23 variables; which include Risk index, oil export ratio to non-oil exports, free and official exchange rate differences, and Consuming imports to aggregate import ratio, as important variables. It shows that these variables should be considered more than other variables in assessing the effect of trade system.

The purpose of this paper is to define and calculate Iran's monetary and financial sector resilience index. So, according to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory (GT) approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the resilience components of the monetary and financial sector and Indicator factors were extracted using the bayesian model averaging approach. Five variables were identified in the presence of 22 variables, in the framework of the model's uncertainty and with an estimated three million and six hundred thousand regressions; which include the growth rate of government oil revenues, the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, Risk index, the ratio of bank debt to the central bank to the monetary base and the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, as non-fragile variables,(this means that it retains its work as an effective factor in the resilience of the monetary and financial sector in the presence of other variables and have meaning). Which shows that because of the probability of a higher uptake, these variables should be considered more than other variables in assessing the effect of monetary and financial sector. The time series of the index of monetary and financial sector resilience is calculated based on the normalized variables of these variables for the period from 1976 to 2016.

Nowadays, human development play a key role in Development studies. The man is the main pillar of sustainable Development. Human Development Index has been the most popular indicator of development. Knowing the variables involved in the estimation of human development index is essential in choosing the appropriate model that can accurately measure the human development index. In this paper, we consider the uncertainty modeling framework for study of the factors that affect the human development index. For this purpose, we use the Bayesian model averaging which is appropriate with the assumption of model uncertainty.In this study, by estimating 960000 regression equations, five variables are identified as non-fragile variables which is mentioned as follows: Growth of oil revenues, growth of Government health expenditure, Growth of primary education, Inflation, capital stock. Other variables lost their effect in the presence of non--fragile variables. Therefore, it can be concluded that in order to raise the index of human development in the country, it is necessary to pay more attention to the mentioned variables

The main purpose of this survey was to Factors influencing Entrepreneurs tends to Electronic Communities.The research method of the study was analytical- explanatory research. This survey research examines the role of factors among 335 entrepreneurs who have Join the social network. A questionnaire was used to collect the data. A pilot study was conducted to establish reliability of the instrument. Cronbach alpha's coefficient for the main sector of questionnaire was 0.89.This study was conducted using questionnaire survey and four hypotheses for the study was considered after reading various theories in various areas of communication and sociology which all were confirmed after completing the questionnaire and statistical tests. It was found at the end that factors such as access to the Internet, the amount of social interaction, the tendency to social groups, and levels of social trust influence the Entrepreneurs’ tendency to virtual social networks.